SJKV Newsletter #04

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Please read the disclaimer page. Stock investment involves risks and the stock market is volatile. Successive JK Ventures Sdn. Bhd. (M) does not accept any investment funds or investment deals from public or subscribers. Our staffs or representatives will never offer fund packages, asset management services or any stock broking related services. Information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, they are given for information only, we do not warrant its accuracy. The price of any particular security may vary over time. Investing in it may cause one to incur financial loss. You should obtain advice from financial services licensee before making any financial decisions. SJKV Newsletter !Stock Market Overview (December) PAGE 1 ! What is happening with oil prices? ! Oil Outlook PAGE 2-3 ! Oil Outlook ! Consumer Spending PAGE 4 !Gold & Iron Ore updates PAGE 5 MONTHLY DECEMBER 2014 Stock Market Overview (December) Our top FAQ for the month : What’s going on? Why is the oil price falling so much? What should we do? When is the right time? Since this will be our year- end issue, me and my team will take this chance to explain what actually happened on oil prices. I hope this will provide some brief directions to our subscribers. Welcome 2015 Happy New Year ! Our best wishes to you and your family ! From all of us at Successive JK Ventures. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index managed to recover from 22,600.00 points back to 23,500.00 points thanks to several factors, reduced pressures on oil prices, a not too disappointing china economy data and the holiday Santa rally. Same goes to Australia’s ASX index, a rough mid December followed by a positive ending, slightly higher and better momentum comparing to the Hang Seng index. Most stock markets aected strongly by recent pressure on oil prices. For Hong Kong Market, Some of the top traded stocks were having a hard time to recover before end of 2014, with Hong Kong market opened lower than most of the optimistic investors expected from the usual year end holiday and santa rally push. Last week with only two and half trading day, Hang Seng index lost 47 points and H share index lost 20 points in the early session, several top stocks like China Mobile, Tencent, HSBC, Shenhua were struggling to climb. Property stocks listed on HSI supported the market for the week to maintain within the 23,000 points. On the other side, Mainland property market remains in negative for more than 2 months, thanks to the recent announcement made by China’s Central Bank for easing on liquidity which helped to push A shares up to more than 3% last week, however we still need to take note on the property price index, just incase it continues to fall further. From the first day of 2015 onwards, Mainland oil producers received a boost on Monday after the government said it will raise the minimum threshold for tax on oil sales. The news helped PetroChina shares jump as much as 3.8%, closing at1.7% higher, China Petroleum & Chemical Corp closed at 1.6% higher and CNOOC gained 1.7%. YEAR-END EDITION by Khin Chong | 30 December 2014 *Article/Opinion: What’s Next ? What to expect for 2015? Special edition will be sent to subscribers e-mail inbox early January 2015 !

Transcript of SJKV Newsletter #04

Page 1: SJKV Newsletter #04

Please read the disclaimer page. Stock investment involves risks and the stock market is volatile. Successive JK Ventures Sdn. Bhd. (M) does not accept any investment funds or investment deals from public or subscribers. Our staffs or representatives will never offer fund packages, asset management services or any stock broking related services. Information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, they are given for information only, we do not warrant its accuracy. The price of any particular security may vary over time. Investing in it may cause one to incur financial loss. You should obtain advice from financial services licensee before making any financial decisions.

SJKV Newsletter

!Stock Market Overview (December)

PAGE 1

! What is happening with oil prices?! Oil Outlook

PAGE 2-3

! Oil Outlook! Consumer Spending

PAGE 4

!Gold & Iron Ore updates

PAGE 5

M O N T H LYD E C E M B E R 2 0 1 4

Stock Market Overview (December)

Our top FAQ for the month : What’s going on? Why is the oil price falling so much? What should we do? When is the right time?

Since this will be our year-end issue, me and my team will take this chance to explain what actually happened on oil prices. I hope this will provide some brief directions to our subscribers.

Welcome 2015Happy New Year !

Our best wishes to you and

your family !

From all of us at Successive JK Ventures.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index managed to recover from 22,600.00 points back to 23,500.00 points thanks to several factors, reduced pressures on oil prices, a not too disappointing china economy data and the holiday Santa rally. Same goes to Australia’s ASX index, a rough mid December followed by a positive ending, slightly higher and better momentum comparing to the Hang Seng index. Most stock markets affected strongly by recent pressure on oil prices.

