“Beef Forecast Group” Brussels, 14 April 2010 Review of the situation on the EU Beef and Veal...

“Beef Forecast Group”

Brussels, 14 April 2010

Review of the situation on the EU Beef and Veal Market

DG AGRI C4, European Commission 14 April 2010

2

Bovine Livestock in Dec 2009 (1) Source : Newcronos, EUROSTAT

%Var %Var %Var %Var

Dec 2009 2009 2009 2009

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2008 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2008 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2008 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2008

BE 2 604 2 607 2 573 2 538 2 504 * -1.3% 715 703 711 684 680 * -0.6% 509 521 508 506 497 * -1.8% 1 380 1 383 1 354 1 348 1 327 * -1.6%BG 630 637 611 574 548 -4.6% 180 181 167 155 143 -7.6% 53 55 54 51 55 +7.0% 389 392 381 359 342 -4.8%CZ 1 352 1 390 1 367 1 358 1 356 -0.2% 400 415 408 397 399 +0.4% 310 320 315 320 310 -3.3% 642 655 644 641 647 +1.0%DK 1 572 1 579 1 545 1 599 1 621 +1.4% 523 536 507 538 547 +1.7% 298 298 294 297 307 +3.4% 751 745 743 764 766 +0.3%DE 12 919 12 677 12 707 12 988 12 897 -0.7% 4 022 3 922 3 976 4 015 3 931 -2.1% 3 036 2 994 2 973 3 087 3 116 +1.0% 5 861 5 761 5 758 5 886 5 850 -0.6%EE 252 245 241 238 235 -1.2% 68 66 65 66 64 -2.7% 53 52 51 47 48 +2.3% 131 128 125 125 123 -1.8%IE 6 192 6 002 5 902 5 935 5 848 -1.5% 1 693 1 636 1 634 1 652 1 565 -5.2% 1 429 1 354 1 311 1 330 1 324 -0.4% 3 070 3 012 2 957 2 953 2 959 +0.2%

GR 665 683 682 682 675 -1.0% 196 191 194 201 181 -10.0% 157 126 133 130 135 +3.8% 312 366 355 351 359 +2.3%ES 6 464 6 184 6 585 6 020 6 001 -0.3% 2 254 2 234 2 431 2 028 2 052 +1.2% 751 753 774 759 688 -9.4% 3 470 3 196 3 380 3 234 3 261 +0.8%FR 18 930 18 902 19 124 19 366 19 199 -0.9% 5 056 5 011 5 070 5 069 4 882 -3.7% 3 476 3 542 3 611 3 743 3 755 +0.3% 10 398 10 349 10 443 10 554 10 563 +0.1%IT 6 460 6 340 6 577 6 486 6 447 -0.6% 1 922 1 948 1 929 1 904 1 808 -5.1% 1 413 1 402 1 436 1 481 1 413 -4.6% 2 920 2 760 2 918 2 794 2 882 +3.1%CY 58 56 56 56 54 -2.7% 22 20 20 21 19 -5.8% 11 12 10 10 10 -2.0% 25 24 25 25 25 -0.4%LV 385 377 399 380 378 -0.5% 119 108 115 108 107 -0.9% 60 63 73 66 67 +0.9% 207 207 211 206 204 -0.8%LT 800 839 788 771 759 -1.5% 201 221 72 182 183 +0.4% 137 160 7 141 147 +4.2% 463 457 456 448 429 -4.1%LU 184 186 193 196 195 -0.7% 52 51 53 53 51 -3.9% 40 42 44 45 44 -0.7% 93 93 96 98 99 +1.1%HU 708 702 705 701 700 -0.1% 195 191 190 190 189 -0.5% 140 150 150 146 156 +6.8% 374 362 365 365 355 -2.7%MT 20 19 19 18 16 -8.4% 6 5 5 4 4 -4.5% 5 5 5 5 4 -17.4% 9 9 9 9 8 -4.6%NL 3 746 3 673 3 820 3 996 3 998 +0.1% 1 416 1 424 1 505 1 586 1 583 -0.2% 642 620 620 612 640 +4.6% 1 688 1 629 1 695 1 799 1 775 -1.3%AT 2 011 2 003 2 000 1 997 2 026 +1.5% 628 632 634 637 643 +1.1% 436 435 437 431 446 +3.4% 946 936 929 930 937 +0.8%PL 5 385 5 281 5 406 5 564 5 590 +0.5% 1 308 1 258 1 344 1 385 1 419 +2.4% 992 1 033 1 053 1 096 1 193 +8.9% 3 084 2 991 3 008 3 083 2 978 -3.4%PT 1 441 1 407 1 443 1 439 1 396 -3.0% 384 375 392 371 346 -6.7% 234 215 223 239 219 -8.4% 822 817 828 829 831 +0.2%RO 2 861 2 934 2 819 2 684 2 503 -6.7% 709 741 714 666 621 -6.7% 236 280 277 285 266 -6.7% 1 871 1 872 1 795 1 703 1 588 -6.7%SI 453 454 480 470 473 +0.6% 136 137 149 145 147 +1.3% 119 121 125 122 123 +0.9% 198 197 205 203 203 -0.0%SK 528 508 502 488 472 -3.4% 155 151 146 144 137 -4.7% 104 101 103 97 94 -3.2% 269 256 253 248 241 -2.9%FI 945 929 903 907 908 +0.1% 322 313 304 304 305 +0.1% 239 238 228 226 225 -0.5% 385 378 371 376 379 +0.6%SE 1 533 1 516 1 517 1 505 1 482 -1.6% 494 495 495 493 479 -2.8% 373 360 364 350 353 +1.1% 666 661 668 663 649 -2.0%UK 10 545 10 335 10 075 9 910 9 984 +0.7% 3 033 2 938 2 844 2 839 2 850 +0.4% 2 610 2 520 2 457 2 424 2 444 +0.8% 4 901 4 877 4 775 4 646 4 689 +0.9%EU 89 641 88 463 89 037 88 866 88 266 -0.7% 26 207 25 903 26 074 25 836 25 336 -1.9% 17 862 17 770 17 639 18 046 18 079 +0.2% 45 324 44 510 44 747 44 638 44 469 -0.4%

