Socio-Economic Aspects of Foresight

UNIDO -Training Course on Technology Foresight for PractitionersPrague, 6-10 Otober 2003

Martin Potůček, CESES, Prague, Czech Republic

Content: Why focusing on Socio-Economic

Aspects of Foresight? Conceptual model of the development

at the national level Priority problems Strategic conceptions Presentation of priority problems and/or

strategic conceptions developed by participants´ teams

The alternative ways of accessing R&D priorities

Science-push approach: needs of knowledge driven by curiosity, vested interests of scientists and research institutions

Science-pull approach: priorities generated by assessed (present and future) needs of economy and society

…experience from the Czech Republic

  C4Preparation

  C3Regulatory

  C2Development

of

  C1Forming of

national

 

B1 SOCIAL COHESION

  for the entrance

  power   constitutional, legal and

  culture,  

B2 KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY

  into EU   of the market,   politicalsystem of the

  national identity

 

B3 LABOR MARKET, EMPLOYMENT AND EMPLOYABILITY

  and full-fledged

  state and civic   country, space for

  and national interests

 

B4 POPULATION DEVELOPMENT, HEALTH, FAMILY AND HOUSING

  membership   sector in mutual

  public participation

  in the context of

 

B5 INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL SAFETY

  in EU   relations   in policy-making

  human values  

B6 ENVIRONMENT, TERRITORIAL POTENTIALS OF DEVELOPMENT

                 

A

Quality and

sustain-ability

of life

B7

Economic development

Conceptual model of the society

Caption:

A – Criteria block B – Developmental potentials C – Formative regulators

General criteria of the development:

Quality of life Sustainability of life Economic development Others: standard of living, peace,

human values, employment, social cohesion, cultural heritage…?

…controversies

Developmental potentialsB1 Social cohesionB2 Knowledge societyB3 Labor market, employment and employabilityB4 Demographic development, health, family, and

housingB5 Internal and external securityB6 Environment, territorial potentials of

development(B7 Economic development) …controversies

Formative regulatorsC1 Forming of national culture, national

identity and national interests in the context of human values

C2 Development of constitutional, legal and political system of the country, space for public participation in policy-making

C3 Tuning regulatory power of market, state and civic sector in mutual relations

C4 Preparation for the entrance into EU and full-fledged membership in EU

Methods of inductive aggregation of socio-economic

priorities

Definition, identification, elaboration and example of priority problems

Definition, identification, elaboration and example of strategic conceptions

… definition, identification, elaboration and example of strategic moves)

Identification of priority problems

Priority problems (PPs) = discrepancies between the present and desirable states of certain conditions of life in economy and society

Definition of the PP What societal tension is in the core of the PP Why PP is really a priority one Location of the PP within the conceptual model Proposal of the (alternative) way(s) of the

solution of PP Potential of R&D to solve the PP

An example of the priority problem

PP: Growing social inequalities induced by different qualifications, experience, use and direct access to the information and communication technologies (ICT)

Potential of R&D to solve the PP: Development of the hardware, software

and communication means that are user-friendly, easily accessible and cheap

Development of educational methods that will ease the mastering of ICTs

Identification of strategic conceptions

Strategic conceptions (SCs) = relatively complex action priorities, e.g. priorities able to solve the entire group of PPs

Definition of the SC PPs which are to be solved by the SC Nature and mechanism(s) of the solution

represented by the SC Elements and steps of the SC Main actors involved in the realization of the SC The specific place of R&D in the realization of

the SC

An example of the strategic conception -

definitionSC: REFORM OF THE PUBLIC SECTORThe public sector has not still undergone a

satisfactory functional transformation from the structure imprinted by the Communist regime. The reform of the public sector as a complex process of political, legislative, administrative and institutional transformations will prepare the ground for the public services which would be provided efficiently, in correspondent quality and would be generally accessible. 

An example of the strategic conception – the

place of R&DSC: REFORM OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR Research on capacities of Public Policy and

Administration dealing with the public interests at central, regional and municipal level

Research on legal framework securing the protection of human rights

Research on the system of public finance compatible with market economy, political democracy, quality and sustainability of life

Sectoral research of public services (health care, education, social services…)

How to match PPs and SCs with R&D priorities

PPs and SCs are able to identify core needs of economy and society.

Some of them can be easily associated with R&D potentials/priorities.

In other cases there are either alternative ways of exploitation of R&D potentials, or there is no potential available

There may be R&D targets without clear impact on covering core needs of economy and society…

There may be unknown and/or unexpected positive and/or negative consequences of R&D

…controversies

ReferencesPotůček, M.: Priority Problems and Strategic Concepts

of the Development if the Czech Republic. In: National Visions and Strategies. Soul, KDI School of Public Policy and Management, OECD & World bank 2003, pp. 193-230

Průvodce krajinou priorit pro Českou republiku. Praha: Gutenberg 2002. (Guide to the Priorities for the Czech Republic, in Czech, a short English summary.)

Travelling in the Czech Future. Praha, Gutenberg 2003. (In Czech, an extended English summary.)

For further references, see the website of the Center for Social and Economic Strategies: http://ceses.cuni.cz