COFISA Biotechnology Foresight: 2 Western Cape Workshop Report
Silimela King Sabata Dalindyebo Cofisa Conference Feb 2010 FINAL
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Transcript of Silimela King Sabata Dalindyebo Cofisa Conference Feb 2010 FINAL
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King Sabata DalindyeboMunicipality, Eastern Cape
Foresight Scenariosfor 2030
Cofisa Closing Conference
February 2010Silimela Development Services
www.silimelaafrica.com
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Scenario Planning asmanaging a creativetension:
# 1: Probabilistic Projections
and Models:Objective and professional
Past Trends Projected
Key Driving Forces Estimated
Infinite complex matrices
Modelling vectors of inter-dependent causation
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The Creative Tension inScenario Planning:
#2 : Collective Imagining :
Subjective and imaginative
Embraces all
Based upon the predictivepower of stories
A few plausible outcomes
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EXAMPLE: By 2050 people willtravel in flying cars, get much of
their power from renewable
energy and live a life of luxury ina world without borders
Optimistic image of the future that
emerged from a survey of young
adults in 27 countries worldwide
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YANG =
Probabilistic
YIN =Collective Imagining
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Local Development Challenges
Very high unemployment
Youth, old age and poverty dependency
Major disparity between rural and urban
Spatial remoteness Institutional complexity
Mthatha as a former homeland capital
Municipality struggling to come to termswith
Basic service delivery
Infrastructure backlogs
Financial viability
Short and long term planning
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The Process Intent
Bring together the views and insights of Government
Local business
Civil society organisations
Research institutions
in an inclusive and effective manner in order
to be able to stimulate a useful perspective on
the long term (2030) future.
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Process Challenges1. Mobilising a critical mass of stakeholders so as to be
able to conduct a truly strategic conversation
2. Buy in from municipality.
3. Engaging with the (recent) KSD 2030 Master Plan
4. Enabling all participants to share in the conversation
5. Balancing technical perspective with authenticthinking of participants.
6. Conducting the conversation skilfully
7. Introducing foresight into strategic decision making
in KSD
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Project Participation StructuresSteering Committee:
COFISA
Municipal Manager
NPDG
DBSA
Municipal Leadership Group (MLG)
Reference Group
Organised Business
Walter Sisulu and Rhodes University
Community Organisations
Provincial Government
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Key Steps in The Process
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Step One: Process Alignment (July
2009)
Previous research and policy documents
Stakeholder database Mobilisation & communication plan
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Step Two: Research Foundation
(June/ July 2009)
Probabilistic Analysis
Past KSD socio-economic trends
Three SA scenario exercises
Presidency
Dinokeng
COFISA Eastern Cape
Many international studies and
scenario exercises
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8 KEY DRIVING FORCES
1: The world becoming more joined up
2: Oil getting more scarce
3: The world getting hotter
4: Amazing new technology
5. World tourism boom6: Africa growing fast
7: South Africa at the crossroads
8: The Eastern Capes treasures for thefuture
S Th T h i l Ali (J l
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Step Three: Technical Alignment (July
2009)
COFISA Eastern Cape Biotech Scenarios
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Step Three
The Proto Scenario Quadrants
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Step Four: Municipal Leadership
Alignment (September 2009)
Implications of scenarios process for the KSDVision 2030 and Master Plan
Explanation of scenario planning concepts andscenarios affecting KSD
Agreeing on how best to engage otherstakeholders in a scenario building process
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Step Five: Scenario Generation
(October 2009)
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Participants were asked: tellus how these three toddlers
in different settings grow upto 2030?
Example Lulama, born 15 October
2008 in Ngangelizwe
Township in Mthatha
22 years old in 2030
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What happens to
Lulama... Completed Matric in Ngangelizwe
Received bursary from KSD
Has honours in Environmental Science
Registered for a Masters degree
Learned business skills from local role models
Working as a consultant in environmental management
Has contributed towards improving natural assets, esp.Rivers
Passionate about rebuilding and reclaiming Mthatha
Also runs an office in Durban, works remotely
Lives in her own flat close to the CBD
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What happens to the setting:Mthatha Othathayo 2030
Economic infrastructure has improved esp. the completion ofMthatha-Kokstad rail line
Public transport system is good
Airport Upgrades
Improved Agriculture food security
Rail networks links products to markets ICT Development
Use CCTV (Close Circuit Television)- to fight crime
Water is clean and recreation areas are good, clean air,contributing towards good quality of life
Better housing through mixed use high density development Mthatha has grown due to its strategic location between EastLondon, Kokstad, Queenstown and enhanced rail system
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Participants were then asked: To makethe good things in these stories cometrue, what needs to happen in KSD?
Product = 7 Directions for the Future
1. Fix Mthatha2. Boost Farming
3. Pull Social Development Together
4. Drive Technology- knowledge
5. Launch Tourism6. Connect up Rail and Road
7. Build Collective Leadership
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Participants asked again: How will the 7Directions play out in the 4 ProtoScenarios?
Product = 4 probable and collectivelyimagined scenarios
Mihla Ngemihla (Business As Usual)
Gxaba Gxabiso (Quick Results)
Intlakohlazo (Greener than Usual)
Inkqubela Phambili Sibambisene (SustainableDevelopment)
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BIG BOX OLD TECH GREEN TECH
ON
GRID
OFFGRID
SERVICE DELIVERY
INVESTMENTAND
TECHN
OLOGY
People-driven
Social capital focus
Recycling
Cultivates local
investment
Community Technology
Small farm collectives
Some pilot projectsOnly a few benefit
Rural community left
behind
Green town & villages
Relies on government
Gated developmentBig Malls
Mega-farms
Mass-resorts
Depends on outside
investors
Infrastructure BacklogsSubsistence Farms
Grudge Tourism
Little private investment
Relies on government
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Step Six: Scenario Implications
(October 2009)
The second multi stakeholder Choices We MakeToday workshop
reviewed and refined the four 2030 scenarios
gave names for the scenarios that could capturecommunity interest and involvement in futurecommunication of the process
identified key strategic choices that KSD needsto make.
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Step Seven: Reflection and Closure
(November 2009)
Final Steering Committee workshop:
distilled key learnings from the process
in regard to long term planning for KSD
Suggested replication of the process in
other communities in South Africa
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(3)
(4)
(2) (1)
(5)
(6)KSD 2030 KSDIDPMaster Plan
Three Stories of Life in
KSD in 2030
Seven 2030
Directions/ Issues
Impacting on KSDs
future
5 Past KSD Trends8 Key Driving Forces
4 KSD 2030 Scenarios
incl. Preferred
Scenario
KSD Strategic Choices
& Implementation
Recommendations
PROCESS SUMMARY
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LESSONS LEARNED
The process was successful and canbe replicated high level of interest and participation
brought the future home local leadership fully engaged
broad awareness of future threats and opportunities
the choices which need to be made soon
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LESSONS LEARNED
Work in progress:
Extending the conversation to the
broader community Managing the risk of perceived
powerlessness long term regional infrastructural issues
such as rail connectivity and off grid powergeneration
Fragmented delivery of social developmentservices
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LESSONS LEARNED
Cementing a capable long termpartnership
Translating the sustainable
development scenario into concrete 5/10/15 year programme ofaction
coupled with local IDP and other
donor and government programmesCore Donor(s) needed to assist!
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Thank you
Shahid Solomon
www.silimeelaafrica
083 377 2704
mailto:[email protected]://www.silimeelaafrica/http://www.silimeelaafrica/mailto:[email protected]