1

Short Course on

Meteorological Applications of

Aircraft Weather Data

Future Plans – Opportunities for the Private Sector

January 14, 2007

Kevin Johnston and David HelmsNOAA/NWS

2

• IUOS and U.S. AMDAR

• IUOS Phase I

• Future Plans

3

What is IUOS?What is IUOS?Mission and Requirements SpaceMission and Requirements Space

IUOS Mission: Cost-effectively meet existing NOAA upper-air observation requirements; and future validated requirements for:

• Improved spatial, temporal, and spectral resolution

• New observations of environmental parameters

• Data Management and Communications (DMAC)

Upper-air observation requirements space:

• Geographical Extent: Global

• Vertical Extent: 10 m above surface to Sun

• Temporal Range: Warnings to Global Climate Change Prediction

• Parameters: Winds, temperature, pressure, moisture, air chemistry, reflectivity, aerosols, biology, ….

4

What is IUOS?What is IUOS?CharacteristicsCharacteristics

IUOS solution characteristics – Future IUOS will be:• Adaptable, extensible, stable, continuous, and quality assured

• Cost-effective – avoid unnecessary duplication

• Serving multi-purposes - including driving Earth-system models

• Consistent with/component of USGEO and GEOSS

Final Operating Capability: • “Optimal” mix of NOAA

and non-NOAA observation platforms including both in situ and remote sensors based on NOSA Architecture Principles

IUOS Platforms and Sensors

5

Collect and Validate requirements• Surveyed Users

• Scientific Literature

• “Heritage” Requirements (e.g. FMH-3)

• NOAA CORL (Program Input)

• Phenomenological Analysis

Establish Requirements Domain

• Threshold: Minimum performance operationally useful

• Objective: Maximum operationally useful performance

IUOS RequirementsIUOS RequirementsMethodologyMethodology

Water VaporTemporal Resolution: Threshold

0.250.250.250.250.250.251.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.00

3.003.003.003.003.003.003.003.003.003.003.003.003.003.003.003.00

6.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.00

12.0012.0012.0012.0012.0012.0024.00

R2 = 0.9975

0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0

100.0

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00

Refresh Rate (hrs)

Nee

ds

Sat

isfi

ed (

%)

Water VaporHorizontal Resolution: Threshold

2.533331010101010

25365050505050505050

80100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100

200200200200200200200200200200

250250250250300 500500 550 650 1000

R2 = 0.9397

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Horizontal Resolution (km)

Need

s S

atisfied

(%

)

70% of all requirements satisfied with atmospheric soundings collected every 2 hours

70% of all requirements satisfied with atmospheric soundings every 75 km

6

IUOS Missions SupportedIUOS Missions SupportedCurrent verses Objective Resolution RequirementsCurrent verses Objective Resolution Requirements

▼

▼

Reference: Schlatter, et al, 2005: A Phenomenological Approach to the Specification of Observational Requirements

▼

▼

Current

Objective Req.

7

IUOS End State Notion ViewIUOS End State Notion ViewAircraft Observations Key to Aircraft Observations Key to Reaching Resolution GoalsReaching Resolution Goals

Profilers and CAPsCAPs………... 185

RawinsondeRawinsonde…………102102

Current andCurrent and futurefutureAMDARAMDAR……………….100

Total Soundings…… 387Rawinsonde

8

IUOS RoadmapIUOS RoadmapPhased ApproachPhased Approach

Deploy

Phase 1 – Regional In Situ Soundings

Phase 2 – Integrated Regional Soundings

Requirements

Analysis

PPB

Phase 3 – Integrated Radar

Deploy

Req’s

Analysis

PPB

Deploy

Req’s

Analysis

PPB

IOC FOC

04 0605 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

IOC FOC

IOC FOC

9

IUOS Phase 1: IUOS Phase 1: Regional In Situ SoundingsRegional In Situ Soundings

Radiosonde/WV Aircraft ObsRadiosonde/WV Aircraft Obs

In FY06-07:

• Evaluate model response to water-vapor sensor derived data

• Evaluate implications of

– forecasters using different data source and,

– reaction of broader US weather enterprise.

• Use evaluation to develop plan for implementation

In FY08-09: Begin phase 1 implementation

10

Phase 1: Adaptive Sounding Strategy Phase 1: Adaptive Sounding Strategy Notional PlanNotional Plan

Use alternative sounding from commercial aircraft if WV instrumented aircraft has a scheduled ascent or descent at an airport which is within:

• XX miles of radiosonde site

• YY minutes of radiosonde valid time

CONOPS:• Lead Meteorologist at closest WFO coordinates sounding strategy

• Short (<3 hrs) and long term (6 month) public notices disseminated indicating product availability and associated WMO Heading and circuits

• Soundings from aircraft publicly available in near real-time

Alternative sounding strategy limited to:

• 1 of 2 sounding launches per radiosonde station (initially)

• CONUS Non-GUAN stations

Outcomes:

• Cost avoidance from radiosonde expendables

• Redundant observations eliminated

• Greater % of Data Requirements Achieved

11

Adaptive Sounding Strategy: Adaptive Sounding Strategy: Weather Enterprise InputWeather Enterprise Input

A few questions…

• How do you currently use radiosonde observations?

• What do you know about atmospheric observations from commercial

aircraft?

• What transition issues might you have with use of aircraft observations

as an alternative to radiosonde observations?

• How can NOAA best communication data quality issues associated with

aircraft observations?

• How does the proposed adaptive sounding strategy timeline impact

you?

• How can we recruit Weather Enterprise contacts to answer these and

other issues associated with the Adaptive Sounding Strategy???

12

Now:

• 25 WVSSII sensors on United Parcel Service B-757 aircraft since March 2005 (NOAA)

• 60 TAMDAR sensors on Mesaba Saab 340 Aircraft since December 2004 (NASA)

• 1,700 aircraft contributing to the U.S. AMDAR

Next 1-2 Months:

• Contract award of NOAA RFP for installation and operation of Water Vapor Data from Commercial Aircraft, negotiations on-going

Phase 1 Implementation:

• Data distribution issues need to be worked if data are to be freely distributed

• Radiosonde release schedule changes and AMDAR data availability will be coordinated with U.S. Weather Enterprise

End-State Plan:

• Calls for 1,600 aircraft collecting water vapor observations

• Optimization of vertical profilers from airlines critical to allow for expansion of AMDAR and implementation of NOAA’s IUOS.

Future Directions: Future Directions: Commercial Aircraft ObservationsCommercial Aircraft Observations

13

Questions???