EU %Var are calculated considering only figures available in 2008 * : DG ADRI Estimations

BOVINE > 2 YearBOVINE 1-2 YearBOVINE < 1 YearTOTAL LIVESTOCK


3


%Var %Var %Var

Dec 2009 2009 2009

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2008 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2008 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2008

BE 1 049 1 057 1 035 1 030 1 014 * -1.6% 548 532 524 518 511 * -1.4% 501 525 510 512 503 * -1.8%BG 359 361 350 330 313 -5.4% 348 350 336 315 297 -5.7% 12 11 14 16 16 +1.3%CZ 559 568 559 554 556 +0.4% 437 417 407 400 384 -4.0% 122 151 152 154 172 +11.8%DK 653 654 656 674 683 +1.3% 558 555 551 566 574 +1.4% 95 99 105 108 108 idemDE 4 895 4 797 4 829 4 962 4 899 -1.3% 4 164 4 054 4 087 4 229 4 169 -1.4% 732 742 741 733 730 -0.5%EE 118 115 112 109 106 -2.3% 113 109 103 100 96 -4.6% 5 6 9 8 10 +24.4%IE 2 251 2 216 2 205 2 220 2 177 -2.0% 1 101 1 087 1 088 1 105 1 107 +0.2% 1 150 1 129 1 117 1 115 1 070 -4.1%

GR 289 306 295 307 310 +1.0% 152 168 150 154 145 -5.8% 137 138 145 153 165 +7.8%ES 2 972 2 774 2 974 2 834 2 880 +1.6% 1 018 942 903 888 852 -4.1% 1 954 1 832 2 071 1 945 2 028 +4.2%FR 7 924 7 876 7 921 7 981 7 823 -2.0% 3 895 3 799 3 759 3 794 3 673 -3.2% 4 029 4 077 4 163 4 187 4 150 -0.9%IT 2 314 2 233 2 280 2 203 2 252 +2.2% 1 842 1 814 1 839 1 831 1 878 +2.6% 472 419 441 372 374 +0.5%CY 25 24 24 24 23 -1.7% 25 24 24 24 23 -1.7% 0 0LV 193 192 196 183 181 -1.1% 185 182 180 170 166 -2.9% 8 10 15 13 16 +22.0%LT 424 411 415 409 390 -4.5% 417 399 405 395 375 -5.1% 7 12 10 14 16 +11.5%LU 71 75 73 78 78 -0.1% 41 46 40 46 46 idem 30 28 33 32 32 -0.3%HU 334 322 322 324 312 -3.7% 285 268 266 263 248 -5.7% 49 53 56 61 64 +4.9%MT 8 8 8 7 7 -4.1% 8 8 8 7 7 -4.2% 0 0 0 0 0 idemNL 1 557 1 515 1 555 1 676 1 646 -1.8% 1 486 1 443 1 490 1 587 1 562 -1.6% 71 72 89 88 85 -3.4%AT 805 799 796 797 798 +0.1% 534 527 525 530 533 +0.5% 271 271 271 267 265 -0.8%PL 2 801 2 684 2 739 2 772 2 678 -3.4% 2 755 2 637 2 677 2 697 2 585 -4.2% 46 47 61 75 93 +24.4%PT 726 718 730 726 717 -1.3% 324 307 306 301 293 -2.6% 402 411 424 425 424 -0.3%RO 1 653 1 665 1 604 1 511 1 410 -6.7% 1 625 1 639 1 573 1 483 1 384 -6.7% 28 26 31 28 26 -6.8%SI 177 173 178 176 174 -1.1% 120 113 117 113 113 -0.3% 57 61 60 63 61 -2.4%SK 230 219 216 211 204 -3.4% 199 185 180 174 163 -6.6% 31 34 36 38 42 +10.9%FI 349 339 332 337 338 +0.3% 313 309 296 288 286 -0.9% 36 40 45 49 53 +7.4%SE 555 552 549 547 533 -2.4% 391 385 366 366 354 -3.1% 164 167 183 181 179 -1.0%UK 3 747 3 720 3 640 3 523 3 515 -0.2% 2 007 2 005 1 977 1 903 1 876 -1.4% 1 741 1 715 1 663 1 621 1 638 +1.0%EU 37 037 36 370 36 589 36 504 36 015 -1.3% 24 891 24 305 24 176 24 246 23 697 -2.3% 12 147 12 075 12 445 12 258 12 317 +0.5%

