"Smart, safe, and just: Goals for the global energy system"

Robert SocolowPrinceton Universitysocolow@princeton.edu

Dennis Anderson Memorial LectureNovember 23, 2010

Imperial College, London South Kensington Campus, Lecture Theatre 220

Dennis Anderson 1937-2008

Source: Marsaleete Anderson

“A Sheffield lad”

Source: Marsaleete Anderson, photo from 2004. A model of a butane-powered York-Bolton Mill Engine and Steam Plant

Dennis’ Preferences

• Efficiency first• Nuclear power, as we know it, is a menace• Renewables are compelling• The poor get priority

I resonate with all four themes. I will be showing at least a few slides on each.

There is a big new idea here.

I am a science teacher. A teacher’s job is to prepare students for what lies ahead of them. We want especially to make our students comfortable with ideas that were not familiar to previous generations.

There is a big new idea here.

Human beings are able to change the small planet we live on

For the first time in history, for better or for worse, human beings are powerful enough to affect the whole planet. Forests have been cleared and fisheries have been depleted on a global scale. Most of the low-cost oil has been found. The surface oceans are already more acidic. These are quantitative observations.

Our new assignment: “Fitting on the planet.”

Our exuberance is the problem

The Earth’s smallness is the result of the dominance of democratic values, consumer values, and the values of self-realization.

The collision with environmental limits was prominently foretold in the 1970s (e.g., Limits to Growth), but we chose to shoot the messenger rather than to heed her.

Don’t shoot the messenger

Twice before, the messenger was shot.

Galileo argued that the earth wasn’t at the center of the universe and was excommunicated.

Darwin argued that human beings were part of the animal kingdom and was cruelly mocked.

This is a similar time. We can change the planet.

The idea that humans can’t change our planet is as out-of-date and wrong as the earth-centered universe.

We would much rather live on a planet that was harder to change.

When the first doctor we consult brings us a diagnosis we don’t like, we should seek a second opinion.

But there’s a time to move on.

Grounds for optimism

• The world today has a terribly inefficient energy system.

• Carbon emissions have just begun to be priced.

• Most of the 2060 physical plant is not yet built.

• Very smart scientists and engineers now find energy problems exciting.

Many new infrastructures

Infrastructures for efficient energy

Carbon dioxide infrastructure

Nuclear fuel cycle infrastructure

Renewables and the electric grid

The past 50 years: U.S. National Highway System

Efficient use of fuel

U.S. vehicle-miles traveled, two views

Sources: Left: U.S. PIRG Education Fund, 2007. The Carbon Boom: State and National Trends in Carbon Dioxide Emissions Since 1990, April 2007 (44 pp.), p. 27. Right: American Physical Society, 2008. Energy Future: Think Efficiency.

Efficient Use of Electricity

Measure, learn, iterate. (Trust, but verify.)

U.S. electricity growth rate is falling(3-year rolling average percent growth)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

ProjectionsPeriod Annual Growth

1950s 9.0

1960s 7.3

1970s 4.2

1980s 3.1

1990s 2.4

2000-2006 1.2

2006-2030 1.1

Exponential curve (20 years for rate to fall by half): EIA

Per

cen

t p

er y

ear

ProjectionsPeriod Annual Growth

1950s 9.0

1960s 7.3

1970s 4.2

1980s 3.1

1990s 2.4

2000-2006 1.2

2006-2030 1.1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030Nothing in physics or economics forbids negative values! Blue dashed line: RHS.

Per

cen

t p

er y

ear

U.S. electricity growth rate is falling(3-year rolling average percent growth)

Is peak energy demand behind us?

If the OECD takes efficiency seriously, annual consumption from now on could be less than in any past year – for both:

• oil consumption

• electric power consumption

China’s appliance standards

Business as Usual: CO2 emissions from air conditioners in 2020 are 9x those in 2000.New Air Conditioner Standard: Down 25% (45 MtCO2/yr) in 2020.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

20002002200420062008201020122014201620182020

50 million new, efficient air conditioners per year in 2020

Many new infrastructures

Infrastructures for efficient energy

Carbon dioxide infrastructure

Nuclear fuel cycle infrastructure

Renewables and the electric grid

The past 50 years: U.S. power plants

Source: Benchmarking Air Emissions, April 2006. The report was co-sponsored by CERES, NRDC and PSEG.

