MiNTSMisr National

Transport Study

MiNTS

Introduction to MiNTS

J Thompson, PEActing Team Leader

JICA Study Team

MiNTS Seminar31 July, 2011

MiNTSMisr National

Transport Study

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What is What is MiNTSMiNTS??

MiNTS Misr National Transport Study

Previous Studies for Egyptian National Transport Development,

funded by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)

1979

1981

1993

1996

American Consultant (Louise Berger)

Netherlands Consultant (Nedeco) 1984: Updatedby Egyptian Consultant

National Road Master Plan

National Railway Master Plan

JICA

JICA

MiNTSMisr National

Transport Study

Establish a nationwide, multi-modal databasewhose validity rests on a series of focused transport survey and data collection exercises;

Formulate overall strategies and policies for development of the nationwide transport fabric;

Develop an integrated, multi-modal transport master plan extending over a staged planning horizon to year 2027;

Identify, within the master plan framework, high-priority projects; and,

Implement an effective and productive technology transfer program with Egyptian counterparts.

Study ObjectivesStudy Objectives

DatabaseDatabase

Master

PlanMaster

Plan

Technology

TransferTechnology

Transfer

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MiNTSMisr National

Transport Study

MiNTS, being a comprehensive and multi-modal Republic-wide transport study, addresses the entirety of Egypt with emphasis on major national and international transport corridors.

Study AreaStudy Area

Int’l Airport

Domestic Airport

Int’l Airport

Domestic Airport

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MiNTSMisr National

Transport Study

Study ScheduleStudy Schedule

December 2009Inception Data Collection Strategic Planning Master Plan

August 2010Analysis

December 2011

Finalization

Staged Projects Plan

Priority Projects

Draft Final Report

Strategic Corridors

BalancedTransport Modes

Transport Master Plan

Future Transport Demand

Interim Report 2

Approach andMethodology

Overview of Existing Conditions

Data Collection

Develop Transport

Model

Progress Report

Interim Report 1

Socio-economicFramework

Aug 2011

National Transport Survey

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MiNTSMisr National

Transport Study

Recent AchievementsRecent Achievements

National Transport Survey (March – July, 2010)

Master Plan

Technology Transfer/ Training

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22

33

Database

- Passenger and Freight (Cargo) transportation- 15 different Surveys (Interview, Counting..)

- Origin/Destination Table (Current) << Survey Results

- Transport Network Building (Road, Rail, IWT..)- GIS data (Socio-economic, land use, development Plan…)- Socio-economic Framework- Transport Modelling (CUBE)- Future Transport Projects

- CUBE- GIS

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MiNTSMisr National

Transport Study

OutputOutput--1 :National Transport Survey/ 1 :National Transport Survey/ DatabaseDatabase

Roadside Interview Survey

Passenger Transport Terminal Survey

Freight Transport Terminal Survey

Maritime Terminal Survey

Freight Company Survey

5 Groups, 15 types of Surveys

with vehicle counting

- Railway Station- Bus Terminal- Shared-Taxi

Terminal- Airport- Seaport

- Railway Terminal- River Port- Dry Port- Free Zone- Airport

- Seaport

- Freight Forwarder (58 Companies)

- Trucking Company (63 companies)

- Manufacturer (242 companies)

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Group-1Group-1

Group-2Group-2 Group-3Group-3

Group-4Group-4

Group-5Group-5

MiNTSMisr National

Transport Study

Sign BoardSign BoardSign BoardSign BoardPolicePolicePolice

SupervisorSupervisor

Road ShoulderRoad ShoulderGov. BorderGov. Border

SurveyorSurveyor

GroupGroup--1: Roadside Interview Survey1: Roadside Interview Survey

Interview with Driver

Vehicle Counting

185 Points297,725 samplesSample Rate:12.4%

185 Points297,725 samplesSample Rate:12.4%7

MiNTSMisr National

Transport Study

GroupGroup--1: Roadside Interview Survey1: Roadside Interview Survey

MiNTS Zone (A)

