The Iconic “AgeThe Iconic “Age‐‐Crime” Curve Meets Crime” Curve Meets

Mass Incarceration Mass Incarceration –– Describing and Describing and

Then Explaining Changes in the U.S. Then Explaining Changes in the U.S.

Prison Prison PopulationPopulationPrison Prison PopulationPopulation

Shawn D. BushwayShawn D. Bushway

Second Annual Institutional Second Annual Institutional Corrections Research Network Corrections Research Network

(ICRN)(ICRN)

The Value of Careful Counting The Value of Careful Counting

In the Criminal Justice SystemIn the Criminal Justice System�� Starting in 1980’s, movement toward Starting in 1980’s, movement toward longitudinal, panel datasets to describe longitudinal, panel datasets to describe “criminal careers”“criminal careers”

�� Rochester Youth Development StudyRochester Youth Development Study�� Rochester Youth Development StudyRochester Youth Development Study

�� Pittsburgh Youth StudyPittsburgh Youth Study

�� Denver Youth StudyDenver Youth Study

�� National Longitudinal Survey of Youth,1997National Longitudinal Survey of Youth,1997

�� SelfSelf--reportreport

�� LongitudinalLongitudinal

But, not panaceaBut, not panacea

�� ExpensiveExpensive

�� SlowSlow

�� Attrition, missing data problemsAttrition, missing data problems

�� Not good at describing changes in systemsNot good at describing changes in systems

Are Stories Comparable?Are Stories Comparable?

�� Cumulative Prevalence of Arrest using Cumulative Prevalence of Arrest using NLSY97NLSY97

�� BrameBrame, Robert; Michael Turner, Raymond , Robert; Michael Turner, Raymond Paternoster and Shawn Paternoster and Shawn BushwayBushway. (2012). . (2012). “Cumulative Prevalence of Arrest from Ages 8“Cumulative Prevalence of Arrest from Ages 8--23 23 “Cumulative Prevalence of Arrest from Ages 8“Cumulative Prevalence of Arrest from Ages 8--23 23 in a National Sample.” in a National Sample.” PediatricsPediatrics 129:1:21129:1:21--27.27.

�� 30% of youth arrested at least once by 30% of youth arrested at least once by age 23age 23

Can you get same description Can you get same description

with counting data?with counting data?�� UCR data and Census dataUCR data and Census data

�� Assumptions about “virgin” arrest rateAssumptions about “virgin” arrest rate

�� Percent of arrests by first timersPercent of arrests by first timers

�� 22% of youth arrested by age 23 in 196522% of youth arrested by age 23 in 1965�� 22% of youth arrested by age 23 in 196522% of youth arrested by age 23 in 1965

�� Christensen 1967Christensen 1967

�� 30% of youth arrested by age 23 in 200030% of youth arrested by age 23 in 2000

�� Cutler, Cutler, BrameBrame and and BushwayBushway update of update of Christensen Christensen

�� Same number as NLSY97Same number as NLSY97

What About Incarceration?What About Incarceration?

�� Harder with NLSY97 Harder with NLSY97 –– rare eventsrare events

�� Life tables approach for imprisonmentLife tables approach for imprisonment�� Pettit and Western 2004. Mass Imprisonment and Pettit and Western 2004. Mass Imprisonment and �� Pettit and Western 2004. Mass Imprisonment and Pettit and Western 2004. Mass Imprisonment and the Life Course: Race and Class Inequality in U.S. the Life Course: Race and Class Inequality in U.S. Incarceration. American Sociological Review Incarceration. American Sociological Review 69:15169:151--169169

�� Need to account for dynamic environmentNeed to account for dynamic environment

What About Conviction?What About Conviction?

�� Collateral consequencesCollateral consequences

�� Even harder Even harder –– NJRP only conviction NJRP only conviction dataset.dataset.dataset.dataset.

�� Enhanced NCRP vital for these efforts!Enhanced NCRP vital for these efforts!

The Changing The Changing

Demography of the Demography of the

Incarcerated Population Incarcerated Population

in the U.S.in the U.S.

Starting PointStarting Point

�� 44--fold Increase in Prison Populationfold Increase in Prison Population

�� Aging of prison populationAging of prison population�� Median age Median age Median age Median age

�� 27.5 in 1974 27.5 in 1974

�� 34.9 in 200434.9 in 2004

�� Why?Why?

What Does Research Say?What Does Research Say?

�� Prison population increasedPrison population increased

�� 50% increase incarceration risk50% increase incarceration risk

�� 50% sentence length50% sentence length

�� But see work of John Pfaff using NCRPBut see work of John Pfaff using NCRP�� But see work of John Pfaff using NCRPBut see work of John Pfaff using NCRP

�� BJS report older age of release (Beck)BJS report older age of release (Beck)

�� Life tables of lifetime risk of incarcerationLife tables of lifetime risk of incarceration

�� (Pettit and Western 2004)(Pettit and Western 2004)

What Data Do We Want?What Data Do We Want?