Capacity, total by source

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

year of initial operation

meg

awat

t

Other

Renewables

Water

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

U.S. Power Plant Capacity, by Vintage

Issues: Grandfathering, retirement, relicensing, retrofit, repowering

Source: EIA. Joseph.Beamon@eia.doe.gov

Zero minus zero equals zero

If there is no load growth* and there are no retirements, then nothing new is needed.

*Demand can grow in some regions and fall in others.

The future coal power plantShown here: After 10 years of operation of a 1000 MW coal plant, 60 Mt (90 Mm3) of CO2 have been injected, filling a horizontal area of 40 km2 in each of two formations.

Assumptions:• 10% porosity• 1/3 of pore space

accessed• 60 m total vertical height for

the two formations.

• Note: Plant is still young.

Injection rate is 150,000 bbl(CO2)/day, or 300 million standard cubic feet/day (scfd). 3 billion barrels, or 6 trillion standard cubic feet, over 60 years.

U.S. CO2 pipeline infrastructure

Source: "Reducing CO2 Emissions from Coal-Fired Power Plants," John Wheeldon, EPRI, presented at the CCTR Advisory Panel Meeting, Vincennes University, Vincennes IN, September 10, 2009. Reproduced in Science Applications International Corporation, Indiana and Coal: Keeping Indiana Energy Cost Competitive, June 2010, Fig. 2-15, submitted to Indiana Center for Coal Technology Research

Denbury proposes to send Indiana CO2 to the Gulf states.

An Ohio Valley CO2 pipeline network instead? Advantages:

More local jobs

Greater storage volume

Less climate change.

CO2 capture from Algerian gas

In Salah, Algeria, natural gas purification

amine contactor towers

AEP Mountaineer Plant, 2009, WV

Source: Alstom via Yale 360, February 18, 2010

Mountaineer is the first power plant in the world to capture and store carbon dioxide.

Many new infrastructures

Infrastructures for efficient energy

Carbon dioxide infrastructure

Nuclear fuel cycle infrastructure

Renewables and the electric grid

Site: Surry station, James River, VA; 1625 MW since 1972-73,. Credit: Dominion.

Fission power with dry-cask storage

Low-cost, concealable enrichment

Global Enrichment Capacity, 2008

Source: Alex Glaser, MAE Seminar, 4-15-09

Unit: ton-SWU/yr

1000 GW plant:100-150 tSWU/yr

≈ 50 tons owned by

Germany & Japan

Separated civilian plutonium

World stock of separated civilian plutonium: 30,000 Nagasaki-equivalents and still growing (International Panel on Fissile Materials)

France’s reprocessing plant, La Hague (1700 tons/yr)

Source: Robert H. Socolow & Alexander Glaser, “Balancing risks: nuclear energy & climate change,” Daedalus, 2009.

Military- and Civilian-Separated Plutonium

Proliferation and the futility of a two-tier, supplier-user world

A Story:

In May 2006, in Delhi, I asked several leaders of the Indian nuclear enterprise to comment on the merits of a supplier-user arrangement of the world. They refused to do so until they knew in which category India would be.

If the U.S. had informed them that they were users, would they have gone underground?

Wise global nuclear power

• Safety: Create counter-incentives to plant relicensing, so that aging plants are retired.

• Storage: Revise the contract with society in favor of retrievable storage. Deploy dry-cask storage.

• Proliferation, plutonium: Indefinitely postpone U.S. reprocessing and end reprocessing elsewhere.

• Proliferation, uranium: Place all enrichment facilities, including ours, under international governance.

• Governance: Establish a one-tier world.

Many new infrastructures

Infrastructures for efficient energy

Carbon dioxide infrastructure

Nuclear fuel cycle infrastructure

Renewables and the electric grid

Power Sector CO2 Emissions & Sharesof Nuclear Power & Renewables, 2004

Source: WEO 2006

Wind farms out of sight

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/04/nyregion/04wind.html?ref=nyregion, New York Times, October 3, 2008.