EU %Var are calculated considering only figures available in 2008 * : DG ADRI Estimations

COWS DAIRY COWS OTHER COWS


4


December survey 2009Cows as a % of the total bovine herd

Belgium = 2008

0,0%

25,0%

50,0%

75,0%

100,0%

EU27

be bg cz dk de ee ie gr es fr it cy lv lt lu hu mt nl at pl pt ro si sk fi se uk

Dairy cows Other cows


5


December survey of total bovine herdBelgium 2009 = 2008

0

5.000

10.000

15.000


10

00

he

ad

s

2007

2008

2009


6

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

in 1

000

To

nn

es

EU 2

EU 10

EU 15

Drop Page Fields Here

year

Data

Beef and Veal Production Source : Newcronos, EUROSTAT


7

Change in beef & veal production (GIP)-forecasted & communicated slaughter

2009 compared to 2008

-100.0%

-80.0%

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

be bg cz dk de ee ie gr es fr it cy lv lt lu hu mt nl at pl pt ro si sk fi se uk EU

2009/ 2008 Slaughterdata

GIP Forecast 2009/ 2008


8

Bovine production by Type of Bovine 2009based on communicated data without "unofficial" slaughter"

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400


1000 T

on

n

Cows

Heifers

Bulls & Steers

Y. Cattle

Calves


9

EU exports of beef and live animals (1):Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)

DestinationsDestinationstonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes %

Russia 138 372 39.3% 145 342 49.7% 87 277 35.2% 102 368 35.1% 50 660 20.4%

Croatia 14 405 4.1% 9 723 3.3% 16 460 6.6% 19 919 6.8% 24 905 10.0%

Switzerland 5 027 1.4% 10 162 3.5% 14 457 5.8% 25 965 8.9% 19 061 7.7%

Ivory coast 2 808 0.8% 4 938 1.7% 6 949 2.8% 8 969 3.1% 13 380 5.4%

Angola 19 066 5.4% 8 628 3.0% 11 087 4.5% 7 775 2.7% 7 488 3.0%

Nigeria 9 628 2.7% 172 0.1% 16 174 6.5% 2 265 0.8% 167 0.1%

EXTRA EU 25/27 351 905 292 382 247 730 291 622 248 199

% change - 17% - 15% + 18% - 14.9%

2005 2006 2007 Jan-Dec 092008


10

EU exports of beef and live animals (2):Trade figures (COMEXT)

EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal ( 1000 EUR)

9. 088 11. 785

4. 205

4. 4374. 266

5. 034

2. 621

5. 228

3. 294

13. 650

17. 200

23. 985

30. 398

39. 909 39. 407

0

5. 000

10. 000

15. 000

20. 000

25. 000

30. 000

35. 000

40. 000

45. 000

J an- J an 08 J an- J an 09 J an- J an 10

1,

00

0

EU

R

Russi a Swi t zer l and Cr oat i a

I vor y Coast Mor occo Ot her dest i nat i ons

EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal ( Tonnes cwe)

