"Single CMO" Management Committee 18 March 2010 Review of the situation on the EU Beef and Veal...
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Transcript of "Single CMO" Management Committee 18 March 2010 Review of the situation on the EU Beef and Veal...
"Single CMO" Management Committee
18 March 2010
Review of the situation on the EU Beef and Veal Market
DG AGRI, European Commission – 18 March 2010 2
Bovine Livestock in Dec 2009 Source : Newcronos, EUROSTAT
%Var %Var %Var %Var
Dec 2009 2009 2009 2009
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2008 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2008 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2008 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2008
BE 2 604 2 607 2 573 2 538 715 703 711 684 509 521 508 506 1 380 1 383 1 354 1 348BG 630 637 611 574 548 -4.6% 180 181 167 155 143 -7.6% 53 55 54 51 55 +7.0% 389 392 381 359 342 -4.8%CZ 1 352 1 390 1 367 1 358 1 356 -0.2% 400 415 408 397 399 +0.4% 310 320 315 320 310 -3.3% 642 655 644 641 647 +1.0%DK 1 572 1 579 1 545 1 599 1 621 +1.4% 523 536 507 538 547 +1.7% 298 298 294 297 307 +3.4% 751 745 743 764 766 +0.3%DE 12 919 12 677 12 707 12 988 12 897 -0.7% 4 022 3 922 3 976 4 015 3 931 -2.1% 3 036 2 994 2 973 3 087 3 116 +1.0% 5 861 5 761 5 758 5 886 5 850 -0.6%EE 252 245 241 238 235 -1.2% 68 66 65 66 64 -2.7% 53 52 51 47 48 +2.3% 131 128 125 125 123 -1.8%IE 6 192 6 002 5 902 5 935 1 693 1 636 1 634 1 652 1 429 1 354 1 311 1 330 3 070 3 012 2 957 2 953
GR 665 683 682 682 675 -1.0% 196 191 194 201 181 -10.0% 157 126 133 130 135 +3.8% 312 366 355 351 359 +2.3%ES 6 464 6 184 6 585 6 020 6 001 -0.3% 2 254 2 234 2 431 2 028 2 052 +1.2% 751 753 774 759 688 -9.4% 3 470 3 196 3 380 3 234 3 261 +0.8%FR 18 930 18 902 19 124 19 366 19 199 -0.9% 5 056 5 011 5 070 5 069 4 882 -3.7% 3 476 3 542 3 611 3 743 3 755 +0.3% 10 398 10 349 10 443 10 554 10 563 +0.1%IT 6 460 6 340 6 577 6 486 6 447 -0.6% 1 922 1 948 1 929 1 904 1 808 -5.1% 1 413 1 402 1 436 1 481 1 413 -4.6% 2 920 2 760 2 918 2 794 2 882 +3.1%CY 58 56 56 56 54 -2.7% 22 20 20 21 19 -5.8% 11 12 10 10 10 -2.0% 25 24 25 25 25 -0.4%LV 385 377 399 380 378 -0.5% 119 108 115 108 107 -0.9% 60 63 73 66 67 +0.9% 207 207 211 206 204 -0.8%LT 800 839 788 771 759 -1.5% 201 221 72 182 183 +0.4% 137 160 7 141 147 +4.2% 463 457 456 448 429 -4.1%LU 184 186 193 196 195 -0.7% 52 51 53 53 51 -3.9% 40 42 44 45 44 -0.7% 93 93 96 98 99 +1.1%HU 708 702 705 701 700 -0.1% 195 191 190 190 189 -0.5% 140 150 150 146 156 +6.8% 374 362 365 365 355 -2.7%MT 20 19 19 18 16 -8.4% 6 5 5 4 4 -4.5% 5 5 5 5 4 -17.4% 9 9 9 9 8 -4.6%NL 3 746 3 673 3 820 3 996 3 998 +0.1% 1 416 1 424 1 505 1 586 1 583 -0.2% 642 620 620 612 640 +4.6% 1 688 1 629 1 695 1 799 1 775 -1.3%AT 2 011 2 003 2 000 1 997 2 026 +1.5% 628 632 634 637 643 +1.1% 436 435 437 431 446 +3.4% 946 936 929 930 937 +0.8%PL 5 385 5 281 5 406 5 564 5 590 +0.5% 1 308 1 258 1 344 1 385 1 419 +2.4% 992 1 033 1 053 1 096 1 193 +8.9% 3 084 2 991 3 008 3 083 2 978 -3.4%PT 1 441 1 407 