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Solar/PVroundtable

ROUNDTABLE

The most talked-about feature in PES returns, with a fresh selection of questions for the industry’s most incisive and intelligent commentators. Their approaches may differ, but rest assured that you’re getting the very best analysis that the industry can provide.

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PES: Do you think we will see a time when energy produced by solar/PV becomes a major export for Europe’s sun-blessed countries?

Paul Brody: Yes, I believe that will be possible. Cross-border power generation and sales are already standard practices in the utility industry and solar are likely to be no exception. There is certain to be challenges unique to solar including the fact that output cannot be guaranteed.

Additionally, Feed-in Tariffs which have often been very generous to consumers are usually backed with state guarantees or direct or indirect subsidies. That will not easily be applied to cross border outputs.

Given the fact that solar energy as of today represents a relatively small share, the priority will likely be consumption within the home country fi rst and export only once a threshold of solar in the mix has been reached. Initiatives like Desertec, for example, will of course be a completely different situation – as its primary goal is to export.

Isabel Boira-Segarra: The potential for solar energy is signifi cant both across Europe and on a wider global level. The stability of the regulatory environment coupled with cost reductions associated with economies of scale and learning, will be crucial in determining how quickly it takes off.

Currently there are a number of countries in Europe with some type of Feed-in Tariff mechanism to incentivise investment in solar as it still remains too expensive to deploy on a large-scale basis without fi nancial support. Solar PV has great potential across Europe as a form of renewable generation which

is consumed at the point of demand and is integrated within the fabric of the built environment. In Europe’s sunniest countries where there is also enough land to install ground-mounted farms, it can be deployed at a signifi cantly larger scale, making exports more feasible.

Places like North Africa have the greatest potential for exporting solar energy as solar irradiation is high, land is more readily available and local demand is lower. Within Europe, it is possible to export ‘know-how’ and markets like Spain and Germany are already exporting knowledge on how to develop and implement solar projects. This is likely to continue further in the coming years bringing associated economic benefi ts to those economies.

John Meadows: The grid is actually the bottleneck. Spain for example, with its huge potential for solar energy, is essentially an island when it comes to energy with hardly any connection to the rest of Europe. This situation therefore needs to be looked at more closely at the European level, and grid expansion across borders needs to be encouraged. The good news is that politicians have recognised this problem and fi rst actions are being taken, there is, however still a long way to go.

Andreas Weisheit: The solar industry has been able to grow to the size where it is today thanks to subsidies and Feed-in Tarifs. In the long run it needs to become self sustainable and to reach grid parity. In regions with high sun radiation such as Italy this will be reached soon, while it will take longer for Germany which is the largest market for solar modules today. Eventually, both industry and governments will need to consider how the available subsidies will be used in the optimum way.

Solar power plants can work more effi ciently in regions with greater sunlight. So it would be more economical to use part of the subsidies from central European countries to build solar power plants in Southern Europe. This can contribute to the target to increase the share of renewable energy, and make better use of the taxpayer’s money. German fi nance minister Schaeuble has suggested recently to build solar power plants in Greece and to import clean electricity. I think this is a trend that we will see more in the future

PES: Do you feel there is still some way to go in PV being taken seriously by consumers and legislators as a viable source of energy?

Paul Brody: We believe the market is maturing and the PV providers are maturing as well. A tipping point is near. As quoted in the recently published EPIA report ‘Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics till 2015’, in 2010 in Europe alone PV was leading the renewable energy sector with 13.3 GW installed, and was second only to gas power

BETTINA WEISS Executive Director, PV Group, SEMI

PAUL BRODYGlobal Electronics Industry Leader, IBM Global Business Services

ISABEL BOIRA-SEGARRASector Leader for Renewables, Europe, EC Harris

BRUCE CROSSManaging Director, GB-Sol

JOHN MEADOWS Managing Director, SCHOTT Solar UK

ANDREAS WEISHEITGlobal Flat Panel Display/Solar and Asia Market Development, Linde Electronics

Contributors

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“Within Europe, it is possible to export ‘know-how’, and markets like Spain and Germany are already exporting knowledge on how to develop and implement solar projects”

Isabel Boira-Segarra

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plants which had 18 to 20 GW installations. In Spain and Germany, average contribution from PV to electricity generation is more than two per cent of the total on average per year.