4. 027 3. 9452. 206

1. 560 1. 231

1. 312

724 1. 454

1. 000

7. 6068. 946

10. 454

14. 669

16. 498 16. 512

0

2. 000

4. 000

6. 000

8. 000

10. 000

12. 000

14. 000

16. 000

18. 000


To

nn

es

c

w

Russi a Swi t zer l and Cr oat i a

I vor y Coast Mor occo Ot her dest i nat i ons


11

Exports of BEEF products

0

5. 000

10. 000

15. 000

20. 000

25. 000

30. 000

35. 000

|J an06

2006 |J an07

2007 |J an08

2008 |J an09

2009 |J an10

in Tonnes cwe

LI VE ANI MALS FRESH FROZEN PREPARED OTHERS


12

EU exports of beef and live animals (4):Licence applications for exports with refunds (tonnes cwe)

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

Live animals Fresh beef Frozen beef Offal Tinned beef

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/2009

Jul 09 - Jan 10

Evolution per category (tonnes cwe)Evolution per category (tonnes cwe) Evolution in export structure (% share)Evolution in export structure (% share)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 Jul 09 - Jan10

Live animals Fresh beef Frozen beef Offal Tinned beef

Live animals

Fresh beef

Frozen beef

OffalsTinned

beef Total

9 136 31 791 13 734 0 874 55 535

10 008 22 205 5 592 0 936 38 740

9.5% -30.2% -59.3% 7.1% -30.2%

Jul 09 - Jan 10

% change

Jul 08 - Jan09 08


13

EU imports of beef and live animals (1):Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)

OriginsOriginstonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes %

Brazil 348 695 61.8% 331 762 64.7% 363 839 65.4% 171 454 43.4% 149 007 34.6%

Argentina 113 244 20.1% 82 865 16.1% 97 656 17.6% 92 924 23.5% 122 494 28.4%

Uruguay 45 842 8.1% 45 350 8.8% 39 544 7.1% 66 402 16.8% 79 144 18.4%

Australia 10 247 1.8% 12 366 2.4% 10 019 1.8% 12 957 3.3% 16 937 3.9%

New Zealand 5 978 1.1% 7 195 1.4% 5 756 1.0% 12 455 3.2% 15 783 3.7%

Namibia 12 573 2.2% 8 063 1.6% 10 467 1.9% 10 348 2.6% 12 457 2.9%

Botswana 10 359 1.8% 7 118 1.4% 13 929 2.5% 10 395 2.6% 11 452 2.7%

USA 832 0.1% 956 0.2% 2 746 0.5% 6 547 1.7% 9 609 2.2%

Switzerland 2 633 0.5% 1 979 0.4% 2 855 0.5% 2 919 0.7% 4 394 1.0%

Chile 2 115 0.4% 2 036 0.4% 2 844 0.5% 2 550 0.6% 3 158 0.7%

Serbia 955 0.2% 1 912 0.4% 2 324 0.4% 1 784 0.5% 990 0.2%

EXTRA EU 25/27564 517 513 160 556 024 395 063 431 182

% change - 9% + 8% - 29% + 9.1%

2005 2006 2007 Jan-Dec 092008


14

EU imports of beef and live animals (2):Trade figures (COMEXT)

I MPORTS of Beef & Veal i nt o EU ( Tonnes cwe)

24. 106

9. 826 12. 498

4. 582

5. 2475. 782

7. 438

8. 1798. 349

1. 161

2. 218

4. 032

38. 414

27. 688

32. 348

0

5. 000

10. 000

15. 000

20. 000

25. 000

30. 000

35. 000

40. 000

45. 000


I nTonnes

cwe

Br azi l Ur uguay Ar gent i na

Aust r al i a New Zeal and Ot her dest i nat i ons

I MPORTS of Beef & Veal i nt o EU ( 1000 EUR)

70. 188

29. 912 36. 915

16. 133

18. 43818. 066

35. 524

32. 16931. 861

5. 691

10. 95016. 634

100. 571

132. 325

110. 460

0

20. 000

40. 000

60. 000

80. 000

100. 000

120. 000

140. 000


i n 1000EUR

Br azi l Ur uguay Ar gent i na

Aust r al i a New Zeal and Ot her dest i nat i ons


15

I mpor t s of BEEF product s

0

10. 000

20. 000

30. 000

40. 000

50. 000

60. 000

|J an06

2006 |J an07

2007 |J an08

2008 |J an09

2009 |J an10

in Tonnes cwe

FRESH FROZEN PREPARED OTHERS


16

452403

446401

436 429398

491513 529

565513

556

395431

32

1. 263

1. 1711. 120

825

1. 028

736

598 598

481455

352

292248

292248

17

0

200

400

600

800

1. 000

1. 200

1. 400

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 J an-J an 10

1000 Tonne

I MPORTS EXPORTS

EU net import of beef and live animals


17

EU beef imports from BrazilTrade figures (COMEXT data – tonnes cwe)

