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Transcript of FISTERA Experiences from FISTERA “Foresight on IST in the European Research Area ” FISTERA/IT...
FISTERA http://fistera.jrc.es/
Experiences from FISTERA“Foresight on IST in the European Research Area”
FISTERA/IT Star MeetingPrague, October 22, 2004
C. Pascu, R. Compañó, JC. BurgelmanInstitute for Prospective Tecnological Studies, Sevilla (IPTS)
Joint Research Centre (www.jrc.cec.eu.int)
Foresight as a tool for developing common EU
strategies (in IST)
Setting the scene
• What´s the point? The Context • FISTERA Methodology and approach• Future: Looking beyond ICT
The Context
• EU Lisbon Strategy - The shift to the knowledge based society (“The Union has today set itself a new strategic goal for the next decade: to become the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion”- European Council – Lisbon, March 2000) and eEurope Action Plans
• In this context, ICTs have a central role to play:Critical enabler of productivity growth and innovation Important industry per seSystemic technology (affects/enables social and institutional
changes)
WHY FISTERA
• Contribute to building of an European Research Area in IST research
• Contribute to the open method of coordination by finding common grounds (vision, priorities).
• Bring in societal concerns and societal vision into a hard core technical area (technological)
AIMS (1)
• Bring together (systematic and extensive), actors and insights in national FS exercises on IST in order to provide input to the European Research Programme (FP7 IST)
• Develop the common vision and approach to the IS in an enlarged Europe in 2010 and beyond.
• Involve as much as possible key IST policy makers and players in the EU and at the national level.
• Create a European forum for discussion
Use foresight to get there
• FISTERA Mission: Strengthening a network of researchers and institutions that fosters understanding key factors that will enable Europe to become one of the leading players in crucial ICT areas
• What’s the point: What are Europe’s strengths and weaknesses with
respect to ICT as compared to global competitors?What are the opportunities, threats and challenges
for Europe?What should be done to improve Europe’s position?
AIMS (2)
WHO’s WHO?
• A Thematic Network for prospective activities on Information Society Technologies under the European Research Programme (FP5)
• Started in 2002 - Duration of 3 years• 17 Members• Coordinated by IPTS, part of the European Commission’s DG Joint
Research Centre
FISTERA METHODOLOGY
• Making use of FORESIGHT ¨TOOLBOX¨: – Traditional (e.g. Foresight studies), – “Adapted” (e.g online Delphi ) – New (e.g. “Technology Trajectories” concept) Foresight
tools
• For assessing upcoming technological, social, economic and political issues
Factors
Strengths and Weaknesses
Opportunities, Threats & Challenges
technological-related
Bibliometric analysis of patents and publications; funding
Analysis of trajectories and Disruptions.
Economic
& political
Information from national foresight studies,literature
Online Delphi,workshops with politicians & economists
socio-related literature search online-delphi
Scenario building exercises workshops online-delphi
S&T-based competitiveness . including human factors
Literature search,interviews,workshops; Online-Delphi
Scenario building exercises, workshops
TODAY TOMORROW
Factors
Strengths and Weaknesses Opportunities, Threats and Challenges
technological-related
Bibliometric analysis of patents and publications; funding
Analysis of trajectories and Disruptions.
Economic & political
Information from national foresight studies,literature
Online Delphi,workshops with politicians and economists
socio-related literature search online-delphi
Scenario building exercises workshops online-delphi
S&T-based competitiveness, (incl human factors)
Literature search,interviews,workshops; Online-Delphi
Scenario building exercises, workshopsExample
Reviewing national foresight visions and SWOT
Analyzed FS from 8 EU Member States (Austria, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Hungary, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom)
Aim: Understanding commonalities and differences in the visions on IST
Next phase: 3 post- bubble and post 9/11 on security, convergence and the “new economy”
FINDINGS national FS
Different granularities from technology point of view National visions in line with Lisbon objectives EU not a central dimension (mainly present as part of the national
SWOT analysis) Visions in FS are often need oriented (areas of ‘’public interest``) IST’s are tools to reach social, eco etc. objectives, not and end in
itself
Important points from national FS
Forecasted Technologies are mainly extrapolations of what exists already.
