ShriramCity DEBT CRISIL RATING

8/12/2019 ShriramCity DEBT CRISIL RATING

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CRISIL IER IndependentEquityResearch

Enhancing investment decisions

Shriram City UnionFinance Ltd

Q2FY14 Results Update


2/14


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Shriram City Union Finance LtdAUM growth muted; gold loan segment drove disbursements

Fundamental Grade 4/5 (Superior fundamentals)

Valuation Grade 3/5 (CMP is aligned)

Industry Consumer Finance

1

November 6, 2013

Fair Value 1,059CMP 1,097

For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.inCRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI ) and Thomson Reuters.

Shriram City Union Finance Ltds (Shriram Citys) Q2FY14 results were in line with CRISIL

Researchs expectations. Disbursements grew 9% q-o-q helped by 82.8% q-o-q increase ingold loan disbursements as traders borrowed to increase supplies ahead of the festiveseason. The overall disbursement growth was arrested by political disruptions in AndhraPradesh which impacted non-gold business segments. Andhra Pradesh constitutes 45-48%of its total disbursements. Assets under management (AUM) declined by 1.8% q-o-q (down5% y-o-y) to 151 bn. Following lower-than-expected AUM growth in H1FY14, we lower ourFY14 AUM growth estimates to 14.6% from 21.1%. We expect H2FY14 AUM growth to bebetter than H1FY14 as we expect (i) the momentum in gold loans to continue in H2FY14 dueto higher gold prices and loan requirement from traders and (ii) non-gold business growth torevive, as the management believes that business in AP will stabilise soon. We maintain ourfundamental grade of 4/5.

Non-gold disbursements muted q-o-q while gold loan disbursements revivedTotal disbursements grew by 9.0% q-o-q to 35.6 bn with gold loan disbursements increasing

82.9% q-o-q to 11 bn. Disbursements excluding gold loans declined by 8% q-o-q to 24 bnowing to the political turmoil (Telangana issue) in Andhra Pradesh which hampered normalbusiness activities. SME (major AUM contributor) disbursements declined 9% to 13 bn.Spreads rose marginally by 31 bps q-o-q to 8.7% because yields grew 37 bps q-o-q to 20.6%owing to higher contribution from high-yielding SME loans (up by 300 bps q-o-q to 49%).

Asset quality deteriorated marginally following a weak macro environmentGross NPAs grew marginally by 17 bps to 2.46% in Q2FY14 following a weak macro-economic environment. Hence, overall gross NPAs (150 days past due) grew 7% q-o-q to3.8 bn. Credit costs declined by 9% q-o-q (down 20 bps to 2.4% of AUM), which led to PATincreasing 8% q-o-q to 1,272 mn. Net NPAs were flat at 0.7% of AUM. The companydeclared an interim dividend of 4 per share in Q2FY14.

Tier I capital improved on warrant conversion

In July 2013, the pending 3.05 warrants, out of 5.9 mn warrants issued in FY12, gotconverted into shares (one share per warrant) at an exercise price of 570. Hence, tier Icapital increased by 278 bps q-o-q to 18.3%, taking the total capital adequacy ratio to 23.3%.We had already factored in the warrant conversion in our model.

Earnings estimates largely maintained, fair value retained at 1,059Following lower-than-expected AUM growth in H1FY14, we lower our FY14 AUM growthestimates to 14.6% from 21.1%. On account of lower-than-expected provisions in H1FY14,we lower provision estimates by 7% in FY14. Accordingly, we largely retain our FY14 PATestimates. We continue to value Shriram City using the P/B method. Our fair value ismaintained at 1,059 (1.9x FY15 adjusted book value and valuing housing subsidiary at bookvalue). At the current market price of 1,097 per share, our valuation grade is 3/5.

KEY FORECAST

( mn) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15ETotal operating income 8,082 11,238 16,441 18,536 23,811Pre-provision profit 4,841 7,138 10,495 11,546 14,878

Adjusted net profit 2,406 3,425 4,496 4,995 6,425EPS 49 67 81 85 110P/E (x) 12.8 13.0 13.5 12.8 10.0P/ABV (x) 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.3 1.9RoE (%) 21.8 24.0 22.7 19.7 20.5RoA (%) 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.9 3.1Net NPA (%) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2Capital adequacy ratio (%) 20.8 17.0 18.6 21.3 19.6

NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current market price

Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimates

CFV MATRIX

KEY STOCK STATISTICSNIFTY/SENSEX 6221/20929

NSE/BSE tickerSHRIRAMCIT/

SHRMCITYFace Value ( per share) 10Shares outstanding (mn) 59.3Market cap ( mn)/(US$ mn) 59,537/96852-week range ( ) (H/L) 1,230/755Beta 0.2Free float (%) 62.4%

Avg daily volumes (30-days) 20,107

Avg daily value (30-days) ( mn) 20.6

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN

PERFORMANCE VIS--VIS MARKETReturns

1-m 3-m 6-m 12-mShriram City -9% 2% -6% 21%CNX 500 5% 4% 1% 4%

ANALYTICAL CONTACTMohit Modi (Director) [email protected] John [email protected] Vishal Rampuria [email protected]

Client servicing desk+91 22 3342 3561 [email protected]

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Valuation Grade

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d a m e n

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PoorFundamentals

ExcellentFundamentals

S t r o n g

D o w n s i

d e

S t r o n g

U p s

i d e

55.0% 57.3% 57.3%

37.6%

25.1% 25.2% 26.2%

25.9%

5.8% 4.3% 4.0%

3.0%

14.1% 13.1% 12.6%

33.5%

0%

10%

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40%

50%

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100%

Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13

Promoter FII DII Others


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2

Q2FY14 Results Summary (Standalone)

( mn) Q2FY14 Q1FY14 Q2FY13 q-o-q ( %) y-o-y ( %) H1FY14 H1FY13 y-o-y ( %)

Interes t Income 7,846 7,884 7,594 (0.5) 3.3 15,730 14,320 9.8 Interes t Expense 3,428 3,560 3,552 (3.7) (3.5) 6,987 6,569 6.4

Net Interest Income 4,419 4,324 4,042 2.2 9.3 8,743 7,751 12.8

Non Interest Income 140 174 1 (19.5) NM 314 13 NM

Total Operating Income 4,559 4,498 4,043 1.4 12.8 9,056 7,764 16.6

Operating Expenses 1,686 1,660 1,459 1.6 15.6 3,347 2,726 22.8

Staff Costs 631 649 476 (2.8) 32.6 1,280 824 55.3

Other Operating Expenses 1,055 1,012 983 4.3 7.4 2,067 1,901 8.7 Cost to income 38.6% 38.4% 37.6% 16 bps 96 bps 38.5% 36.5% 205 bps

Pre- provision profit (PPP) 2,873 2,837 2,584 1.2 11.2 5,710 5,038 13.3

Provisions and writ e offs 919 1,010 924 (9.0) (0.6) 1,929 1,805 6.8

Profit before depreciation and tax 1,954 1,827 1,660 6.9 17.7 3,781 3,233 17.0

Depreciation On Fixed Assets 73 68 63 7.4 16.5 141 105 34.5 PBT 1,881 1,760 1,597 6.9 17.7 3,640 3,128 16.4

Provision for tax 609 585 518 4.0 17.5 1,194 1,015 17.7

Adjusted Net Profit 1,272 1,174 1,079 8.3 17.9 2,446 2,113 15.7

No of equity shares (mn) 59.3 55.4 52.4 7.0 13.2 59 52.4 13.2

Adj EPS ( ) 21.8 21.2 20.6 2.9 5.8 43.0 40.4 6.5

Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Total operating income up 1.4% q-o-q and 13% y-o-y PAT increased 8% q-o-q and 18% y-o-y

Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research

2 , 6

0 2

2 , 7

2 8

3 , 4

4 7

3 , 7

2 1

4 , 0

4 3

4 , 2

5 0

4 , 7

1 2

4 , 4

9 8

4 , 5

5 9

58%

43%

59% 60%55% 56%

37%

21%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%50%

60%

70%

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500

4,0004,5005,000

Q 2 F Y 1 2

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Q 4 F Y 1 2

Q 1 F Y 1 3

Q 2 F Y 1 3

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Q 1 F Y 1 4

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( mn)

Total operating income y-o-y growth (RHS)

8 1 1

8 3 5

9 7 6

1 , 0

3 4

1 , 0

7 9

1 , 1

2 6

1 , 2

5 7

1 , 1

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7 2

46%42%

26% 29%

33% 35%29%

14%18%

-10%

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200

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8001,000

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( mn)

PAT y-o-y growth (RHS)


