Society Transition Through Peak Industrialisation

8/21/2019 Society Transition Through Peak Industrialisation

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/society-transition-through-peak-industrialisation 1/142

Dr Simon Michaux



Summary

• Current industrial network

• Peak industrialisation and the coming transformation

• Fragmentation of the current single paradigm into three parallel

paradigms

1. Increasing irrational and extreme defence of the current system to maintain the

Status Quo

2. Development of a self-sufficient community to meet fundamental needs.

3. Development of new society against a new set of paradigms. This will meantransforming the existing industrial technology grid into something else. This will

take decades of hard work

• An attempt to show how all three paradigms will interact over

time



The writing on the wall

• Everything we need/want to operate is drawn from non-renewable natural resources in a finite system

• Most of those natural resources are depleting or will soon

• Demand for everything we need/want is expanding fast

• When these trends meet, there will come a point where how

we do things will fundamentally change

• None of these issues can be seen in isolation.



• Each corporate chain

• Government division• Social structures

Current Network System

• Fragile

• Isolationist in form

• Utterly dependant utilities and

institutions to function

• Modus Operandi structured in

context of reliablecommunications grid and ease

of transport over long distances

Unbalanced, High energy,High tech, Unsustainable

Inputs

Inputs

Inputs

Inputs

Output(Inputs to another system)



Current Network System

Conceptual Current Paradigm



The Current Industrial Network

Manufacture of

Goods

Industrial

Agriculture

Mining of Raw

Materials

‘Just In Time’

Supply Grid

Retail

Manufacture of

Structural Materials

Construction of

Infrastructure

Iron

Ore

Copper

Gold

Zinc

Nickel

Oil

Gas

Uranium

Coal

Energy

Fertiliser

Pesticides

Herbicides

Plastics

Steel

Aluminium

Cement

Industrial

Chemicals

Finance

Contingent on a stable

climate and unchanging

environment



48% Decrease in Multifactor Productivity

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

I n d e x e d 2 0 0 0 - 0 1 = 1 0 0

Topp et al. (2008) Australian Bureau of Statistics (2012)



Conventional mining practice is struggling to remaineconomically viable

Ore Grades Are Decreasing



Driven by increasing demand

Production is Increasing



Total Mining costs have also risen

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

Total Income

Total Expenses

ABS 1350.0 Financial Markets - Long termhttp://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/DetailsP age/1350.0Jul%202012?OpenDocument

ABARES - Australian Mineral Statistics March 2011

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/DetailsPage/1350.0Jul%202012?OpenDocument





Metal Price Cost (Indexed to the year 2000)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

R e a l P r i c e

I n d e x e d 2 0 0 0 - 0 1

= 1 0 0

Au Cu

Pb Zn

Ag Ni

Al Fe Ore

Year 2008(GFC)

M

i n i n g c r a s h

ABS 1350.0 Financial Markets - Long termhttp://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/DetailsP age/1350.0Jul%202012?OpenDocument

ABARES - Australian Mineral Statistics March 2011






Oil spot price vs. global production-transition point in behaviour Price $50 USD/barrel Price $147 USD/barrel

Peak Conventional Oil Production - 2006

International Energy Agency

http://makewealthhistory.org/2010/11/11/iea-peak-oil-happened-in-2006/

Source: EIA, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Megaprojects, Tony

Erikson “ace” theoildrum.com

GFC2008

World Crude Oil & Lease Condensate Production,Including Canada Oil Sands



Oil Demand & supply & the GFC

G F C

Oil is the ability to do work



China industrial demand dominated the

rest of the planet

China now dominates manufacturing and resource consumption



Metal Price Cost (Indexed to the year 2000)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

R e a l P r i c e

I n d e x e d 2 0 0 0 - 0 1

= 1 0 0

Au Cu

Pb Zn

Ag Ni

Al Fe Ore

Oil supply became

inelastic

Chinese industrialdemand



Source: Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) 2008

Energy consumption in mining increased 450% in the last 40 years



Case Study: Coal Seam Gas

How will government and corporate culture behave while

managing a needed resource in an era of scarcity?



