SHIPPING ACADEMIC CONFERENCES 2012

Shipping MarketsShipping MarketsA Time of OpportunityA Time of Opportunity

Nigel Bell Managing DirectorBell Shipping Ltd.,

UK

OECD Growth / Dry Trade Growth

2

Shipping Academic Conferences“Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” -

November 2012

Source: Clarkson Research Services

3


November 2012

Bulk Spot Earning ($/Day)

4


November 2012


5


November 2012


Capesize and Panamax values over the last 15 years

5 year old Capesize and Panamax Values 1 January 2003 to 20th November 2012:


November 2012

Newbuilding, Resale, 5 year old and 10 year old Prices:

Capesize Panamax

Year Newbuilding Resale 5 year old 10 year

old Newbuilding resale 5 year old 10 year old

2012 46 40 32.5 21 25.8 28 19 13.5

2011 48.5 48 36 26.5 29 34.5 26.5 20

2010 57 64 50 38 34.5 43 36 28

2009 56 73 55 44 33.8 41 36 27.5

2008 88 55 45 31 46.5 36 26 20

2007 97 155 150 105 55 101 88.5 72

2006 68 93 81 62 40 56.5 45.5 37

2005 59 57 38 36 29.5 24

2004 64 64.5 46 36 40 31

2003 48 44 32 27 28 20

2002 36.25 29 20.5 21.5 17 11.5

2001 36 27 16.5 20.5 14 9.5

2000 40.5 30.25 19 22.5 16 11.75

1999 35 29.25 17.5 22 16.75 12

1998 33 25.67 14.5 20 14 9.75

1997 40.5 34.42 18.5 27 22 15.75

8


November 2012

9


November 2012

10


November 2012

11


November 2012

12


November 2012

13


November 2012

14


November 2012

15


November 2012

16


November 2012

17


November 2012

18


November 2012

19


November 2012

20


November 2012

21


November 2012

Capesize Fleet Trends

22


November 2012


Panamax Fleet Trends

23


November 2012


Handy/Handymax Fleet Trends

24


November 2012


25


November 2012

Demolition

Dry Bulk Market SummaryOver-ordering will hold back recoveryPanamax will become out dated

Only 5% of panamaxes transit the Panama Canal2 markets for Panamax – Atlantic and PacificPost-panamax & minicape will replace Panamax

Panamax draft vs. Post-Panamax / Minicape draft 75,000 on 13.9mtrs vs. 106,000 on 13.5mtrs• Low Newbuilding costs: 2010 2012

Capesize $57.0m $46.5mPanamax $34.5m $26.5mHandymax $31.0m $24.5mHandysize $26.5m $21.5m

26


November 2012


November 2012



November 2012 28


November 2012 29


November 2012 30


November 2012


Shipping Academic Conferences“Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” –

November 2012 33


November 2012



November 2012 36


November 2012 37



November 2012


Tanker Market SummaryNo New Oil Refineries planned in USA or EuropeVirtually all New Oil Refineries are in Asia, India

and ChinaReduction in Crude Oil Demand in USA and

EuropePetroleum Product will move from Asia to USA

and Europe – Likely Size “LR2 / Coated Aframax”Reduction in Demand for VLCCQUESTION: Shale Oil / Shale Gas Development

in USA likely to make USA – Net Exporter of Energy ??


November 2012 40

Acknowledgement and Special Thanks to the following Organisations for contributing

information and statistical data:Clarkson Research ServicesBaltic ExchangeDrewry Shipping Consultants

www.bellshipping.com

41

Shipping Academic Conferences“Shipping Markets & Ship Operations” - November 2012

SHIPPING ACADEMIC CONFERENCES 2012

Documents

Transcript of SHIPPING ACADEMIC CONFERENCES 2012