However in many cases today, PV remains more expensive than conventional electricity production methods. With the industry progressing towards grid parity supported by government incentives and schemes, competitiveness of PV with other energy sources will be achieved in around 5 years in several countries, according to EPIA (European Photovoltaic Industry Association). Just as with hybrid or electric cars, the success of the Prius and the Tesla sports car changed market perception and started a stampede towards these new products.

The same can apply to solar now even more, especially as some European countries have decided to exit their nuclear power strategy or not to enter into it. Also the nuclear power future for Japan is under debate. All of this will result in a stronger need for renewable energies of which PV is going to be an essential element.

Bettina Weiss: I believe the level of renewable energy adoption by consumers and the general public has a long way to go. Most consumers are not familiar with purchasing energy, so it’s a learning process. In Europe, public mindset was sensitised in the 1980s with fairly sophisticated recycling programs in small communities.

I remember even back then separating glass, paper, even aluminum yogurt lids. This early awareness has certainly contributed to the European embrace of solar energy in particular, which culminated in one of the strongest and fastest growing markets this industry has seen. In other parts of the world, even in many industrialised countries like the US, a lot of work remains to be done.

With electricity not outrageously expensive and with many jobs in central and Southern US depending on oil and coal, legislators there are still very reluctant to make the shift from fossil fuels to renewables. In rapidly developing countries like India, though, where 400 million people are without ready access to electricity and where an ambitious national solar roadmap is beginning to take hold, solar can make a huge difference in lifting them out of poverty and isolation.

Isabel Boira-Segarra: This depends on which country you consider – in markets like Germany PV is already widely recognised by both consumers and legislators as providing a valuable contribution to the country’s overall energy mix.

The regulatory uncertainty created in Spain where they retrospectively amended the Feed-in Tariffs, destabilises the market and undermines the long-term certainty investors require to support renewable projects. In other markets like the UK a greater level of convincing is needed due in no small part to scepticism around whether the UK climate is really suitable for solar energy.

To counteract this issue the industry needs to educate consumers on the benefits of PV particularly when solar panels are integrated within the built environment. This ability to generate energy on the point of demand can help consumers significantly reduce their energy bills and is a factor that helps to differentiate solar from other larger scale renewables such as marine energy.

John Meadows: Essentially, there has been a consensus for some time that the future of our energy supply lies in renewable energy sources. The only aspect that was and still is being discussed today is how quickly the shift over to renewable energy should take place and how much this will cost. Today, renewable energy sources in general and solar energy in particular already play an important role in the energy mix in many

countries. Considering the move towards a non-nuclear policy that we are seeing, renewables are growing in popularity much more quickly than we would have expected only a couple of years ago.

Andreas Weisheit: The solar industry is a billion dollar industry today and projected to become a 100 billion dollar industry very soon. It is a substantial contributor to the economy today and recognised as such. In order to be a viable source for energy in the long term, it needs to reach grid parity. New investments along the value chain that we see happening today will help to advance on the learning curve and bring costs down, and competition will drive down prices and make solar energy affordable.

PES: How do you feel about large, conventional energy suppliers jumping on the solar/PV ‘bandwagon’? Is it a cynical move or does it present an opportunity?

Paul Brody: A big opportunity. The jury is out on whether the bulk of solar will come from big providers operating industrial-scale plants or a highly distributed model. This move will offer opportunities for the utilities, as they will have to adapt their business models transforming into new generation utilities than can take up important tasks in the future electricity grids as aggregators, facilitators and network service providers.

The addition of conventional sellers will add capacity, scale, and depth to the industry and that can only be good. Not only conventional energy suppliers, but also some key oil and gas companies have already embarked on the PV opportunity.

Additionally, Total recently announced it is acquiring a stake in SunPower Corporation and Dow Chemical, a diversified petrochemicals company, has also ventured into solar energy as Dow Solar and recently confirmed the construction of its new manufacturing facility for producing solar shingles.