Coal Seam Gas• CSG projects in Australia have been rushed through the

system and all of them were accepted

• If due process was properly followed, then the majority ofCSG projects would have been rejected

•Private companies and government have colluded together atthe expense of the people on the ground

• Extensive legal and political resources have been applied toensure the continued development of CSG

• Concerns of the people on the ground are the loss of drinkingwater and environmental pollution in the region where theylive and where they earn their livelihood

The charge is that the State Governments (desperate for revenue) have sold

out the public in exchange for a mining royalties revenue stream



Peak Gas

Source: The Energy Bulletin & APSO

In 2011, available gas data was dodgy

Year 2010

Year 2011



US Shale Gas ‘Fracking’ Boom



• Production from shale gas ‘fracked’ wells typically declines 80

to 95% in the first 36 months of operation

• For US shale gas industry to maintain 2013 production rates,

it needs to drill approx. 7200 new wells each year

• CSG in SE Qld is considered less productive than US

unconventional gas plays

US Shale Gas ‘Fracking’ Bust

• How does the EIA get these fantastic future predictions?

– Take the best gas content of the ‘sweet spots’ in each fracking field

– Take the highest recovery rates of the best fracking wells in each fracking

field

– Extend both of these to the entire volume of the fracking gas field

– Sum all fields together, ignore logistical issues and process issues



Peak Gas Year 2018

Zittel, W. et al, Fossil and Nuclear Fuels – the supply outlook Energy Watch Group March 2013

CSG and Shale Gas has pushed this date back from approx. 2010



Peak Coal


Year 2020

This should frighten the hell out of any thinking politician



World supply of fossil fuels and uranium


Peak energy approx. 2017

What happens to democracy and due process when there is not

enough to resources to go around?



Fiat currency meltdown

• Fiat currency meltdown

• Currency devaluation & reset

• Sovereign debt default

• Debt saturation

• Credit freeze

• Hyper-inflation

•Hyper-deflation

• Hyper-stagflation

Until we change how money works, we change nothing at all



World is saturated in debt (1/2/2014)

90% Debt/GDP = Crossing the Rubicon

(Its all good as long as we can continue to expand and no one calls in the debts)



Industrial Procurement Currency Trade Links

Disrupt USA, EU &Japan as places to do

business with

Disrupt $USD as a worldreserve currency

Disrupt China as a worldindustry life support



DecreasingGrade

Sovereign DebtDefault

DecreasingGrind size+

IncreasingDepth+

Peak FossilFuel

+Peak

Mining

CreditFreeze

+ StructuralInflation

+FIAT

CurrencyDevaluation

+Peak

Finance

PeakManufacturing

PeakIndustrialisation

=

=

The End of Materialism

The End of theIndustrial Revolution

Expansion of production needed to stay viable

Expansion of money needed to service debt

The Industrial Big Picture



Systemic environmentaldisruption

Natural raw materialsunavailable for

industrialisation

Energy supplydisrupted then

unavailable

• Reset all FIAT currencies – asset based• Restructure all debt• Need to grow into new system

• Cannot sustain growth• Cannot grow economy system• Change to alternative energy system• Rebuild all infrastructure to meet

requirements of new energy system

• Cannot supply raw materials forconstruction or manufacture at neededrate or volume, if at all

• Need to reassess what is really needed• Mine our rubbish dumps

• Cannot run any existing system forvery long

• Resilience and redundancy requiredon all fronts

• Practical carrying capacity vastly

reduced

Financial

Systemic

Meltdown

P o p u l a t i o n O v e r s h o o t

• Puts pressure on all other sectors except finance• Most people of which have few relevant skills

outside existing paradigm• Wilful ignorance & aggressive apathy



The fate of the current system of industrial

management

This is not the end of industrialization but the end of thecurrent way of doing this.

A new system will be developed through necessity.



When?

• The party is over when demand for something vital outstrips

supply

• Some vital service ceases to function reliably or at all

• The average people en-masse understands that the world

they live in is no longer possible

• And there is no easy solution at hand that allows their life tocontinue in the fashion they have become accustomed to

At which point, its on like Donkey Kong!!!