Hype of the day as key trend for tomorrow (difficult to avoid “Zeitgeist” problem , i.e.¨being prisoner of spirit of the times¨ or ¨believing that what is ``hot`` today will remain so in the future¨)- e.g. -e-commerce (2000), security (now)
National FS do not cover the whole chain from technology assessment to societal impact
Parochial nature of FS (ignore happenings in other European countries) - The need for Europe-wide SWOT analysis and assessment of the relative position of each country and Europe´s at a global scale
Limited value for an EU approach (Sum of national FS # a European vision) - The need for a pan European permanent monitoring
Mapping national FS with Technology Trajectories
Information visual
displayD, UK
CommunicationsAT,CZ,D,F,HU,
ES,S,UK
BandwidthAT, D, HU, ES, SE, UK
Human interfacing
CZ, F, D, ES, S, UK
Pin-pointing
-
Data capturing
-
Printing-
StorageUK
ProcessingAT, F, HU
Inforetrieval
SEIndicator for consensus
on promising ICT domains
Applications in the National FS
HealthAT,CZ,FR,DE,HU,SE,UK
TransportAT,CZ,HU,
SE,UK
EntertainmentCZ DE FR HU
SE UK
LearningAT DE HU
SE UK
AgricultureCZ HU
SecurityCZ
Government SE
eCommerceES SE UK
Domotics AT
WorkAT HU SE
UK
Ind
ividu
als
Bu
siness
Public
FISTERA TECHNOLOGY TRAJECTORIES Concept
Overview of potential technology evolution, challenges laying ahead, and potential areas where research investment may be more productive, given the local situation
Investigating clusters of technologies for their functionalities (i.e. what they offer) and then determining applications offered in different environments (e.g. at home)
Top-down analysis and Bottom-up analysis Currently comprising 87 technologies An "early detection system" - monitoring possible technology disruptions,
highlighting technology areas to keep an eye on
Online tool: 4-layer Model – state-of-the-art and perspectives for 2010 and 2020:
Http://fistera.telecomitalialab.com
The FOUR LAYERS MODEL
What is needed
Where should
research be focused?
Showing tech.
alternatives
Evolution over time
Whose business is it?
Where the research
investment
would be more effective?
Related to Information Society Basic vs Aggregate
Technology Is there value in
investing?
What is the social implication?
What are the
concerns?
Is life quality
improving?
Who is benefiting?
Technologies in the National FS
Information visual
displayD, UK
CommunicationsAT,CZ,D,F,HU,
ES,S,UK
BandwidthAT, D, HU, ES, SE, UK
Human interfacing
CZ, F, D, ES, S, UK
Pin-pointing
-
Data capturing
-
Printing-
StorageUK
ProcessingAT, F, HU
Inforetrieval
SE
FISTERA:Key factors
ECONOMICALSOCIAL
TECHNOLOGICAL
POLITICAL
- Ageing & eHealth- Cultural Pluralism- Community learning - Ethics- Digital Divide ….
-Mobility - evolution of trade & economic affairs
- Governmental efficiency
- Security
- Miniaturisation - systems integration- Reliability & robustness- content ownership
vs free availability …
Spreading the word
Cross-European debate for building an European Research AreaFace-to-face vs Virtual approach
National ¨Roadshow¨ workshops (research community from FISTERA
Member´countries)
¨Targeted¨ meetings: Commission’s staff, R&D Nat Directors, Politicians (European
Parliament’s EPTA),Industry
Thematic meetings: Enlargement countries, Human Resources in IST,
Trends, Challenge and Drivers
Others: IST Days, DGINFSO meetings, ISTAG, academic & policy conferences, etc
Email alert: 600 people
Web: ~300.000 hits
¨Thematic” Online Delphis (e.g. IST
Applications)
Technology Trajectories:
Online !!
FutureLooking beyond ICT
• Technology trends and Visions towards KS
Convergence with bio, nano, cogno technologies• How Europe looks at iself ? Post-bubble, post-9/11
Foresights
• All public available knowledge http://fistera.jrc.es
• Use the site to comment and enrich debate
• Contact
R. Compañó [email protected]
C. Pascu [email protected]
J.C. Burgelmanjean-claude.burgelman@ cec.eu.int
FISTERA and network effects