1 443 1 439 1 396 -3.0% 384 375 392 371 346 -6.7% 234 215 223 239 219 -8.4% 822 817 828 829 831 +0.2%RO 2 861 2 934 2 819 2 684 2 503 -6.7% 709 741 714 666 621 -6.7% 236 280 277 285 266 -6.7% 1 871 1 872 1 795 1 703 1 588 -6.7%SI 453 454 480 470 473 +0.6% 136 137 149 145 147 +1.3% 119 121 125 122 123 +0.9% 198 197 205 203 203 -0.0%SK 528 508 502 488 472 -3.4% 155 151 146 144 137 -4.7% 104 101 103 97 94 -3.2% 269 256 253 248 241 -2.9%FI 945 929 903 907 908 +0.1% 322 313 304 304 305 +0.1% 239 238 228 226 225 -0.5% 385 378 371 376 379 +0.6%SE 1 533 1 516 1 517 1 505 1 482 -1.6% 494 495 495 493 479 -2.8% 373 360 364 350 353 +1.1% 666 661 668 663 649 -2.0%UK 10 545 10 335 10 075 9 910 3 033 2 938 2 844 2 839 2 610 2 520 2 457 2 424 4 901 4 877 4 775 4 646EU 89 641 88 463 89 037 88 866 69 930 -0.8% 26 207 25 903 26 074 25 836 20 241 -2.0% 17 862 17 770 17 639 18 046 13 814 +0.2% 45 324 44 510 44 747 44 638 35 494 -0.6%
BOVINE > 2 YearBOVINE 1-2 YearBOVINE < 1 YearTOTAL LIVESTOCK
DG AGRI, European Commission – 18 March 2010 3
Bovine Livestock in Dec 2009 Source : Newcronos, EUROSTAT
%Var %Var %Var
Dec 2009 2009 2009
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2008 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2008 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2008
BE 1 049 1 057 1 035 1 030 548 532 524 518 501 525 510 512BG 359 361 350 330 313 -5.4% 348 350 336 315 297 -5.7% 12 11 14 16 16 +1.3%CZ 559 568 559 554 556 +0.4% 437 417 407 400 384 -4.0% 122 151 152 154 172 +11.8%DK 653 654 656 674 683 +1.3% 558 555 551 566 574 +1.4% 95 99 105 108 108 idemDE 4 895 4 797 4 829 4 962 4 899 -1.3% 4 164 4 054 4 087 4 229 4 169 -1.4% 732 742 741 733 730 -0.5%EE 118 115 112 109 106 -2.3% 113 109 103 100 96 -4.6% 5 6 9 8 10 +24.4%IE 2 251 2 216 2 205 2 220 1 101 1 087 1 088 1 105 1 150 1 129 1 117 1 115
GR 289 306 295 307 310 +1.0% 152 168 150 154 145 -5.8% 137 138 145 153 165 +7.8%ES 2 972 2 774 2 974 2 834 2 880 +1.6% 1 018 942 903 888 852 -4.1% 1 954 1 832 2 071 1 945 2 028 +4.2%FR 7 924 7 876 7 921 7 981 7 823 -2.0% 3 895 3 799 3 759 3 794 3 673 -3.2% 4 029 4 077 4 163 4 187 4 150 -0.9%IT 2 314 2 233 2 280 2 203 2 252 +2.2% 1 842 1 814 1 839 1 831 1 878 +2.6% 472 419 441 372 374 +0.5%CY 25 24 24 24 23 -1.7% 25 24 24 24 23 -1.7% 0 0LV 193 192 196 183 181 -1.1% 185 182 180 170 166 -2.9% 8 10 15 13 16 +22.0%LT 424 411 415 409 390 -4.5% 417 399 405 395 375 -5.1% 7 12 10 14 16 +11.5%LU 71 75 73 78 78 -0.1% 41 46 40 46 46 idem 30 28 33 32 32 -0.3%HU 334 322 322 324 312 -3.7% 285 268 266 263 248 -5.7% 49 53 56 61 64 +4.9%MT 8 8 8 7 7 -4.1% 8 8 8 7 7 -4.2% 0 0 0 0 0 idemNL 1 557 1 515 1 555 1 676 1 646 -1.8% 1 486 1 443 1 490 1 587 1 562 -1.6% 71 72 89 88 85 -3.4%AT 805 799 796 797 798 +0.1% 534 527 525 530 533 +0.5% 271 271 271 267 265 -0.8%PL 2 801 2 684 2 739 2 772 2 678 -3.4% 2 755 2 637 2 677 2 697 2 585 -4.2% 46 47 61 75 93 +24.4%PT 726 718 730 726 717 -1.3% 324 307 306 301 293 -2.6% 402 411 424 425 424 -0.3%RO 1 653 1 665 1 604 1 511 1 410 -6.7% 1 625 1 639 1 573 1 