SHANGHAIBUSINESS PARK MARKET SNAPSHOT Q3 2019上海商务园区市场概览 2019年 第三季度

RESEARCH 研究报告

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RESEARCHSHANGHAI BUSINESS PARK MARKET SNAPSHOT Q3 2019

RENTS

On 26 July, the Shanghai Municipal Government published “the opinions of Shanghai’s promotion of the development of multinational corporation (MNC)’s regional headquarters by Shanghai Municipal People’s Government”, which was implemented on 1 September. According to the opinions, more asset-light technology enterprises will benefit from the relaxation of the standards for the classification of regional headquarters by receiving fiscal subsidy and enjoying tax reduction. Such funding can be used to invest in R&D and expansion, thus indirectly contribute to the growing leasing demand of R&D buildings, R&D centres and data centres in Shanghai business parks.

On 6 August, the State Council approved the establishment of Lingang area of the Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone (FTZ), aiming to form a cluster featuring frontier technology R&D as well as cross-border trade in services. Amongst, the leading industries including intelligent network and new energy vehicles (NEV) have been gathered in Lingang. In Q3, more than 20 key projects about intelligent

network and NEV covering four categories such as manufacturing, application, services and functional platform signed contracts in the Lingang area for a total investment of RMB8 billion. With an increasing number of intelligent manufacturing companies settled in Lingang, the leasing demand for high-quality R&D buildings in the Lingang area and even the overall Shanghai business park market will grow steadily.

On 13 September, the Shanghai municipal government issued “An action plan for creating a first-class innovation ecology to build itself into an artificial intelligence (AI) highland between 2019 and 2021”, which pointed out to establish a cluster of key industries including intelligent chips, intelligent network and NEV, intelligent robots and intelligent hardware, mainly concentrated in Pudong Zhangjiang, Lingang area, Xuhui Binjiang, Minhang Maqiao and other key industrial innovation clusters. As the frontier technology for future development, AI and its supporting sectors will be developed with great potential,

accelerating the development of business park market in the above key clusters.

On 26 September, the Shanghai municipal government published “The three-year action plan for the development and application innovation of 5G industry between 2019 and 2021”, planning to reach an industrial scale of RMB100 billion in sectors including 5G manufacturing, software and information services as well as application industry, to achieve large-scale production of 5G chip-related equipment and devices, and to attract over 300 5G industrial chain companies by 2021. 5G industry will be gathered in Jinqiao, Zhangjiang, Caohejing, Huawei Park and G60 High-Tech Corridor. It can be foreseen that 5G technology, as the technical foundation of various advanced technology application scenarios, will achieve rapid development in the next three years. The development of 5G technology will drive the development of its upstream and downstream industries, which is of positive significance for boosting the demand for high-quality R&D centres, data centres and R&D office buildings in the market.

POLICIES5G TECHNOLOGY DRIVES DEMAND IN BUSINESS PARK MARKETIn the third quarter (Q3), the average rent in the Shanghai business park market dropped to RMB4.23 per sqm per day while the overall vacancy rate increased slightly to 16.7%, up 0.2 percentage point from the previous quarter.

In Q3, the only new project in the Shanghai business park market was completed in Pudong Waigaoqiao, bringing 71,100 sqm of new space to the market. In the meantime, this new completion pushed up the vacancy rate in the area to 51.8%.

The economic slowdown and the unsolved China-US trade tensions forced many companies to suspend their relocation or expansion plans, softening the leasing market.

However, the rapid development of 5G technology will accelerate the related

industries, thus boosting the leasing demand for high-quality R&D (research and development) space in business parks.

Looking forward to the fourth quarter (Q4) in 2019, it is expected that there will be over 300,000 sqm of office space scheduled for completion in business parks. We believe that the huge amount of new supply and the weakening demand will impose pressure on the market rents, leading to a downward trend in rents in the coming quarters.

TABLE 1Shanghai business park market indicators

Indicator Q3 2019 figure QoQ change Outlook (Q4 2019)

New supply 71,100 sqm N/A ↗Rent RMB4.23 / sqm / day ↓0.5% ↘Vacancy rate 16.7% ↑0.2 percentage point ↗

Source: Knight Frank Research

TABLE 2Major indicators of submarkets, Q3 2019

Submarket Rent (RMB / sqm / day)

Rent % change (QoQ)

Vacancy rate

Vacancy rate percentage point change (QoQ)

Zhangjiang 4.70 ↓0.6% 17.8% ↑0.3

Caohejing 4.82 ↔ 10.9% ↓2.3

Caohejing Pujiang 2.66 ↓0.7% 21.7% ↑1.9

North Jing’an 4.21 ↓0.5% 13.9% ↓1.9

Jinqiao 3.62 ↑0.8% 24.1% ↓1.6

Linkong 4.24 ↓1.4% 12.7% ↑1.2

Lujiazui Software Park 6.70 ↔ 19.0% ↑1.0

Waigaoqiao 3.29 ↔ 51.8% ↑37.1

Source: Knight Frank Research

FIGURE 1Shanghai business park rent

Source: Knight Frank Research

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RMB/sqm/day Rent (le�) Q-o-Q Growth rate (right)

The relocation of enterprises, the decreased leasing activity in business parks and the slowing absorption of new projects have led to an increase in vacant space, thus landlords in business parks lowered rents and offered incentives such as fit-out contributions and rent-free periods to achieve higher occupancy rates. In Q3, the average rent of the Shanghai business park market decreased slightly by 0.5% QoQ to RMB4.23 per sqm per day.