Civil unrest all over the world (1/2/2014)

Ukraine Jan 2014



Food and civil unrest

Inability to buy food correlates with civil unrest



Food and the price of oil

Source: Adapted from DECPG data.



Industrial agriculture is failing• Petro-chemical fertilisers and herbicides are increasingly less effective,

requiring more each year for the same output

• Every year, 0.3 –0.8% of global arable land (24 billion tons of fertile soil)

disappear/year and is rendered unsuitable for agricultural production

• 52% of the land used for agriculture is moderately or severely affected bysoil degradation

• Arable land loss estimated at 30 to 35 times the historical rate

• In Australia, organic matter humus content has fallen from approx. 5% to

less than 1% (needs to be approx. 20%)

Conventional food sources are in the process of failing



So fix it!

• Individual

• Family or Household

• Town or City

• Nation State

• Functional society basics

• Food / water / sewerage / power

• Secondary order services

• Mechanics / plumbers / etc

• Distribution networks

• Tertiary order services

• Manufacture of parts

• Heavy industrial manufacture

• Mining Industry / supply of rawmaterials and energy



ForcedTransformation

Understandtrue implications

Deterioration andFragmentation

Decay/Collapse

Write-

off/Reset

MountingStress

W e a r e

h e r e

Conquest of

another system

Fundamental Reform

MountingStress

Existential largescale crisis

Existential large

scale crisis

business as usual

Early smallscale crisis

All 5 Stages of Human Grief at all scales

Deterioration andFragmentation

Temporary solution loop

Wherewe are

Where weshould be

Inelastic oilsupply 2005

Peak Total Energy

2017

With 20/20 hindsight

business as usual

Early smallscale crisis

This diagnoses a certain outcome



Society will Break into 3 Paradigm Streams

CurrentParadigm

Paradigm 2 ~Develop a low energy selfsufficient society to meet the hereand now needs like food & water

Paradigm 3 ~Develop a new industrial grid tomeet a new set of requirements

Paradigm 1 ~Defend ‘Status Quo ’ at all costs



Manic Defence of the Status Quo at all costs

IndustrialAgriculture

Oil

Gas

Uranium

Coal

Energy

Fertiliser

Pesticides

Herbicides

Plastics

Finance

‘Bail in’

Asset Confiscation Rationing &

Shortages

New Corp/GovEntity

Continuity of Government

Military

engagements

to secure

assets inresource wars

Phosphate

Fossilized

water

Rare Earth

Elements

Severe Austerity & Poverty

Paradigm 1



Paradigm 1

Paradigm 1

Paradigm 1Paradigm 1

Paradigm 1

Paradigm 1

High risk,Class warfare,Necessity only

Paradigm 1

$



Defend the Status Quo at all costs

• Conquest and theft of wealth to sustain the unstainable

– ‘Bail ins’ on money in public bank accounts

– Confiscation of Superannuation

– Forced foreclosure on debts associated with post crash valuable assets

– Printing of money

• Coercion to get the voting public to accept crushing austerity

• Continuity of Government Protocol’s

• Constant breakdown of major services and the quick papering

over of the breach



Defend the Status Quo at all costs

• Military engagements over natural resources

• Increasingly irrational logic and problem solving from

politicians, as shown by main stream media

• Fire sale of public assets to corporation interests

• Bailout of to ‘big to fail’ banks and big corporations with toxic

assets

• Sale of natural resource deposits to foreign nation states at afraction of their value in exchange for future under the table

deals

• Bread and Circus’s to reassure the public that all is well



Paradigm 1 Defence of Status Quo

Visit to the Zoo…

The known unknowns

The things we know that we

don’t know

The unknown unknowns

The things we don’t know

that we don’t know

The known knowns

The things we know that we

do know



Food Stores• The is a need for storages of supplies, especially food, to buffer against

variability in supply

• If there was a fuel disruption event (a high probability actually considering ourreliance on Middle East crude processed in Singapore) then there would befood shortages within weeks

• Resilience – the capacity to withstand shocks – is very much about buffers in

the system and storage of food/fuel/water is a very important part of that – Most households only have one week of food in the cupboard

– Ideally, one year of food supply stored under CO2 at home

– 3-6 months of long life food on a rationing basis

Buy yourself a learning curve

Australia Liquid Fuel Security: A Report for NMRA Motoring and Services (Feb 2013)

Australia’s estimated stockholdings at point of use



1. Shock or Disbelief

2. Denial

3. Anger

4. Bargaining

5. Guilt

6. Depression

7. Acceptance and

Hope



So who will respond effectively?

