Sholk Molecular Diagnostics Presentation Final.ppt For...

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For CJ

who offered DudLess his last banana, not knowing when or if another would appear

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37Iwl_DUvts

DudLess translates the Travers(Long V.E. Day @ 19-1)

DudLess

August 2014


DudLess scans the odds offered on a 1 win bet


Translates the odds into implied win probabilities

Horse # Horse name Implied win %

1 Commanding Curve 20.1 to 1.0 1.0 in 21.1 4.7%

2 Bayern 2.5 to 1.0 1.0 in 3.5 29.0%

3 Charge Now 32.8 to 1.0 1.0 in 33.8 3.0%

4 V.E. Day 19.5 to 1.0 1.0 in 20.5 4.9%

5 Viva Majorca 30.0 to 1.0 1.0 in 31.0 3.2%

6 Tonalist 2.7 to 1.0 1.0 in 3.7 27.4%

7 Wicked Strong 2.7 to 1.0 1.0 in 3.7 27.4%

8 Kid Cruz 12.3 to 1.0 1.0 in 13.3 7.5%

9 Ulanbator 86.3 to 1.0 1.0 in 87.3 1.1%

10 Mr Speaker 7.6 to 1.0 1.0 in 8.6 11.6%

Source: Equibase Check 119.9%

Takeout

16.6%

Horse # Horse name Implied win %

1 Commanding Curve 24.3 to 1.0 1.0 in 25.3 4.0%

2 Bayern 3.1 to 1.0 1.0 in 4.1 24.2%

3 Charge Now 39.5 to 1.0 1.0 in 40.5 2.5%

4 V.E. Day 23.6 to 1.0 1.0 in 24.6 4.1%

5 Viva Majorca 36.2 to 1.0 1.0 in 37.2 2.7%

6 Tonalist 3.4 to 1.0 1.0 in 4.4 22.9%

7 Wicked Strong 3.4 to 1.0 1.0 in 4.4 22.9%

8 Kid Cruz 14.9 to 1.0 1.0 in 15.9 6.3%

9 Ulanbator 103.6 to 1.0 1.0 in 104.6 1.0%

10 Mr Speaker 9.3 to 1.0 1.0 in 10.3 9.7%

Source: Equibase, DudLess' adjustments Check 100.0%

Actual odds on win bet Implied win probability

0% takeout odds on win bet Implied win probability


Considers them relative to historical performance


And decides where to cast CJ’s last banana

1. Commanding Curve

2. Bayern

3. Charge Now

4. V.E. Day

5. Viva Majorca

6. Tonalist

7. Wicked Strong

8. Kid Cruz

9. Ulanbator

10. Mr Speaker

Total bananas

bet on all horses -Bananas taken from

win pool to cover

purses & track expenses-

Total bananas bet

on winning horse ÷Total bananas bet

on winning horse =Banana profit on a

successful win bet

100 - 16 - x ÷ x = y


The race is run

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDpt69CuXIU


The truth comes true

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/86939/travers-upset-v-e-day-over-wicked-strong


DudLess eats


And CJ does too

Dear CJ,

When you’re offered win bet odds of 19-to-1 on a

horse that has won its last 3 races, is entered by a

trainer whose entrants win 31% of their races and is

guided by a jockey that wins 25% of his races…

…accept the offer!Love, DudLess

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbqNzFw6LTU


Though you won’t win them all, DudLess bets…

Probability of 1 of 2

Jerkens entrants

winningx

Payoff returned with 1 win bet

upon Jerkens horse win + Probability of 1 of 9

other horses winning xPayoff upon 1 of 9 other

horses winning =Break-even expected

value over many races

31%/2 x α + (100% - 31%/2) x -1 = 0

α = ~5.5

Back-of-envelope fair value for a Jerkens horse win bet = ~5.5 to 1 odds


…you’ll DudLess

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6CZTDCb7g4


DudLess

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