Survey Points (185 Points)Survey Points (185 Points)

Zone (B)

Located at Zone boundary

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MiNTSMisr National

Transport Study

GroupGroup--2: Passenger Terminal Survey2: Passenger Terminal Survey

Shared-Taxi Terminal(Alexandria)

Bus Terminal (Fayoum)Interview with Passenger

52.6%8738Seaport

17.5%4,07211Airport

21.3%99,405Shared-Taxi Terminal

18.3%15,666110

Bus Terminal

15.9%43,14426Railway Station

Nos. of Terminals, Sample, Sample Rate

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MiNTSMisr National

Transport Study

GroupGroup--3: Freight Terminal Survey3: Freight Terminal SurveyGroupGroup--4: Maritime Terminal Survey4: Maritime Terminal Survey

Railway Station (Imbaba)Interview with Driver

River Port (Tebbin)Interview with Driver

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46.0%16,97010Seaport

23.2%2751Air Port

13.9%3217Free Zone

26.9%207Dry Port

17.6%8115River Port

49.1%31527Railway Terminal

Nos. of Terminals, Sample, Sample Rate

Sea Port (Alexandria)

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MiNTSMisr National

Transport Study

Database OverviewDatabase Overview

Database2010

Core Data

MiNTSSurveys

Existing Data

ProcessingData Examples

• Pax OD by Mode• Commodity OD• Cargo OD by Mode• Traffic Count Data• Present Network

with Inventory• Traffic on Network• Time series data

of transport statistics

Transport Model

Forecast Information

• Pax OD by Mode• Commodity OD• Cargo OD by Mode• Future Network

with Project List• Traffic on Network• Project Evaluation

Data• Input Data• Model Parameter

11Pax: Passenger, OD: Origin and Destination

MiNTSMisr National

Transport Study

Sample Structure of Sample Structure of MiNTSMiNTS Data BaseData Base

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MiNTSMisr National

Transport Study

The The MiNTSMiNTS GIS Data Base: GIS Data Base: An Evolving Resource An Evolving Resource

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MiNTSMisr National

Transport Study

The The MiNTSMiNTS GIS Data Base GIS Data Base (Transport Systems)(Transport Systems)

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MiNTSMisr National

Transport Study

The The MiNTSMiNTS GIS Data Base GIS Data Base (Land Cover)(Land Cover)

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MiNTSMisr National

Transport Study

The The MiNTSMiNTS GIS Data Base GIS Data Base (National, Regional and Local Demographics)(National, Regional and Local Demographics)

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MiNTSMisr National

Transport Study

The major modes of transport: road, rail, maritime, inland waterway, air and pipeline.

However,

the practical MiNTS master planning focus will be those modes falling under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Transport; that is, the road, rail, maritimeand inland waterway sectors.

OutputOutput--2: Master Plan2: Master Plan

The target years of MiNTS• Year 2017: Short Term Horizon• Year 2022: Medium Term Horizon• Year 2027: Long Term (Ultimate) Horizon

The analysis zones of MiNTS• 61 Large Zones (52 internal, 9 external zones)• 394 Small Zones (385 internal, 19 external zones)

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MiNTSMisr National

Transport Study

1

10

100

1,000

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

GDP per Capita (Constant 2000 US$)

Fo

ur-

plu

s W

heele

d V

eh

icle

s p

er

1,0

00

Pers

on

s

Afghanistan Algeria Bahrain Egypt Iran

Iraq Israel Jordan Kuwait Lebanon

Morocco Oman Palestine Qatar KSA

Libya Sudan Syria Tunisia UAE

Yemen

Source: Study Team using principally International Road Federation and World Bank data. Information utilizes available years of record through 2008.