• Government will be too overwhelmed to be useful

• Corporate sector won’t be able to function effectively

• The people on the ground have the flexibility and capability to respond,

once they had changed their thinking

• The work required for self sufficiency is too much for most individuals oreven a single family household to be completely self sufficient

• A community of 30-40 households can respond and could be resilientenough to meet these issues

We the people at the grassroots level.As it was always going to be so, it comes down to us.



Electricity Power

• Existing system is very fragile and vulnerable in its current form

• Dependant on delicate parts manufactured far from here

• Delicate electronics need pure sine wave power

– (computers/Digital TV’s)

• Rolling blackouts/brownouts and power spikes will be the norm• As things get more difficult, government will not be able to maintain the

grid to the same standard it does now

• Probable contraction of power grid around major cities and services will

be withdrawn from regional areas

• Most electrical equipment is not made to last and will quickly degrade

• Standalone power systems are now required

• What power is for needs to be completely reassessed



Iron

Ore

Copper

Gold

Zinc

Nickel

Energy

Money

Dynamic and intimate

interaction with environment

with a changing climate

Recycle/Repurpose

The Low Energy Steady State Network

Balanced, Lowenergy, Low tech,

Sustainable Paradigm 2



Solutions in common across historical events

• Be socially flexible – know who to depend on

• Self sufficient at the household property

• Assist in society transformation

• Low profile problem solving

• Growing your own food

• Collect your own drinking water

• Manage your own sewerage sanitisation

• Barter based trade

• Reduce energy needs to bare minimum

• Dispose of rubbish carefully

• Manage your own health needs

• Transport needs cut to bare minimum

• Education of children self managed

• Spend time and serious resources replenishing local environment

– land stewardship



Understand that there are two scales of thinking

that happen simultaneously

1. The self sufficient household property

– How might your current household transform to become resilient to change and

volatility in the coming world?

2. The community need that brings these households together

– How your family might retrain into a ‘useful’ job in this environment and interact with

the community around it in a way that is perceived to be needed?

Think of these in short, medium and long term scales



Washing Machine

Bucket & Wringer

Electric Car (golf car)

Communications

Battery Radio

Computer

Land Line Telephone

Fireplace Heating

Diesel Generator

Solar Panel

Deep Cycle Batteries

Pure Sine Inverter

Windmill

Solar hot water

LED lights

Lighting

Gas & Oil Lanterns

Candles

General Stores

90 days food

10 days

drinking water

Vitamins

Toiletries

Petrol/Diesel

Fire wood

Bottled Gas

Medication

Heritage Seeds

Fertilizer

workshop disposables

(nails & screws)

Library

Sewerage System

Septic or

Grey Water System

Compost Toilet

Transport

Horse(s)

Bicycle

Diesel Vehicle

Good Walking Shoes

Refrigerator

Kalgoorlie Fridge

‘Rubbish’

Recycling

Incinerator

Gas BBQ

Household Cooking

Wood Stove Range

Open Fire Hearth

Growing Food

Chicken Run

Vegetable garden

Compost Heap

A Milking Cow

Household: Ideal Capabilities

Hand Tools

Workshop

Conventional Power

Tools

Power Generation

Hand Pump

Water Tank

Water Filtration Unit



Form a Community

Attended to by people in

the community, to beused by the community

A series of local ‘village’

councils, each

representing a

geographic area small

enough for people to

walk to meetings

Who?

What tools and

community assets

will be used?

Who benefits from

the outcome?