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4

Cost to income ratio remains flat q-o-q Gross NPAs rose by 17 bps sequentially


Tier I capital rose by 278 bps q-o-q on warrant conversion Trend in return ratios


Share price movement Fair value movement since initiation

-Indexed to 100

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, BSE, CRISIL Research

35.2%

38.3%

35.9%35.2%

37.6%39.6%

36.4%38.4%

38.6%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Q 2 F Y 1 2

Q 3 F Y 1 2

Q 4 F Y 1 2

Q 1 F Y 1 3

Q 2 F Y 1 3

Q 3 F Y 1 3

Q 4 F Y 1 3

Q 1 F Y 1 4

Q 2 F Y 1 4

1.72% 1.64% 1.55% 1.46% 1.37%1.57%

2.19% 2.29%2.46%

0.41% 0.37% 0.38% 0.34% 0.32%0.47%

0.80%0.67% 0.65%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

Q 2 F Y 1 2

Q 3 F Y 1 2

Q 4 F Y 1 2

Q 1 F Y 1 3

Q 2 F Y 1 3

Q 3 F Y 1 3

Q 4 F Y 1 3

Q 1 F Y 1 4

Q 2 F Y 1 4

Gross NPA Net NPA

13.7% 13.5% 12.6% 12.2% 12.5%14.9% 15.6%

18.3%

2.8% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 3.7%3.7%

4.3%

4.9%16.4% 16.9% 15.9% 15.5% 16.2%

18.6%19.9%

23.3%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

24%

28%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

24%

28%

Q 3 F Y 1 2

Q 4 F Y 1 2

Q 1 F Y 1 3

Q 2 F Y 1 3

Q 3 F Y 1 3

Q 4 F Y 1 3

Q 1 F Y 1 4

Q 2 F Y 1 4

Tier I ratio Tier II ratio Capital adequacy ratio (RHS)

3.4% 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 2.9% 2.8% 3.1% 3.0% 3.3%

24.4%23.9%

24.6%23.1% 23.0% 22.7% 23.4%

20.4% 20.2%

0%

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10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Q 2 F Y 1 2

Q 3 F Y 1 2

Q 4 F Y 1 2

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ROA ROE

0

50

100

150

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J a n - 0

8

M a y - 0

8

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J a n - 0

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Shriram City CNX 500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

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1,000

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1,400

J u l - 1 1

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1

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1

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2

M a r - 1 2

M a y - 1

2

J u n - 1

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F e b - 1

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3

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('000)( )

Total Traded Quantity (RHS) CRISIL Fair Value

Shriram City


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Shriram City Union Finance Ltd

5

Segment-wise NPAs

Product segment

Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13

GrossNPA %

NetNPA %

GrossNPA %

NetNPA %

GrossNPA %

NetNPA %

GrossNPA %

NetNPA %

GrossNPA %

NetNPA %

GrossNPA %

NetNPA %

Consumer durables 3.1% 0.6% 3.7% 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 3.6% 0.0%Two wheelers 3.2% 1.3% 3.5% 1.2% 3.6% 1.2% 3.7% 1.2% 3.8% 1.2% 3.8% 0.8%

Auto loans 3.2% 0.7% 3.8% 0.7% 3.6% 0.6% 3.5% 0.6% 3.3% 0.5% 3.7% 0.4%Personal loans 4.1% 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 4.4% 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 4.8% 0.0%Small enterprises finance 0.6% 0.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.9% 0.3% 1.5% 0.5% 1.4% 0.3%Total excluding gold loans 2.6% 0.6% 2.6% 0.6% 2.5% 0.6% 2.4% 0.6% 2.7% 0.6% 2.6% 0.4%Gold loans 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 1.3% 1.1% 1.6% 1.4%Total - including gold loans 1.5% 0.4% 1.5% 0.3% 1.4% 0.3% 1.6% 0.5% 2.2% 0.8% 2.3% 0.7%

Source: Company

Key takeaways from Q2FY14 conference callAUM outlook Excluding gold loans, AUM growth is expected to be 20% in FY14.

Overall AUM growth including gold loans can be around 20%.

Asset quality The entire book remains under 150 days past due (dpd) NPA recognition norms.

Write-off during Q2FY14 was 761 mn compared to 825 mn in Q1FY14

Borrowings Almost 49% of the liability is at a fixed rate of interest. The weighted average t enure of

liability is over 26 months.

In Q2FY14, the company securitised 6 bn at a weighted average rate of 8.38%.