Many countries are now moving towards decentralised electricity generation. The decentralised model will however depend on the availability of various technologies to manage large penetrations of PV. These may include batteries peak load shaving (demand-side management), mixing and balancing different sources of renewable energy through enhancement of interconnections between countries and local grid management through smarter grids.

Bettina Weiss: No, I don’t think it’s a cynical move – it’s a very necessary one to stay relevant. I remember talking to a GE executive a number of years ago, who told me back then that Shell was looking at “all

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“In rapidly developing countries like India, though, where 400 million people are without ready access to electricity and where an ambitious national solar roadmap is beginning to take hold, solar can make a huge difference in lifting them out of poverty and isolation”

Bettina Weiss

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renewables across the board”. Fast forward to PrimeStar Solar… Diversification is just a smart thing to do.

John Meadows: The more parties who get involved in solar PV the better. One should not forget that large conventional energy producers tend to operate centralised power stations. It is actually decentralisation that makes PV so wonderful. PV installations are usually built relatively close to where the power is consumed, this offers advantages because it is consumed where it is generated, which in turn, means lower transmission and transformer related losses and less dependence on imports.

Furthermore, this provides greater support for the local economy, due to the fact that value is created directly at the location e.g. work for skilled craftsmen, etc. Generally speaking, decentralised power operations promote diversity with respect to the participants involved and a greater level of competition over prices and innovations.

Andreas Weisheit: I don’t think it is a cynical move. Large energy companies are driven by economics and normally can’t afford to make cynical decisions. They understand that solar has great support within the public and government spheres. They can either accept to give up market share to new players, or to participate in solar. That’s why we see more engagement.

PES: Given the current economic climate, how stable is the financial environment for solar/PV development?

Paul Brody: Direct and indirect subsidies remain key incentives for solar sales around the world. Given budget pressures, those subsidies are likely to come under increased pressure in the coming years. Removing them entirely could set the industry back substantially, so finding a way to gradually transition away from big incentives or slow the pay-out without reducing the consumer ROI will be important.

Solar can pay for itself even for consumer installations – but finding the right way to market this to consumers will be a challenge. PV companies need to think about the business model they have – marketing, sales, and financing – to maintain the attractiveness of the investment. Recent studies showing that home values rise with the installation of PV could be critical in unlocking financing and consumer interest in some countries.

Successful PV vendors will need to develop sophisticated finance offerings to attract industrial customers wanting to avail themselves of the long-term economic benefits of PV solar but who cannot free up large amounts of capital for such

a long-term payback. Project finance is now the most critical element of the development process for PV systems. The banks providing this financing have become more involved in system design and vendor and product selection. In an effort to manage risk, many banks have now established approved vendor lists (AVLs). They will demand a higher yield on loans for projects involving unproven vendors or unproven technologies.

Bruce Cross: The financial environment is generally unstable, and has huge national variations around Europe. However there are intractable drivers that encourage the implementation of PV: the EU targets for renewable power generation, and carbon reduction commitments by national governments. Conversely, the mechanisms to achieve this are weak due to both constraints in the capital markets and uncertainties about financial returns since they are primarily government driven.

Isabel Boira-Segarra: Currently the PV sector is dependent on subsidies so unsurprisingly, in those markets where there are no subsides you tend to find low deployment of PV solutions. In the current environment there is widespread interest in solar but the difficult economic conditions mean that investors are reticent unless there are attractive Feed-in Tariffs in place and commitment from legislative bodies that these subsidies will not be subject to change.

In markets like Spain and the Czech Republic, retrospective alterations to tariffs eroded investor confidence as they were no longer guaranteed a secure return on their investment. Significant progress has been made lowering the costs of PV and these efforts need to continue in order for the industry to reach levels where initial capital expenditure outlay decreases further and it can eventually compete without subsidies.

Andreas Weisheit: The global solar market is changing from developed markets that are driven by subsidies and FiTs, to emerging markets that are driven by energy needs and grid parity. For these new markets financial support does not have priority anymore. Developed markets like Germany and Italy will shrink in the coming years – down to a level that is accepted and supported by the governments. In Germany for example the government targets three to four GW installations of solar modules per year. New installations were 7.4 GW in 2010 and will also exceed targets in 2011. So a reduction is mandatory.