For Hong Kong Market, Some of the top traded stocks were having a hard time to recover before end of 2014, with Hong Kong market opened lower than most of the optimistic investors expected from the usual year end holiday and santa rally push.   Last week with only two and half trading day, Hang Seng index lost 47 points and H share index lost 20 points in the early session, several top stocks like China Mobile, Tencent, HSBC, Shenhua were struggling to climb. Property stocks listed on HSI supported the market for the week to maintain within the 23,000 points. On the other side, Mainland property market

remains in negative for more than 2 months, thanks to the recent announcement made by China’s Central Bank for easing on liquidity which helped to push A shares up to more than 3% last week, however we still need to take note on the property price index, just incase it continues to fall further.

From the first day of 2015 onwards, Mainland oil producers received a boost on Monday after the government said it will raise the minimum threshold for tax on oil sales. The news helped PetroChina shares jump as much as 3.8%, closing at1.7% higher, China Petroleum & Chemical Corp closed at 1.6% higher and CNOOC gained 1.7%.

Y E A R - E N D E D I T I O N

by Khin Chong | 30 December 2014

*Article/Opinion: What’s Next ?What to expect for 2015?

Special edition will be sent to subscribers e-mail inbox early

January 2015 !

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Please read the disclaimer page. Stock investment involves risks and the stock market is volatile. Successive JK Ventures Sdn. Bhd. (M) does not accept any investment funds or investment deals from public or subscribers. Our staffs or representatives will never offer fund packages, asset management services or any stock broking related services. Information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, they are given for information only, we do not warrant its accuracy. The price of any particular security may vary over time. Investing in it may cause one to incur financial loss. You should obtain advice from financial services licensee before making any financial decisions.

STOCKS: NEWS & COMMENTARIESby Khin Chong | 30 December 2014

BHP Billiton

Australia’s biggest company BHP Billiton Limited (ASX:BHP) today extended losses of more than 22 per cent over the year to close at $29.37.

BHP and RIO are currently planning to dominate the copper industry, pushing the weaker companies out and taking over the market just like what they did years ago with iron ore businesses globally. Separately and in joint ventures, Rio and BHP intend to mine millions of additional tons of copper, despite seeing the copper market being oversupplied now and will continue for the coming years. According to reported media, last week BHP Billiton Limited celebrated the shipment of its one-billionth ton of iron ore to China.

Company background : Based in Melbourne, Australia, BHP is the biggest commodity producer in the world and boasts plenty of other accomplishments these days.BHP Billiton mines and refines copper, silver, lead, zinc, molybdenum, diamonds, uranium and gold – the raw materials of modern industrial society. BHP also provides base metal concentrates

to custom smelters and copper cathodes to rod and brass mills and casting plants.

BHP stock sports a market cap of $126.1 billion and operations in more than 25 countries. From what I mentioned above, we can see that BHP is pushing whatever direction possible for them to improve their cost efficiency and trying to survive from falling commodities. What worries most for investors and share holders is the impact of falling prices across the iron ore, coal and petroleum industries. BHP fallen more than 35% this year with costs problems, fall in Iron Ore price and also the recent Oil Price issue. With a rock-solid balance sheet and ever-efficient operations, BHP is boosting production for 2015 via new projects, positioning BHP for growth as global recovery gains traction.

Should you buy BHP.AX ? Check out SJKV Stock Picks for 2015 @ www.sjkventures.info

Santos Limited

Shares in Santos Limited (ASX:STO) struggled over 2014 and lost more than 40 per cent as the price of oil plunged. The oil and gas producer was this month hit with a ratings cut from Standard & Poor’s and also announced it will lower its capital expenditure by 25 per cent next year. Santos has also recently secured a bilateral bank loan facility which it says will provide a substantial buffer in the current uncertain oil price environment. Shares in Santos dropped more than 40 per cent over 2014 to end the year at $8.25.

• Santos Limited (ASX:STO) reduces its 2015 capital expenditure by 25% in light of the recent rout on oil prices.

• Santos Limited (ASX:STO) inks a $27.5 million deal to sell an interest in its Victorian assets to Cooper Energy Limited (ASX:COE).

• Santos Limited (ASX:STO) secures an additional three-year $1 billion bilateral bank loan facility.

Page 3: SJKV Newsletter #04

Please read the disclaimer page. Stock investment involves risks and the stock market is volatile. Successive JK Ventures Sdn. Bhd. (M) does not accept any investment funds or investment deals from public or subscribers. Our staffs or representatives will never offer fund packages, asset management services or any stock broking related services. Information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, they are given for information only, we do not warrant its accuracy. The price of any particular security may vary over time. Investing in it may cause one to incur financial loss. You should obtain advice from financial services licensee before making any financial decisions.

What is happening with oil prices?

Price of oil has fallen by nearly half in just six months time, a steep plunge with economists wringing their hands over whether if it is a good or bad news.