483 1 384 -6.7% 28 26 31 28 26 -6.8%SI 177 173 178 176 174 -1.1% 120 113 117 113 113 -0.3% 57 61 60 63 61 -2.4%SK 230 219 216 211 204 -3.4% 199 185 180 174 163 -6.6% 31 34 36 38 42 +10.9%FI 349 339 332 337 338 +0.3% 313 309 296 288 286 -0.9% 36 40 45 49 53 +7.4%SE 555 552 549 547 533 -2.4% 391 385 366 366 354 -3.1% 164 167 183 181 179 -1.0%UK 3 747 3 720 3 640 3 523 2 007 2 005 1 977 1 903 1 741 1 715 1 663 1 621EU 37 037 36 370 36 589 36 504 29 310 -1.4% 24 891 24 305 24 176 24 246 20 203 -2.5% 12 147 12 075 12 445 12 258 9 107 +1.1%
COWS DAIRY COWS OTHER COWS
DG AGRI, European Commission – 18 March 2010 4
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
in 1
000
To
nn
es
EU 2
EU 10
EU 15
Drop Page Fields Here
year
Data
Beef and Veal Production Source : Newcronos, EUROSTAT
DG AGRI, European Commission – 18 March 2010 5
Change in beef & veal production
(GIP)-forecasted & communicated slaughter 2009 compared to 2008
-100,0%
-80,0%
-60,0%
-40,0%
-20,0%
0,0%
20,0%
be bg cz dk de ee ie gr es fr it cy lv lt lu hu mt nl at pl pt ro si sk fi se uk EU
2009/ 2008 Slaughterdata
GIP Forecast 2009/ 2008
DG AGRI, European Commission – 18 March 2010 6
EU exports of beef and live animals (1):Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)
DestinationsDestinationstonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes %
Russia 138 372 39.3% 145 342 49.7% 87 277 35.2% 102 368 35.1% 50 660 20.4%
Croatia 14 405 4.1% 9 723 3.3% 16 460 6.6% 19 919 6.8% 24 905 10.0%
Switzerland 5 027 1.4% 10 162 3.5% 14 457 5.8% 25 965 8.9% 19 061 7.7%
Ivory coast 2 808 0.8% 4 938 1.7% 6 949 2.8% 8 969 3.1% 13 380 5.4%
Angola 19 066 5.4% 8 628 3.0% 11 087 4.5% 7 775 2.7% 7 488 3.0%
Nigeria 9 628 2.7% 172 0.1% 16 174 6.5% 2 265 0.8% 167 0.1%
EXTRA EU 25/27 351 905 292 382 247 730 291 622 248 199
% change - 17% - 15% + 18% - 14.9%
2005 2006 2007 Jan-Dec 092008
DG AGRI, European Commission – 18 March 2010 7
EU exports of beef and live animals (2):Trade figures (COMEXT)
EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal ( 1000 EUR)
208 907 212 894126 369
47 54883 186
74 081
62 75577 594
83 340
201 750
255 749
297 481
540 433
652 296612 095
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
J an- Dec 07 J an- Dec 08 J an- Dec 09
1,
00
0
EU
R
Russi a Swi t zer l and Cr oat i a
I vor y Coast Mor occo Ot her dest i nat i ons
EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal ( Tonnes cwe)
87 277 102 36850 660
14 45725 965
19 061
16 460
19 919
24 905
119 359
130 823
135 427
247 730
291 622
248 199
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
J an- Dec 07 J an- Dec 08 J an- Dec 09
To
nn
es
c
w
Russi a Swi t zer l and Cr oat i a
I vor y Coast Mor occo Ot her dest i nat i ons
DG AGRI, European Commission – 18 March 2010 8
Exports of BEEF products
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
|J an06
2006 |J an07
2007 |J an08
2008 |J an09
2009 |J an10
in Tonnes cwe
LI VE ANI MALS FRESH FROZEN PREPARED OTHERS
DG AGRI, European Commission – 18 March 2010 9