PES: With increasing numbers of emerging manufacturers across Europe,

is there a concern – given the scope of variability in quality and efficiency in PV modules – over regulation and quality standards and the reputation of the industry?

Paul Brody: Depends on what you consider as emerging suppliers. I believe we have a strong European basis of very mature suppliers that are successful on a global basis. Quality and efficiency of PV modules is mostly driven by the underlying PV equipment technology and the effort of the manufacturers to further develop on this basis. Manufacturers in the main geographies like Europe, Asia or Americas have access to the same PV equipment technology. So this is no differentiator.

What differentiates is each manufacturer’s effort to push the borders of efficiencies and cost per Watt peak. And also here Europe has a strong history with a close collaboration between industry, research institutes and academia. Considering the typical cost disadvantage of European manufactured products it is imperative for those players to differentiate through lower degradation or improved serviceability over their Asian competitors. Almost like a premium brand strategy. So regulation and quality standards can only help European players.

Bettina Weiss: Yes, there is certainly concern with respect to module reliability and quality as well as the associated warranty for solar systems. Consumers would benefit from a harmonised approach to defining and implementing standards that give them easy-to-understand ways of comparing solar systems, understanding the degradation of efficiency over time, amortisation and other aspects that will help them make informed decisions. We are part

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“Considering the move towards a non-nuclear policy that we are seeing, renewables are growing in popularity much more quickly than we would have expected only a couple of years ago”

John Meadows

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of a dialogue among research institutes and industry that attempts to tackle these questions and develop supporting standards and guidelines that would drive adoption and at the same time avoid cheap, unreliable modules flooding the market. Transparency and consumer protection are key.

John Meadows: Quality is an extremely important issue, PV systems must show performance stability and longer service lives, even under the most severe climatic conditions. Only then will it be possible to generate high yields for long periods of time.

To us, the standards of the IEC are not strict enough. So SCHOTT Solar has committed itself to developing appropriate standards and helping the respective organisations to develop tests. Something that can serve as a good example is the TÜV Rheinland’s the 2010 Energy Yield Test. Thanks to new software, a completely shadow free test roof and highly precise measuring equipment, TÜV Rheinland was able to raise the test to an entirely new level.

In this test, SCHOTT Solar AG was awarded first place for its SCHOTT PERFORM POLY 225 photovoltaic module that proved especially powerful in comparison to the 12 other modules from various manufacturers which were also evaluated

Andreas Weisheit: There are more than 300 manufacturers active in the area of solar cells and solar modules globally, most of them in China. As the industry matures, there will be a consolidation. Only the quality and cost leaders will survive. There might be a quality concern in the short term, but already today tier one manufacturers have more than 20GW installed capacity – enough to cover the demand. Low quality standard will not be accepted by the market and will disappear quickly.

PES: As new Eastern European markets develop, can they learn from Western Europe to faster/better adopt solar/PV?

Isabel Boira-Segarra: Like any other industry new players in the solar market can

learn a lot from early adopters. In the case of PV technology, Germany for example, is one of the largest markets in Europe and is particularly well placed to export their technical and commercial expertise to some of their neighbouring countries in Eastern Europe.

These new markets need to focus on developing a stable regulatory framework right from the very outset and establishing a level of support that kick starts the industry but avoids overheating the market thus providing an adequate climate for investment. As developers start to turn their attention East, investors will inevitably follow so if these countries are to capitalise on this interest they will need to ensure that they have the market conditions in place to attract the upfront capital investment needed to get the solar industry up and running.

John Meadows: They are certainly benefiting from how prices have been developing recently, also the German Feed-in Tariff model provides an excellent example to follow.

The German Renewable Energy Act “EEG” is widely recognised as being the most successful political tool for promoting renewable energies. A report from the EU Commission confirms that the EEG is both the most effective and least expensive way of increasing the share of renewable energy in the total energy mix.