Where it will

be done?

Who will do it?

What needs to

be done?

Mandate

Mapping what is where

in the community

Maintaining

communication hubs

Community scale food

and product crops

Management of appropriate

land stewardship in

community environment

Building and construction

of community assets

Dispute resolution

Interaction and trade with

surrounding communities

Tasks



The Village Community

cropslivestock

livestock livestock

crops

crops

crops

Meeting Hall

Storage sheds

Storage sheds

crops

crops

crops

Tasked vacantland

Work sheds

This is a basic idea. Perhaps you could refit it to suit your local area?



The Network of Communities

Beef & Leather Products Dairy Products

Fruit & VegetablesMetal Casting& Fabrication

Hospital

Textiles



Food Production

• Required to be completely organic in method• No petroleum based herbicides/pesticides/fertilisers

• Land stewardship very important

– Balance between fruit & vegetables vs. livestock

– Allowing soil/land to recover effectively & sustainably

• Managing seasons with planting calendars critical• Seed saving needs to be done in a way that does not impact the rest of the

crops

• Based on soil health

– Mineral balance

– Humus levels – Micro-organism content

• Nutrition will be more important than ever before

• Food preservation, canning and meat smoking will be important

The key to a communities health is the quality of its food source



Community Monetary exchange

• What does money really do and who for?

• Revise and restructure the concept of debt

• Revise and restructure the concept of ownership – The individual vs. the community

• “what you see is what you get” – Get off fiat electronic currency as a medium of exchange

• Have practical logistical support to engage local business with: – Barter in some form (a LETS scheme)

– The purchase large scale goods (like real estate) with gold or silver bullion

– Existing Federally issued fiat currency

– Whatever the Australian Federal Government recommends as a

replacement for the existing Australian fiat currency dollar

• Have the authority for local community to make a legally accepted

choice with regard to which of the above options is exercised

Food couldbecome money



What will our future technology manufacture

profile look like?• Rare examples of early twenty-first century technology

• Hybrid constructions from recycled parts used innovatively

• 1930s (pre transistor) technology (what we can manufacture

from obsolete equipment around us)

• 1880s base level technology (what we can create from scratch

from the surrounding environment)

We are well past the point where this willbe smooth, easy or even polite



Steam Technology

Solar Power

Wind power

Biogas

Energy Source

Water wheel

Blacksmith

Woodwork

Metal Casting

Pottery

Rubber Casting

Wood Turning

Glass Blowing

Leather Work

Skill Set

Basket weaving

Textiles and rope

Manufacture of

useful devices fit

for purpose

Raw materials to provide

energy to run (gas,

charcoal or coal)

Forge & bellows

Blast furnace

Pottery Kiln

Glass Kiln

Electrical power

Supporting

TechnologyMetal

Wood

Recycle and Recover

Nails, bolts,

washers and

screwsPlastic

Rubber

Electrical/

Mechanical

parts

GlassLeather

Metal feed stock

Tree felling &

timber dressing

Clay feedstock

Animal hide

Shredded rubber

Feed Raw Materials

Bamboo, Hemp

& Plant

Ground glass

Milling Machine

Metal Lathe

Metal Machining

Workshop

Hydraulic Press

Welding

Power tools



The New Industrial Network

Manufacture of

Goods

Mining of Raw

Materials

Manufacture of

Structural Materials

Construction of

Infrastructure

Iron

Ore

Copper

Gold

Zinc

Nickel

Oil

Gas

Uranium

Coal

Energy

Steel

Aluminium

Cement

Industrial

Chemicals

Finance

Something of

physical valueto industry

Plastics

Recycling

S i m p l i f y

Must have a closed loop

footprint. Must not

generate much pollution

People supported

externally withnecessities

Manufacture of

Simplified Goods

Self

Sufficient

Energy

There are vast reserves

left. No longer to be

consumed on a whim.