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Shriram City Union Finance Ltd

7

Valuation Grade: 3/5Our fair value is 1,059 (1.8x FY15E adjusted book value and valuing the housing subsidiary

at book value). At the current market price of 1,097 per share, our valuation grade is 3/5.

One-year forward P/B band P/B movement

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

CRISIL IER reports released on Shriram City Union Finance Ltd

Date Nature of reportFundamental

grade Fair valueValuation

gradeCMP

(on the date of report)28-Jun-11 Initiating coverage 3/5 673 4/5 541

12-Aug-11 Q1FY12 result update 3/5 673 5/5 57015-Nov-11 Q2FY12 result update 3/5 673 5/5 52006-Mar-12 Q3FY12 result update 3/5 733 4/5 58810-July-12 Detailed report 3/5 746 4/5 64001-Aug-12 Q1FY13 result update 3/5 746 3/5 70807-Nov-12 Q2FY13 result update 3/5 803 3/5 81901-Mar-13 Q3FY13 result update 3/5 1,116 3/5 1,07922-Apr-13 Detailed report 4/5 1,116 4/5 1,00806-June-13 Q4FY13 result update 4/5 1,116 3/5 1,09013-Aug-13 Q1FY14 result update 4/5 1,059 4/5 88106-Nov-13 Q2FY14 result update 4/5 1,059 3/5 1,097

0200

400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800

J u l - 0 7

N o v - 0

7

M a r - 0 8

A u g - 0

8

D e c - 0

8

M a y - 0

9

S e p - 0

9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

N o v - 1

0

M a r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

D e c - 1

1

A p r - 1 2

S e p - 1

2

J a n - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

( )

Shriram City 1.5x 2.0x 2.5x 3.0x

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

J u l - 0 7

N o v - 0

7

M a r - 0 8

A u g - 0

8

D e c - 0

8

M a y - 0

9

S e p - 0

9

F e b - 1

0

J u n - 1

0

O c t - 1 0

M a r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

D e c - 1

1

A p r - 1 2

S e p - 1

2

J a n - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

O c t - 1 3

(Times)

1yr Fwd PB (x) Median PB

+1 std dev

-1 std dev


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8

Annexure: Financials (Standalone)

Source: CRISIL Research

Income Statement Ratios

( mn) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E ( mn) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15ENet Interest Income 8,054 11,108 16,326 18,318 23,561 Spread AnalysisNon Interest Income 28 129 114 217 250 Yield on AUM 21.1% 19.0% 20.8% 20.6% 20.6%Total Operating Income 8,082 11,238 16,441 18,536 23,811 Cost of borrowings 8.5% 10.8% 12. 5% 12.4% 12. 4%Operating Expenses 3,241 4,100 5,946 6,989 8,933 Net Int eres t Margin (NIM) 12. 2% 10.4% 11. 2% 10.8% 11. 1%Staff Costs 437 924 2,240 1,869 2,755 Return RatiosOther Operating Expenses 2,804 3,176 3,706 5,121 6,178 ROA (%) 3.0% 3.0% 3.1% 2.9% 3.1%Pre- provision profit (PPP) 4,841 7,138 10,495 11,546 14,878 ROE (%) 21.8% 24.0% 22.7% 19.7% 20.5%Provision & Contingency 1,160 1,760 3,594 3,885 4,969 Growth ratiosProfit before depreciation and tax 3,681 5,379 6,901 7,662 9,909 Assets under Management (AUM) 53.4% 67.9% 17.8% 14.6% 33.6% Depreciation On Fixed Assets 75 137 244 266 319 Disbursements 58.9% 75.4% 25.3% 14.1% 25.7%PBT 3,606 5,242 6,657 7,396 9,590 Net Interest Income 31.3% 37.9% 47.0% 12.2% 28.6%Provision for tax 1,200 1,717 2,160 2,400 3,165 Non Interest Income -80.6% 366.7% -11.6% 90.0% 15.0%Adjusted Net Profit 2,406 3,425 4,496 4,995 6,425 Total Operating Income 28.7% 39.1% 46.3% 12.7% 28.5%

Operating Expenses 39.5% 26.5% 45.0% 17.6% 27.8%Staff Costs 20.9% 111.5% 142.5% -16.6% 47.4%Pre- provision profit (PPP) 22.4% 47.5% 47.0% 10.0% 28.9%Provision & Contingency -0.5% 51.7% 104.3% 8.1% 27.9%