Andreas Weisheit: The key prerequisites are, firstly, FiTs with clear regulations at what conditions solar electricity will be fed into the grid. Even at grid parity such regulations will be required – at wholesale electricity prices. Second is a transparent process for approving solar installations to get access to the grid. Countries like Greece could not grow quickly even with an FiT in place, as the process of approval was complicated and lengthy. Third is a grid that can absorb solar power readily. Not so much a concern in the early stages, but important when solar power

starts to contribute to a significant share of total electricity generation. Fourth is infrastructure of supporting industry such as project developers and installers.

PES: Over the next five years, what increases in the efficiency of PV technologies can we realistically expect?

Bruce Cross: PV has been developing by continuous improvements for decades. It seems likely that these incremental steps will continue, giving one or two percentage points improvement. Large jumps in output only come with significant changes, and the long warranties given with PV modules restrict the pace of uptake of new materials and processes.

Andreas Weisheit: Five years is difficult to foresee. I will try on a two-three year horizon. Crystalline silicon should be able to reach more than 16 per cent efficiency for multi-crystalline and ~18 per cent for mono-crystalline technology, on a module basis and in mass production. That is 20 per cent (relative) higher than today’s levels. Besides higher efficiency there will be very high focus on costs – in particular on polysilicon.

For Cadmium Telluride the dominant leader target 14 per cent efficiency in 2014. Thin-film silicon is just below 10 per cent today and target >11 per cent with through improved light adsorption. Industry leader Oerlikon have launched a product that offers 10 per cent efficiency and 0.50 Eur/Wp cost today. CIGS is the wildcard - while it offers efficiency beyond 15 per cent in the lab, companies have not been able to transfer this into mass production until today.

PES: Following the announcement of a joint EU-Japan project to develop high efficiency concentrator solar/PV cells, do you expect to see more of these international collaborations?

Paul Brody: Developing superior PV technologies and manufacturing facilities that scale is a capital intensive business. For many companies, the only way to stay competitive will be through collaboration. Innovation these days is mostly coming from collaboration amongst various parties – the days when innovation happened behind locked doors are gone. For example we are working with Solar Frontier on joint PV research program.

So the industry is more and more getting into this mode of working which is a very good sign. In our semiconductor business at IBM, we have assembled a global alliance of technology companies to jointly invest in and develop the latest generation of semiconductor systems. This method is challenging to run, but it has allowed us to stay at the forefront of the industry despite

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“There might be a quality concern in the short term, but already today tier one manufacturers have more than 20GW installed capacity – enough to cover the demand. Low quality standards will not be accepted by the market and will disappear quickly”

Andreas Weisheit

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the fact that R&D costs and build costs for new factories are running into the billions of dollars.

We see a similar challenge in solar. The key will be the business model maturity of the players participating. It takes a sophisticated approach to R&D, capital spending and intellectual property management to make global R&D and manufacturing alliances work.

Bettina Weiss: At SEMI, we are seeing it already. We are supporting a SEMI Special Interest Group – the Crystalline Silicon Manufacturers Group or CTM – in their efforts to develop a c-Si PV technology roadmap. We are actively engaged with the newly formed, SEMATECH and CNSE-led PV Manufacturing Consortium in the U.S., and I wouldn’t be surprised if Asian manufacturers saw the benefits of a collaborative effort very soon as well. There are clear advantages to be gained by finding areas that benefit from collaboration – manufacturing cost drivers, process efficiency, silicon wafer parameters, materials requirements, etc. These efforts appear to be strongest when bringing government, industry and research to the table around clearly defined goals.

John Meadows: There are actually two ways to make PV more competitive, firstly reducing the manufacturing costs and secondly increasing module efficiency.

This calls for intensive research efforts, there are already many initiatives at both the national and international level and we certainly hope this trend will continue.

Andreas Weisheit: The solar industry is already a global industry today. Leaders like First Solar manufacture in the US, Germany and Malaysia and are extending their base. In the future we will see more collaboration where R&D is undertaken in developed countries, and directly transferred to plants in China, Taiwan and Korea.

PES: How are supplemental solar/PV technologies and practices helping in easing the concerns of investors in these tough economic times?