SUPPLIES High oil prices for the past years, interrupted briefly by the recent recession and inspired drillers around the world to scour the earth’s crust for more oil. As US production was ramping up since 2008, turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa had reduced supplies from Libya, Iran and elsewhere. A balance was struck: Increasing supplies from outside of OPEC and the recovering oil industry from Iraq helped meet rising demand around the world as other OPEC supplies wavered. With that, non-OPEC supplies have swamped the market. OPEC estimate that the world wound need some 28.9 million barrels of its oil per day next year, considered the lowest in more than a decade. At the same time, OPEC countries plan to produce 30 million barrels of oil per day next year. That supply surplus is sending global prices to a lower level.

DEMAND

Global demand is still expected to grow next year. The economies from China, Japan and Western Europe - the top oil consumers after the United States - all appears to be weakening. Oil demand falls when economic growth stalls. The U.S is still world’s largest consumer, but more fuel-efficient cars and changing demographics mean demand for oil and gasoline will be increasing in a slower rate. The Energy Department predicts a slight decrease in gasoline demand in the coming years even though the price is expected to be lower while the economy is expected to grow.

THE HAPPY CONSUMERSLogistics, airlines and other consumers of fuel, there is nothing more happier than seeing oil prices at its downtrend. The national average gasoline price has fallen for 81 straight days to $2.55 a gallon, its lowest level since October 2009, according to AAA. It’s $1.15 a gallon cheaper than its high for the year, saving US households $100 a month as they shop for holiday presents. Diesel and jet fuel prices have also plunged, helping boost the profits and share prices of airlines and sea freighters. Heating oil remain cheapest for nearly four years, reducing home heating prices, just in time for winter.

THE WORRIED ECONOMISTS

Falling fuel prices act like a tax cut and help boost consumer spending, which in turn accounts for 70 percent of the US economy. But economist’s growing concerned on other, more troublesome forces at play. The depth of oil’s plunge could be a signal that the global economy is struggling even more than economists could think of. A weak global economy could hurt the US economy by reducing exports, employment and spending, which together could outweigh the economic benefits of cheaper fuel.

THE PRODUCERS’ PAIN

For oil companies, oil-producing states and oil exporting countries, the oil price collapse is painful. Oil companies generally keep producing oil from wells they have already drilled, but lower prices sharply reduce revenue and force them to cut back spending on new exploration projects. BP announced it would try to trim $1 billion in spending next year in a move that analysts say could result in thousands of job cuts. Major oil exporters such as Iran, Iraq, Russia and Venezuela rely heavily on revenues from state-owned oil companies to run their governments and are struggling under major budget shortfalls.

Dear readers,

I would like to say thank you for subscribing to SJKV’s newsletter. It has been nearly five years since Khin started the idea of SJKV and we are growing a step closer to our mission and vision.

Thanks to all your supports. I wish you and your family a happy new year, a brighter 2015 ahead !

In this issue, I will be sharing some information and outlook on the current oil industry. I believe it is good to know more about the recent oil issues for a better investment direction.

Lucas Leong XJ

by Lucas Leong XJ | 23 December 2014.

Page 4: SJKV Newsletter #04

Please read the disclaimer page. Stock investment involves risks and the stock market is volatile. Successive JK Ventures Sdn. Bhd. (M) does not accept any investment funds or investment deals from public or subscribers. Our staffs or representatives will never offer fund packages, asset management services or any stock broking related services. Information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, they are given for information only, we do not warrant its accuracy. The price of any particular security may vary over time. Investing in it may cause one to incur financial loss. You should obtain advice from financial services licensee before making any financial decisions.

Oil has fallen sharply during 2014, hitting a new low for the past 5 years. Last month, crude oil pushes further under $60 a barrel.

OPEC Oil Output for 2015

• 28.9 Million barrels per day versus 29.4 million barrels in 2014.

• A cut of some 300,000 barrels.• Lowest forecast since 2002.

Here are some reasons for oil to plunge below $60.

• Shale Oil competition• Price War

A price war aimed at routing shale and other higher-cost producers.

• Weaker Oil DemandSlower economic growth in China and Europe helped to keep growth demand under wraps.

• GeopoliticsOil had rallied into mid year, buoyed by geopolitical tensions.

• Strong Dollar

The International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its 2015 forecast for global oil demand growth by 230,000 barrels per day, to 900,000 barrels a day, citing lower expectations from oil-exporting countries. Russian Economy Minister said to cut government oil price forecast for 2015, however the Russian government need the price for a barrel of oil to be around $100 in order to budget their federal budget. Lower oil price lead the Russian economy to suffer a loss between $130 billion to

$140 billion annually, along with sanctions imposed to Russia.

The Positive Side

• OPEC helped US FED to enter QE4 without injecting any cash and liquidity into the financial market and economy.