Develop a new industrial grid to meet a



• Periodic external input

• Long periods of dormancy• Simplified tech output

p gnew set of requirements

Paradigm 3



Paradigm 3 – Self Sufficient Industrial

• Will function like a self sufficient community village – Each industrial unit will support others to generate a final product

– The whole is greater than the sum of the parts

• All necessary components will be on the same physical site – From raw materials to delivery of final manufactured product

• What is produced will be vastly simplified and to a different mandate

• Recycling and repurposing will be vital

• Based on trust around practical delivered capability

• Will need to be supported by a network of self sufficient communities



Money exchange in new industrial sector

Money may be replaced with useful physical goods



Industrial Manufacture Node would be

Completely Self Sufficient

Power Source

Recycled

steel

Recycled

Copper

Recycled

Rubber

All located on the same physical site

Clay

Small Scale

Foundry

Steel

Ingots

Copper

Ingots

RubberCasting

Bricks

Furnace

& Kiln

Medium Scale

Machine Shop

Metal Casting

Foundry

Industrial

Solar

Industrial

Wind

Industrial

Biomass Method of

Transport to

Installation

Site

People

Lime/Silica& Gypsum

Cement

Factory

Mortar



How I think all 3 paradigms will

interact over a 20 year time frame



Current Paradigm

Paradigm 1



Paradigm 1


Paradigm 1

Paradigm 1

Paradigm 1



Paradigm 1

Paradigm 1



Paradigm 2

Paradigm 2

Paradigm 2

Paradigm2

Paradigm 1

Paradigm 2

Paradigm 2

Paradigm 2




Paradigm 2

Paradigm 2

Paradigm 2

Paradigm2

Paradigm 4

Paradigm 2

Paradigm 2

Paradigm 2



The most difficult but significant task in front of us is a revolution inperception and a restructuring of social responsibility



You have a choice…



Questions???

My wife and I in 40 years time(its up to you to keep up)



Slides for Q&A



What to do when challenged to a debate



Accept your past without regret, handle yourpresent with confidence and face your future

without fear!



f l



Energy Density of Oil

1 litre of Petrol = 132 hours of hard labour

• Put 1 litre of petrol in your car• Drive it till it runs out

• Push car back to start point

At $15/hour 1 litre of petrol = $1981.20



EROEI

(The song and dance needed to get the energy)

• Conventional Oil 12-18:1

• Tar Sands Oil 3:1

• Shale Oil 5:1

• Coal 50-80:1• Conventional LNG gas 10:1

• Shale Gas 6.5:1

• Hydro Power 20-40:1

• Solar Power 2-8:1

• Wind Power 18:1

• Conventional Nuclear 5:1 including the energy cost of

mining U (10:1 as quoted)

Some PerspectiveEuropean medievalsociety EROEI was

Approx 1.5:1

• Biogas 1.3:1

• Bio-ethanol 1.3:1



Quantity of Energy at Application

• Current oil demand is 87.4 Mb/day or 31.9Gb a year

• This translates to a little under 62 GW of energy

• The average coal power station outputs 650MW

• The average gas power station outputs 550 MW

• The average Nuclear power station outputs 850MW

• The gigantic Three Gorges Dam hydro project in China outputs

18.2 GW

• The new solar power stations being commissioned output

350MW

• An offshore wind turbine on average outputs 3.6MW

S I t d d f il ld b



So I year current demand for oil, could be

replaced with:

• 191 coal fired power stations each year for 50 years

• 248 gas power stations each year for 50 years

• 354 industrial scale solar power stations each year for 50years

• 146 nuclear power plants each year for 50 years

• 7 Three Gorges Dams projects each year for 50 years

• 34 400 off shore wind turbines each year for 50 years



Oil supply conventional and unconventional

Tar and oil sands have pushed back the peak of total oilsupply back 6-7 years

Year 2012



G F C

Oil Production Static

There are resource depletion limitswhich heavily influence other processes

in negative feed back loops



What Does All This Mean For The Energy Grid?