Paul Brody: The important word here is “investors.” I believe everything that improves the return on investment from renewable energy sources is appreciated. Today most PV installations are pretty simple in nature. No adaptation to surrounding conditions is the current norm. However, there are technologies in the making or already out there, which help to actively manage PV performance. I can refer to the IBM 7HV technology which is a power management chip that helps to improve PV output by up to 15 per cent.

Defect monitoring with proactive alerts to field service technicians and automated spare parts delivery are available as a technology in neighbouring markets but are not used today in PV. Or look at highly granular weather forecast for cloud movements and so on – this is all available as of today but at the end of the day it needs a brave first-mover in the industry to adapt technologies like this. And while scaling up such solutions they will become much cheaper and will certainly help to elevate today’s PV business cases.

Isabel Boira-Segarra: Practices such as defect monitoring and viability studies play an increasingly important role especially when it comes to increasing the certainty of performance from PV solutions on small-scale schemes where there may not be a dedicated resource to monitor performance. In larger systems improving efficiency and increasing productivity are critical in maximising returns.

Big players are more attuned to this issue and are leading the way in helping to demonstrate the return solar technology can deliver to the balance sheet. At a time when PV solutions are increasingly competing with other sectors for limited levels of funding this ability to demonstrate financial return will be increasingly important when it comes to winning the hearts and minds of the investor community across the globe.

PES: After the FiT cuts in the UK for medium/large installations, should there be greater incentives and initiatives for the private installer to redress the balance?

Bruce Cross: The UK FiT has suffered a loss of confidence by the investment community. The tariff for small domestic installations makes a good case as an investment already – the difficulty is that the public lack trust in the government not to change their minds again. They feel that there is a chance that their income stream will be retrospectively cut in some years time, and their investment return might be compromised. These reservations are shared by the small business community who might be investing in sub-50kW systems. A positive marketing campaign by the government might resolve these concerns.

Isabel Boira-Segarra: The UK government could argue that their recent decision to prioritise very small scale solar schemes by redirecting the available funding away from larger schemes is clear evidence of their commitment to small private installers.

Nevertheless, funding through the FiTs only becomes available once solar panels are operational. Small private installers such as

the general public, still face the challenge of raising the initial capital that is required to buy and install a PV system. They may choose to opt for a ‘free electricity’ arrangement whereby they do not fund the equipment and in return they forego the revenue generated by the FiT. But to increase the uptake of PV at the private domestic level, it is necessary to effect institutional change that extends beyond policymakers and encompasses banks and other financial institutions.

If it was easier to access funding then the level of interest from this market segment would grow, particularly if it was combined with a well-thought out educational programme demonstrating the benefits and dispelling some of the fears associated with this technology.

PES: Will Europe ever be able to match the proposed massive-scale PV plants of the US and China?

Paul Brody: Yes, it is possible. This is particularly true if we see the entry of major utilities into high volume, mega-scale projects. In fact, according to EPIA in 2010, Germany was leading in global PV space with 7.4GW installed and a national target of 51 GW by 2020. With lowest system prices and FiTs also amongst the lowest (average of 0.26Eur/kWh produced), Germany continues to attract investors. In order to remain competitive, however, European companies need to build captive demand sales pipeline with the utility and independent power producer firms.

The EPIA also indicates that at least 50-55 per cent of the total value of the PV system is created close to the end market, of which 80 per cent was located in the EU countries in 2010. At present, while a large number (50 per cent) of c-Si type of

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“Large jumps in output only come with significant changes, and the long warranties given with PV modules restrict the pace of uptake of new materials and processes”

Bruce Cross

Roundtable.indd 17 15/08/2011 15:40

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PV modules are assembled in China, most of the Thin-Film manufacturing plants are located in other parts of the world, leaders being the EU, USA, Japan and Malaysia.

Another fact that will help to massive scale up PV plants in Europe could be the geographical advantages Southern Europe is offering. Spain as one example has a vast amount of less-populated areas representing one of the most arid and sun-rich areas in Europe. As grid technology is improving and grid parity getting closer, this will give Europe all the chances to massive-scale up faster PV plants.