Balancesheet Adjusted Net Profit 31.8% 46.5% 27.5% 11.1% 28.6%( mn) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E EPS 30.7% 38.6% 20.5% 5.2% 28.6%Share Capital Book Value 20.4% 34.7% 22.7% 19.6% 21.3%Equity share capital 495 524 554 585 585 Asset QualityEquity Share warrants - 844 436 - - Gross NPA (%) 1.9% 1.6% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0%Reserves 11,605 15,859 21,382 27,675 33,689 Net NPA (%) 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%Shareholders Funds 12,100 17,226 22,372 28,260 34,274 Valuation Data

P/e (x) 12.8 13.0 13.5 12.8 10.0Borrowings 73,698 97,633 128,553 141,479 185,258 P/ABV (x) 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.3 1.9Other Liabilities & Provisions 11,135 16,926 10,456 10,978 11,527 Key ParametersDeferred tax liability - 43 46 46 46 Total AUM ( bn) 80 134 158 181 242 Sources of funds 96,933 131,829 161,428 180,763 231,106 Disbursements ( bn) 79 139 174 199 250

Capitalisation ratiosCash & Bank Balances 21,654 13,277 22,705 24,322 28,300 Capital adequacy ratio (%) 20.8 17.0 18.6 21.3 19.6Investments 53 176 1,174 1,760 2,128 Tier I capital ratio (%) 16.2 13.5 14.6 16.7 15.4Net Loans and advances 70,437 111,582 135,850 146,610 190,988 Tier II capital ratio (%) 4.6 3.5 4.0 4.7 4.2Net Fixed As sets and Capit al WIP 274 512 872 993 1,219 Efficiency ratioDeferred tax asset 158 175 235 235 235 Cost to Income ratio (%) 41.0 37.7 37.6 39.1 38.9Other Assets 4,357 6,106 592 6,844 8,237 Opex/ average assets (%) 4.1 3.7 4.2 4.2 4.5Application of funds 96,933 131,829 161,428 180,763 231,106 Leverage (x) 6.1 5.7 5.7 5.0 5.4

Quarterly FinancialsPer share ( mn) Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E Total operating income 4,043 4,250 4,712 4,498 4,559 Adj EPS ( ) 49 67 81 85 110 Change (q-o-q) 9% 5% 11% -5% 1%

Adj Book Value ( ) 238 321 384 475 580 PAT 1,079 1,126 1,257 1,174 1,272 Dividend per share ( ) 3.5 4.0 6.0 6 6 Change (q-o-q) 4% 4% 12% -7% 8%

Actual o/s shares 50 52 55 59 59 EPS 20.6 21.4 23.2 21.2 21.5


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CRISIL Research Team

President

Mukesh Agarwal CRISIL Research +91 22 3342 3035 [email protected]

Analytical Contacts

Sandeep Sabharwal Senior Director, Capital Markets +91 22 4097 8052 [email protected]

Prasad Koparkar Senior Director, Industry & Customised Research +91 22 3342 3137 [email protected]

Binaifer Jehani Director, Customised Research +91 22 3342 4091 [email protected]

Manoj Mohta Director, Customised Research +91 22 3342 3554 [email protected]

Sudhir Nair Director, Customised Research +91 22 3342 3526 [email protected]

Mohit Modi Director, Equity Research +91 22 4254 2860 [email protected]

Jiju Vidyadharan Director, Funds & Fixed Income Research +91 22 3342 8091 [email protected]

Ajay D'Souza Director, Industry Research +91 22 3342 3567 [email protected]

Ajay Srinivasan Director, Industry Research +91 22 3342 3530 [email protected]

Rahul Prithiani Director, Industry Research +91 22 3342 3574 [email protected]

Business Development

Hani Jalan Director, Capital Markets +91 22 3342 3077 [email protected]

Prosenjit Ghosh Director, Industry & Customised Research +91 22 3342 8008 [email protected]

Business Development Equity Research

Arjun Gopalkrishnan Regional Manager (All India)Email : [email protected] : +91 9833364422

Vishal Shah Regional ManagerEmail : [email protected] : +91 9820598908

Shweta Adukia Regional Manager

Email : [email protected] : +91 9987855771

Priyanka Murarka Regional ManagerEmail : [email protected] : +91 9903060685

Ankur Nehra Regional ManagerEmail : [email protected] : +91 9999575639


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ShriramCity DEBT CRISIL RATING

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