• Peak oil means the node of petroleum energy supply is about tobe disrupted

• All links in the network system supported by petroleum will be

logistically traumatized

• As it stands, any replacement energy is less dense per unit volume

and requires extensive infrastructure to be built

• This means the replacement network system will need to be less

complex than the current one, once fully operational

• It will also take time for the network to reach full complexity

The same thing will happen in a few years for gas

and in 10 years time for coal



Ore is shifted with diesel fuel (oil)

255 tonne load capacity 200kg (?) load capacity

1 truck = 3400 donkey loads

Bingham: Would we cart

5000tph of rock for

10tph of copper (0.2%

grade) without oil? Or

run 66 000 donkey loadsan hour…..

Not without its

logistical problems

There comes a point when

something has to give.

Escondida: 1/3 of total

energy consumed is in

haulage of ore from pit to

plant

l f f h i l i hi



General form of the Energy-Size relationship

An exponentialincrease in power draw

A decrease inplant final grind

size P80

=A decrease inmetal grain size

=

E n e r g y ,

k W h / t

Hukki 1962



We Use a lot of Energy

The demand end of the equation needs surgery



bl l



Non-renewable natural resource use

“Humans like most other biological organisms use the highest quality, richest and easiest to obtain

resources first.”

(Chris Martenson 2008)



Copper is a finite resource like any other

Forecast

Historical

Global Cu production byprincipal geological

deposit types



Everything has a cycle



(no really, who?)



The Five Stages of Collapse

1) Financial CollapseFaith in “business as usual” is lost. The future no longer resembles the past. Financial

institutions become insolvent, savings wiped out, access to capital lost

2) Commercial Collapse

Faith that “the market will fix it” is lost. Retail crashes. Rolling shortages

3) Political Collapse

Faith that “the government will save us” is lost.

4) Social Collapse

Faith that your people will take care of you is lost. Social institutions fail.

5) Cultural Collapse

Faith in humanity is lost. Families disband and compete for resources as individuals.



N t k A l i R l ‘S E tit ’ f



Network Analysis Reveals ‘Super Entity’ of

Global Corporate ControlIn the first such analysis ever conducted,Swiss economic researchers have conducteda global network analysis of 43 000 of themost powerful transnational corporations(TNCs) drawn from a sample of 37 millioneconomic “actors” in the Orbis database).

The resulting TNC network produced a graphwith 600,508 nodes and 1,006,987 ownershipconnections.

Their results have revealed a core of 787

firms with control of 80% of this network,and a “super entity” comprised of 147

corporations that have a controlling interestin 40% of the network’s TNCs.

Transnational corporations form a giant bow-tie structure and thata large portion of control flows to a small tightly - knit core of financial institutions.

Who actually owns these corporations?



Who actually owns these corporations?

37 million economic “actors”

1318 corporations

147 corporations

21 hedge funds

Less than 1% of

corporations

controls 60% of

entire revenue

DirectlyControls 80% of

entire network

of corporations

Would this corporate entity ‘do the right and ethical thing’ with regard

to developing society on behalf of humanity at large?

True influenceunknown

G liti l ti R i f i L



Geopolitical negative Reinforcing Loop



The banking/financial sector claims to be eliminating risk, but what it's actuallydoing is perfecting the threats that will destroy the system from within. Another way to understand this is to look at what happened to home mortgages in therunup to the meltdown of 2008: the "safest" part of the financial sector endedup triggering the collapse of the entire pyramid of risk.

The Real Financial Structure



Credit Default

Swaps &

Derivatives

International

Tax Havens

FiatCurrencies

Creation of

unsustainable debt

A system where a small group

of insiders are protected andeveryone else is drained

Fraud:manipulation of all

public disclosures

Outcome:Class Warfare

Interlocking

Corporate

Ownership

Fractional Reservebanking

Questionable

leadership

Corporate lobby

groups

Corporate Law

Maritime Law

Who really runs this world andare we really a democracy?



The is a reasonably serious campaign to

discourage whistle-blowers

Real growth is dependant on energy and



Real growth is dependant on energy and

real resources

Price of oil to make oil exploration economicApprox. - $USD 100/barrel

Price of oil above which economic growth is very difficultApprox. - $USD 100/barrel

The End of Growth(R. Heinberg 2012)

Club of Rome 1972



Club of Rome 1972

Conclusions from Limits to Growth



Conclusions from Limits to Growth

(as briefed to CFR 1972)• The basic behavior mode of the world system is exponential growth

of population and capital followed by collapse

• Application of technology to the apparent problem of resourcedepletion or pollution or food shortages has no impact on the

essential problem of exponential growth.