• Lower oil price, higher purchasing power, US citizen with extra income.

• Cheaper oil price drives down the production costs and freight costs.

• There will be an explosive in consumer spending.

To conclude, oil will continue to fall at a slower speed, and most likely to rebound very soon in 2015. Oil companies will have to cope with the harsh situation with their production costs. But it will not take too long for oil price to show some sign of uptrend. Oil will continue to play a major part in satisfying world energy needs.

Research & Opinions : Oil Outlookby Khin Chong & Aaron Chong CY (News Assistant) | 24 December 2014.

General Update: Consumer Spendingby Chong FN - 30 December 2014

Average price of a gallon of gasoline in the U.S declined further in December, after falling more than 20 cents during November. Subsequently, U.S consumer spending accelerated in November, showing positive sign of U.S economy gaining positive momentum. U.S stocks, are posting modest gains after a quiet, post-holiday day of trading. While strengthening labor market and lower gasoline prices are helpful in cushioning the economy from slowing growth in China and the euro zone, and a recession in Japan. China’s consumers, on the other hands, remain elusive with lower consumption to GDP, as compared to US whereby its 70% of GDP is from personal consumption. However, China with the world’s largest e-commerce market at their fingertips, seems poised to become the next consumption superpower. More consumers are evolving from the low end market to the middle and high end, which leads the consumer markets to be increasingly cosmopolitan, luxury minded and online.

Page 5: SJKV Newsletter #04

Please read the disclaimer page. Stock investment involves risks and the stock market is volatile. Successive JK Ventures Sdn. Bhd. (M) does not accept any investment funds or investment deals from public or subscribers. Our staffs or representatives will never offer fund packages, asset management services or any stock broking related services. Information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, they are given for information only, we do not warrant its accuracy. The price of any particular security may vary over time. Investing in it may cause one to incur financial loss. You should obtain advice from financial services licensee before making any financial decisions.

Stock Market News Update : Iron Ore

Iron ore and oil have been known as one of the main commodities for years, now both are on their biggest decline in over five years. Global iron ore producers faces another wave of negative impact after Australia's Department of Industry slashed its iron ore price estimate by a third due to surging output, which has outpaced Chinese demand and growth, creating a surplus. Ore hitting $66.84 on December 23, the lowest in more than five years, based on data from the Metal Bulletin Ltd. Iron ore prices will average $63/metric ton versus $94/ton forecast in September and this year’s expected average of $88 according to the government’s latest quarterly report.

China imports more than two-thirds of the global seaborne trade expected to hit 1.4 billion tonnes in 2015 and forges nearly as much steel as the rest of the world combined. The iron ore price roared ahead on Tuesday with Northern Chinese import prices surging nearly 5% on an improving outlook for the Chinese economy. The 62% Fe benchmark import price including freight and insurance at the port of Tinjian tracked by The SteelIndex added $3.30 or 4.9% to $71.20 a tonne, the highest since November 18. Beijing is attempting to accelerate the slowest GDP growth rate in decades, expected to hit 7% in 2015. Despite the tepid economy, the country would still be adding some $700 billion to gross domestic product in 2015 (and that’s excluding Hong Kong).

Source: Index Mundi

General Update: Gold by Khin Chong & Aaron Chong CY (News Assistant) - 30 December 2014

Gold price went up slightly higher than what we expected, thanks to weaker performance on equities. As dollar is approaching near 9 year high against other currencies, gold price tend to stay on hold. Price rose 0.4% to $1,1857.40 per ounce. Most of the time, as stocks decline and financial market facing uncertainty, it triggers some bids for gold. For example, the recent plunge in oil price will push gold price higher in the coming months, it has already climbed up 5% to 7%. Gold slumped 28% in 2013 which shifted investors demand on the robust U.S economy and better-yielding stocks.

Gold added to sharp overnight gains on Wednesday as global equities took a hit from the risk-averse sentiment in the market, triggering safe-haven bids for the metal. Bullion was on track to end the year on a steady note with prices holding flat after a turbulent 2013, when prices slumped for the first time in 13 years. For more information on Gold updates, please check your inbox for our coming “What’s Next” update. Will be published and sent early January 2015.

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Please read the disclaimer page. Stock investment involves risks and the stock market is volatile. Successive JK Ventures Sdn. Bhd. (M) does not accept any investment funds or investment deals from public or subscribers. Our staffs or representatives will never offer fund packages, asset management services or any stock broking related services. Information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, they are given for information only, we do not warrant its accuracy. The price of any particular security may vary over time. Investing in it may cause one to incur financial loss. You should obtain advice from financial services licensee before making any financial decisions.

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