EU exports of beef and live animals (3):Licence applications for exports with refunds (tonnes cwe)
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
Live animals Fresh beef Frozen beef Offal Tinned beef
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/2009
Jul 09 - Jan 10
Evolution per category (tonnes cwe)Evolution per category (tonnes cwe) Evolution in export structure (% share)Evolution in export structure (% share)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 Jul 09 - Jan10
Live animals Fresh beef Frozen beef Offal Tinned beef
Live animals
Fresh beef
Frozen beef
OffalsTinned
beef Total
9 136 31 791 13 734 0 874 55 535
10 008 22 205 5 592 0 936 38 740
9.5% -30.2% -59.3% 7.1% -30.2%
Jul 09 - Jan 10
% change
Jul 08 - Jan09 08
DG AGRI, European Commission – 18 March 2010 10
tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes %
Brazil 348 695 61.8% 331 762 64.7% 363 839 65.4% 171 454 43.4% 149 007 34.6%
Argentina 113 244 20.1% 82 865 16.1% 97 656 17.6% 92 924 23.5% 122 494 28.4%
Uruguay 45 842 8.1% 45 350 8.8% 39 544 7.1% 66 402 16.8% 79 144 18.4%
Australia 10 247 1.8% 12 366 2.4% 10 019 1.8% 12 957 3.3% 16 937 3.9%
New Zealand 5 978 1.1% 7 195 1.4% 5 756 1.0% 12 455 3.2% 15 783 3.7%
Namibia 12 573 2.2% 8 063 1.6% 10 467 1.9% 10 348 2.6% 12 457 2.9%
Botswana 10 359 1.8% 7 118 1.4% 13 929 2.5% 10 395 2.6% 11 452 2.7%
USA 832 0.1% 956 0.2% 2 746 0.5% 6 547 1.7% 9 609 2.2%
Switzerland 2 633 0.5% 1 979 0.4% 2 855 0.5% 2 919 0.7% 4 394 1.0%
Chile 2 115 0.4% 2 036 0.4% 2 844 0.5% 2 550 0.6% 3 158 0.7%
Serbia 955 0.2% 1 912 0.4% 2 324 0.4% 1 784 0.5% 990 0.2%
EXTRA EU 25/27564 517 513 160 556 024 395 063 431 182
% change - 9% + 8% - 29% + 9.1%
2005 2006 2007 Jan-Dec 092008
EU imports of beef and live animals (1):Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)
OriginsOrigins
DG AGRI, European Commission – 18 March 2010 11
EU imports of beef and live animals (2):Trade figures (COMEXT)
I MPORTS of Beef & Veal i nt o EU ( Tonnes cwe)
363 839
171 454 149 007
39 544
66 402 79 144
97 656
92 924 122 494
39 211
38 87147 818
556 024
395 063431 182
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
J an- Dec 07 J an- Dec 08 J an- Dec 09
I nTonnes
cwe
Br azi l Ur uguay Ar gent i na
Aust r al i a New Zeal and Ot her dest i nat i ons
I MPORTS of Beef & Veal i nt o EU ( 1000 EUR)
1 044 667
504 013 429 235
152 547
309 226273 438
476 578
558 972507 681
143 764
157 047191 616
1 658 744
1 886 715
1 536 649
0
200 000
400 000
600 000
800 000
1 000 000
1 200 000
1 400 000
1 600 000
1 800 000
2 000 000
J an- Dec 07 J an- Dec 08 J an- Dec 09
i n 1000EUR
Br azi l Ur uguay Ar gent i na
Aust r al i a New Zeal and Ot her dest i nat i ons
DG AGRI, European Commission – 18 March 2010 12
I mpor t s of BEEF product s
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
|J an06
2006 |J an07
2007 |J an08
2008 |J an09
2009 |J an10
in Tonnes cwe
FRESH FROZEN PREPARED OTHERS
DG AGRI, European Commission – 18 March 2010 13
452403
446401
436 429398
491513 529
565513
556
395431
1 263
1 1711 120
825
1 028
736