• Population crisis & crash can be postponed but not indefinitely

• Unconventional solution exponentially growing population needed

But corporate culture must grow to survive



But corporate culture must grow to survive

• Current business culture must expand and show a profit

• If a business doesn’t show a profit of 5-10%, financialinvestment is withdrawn and sent else where

• Most businesses are not financially self sufficient and dependon investment to operate

• The need for growth is a key KPI for survival

• Most businesses are armpit deep in debt

• Its getting increasingly difficult to grow without goingfurther into debt

S h t d d ?



So what do we do?

Who arewe?

What kind of world dowe want to live in

Certain behaviourshave got to go



Who to trust?



Who to trust?

Learn discernment in character judgement

Deforestation of Borneo over the last



Deforestation of Borneo over the last

few decades



An island of trash twice the size of Texas floats in the

middle of the Pacific Ocean, circulated by the currents of

the North Pacific Gyre. The trash, which is mostly made

up of plastic debris, floats as deep as 30 feet below the

Deep Water Horizon



Deep Water Horizon

Deep Water Horizon



Deep Water Horizon

For a short time, the global Gulf Streamwas cut



Real time satellite data maps of the Gulf of Mexico: Real time surface

height maps (above) and sea suface velocity maps (below) starting

April 22nd 2010 until June 12th 2010 processed by CCAR and checked at

was cut

For a short time, the global Gulf Streamwas cut



was cut

A theory has been put forward that this single incident has disrupted the global Global Conveyor

Belt Stream or Loop Stream ocean current, where such a large volume of oil (different density to

water) still sits below the surface of the Gulf of Mexico.

Released by US Navy



Released by US Navy

Polar Vortex Structures



Polar Vortex Structures

A new weather structure, last seen a few hundredyears ago in the ‘little ice age’

Weather in the Northern Hemisphere has



eat e t e o t e e sp e e as

been really cold for the last few years

Warm water is no longer being transported to Northern Europe at the samerate as before. London traditionally has relative mild winters, where Canada to

the west and Moscow to the east (at the same latitude) are known for harsh

winters of temperatures of -40⁰C. The British Isles and Northern Europe have

had very cold winters for the last few years.

F k hi th ift



Fukashima – the gift

that keeps on giving

Dec 23 2013



Gulf ofMexico oil

spill 2010

Fukashima

nuclearmeltdown

2011



It doesn’t have to be this way



For each bushel of wheat sent to market, 0.8 cubic meters of soil ismade infertile. Natural habitats are destroyed. Intimately dependant

t l d t E l t i bl i f l



on petroleum products. Employs an unstainable economies of scale.

The use of GMO’s has the potential to devastate whole regions

of the food chain.

Not only is this not very good for the health of these chickens



But the sheer volume of grain required to feed these animals andthe petroleum products needed to run this fragile network

are staggering

Not only is this not very good for the health of these livestock



But the sheer volume of grain required to feed these animals andthe petroleum products needed to run this fragile network

are staggering

All of our current efforts are pushing in the



wrong direction and are ultimately irrelevant!!!!

The push for growth on all fronts must come crashing to a stop ina finite system eventually

Why was this allowed to happen?



y pp

Because they could

our current ‘developed’ culture

And we never understood the true consequences

We were convinced it was OK

Expecting corporate culture to act for the



greater good is inappropriate

• If it incurs a profit loss

• Or threatens their businessmodel

• Once survival becomes anissue…

N t t t h i t i



Never try to teach a pig to sing…

You waste your time…

…and you upset the pig

You cannot just tell someone what is happening that might change theirworld. They have to see it for themselves then seek knowledge on their own

The best laid plans are still vulnerable to



p

the random chaos

• Situation awareness

• Flexibility• Capability• Resilience

Society Transition Through Peak Industrialisation

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