Isabel Boira-Segarra: The US and China have a massive advantage over Europe when it comes to building their solar industry simply because on a purely physical level they have much more land in which to build large-scale plants. Solar panels are typically ground or roof mounted and are land intensive so countries like the UK are at a significant disadvantage compared to places like China or the US. Furthermore, the regulatory environment has a major influence on how quickly the solar industry can develop and history suggests that it is easier to push these schemes through in places like China where there is less protocol to follow and less attention paid to public reaction. In some European markets where there has been an appetite to increase the focus on PV, regulatory challenges can act as an impediment to the progress of the industry.

Andreas Weisheit: US and China have higher energy demand and areas with higher sun irradiation than Europe. Under grid parity conditions we expect to see the largest PV power plants in these countries. Another region of interest is the Middle East. Whilst this is a location with abundance sunshine, grid parity is difficult to achieve because electricity is subsidised and very cheap. Governments recognise that they can save and optimise resources when they sell their oil and gas at the

market, rather than firing it. There is a huge opportunity for solar in these territories.

PES: There have been efforts made by associations and consortiums to reduce the administrative barriers to PV implementation. To what extent is it the industry’s responsibility to influence policy making?

Paul Brody: Regulatory obstacles, small and large, make a big impact. It can be as simple as getting municipalities to change rules on trimming trees to facilitate sunlight on the roof. It can also be as complex as managing inter-state and country connections in the electrical grid. Receptivity to helping PV systems get deployed is high in governments around the world. If the industry invests in lobbying for administrative improvements, it will find supportive and helpful regulators. Streamlining administrative procedures and reducing the lead times will help keeping project costs down and avoiding unnecessary high levels of FiTs.

Bettina Weiss: SEMI’s mission as a global industry association is to remove barriers, be they administrative, trade-related or around innovative technology development. Through our International Standards Program, for example, we have been able to provide the industries we serve a platform to collectively address non- or pre-competitive challenges. This in turn gives them the time to focus on true innovation and differentiation. However, we do think that the industry – the entire supply chain ecosystem, actually – has the biggest pull when it comes to implementing favorable legislation that bolsters renewable energy generation and deployment. Industry stakeholders are the ones who will create new jobs and strengthen the standing of a domestic market. That’s a language government officials understand.

Bruce Cross: It is certainly in the industry’s interest to influence policy, but to best

achieve this, the industry needs to build common campaigns with end-consumer organisations. By working with the customer, the joint voice will have greater credibility with political bodies.

Andreas Weisheit: There remains work to be done to educate policy makers about the benefits and opportunities of solar. The solar industry will benefit from the resulting market growth, so it is its interest to invest in the education and influencing of policy makers.

PES: There was a time when there was a green jobs shortage. Has the market now matured enough to address this?

Paul Brody: Yes, we think so. The perception of green jobs has not only increased in the Industry but also in the population. Countries like Germany are one of the leading examples.

According to the German Association of Renewable Energies, they have today about 220,000 employees in this sector and are predicting a demand in 2020 of about 500,000 employees. According to EPIA, on average, 30 full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs are created for each MW of solar power modules produced and installed. The figure for employment takes into account the whole PV value-chain including research centres, installers, and producers of silicon, wafers, cells, modules and other components. Over 3.5 million people could be employed in the PV sector in 2030.

Obviously this is going to be a big opportunity for young people to embark in this ‘green’ journey and to seek their chance in this type of emerging renewable energy markets. As markets are maturing this also represent an opportunity for industry solution and service providers like IBM. In the end this is going to be a ‘war for talents’ where the most agile and most attractive are going to take a higher share.

John Meadows: The market has certainly matured. Due to the fact that the solar industry hasn’t been around for that long, most of the jobs are still held by people who come from other industries.

However as the market develops there is an increased level of training and education available to encourage graduates and engineers to consider this sector for employment. In any case, cleantech is a fast growing sector, and we won’t be complaining about a shortage of green jobs in the foreseeable future.