Offshore New Jersey: 96 turbines, 346 MW, 16 to 20 miles from coast. $1 billion project. Power “starting in 2013.”

Offshore “transmission backbone”

Announced, Oct 12, 2010

$5 billion project. $200 million initially from Google, Good Energy.

350-mile, 6000 MW transmission line,

federal waters, 15-20 miles offshore.

Source: October 12, 2010, NYT

Electric transmission for the low-carbon future

Every “solution” can be implemented well or poorly

Every “solution” has a dark side.

Conservation Regimentation

Renewables Competing uses of land

“Clean coal” Unsafe mining, land impacts

Nuclear power Nuclear war

Geoengineering Technological hegemony

Risk management

We must trade the risks of disruption from climate change against the risks of disruption from mitigation…

…and search for an optimum pace.

Hippocratic oath

I will apply, for the benefit of the sick, all measures that are required, avoiding those twin traps of overtreatment and therapeutic nihilism.*

* Modern version, Louis Lasagna, 1964, http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/doctors/oath_modern.html

Safe vs. Fair

Safe vs. Fair

If “fair” is a per capita concept and the unit of attention is the nation:

Safe is not fair.Fair is not safe.

Including historical emissions, “fair” is in even sharper conflict with “safe.”

Beyond per capita

We can’t solve the climate problem without moving beyond “per capita” – looking inside countries.

Where do the “high-emitters” live?

We project that in 2030, 1.2 billion “high-emitters” will be responsible for 60% of the world’s emissions…

… and half of these high-emitters will live outside the OECD.

2030

2003

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

2-10

<2

2030

2003

0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00%

USA other OECDChina other nonOECD

2030

2003

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

>10

Four-way distribution of emitters

National Emissions

Target

Required ReductionsPersonal Emissions Cap

+ + + + +

+

=

=

Individual emissions above a cap determine national reductions

Source: Steve Pacala, private communication, 2008

What about the low emitters?

No. 1 health impact of energy

2030

2003

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

2-10

<2

2030

2003

0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00%

USA other OECDChina other nonOECD

2030

2003

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

>10

Population distribution across 4 regionsThe poor need not be denied fossil fuels

Combine a global-emissions cap and an individual-emissions floor

Individual cap:without floor: 10.8 t CO2

with floor: 9.6 t CO2

1

The world’s poor do not need to be denied fossil fuels

What does 1 tCO2/person-yr allow?

Direct Energy Use

Household rate of use (4.5 people)

Individual emissions (kgCO2/yr)

Cooking 1 LPG canister per month

120

Transport 70 km by bus, car, motorbike per day

220

Electricity 800 kWh per year 160

Total 500

1 tCO2/yr: Double the “direct” emissions to account for “indirect” emissions.

Required: a multiplicity of empathies

Planetary and collective

Abstract

Uncertain risks, havoc possible

Entails a half-century of action

Local and individual

Vivid

Bounded outcomes

Produces benefits in days

The developing world will decide what kind of planet we live on.

For a while longer, the industrialized countries will lead.

Post-post-colonialism

The North-South relationship needs marriage counseling. The two partners are not listening to each other.

The UNFCCC, a post-colonial institution, affirms a two-tier world. Annex I expresses guilt. Non-Annex I expresses entitlement.

Needed: post-post-colonial institutions.

Planetary identity

In the process of taking climate change seriously, we develop a planetary identity.

We augment our previous loyalties to family, village, tribe, and nation.

Do you have a planetary identity?

Prospicience

Prospicience: “The art [and science] of looking ahead.”

In the past 50 years we have become aware of the history of our Universe, our Earth, and life.

Can we achieve a comparable understanding of human civilization at various future times: 50 years ahead – vs. 500 years and vs. 5000 years?

We have scarcely begun to ask: What are we on Earth to do?

Co-authors, recent papersWedges

Steve PacalaRoberta HotinskiJeff Greenblatt (now, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory)

Nuclear powerAlex Glaser

One-billion high emittersShoibal ChakravartyMassimo Tavoni (FEEM, Milan)Steve PacalaAnanth Chikkatur (then, Harvard; now ICF in D.C.)Heleen de Coninck (ECN, Netherlands)