598 598
481455
352
292248
292248
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 J an-Dec 09
Tonnes cwe
I MPORTS EXPORTS
EU net import of beef and live animals
DG AGRI, European Commission – 18 March 2010 14
EU beef imports from BrazilTrade figures (COMEXT data – tonnes cwe)
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
Jan
05
Ma
r 0
5
Ma
y 0
5
Jul 0
5
Se
p 0
5
No
v 0
5
Jan
06
Ma
r 0
6
Ma
y 0
6
Jul 0
6
Se
p 0
6
No
v 0
6
Jan
07
Ma
r 0
7
Ma
y 0
7
Jul 0
7
Se
p 0
7
No
v 0
7
Jan
08
Ma
r 0
8
Ma
y 0
8
Jul 0
8
Se
p 0
8
No
v 0
8
Jan
09
Ma
r 0
9
Ma
y 0
9
Jul 0
9
Se
p 0
9
No
v 0
9
Fresh Boneless
Frozen Boneless Other
Corned Beef
Prepared Cooked Bovine
TOTAL
DG AGRI, European Commission – 18 March 2010 15
Evolution in EU carcass prices (2):Young bull carcasses (A R3 – €/100 kg cw)
325.86 321.83% change y/y : - 2.3% % change y/y : - 2.2%
Price in week 9 : Average price in February 2010 :
275
300
325
350
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
2003-2007 Avg 2008 2009 2010
DG AGRI, European Commission – 18 March 2010 16
Evolution in EU carcass prices (3):Steer carcasses (C R3 – €/100 kg cw)
296.92 291.98% change y/y : - 4.4% % change y/y : - 4.0%
Price in week 9 : Average price in February 2010 :
260
280
300
320
340
360
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
2003-2007 Avg 2008 2009 2010
DG AGRI, European Commission – 18 March 2010 17
Evolution in EU carcass prices (4):Cow carcasses (D O3 – €/100 kg cw)
228.60 211.30% change y/y : - 1.1% % change y/y : - 6.7%
Price in week 9 : Average price in February 2010 :
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
2003-2007 Avg 2008 2009 2010
DG AGRI, European Commission – 18 March 2010 18
Evolution in EU carcass prices (5):Heifer carcasses (E R3 – €/100 kg cw)
310.34 304.43% change y/y : - 4.3% % change y/y : - 3.9%
Price in week 9 : Average price in February 2010 :
290
300
310
320
330
340
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
2003-2007 Avg 2008 2009 2010
DG AGRI, European Commission – 18 March 2010 19
Evolution in EU prices for live bovines (1)Male store cattle (6-12 months; ≤ 300 kg – €/100 kg live weight)
223.86 209.59% change y/y : + 8.4% % change y/y : + 9.9%
Price in week 9 : Average price in February 2010 :
190
200
210
220
230
240
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
2003-2007 Avg 2008 2009 2010
DG AGRI, European Commission – 18 March 2010 20
Evolution in EU prices for live bovines (2)Male calves aged between 8 days and 4 weeks (€/head)
203.96 180.33% change y/y : + 18.4% % change y/y : + 14.3%
Price in week 9 : Average price in February 2010 :
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
2003-2007 Avg 2008 2009 2010
DG AGRI, European Commission – 18 March 2010 21
Evolution in EU prices for live bovines (3)Butchers calves (€/100 kg cw)
514.69 521.60% change y/y : + 5.2% % change y/y : + 9.1%
Price in week 9 : Average price in February 2010 :
400
450
500
550
600
650
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53
2003-2007 Avg 2008 2009 2010