Andreas Weisheit: There is currently a shortage of solar specialists in areas of high growth like in China. It will take some time till this is overcome. On the other hand the current situation of oversupply

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“Regulatory obstacles, small and large, make a big impact. It can be as simple as getting municipalities to change rules on trimming trees to facilitate sunlight on the roof”

Paul Brody

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will lead to consolidation and possibly to a more balanced situation. When the industry matures and moves to growth rates of 20 per cent or below (from >100 per cent in 2010), the infrastructure for education and training should be able to match that growth.

PES: Do you feel there is enough support at the skills development and educational level to equip the next generation with the tools they need to work in, and continue to develop, the PV industry?

Paul Brody: PV will provide for increased number of jobs in the future, however this will have to be supported by adequate skills and appropriate education. Some of the most relevant qualifications across the PV value chain are:

• Solar module production: a background in chemistry, physics and specialisation in PV

• PV system integration: technicians and engineers for mounting of systems along with highly skilled staff for management, contracting, design and marketing

• Installation: certified installers; ideally electricians, plumbers, roofers and other construction workers will have to develop specialised knowledge on PV installations

• Recycling of PV modules: qualified and trained in chemistry, physics with understanding of recycling issues and technology

* R&D: experienced scientists and engineers with a high specialisation in PV

Particularly of importance will be early practical training in PV, project oriented education, and external trainings in the industry.

Isabel Boira-Segarra: If the industry does grow as expected there will be a need for a greater number of qualified people who can install and maintain solar panels. There are already some existing professional training qualifications although as demand rises there will be room to complement these further. This gap can be filled from other areas within the construction industry such as roofing, electrical or assembly work where the skills required are broadly transferable.

Higher level skills are necessary in the manufacture of PV cells and panels and in the design of PV systems. The former can to some extent be transferred from the electronic industry whereas the latter skills are more specific. In order to meet expected growth, there will be a need for a global workforce that is educated on these specialist areas. In the UK and across Europe there are already several universities who offer specific MA degrees in

PES would like to thank all our roundtable contributors. For more information,

please visit their respective websites:

Bettina Weiss Executive Director, PV Group, SEMI

www.semi.org

Paul Brody Global Electronics Industry Leader,

IBM Global Business Services www.ibm.com/gbs

Isabel Boira-Segarra Sector Leader for Renewables, Europe,

EC Harris www.echarris.com

Bruce Cross Managing Director, GB-Sol

www.gb-sol.co.uk

John Meadows Managing Director, SCHOTT Solar UK

www.schott.com/uk/english/

Andreas Weisheit Global Flat Panel Display/Solar and Asia Market Development, Linde Electronics

www.linde-gas.com/electronics

Opinion makers and idealists wanted!

Would you like to sit on the next roundtable? We’re currently looking for contributors and would welcome applications. Please contact the editor, Simeon de la Torre, at sim@pes.eu.com for details.

renewables but this will need to be ramped up over the coming years to help service a growing demand

John Meadows: We are quite confident that this is the case, nevertheless as I mentioned earlier, many of our highly skilled employees actually developed their skills in other fields, such as the semiconductor, chemical or automotive industry, for instance.

Today, we are receiving more and more applications from highly motivated individuals who are driven to protect the environment by working in the solar industry.

Andreas Weisheit: As previously mentioned, currently there is a shortage of specialists and the market will continue to grow at a much higher rate than other markets. Investments are made at educational level, and the industry needs at the minimum to maintain that momentum.

PES: With the visual impact and effect on local environments still a barrier to the implementation of large scale PV plants, is the future in smaller developments serving localised communities?

Bruce Cross: Micro-generation has advantages in lower distribution requirements and the ability to utilise existing infrastructure for mounting and connection, especially when built as part of a new development where it is designed in at the start. Local community support is much greater as the project can be seen as being of direct benefit to those affected.

Andreas Weisheit: There are two market segments where solar can capture a significant share of the energy market in the future. One is large scale power plants in sunny areas, where electricity then needs to be transported through the grid to the area where it is needed. The other is local generation and use. This needs storage technologies however, which are costly to add to solar plants today. I see a larger potential to the large scale PV plants in the future.

Roundtable.indd 19 15/08/2011 15:40