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

40.000

janv

05

févr

05

mar

s 05

avr

05

mai

05

juin

05

juil

05

août

05

sept

05

oct 0

5

nov

05

déc

05

janv

06

févr

06

mar

s 06

avr

06

mai

06

juin

06

juil

06

août

06

sept

06

oct 0

6

nov

06

déc

06

janv

07

févr

07

mar

s 07

avr

07

mai

07

juin

07

juil

07

août

07

sept

07

oct 0

7

nov

07

déc

07

janv

08

févr

08

mar

s 08

avr

08

mai

08

juin

08

juil

08

août

08

sept

08

oct 0

8

nov

08

déc

08

janv

09

févr

09

mar

s 09

avr

09

mai

09

juin

09

juil

09

août

09

sept

09

oct 0

9

nov

09

déc

09

janv

10

Fresh Boneless

Frozen Boneless Other

Corned Beef

Prepared Cooked Bovine

TOTAL


18

Evolution in EU carcass prices (1):Carcasses of adult male bovines (A/C price – €/100 kg cw)

% change y/y : % change y/y :Average price in mars 2010 : 315,6

- 3,2%142,2%% Reference Price in week 13 :- 2,5%

Price in week 13 : 316,2

222

245

267

289

311

334

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53

€/100 kg cwe

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

2003-2007 Avg 2008 2009 2010

% of Reference Price


19

Evolution in EU carcass prices (2):Young bull carcasses (A R3 – €/100 kg cw)

318,80 321,83% change y/y : - 2,7% % change y/y : - 2,2%

Price in week 13 : Average price in mars 2010 :

275

300

325

350

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53

2003-2007 Avg 2008 2009 2010


20

Evolution in EU carcass prices (3):Steer carcasses (C R3 – €/100 kg cw)



260

280

300

320

340

360

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53

2003-2007 Avg 2008 2009 2010


21

Evolution in EU carcass prices (4):Cow carcasses (D O3 – €/100 kg cw)



200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53

2003-2007 Avg 2008 2009 2010


22

Evolution in EU carcass prices (5):Heifer carcasses (E R3 – €/100 kg cw)



290

300

310

320

330

340

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53

2003-2007 Avg 2008 2009 2010


23

Evolution in EU prices for live bovines (1)Male store cattle (6-12 months; ≤ 300 kg – €/100 kg live weight)

225,99 209,59% change y/y : + 10,9% % change y/y : + 9,9%


190

200

210

220

230

240

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53

2003-2007 Avg 2008 2009 2010


24

Evolution in EU prices for live bovines (2)Male calves aged between 8 days and 4 weeks (€/head)



140

160

180

200

220

240

260

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53

2003-2007 Avg 2008 2009 2010


25

Evolution in EU prices for live bovines (3)Butchers calves (€/100 kg cw)



400

450

500

550

600

650

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53

2003-2007 Avg 2008 2009 2010


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2009 2010 2011

7.019 mio tonnes 6.980 mio tonnes 6.939 mio tonnes-2.3% -0.6% -0.6%

- 167 000 tonnes - 38 700 tonnes - 41 200 tonnes

2009 2010 2011

7.300 mio tonnes 7.285 mio tonnes 7.262 mio tonnes-2.1% -0.2% -0.3%

- 155 400 tonnes - 15 000 tonnes - 23 600 tonnes

2009 2010 2011

-281 000 tonnes -305 000 tonnes -323 000 tonnes

2009 2010 2011

317,47 €/100 kg 318,49 €/100 kg 321,75 €/100 kg- 0,3% + 0,3% + 1,0%

2009 2010 2011

231,26 €/100 kg 232,83 €/100 kg 235,52 €/100 kg- 7,3% + 0,7% + 1,2%

Only data, provided by Member States experts, are used

EU-15 carcass prices for cows

Balance production and consumption

EU-15 carcass prices for adult male bovines

Production in EU-15

Consumption in EU-15


27

Additional information and periodical updates

you can find on the following Web – Sites

http://circa.europa.eu/Public/irc/agri/ovins/library?l=/public_domain&vm=detailed&sb=Title

And

http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/markets/index_en.htm

http://circa.europa.eu/Public/irc/agri/ovins/library?l=/public_domain&vm=detailed&sb=Title

http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/markets/index_en.htm

“Beef Forecast Group” Brussels, 14 April 2010 Review of the situation on the EU Beef and Veal...

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Transcript of “Beef Forecast Group” Brussels, 14 April 2010 Review of the situation on the EU Beef and Veal...