�� Annual data on everyone under Annual data on everyone under supervision of the criminal justice system supervision of the criminal justice system in the U.S. in the U.S.

�� Interesting subset Interesting subset �� Interesting subset Interesting subset

�� population of everyone sentenced to incarceration population of everyone sentenced to incarceration in the U.S. in the U.S.

What Date Do We Have? What Date Do We Have?

�� Survey of Inmates in State and Federal Survey of Inmates in State and Federal Correctional Facilities Correctional Facilities for 1974, 1979, for 1974, 1979, 1986, 1991, 1997, and 2004 1986, 1991, 1997, and 2004

�� BJS/US Census data BJS/US Census data �� BJS/US Census data BJS/US Census data

�� representative sample of State inmatesrepresentative sample of State inmates

�� Interviews ~ 15,000 State inmates Interviews ~ 15,000 State inmates

�� Similar effort by Derek Neal with NCRPSimilar effort by Derek Neal with NCRP

Samples, Not PopulationsSamples, Not Populations

�� What kind of sample properties?What kind of sample properties?

�� Do sample properties vary with age/year?Do sample properties vary with age/year?

�� Can we look at cohort by year?Can we look at cohort by year?

�� Should we smooth?Should we smooth?

Year

Distributional Characteristics Counts

Mean Median Mode SD Skew

% 40 and

older

1974 29.7 27 23 9.95 1.32 16%

1979 29.1 27 23 8.98 1.42 12%1979 29.1 27 23 8.98 1.42 12%

1986 30.6 29 24 8.88 1.25 14%

1991 31.9 30 27 9.33 1.10 18%

1997 33.7 33 33 9.72 0.70 25%

2004 35.2 34 25 10.43 0.55 33%

Year

Distributional Characteristics Rates

Mean Median Mode SD Skew

1974 31.9 29 23 10.82 0.94

1979 31.2 29 23 10.08 1.13

1986 32.2 30 23 10.22 0.94

1991 33.2 31 25 10.74 0.74

1997 33.8 32 23 10.65 0.43

2004 35.2 34 26 10.91 0.17

What is not happening?What is not happening?

�� Not “AgeNot “Age--crime” curvecrime” curve

�� Age only explains 15% of the overall variation Age only explains 15% of the overall variation in chartin chart

�� For arrests, typically age explains 85%For arrests, typically age explains 85%�� For arrests, typically age explains 85%For arrests, typically age explains 85%

�� Not increasing crime/arrestsNot increasing crime/arrests

So, what is happening?So, what is happening?

�� Is it a cohort effect? Is it a cohort effect?

People born in later years more involved in People born in later years more involved in

Prisonersij i j ijkxµ α π ε= + + + +

�� People born in later years more involved in People born in later years more involved in the criminal justice systemthe criminal justice system

�� Is it a period effect?Is it a period effect?

�� Higher incarceration rates in later yearsHigher incarceration rates in later years

�� Some interaction?Some interaction?

Mostly Cohort EffectMostly Cohort Effect

�� Don’t need to interact with periodDon’t need to interact with period

�� Not increasing arrest by cohortsNot increasing arrest by cohorts

So what is it?So what is it?�� So what is it?So what is it?

�� Time served/sentence lengthsTime served/sentence lengths

�� Drug sentences (or other sentence types)Drug sentences (or other sentence types)

�� Parole revocationParole revocation

�� Changing demographics/socioeconomicChanging demographics/socioeconomic

�� Drug UseDrug Use

Preliminary ConclusionPreliminary Conclusion

Mostly Drug UseMostly Drug Use

1974 1979 1986 1991 1997 2004

Demographics

Black .45 .39 .38 .47 .50 .42

Male .97 .78 .83 .77 .77 .74

Drug Sentence .07 .14 .17 .2 .24 .20

SocioeconomicsSocioeconomics

Employed .73 .72 .74 .67 .68 .75

Married .27 .24 .32 .25 .22 .21

Drug Use

Any .40 .59 .62 .73 .84 .74

Cocaine .18 .26 .35 .45 .60 .56

Recent

Cocaine

.10 .15 .21 .34 .30

Under Inf.

During off.

.17 .24 .27 .29 .35 .36

Received

Treatment

.04 .28 .22 .28 .62 .68

ConclusionConclusion

�� Simple Age Period Cohort modelSimple Age Period Cohort model

�� Can capture changeCan capture change

�� More recent cohorts are experiencing more More recent cohorts are experiencing more incarceration right from beginningincarceration right from beginningincarceration right from beginningincarceration right from beginning

�� Not (just) sentence lengthNot (just) sentence length

�� Older cohorts are “lingering”Older cohorts are “lingering”

�� Drug useDrug use

�� Need to expand to jails/flowsNeed to expand to jails/flows

MetaMeta--conclusionconclusion

�� Description is important, often forgotten Description is important, often forgotten tasktask

Records of correctional populations are Records of correctional populations are �� Records of correctional populations are Records of correctional populations are important.important.

�� Describe patterns of changeDescribe patterns of change

�� Demographic tools are usefulDemographic tools are useful