Motorization: Vehicle OwnershipMotorization: Vehicle Ownership

Egypt (Historical Data)Egypt (Historical Data)

MENA Countries

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MiNTSMisr National

Transport Study

Passenger Modal SplitPassenger Modal Split(results of National Transport Survey, 2010)(results of National Transport Survey, 2010)

Total Daily Trips (Inter-Large Zone Trips)Total Daily Trips (Inter-Large Zone Trips)

Source: JICA Study Team based on results of MiNTSsurveys. Air excludes international passengers. Rail includes estimate for non-paying passengers. Trip defined as inter-Large Zone journey.

Upper: ModeMiddle: Nos. of Trips (,000)Bottom: Modal Share (%)

- 7.298 million trips are generated per day for inter-large zone traffic.

- “Shared Taxi” is dominant with about half of the inter-large zone trips.

- “Bus” shares 24%, Passenger car shares 18%.

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MiNTSMisr National

Transport Study

Passenger: Trip GenerationPassenger: Trip Generation(results of National Transport Survey, 2010)(results of National Transport Survey, 2010)

Person Trip Generationfor each Large Zone, 2010Person Trip Generationfor each Large Zone, 2010

Source: JICA Study Team based on results of MiNTS surveys. Trip defined as inter-Large Zone journey.

- Daily number of generated trips by large zone derived from MiNTS “National Transport Survey” and data analysis.

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MiNTSMisr National

Transport Study

88.7

92.894.5

98.6

6.1

5.4

4.65.2

1.80.8

0.90.5

80%

90%

100%

1979 1992 2000 2010

Freight (Cargo) Modal SplitFreight (Cargo) Modal Split(results of National Transport Survey, 2010)(results of National Transport Survey, 2010)

Annual Tonnage by ModeAnnual Tonnage by Mode

Source: JICA Study Team based on previous studies (1979, 1992 and 2000) and the MiNTS survey (2010).

- Cargo transport has been increased rapidly since 1979.

- Shares of non-road modes was have been decreasing.

- Inland waterway transport (IWT) throughput totals about half of historic year 1979 maximum (4.3mil.ton/year).

- Railway cargo volume was less than half in 2010 compared to 2000.

178.3

3.2

9.6

165.5

1992

5.0

439.6256.083.0Total

2.22.24.3IWT

4.011.8Railway

433.7242.0 73.7Road

201020001979

Annual Cargo Transportation (million ton)

Cargo Modal Split (%)

RoadRoad

RailwayRailway

IWTIWT

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Note: IWT excludes cross-river ferries.

MiNTSMisr National

Transport Study

Traffic Volume on RoadsTraffic Volume on Roads(results of National Transport Survey, 2010)(results of National Transport Survey, 2010)

Road Traffic Volume (in PCU)2010Road Traffic Volume (in PCU)2010

Source: JICA Study Team based on results of MiNTS surveys. Trip defined as inter-Large Zone journey.

- Daily traffic volume derived from MiNTS “National Transport Survey” and data analysis.

- Indicated volumes suggest un acceptable levels of traffic operations, particularly within the Delta.

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MiNTSMisr National

Transport Study

MiNTSMiNTS Spatial Policy StructureSpatial Policy Structure(Development Center Hierarchy and Transport Corridors)(Development Center Hierarchy and Transport Corridors)

MiNTS Proposal (Tentative)MiNTS Proposal (Tentative)

- Two National Centers

- Seven Gateway Centers

- Regional Centers

- Transport Corridor (multi-modal)

Source: JICA Study Team

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MiNTSMisr National

Transport Study

CUBE: Software for Transportation Planning

GIS: Geographical Information System

OutputOutput--3: Technology Transfer/ 3: Technology Transfer/ TrainingTraining

Stages of MiNTS Training• Stage-1: Knowledge Building Stage• Stage-2: “Shadow” Stage• Stage-3: Enhanced Application Stage• Stage-4: Continuing Participation Stage

Microsimulation

Air Quality

Passenger Freight

place

product

Land Use

price

promotion

targetmarket

CubeDynasim

Cube Polar

Cube VoyagerCube Cargo

ArcGIS

ArcGIS

Cube Land

ArcGIS

ArcGIS

CubeBase

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MiNTSMisr National

Transport Study

Thank you !