In Q3, rents in most business parks dropped. Linkong as well as Caohejing Pujiang in Puxi and Zhangjiang in Pudong showed the larger decline in rents among all submarkets. The average rents of Linkong and Caohejing Pujiang in Puxi dropped by 1.4% and 0.7% QoQ respectively to RMB4.24 and 2.66 per sqm per day, whilst that in Zhangjiang decreased by 0.6% QoQ to RMB4.7 per sqm per day.

Business parks in Jinqiao performed well in Q3 with the average rent reaching RMB3.62 per sqm per day, an increase of 0.8% QoQ. The increased leasing demand of 5G related companies boosted the leasing activities and encouraged landlords to raise rents, thus driving the average rent in Jinqiao to rise.

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研究报告上海商务园区市场概览 2019年 第三季度

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In Q3, Mei Centre, as the only new project in Shanghai business park market, was completed in Pudong Waigaoqiao, bringing approximately 71,100 sqm of new business park space to the market and driving up the total stock to nearly 10 million sqm. With a total gross floor area of approximately 290,000 sqm, Mei Centre is a commercial complex jointly developed by China Merchants Shekou Holdings and Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Group. The office portion of Mei Centre comprises two Grade-A office buildings and one of them is now available for lease.

In Q3, the net absorption of Shanghai business park dropped to 46,000 sqm while that in the previous three quarters totalled approximately 375,000 sqm, with a significant decline compared with the same period of the last two years. The decline of net absorption was mainly due to the decline of leasing activities and the slowing absorption of newly launched projects. Caohejing in Puxi and Zhangjiang and Jinqiao in Pudong attributed mostly to a positive net absorption in Q3.

In Q3, the vacancy rate of Shanghai business parks increased by 0.2 percentage point QoQ to 16.7%. The demand for R&D buildings and data centres in business parks now still comes from NEV and auto parts, AI as well as traditional manufacturing

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

In Q3, the Shanghai business park market recorded two en-bloc transactions, of which one was in Pudong Zhangjiang while another one was in Caohejing Pujiang.

In September, China’s comprehensive financial service institution, Zhongrong International acquired an office building in

Pujiang Hi-Tech Centre with a total gross floor area of approximately 24,151 sqm from Shanghai Lingang. Pujiang Hi-Tech Centre is an ecological office R&D park in Caohejing Pujiang of Minhang.

In September, The9 Limited sold Zhangjiang Micro-Electronic Port Block Three in

Pudong Zhangjiang to Keppel Land China Limited through an equity transaction for RMB493 million, subject to post-completion adjustments. The four-storey development has a total gross floor area of approximately 14,518 sqm while the transaction is expected to be completed in Q4 2019.

INVESTMENT MARKET

On 5 November, the second China International Import Expo (CIIE) was held in National Exhibition and Convention Centre in Hongqiao CBD. The Expo demonstrated the latest technology, services and products to the public. More and more frontier technology sectors including biomedicine, high-end manufacturing and AI were introduced to the domestic market through the exhibition of Expo.

For the business park market, the emergence of these companies has boosted the leasing demand for large-scale R&D and data centres. In addition, Shanghai will be

devoted to the establishment of a science and innovation centre and the number of intelligent manufacturing companies will continue to rise, thus the demand for built-to-suit R&D buildings designated for hi-tech company use will be boosted significantly. For those investors with interests in the business park market, the demand for high-quality R&D buildings featuring built-to-suit services and labs at higher standards will continue to increase. Therefore, there will be investment opportunities for such R&D buildings.

As the first city established 5G coverage in China, Shanghai has stepped into the

era of 5G commercial network. Application scenario in the initial stage including smart office, intelligent security, telemedicine and multiplayer entertainment under virtual reality technology will be widely used amid the maturity of 5G technology. With the rapid development of 5G business, the R&D capabilities of related companies are also growing, boosting the leasing demand for office space in business parks. In Q3, Huawei and China Telecom leased office space in Jinmin Park and Office Park to expand their 5G business.

MARKET FOCUS

第三季度，上海商务园区市场仅有一个项目在浦东外高桥竣工交付，为市场带来71,100平方米的新增面积。同时，新项目的入市将外高桥市场空置率推高至51.8%。

经济增速的放缓以及中美贸易摩擦仍未解决，使得不少企业搁置搬迁及扩租的计划，市场租赁活动有所减缓。

然而，5G技术的提速发展预计将带动其相关产业的发展，对于园区高质量研发楼的需求将会增加。

展望2019年第四季度，上海商务园区市场预计还会有超过30万平方米的面积竣工交付。我们认为大量新增供应以及羸弱的市场需求将给园区市场带来压力，市场租金预计将继续下跌。

FIGURE 2Shanghai business park supply, net absorption and vacancy rate

5G技术催生商务园区市场新需求2019年第三季度，上海商务园区市场平均租金跌至每天每平方米人民币4.23元，平均空置率环比微增0.2个百分点至16.7%。

表一上海商务园区市场参考指标

指标 2019年第三季度数字 按季变幅 预测 （2019年第四季)

新增供应 71,100平方米 N/A ↗租金 人民币4.23元/平方米/天 ↓0.5% ↘空置率 16.7% ↑0.2个百分点 ↗

资料来源：莱坊研究部

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'000 sqm New supply (le�) Net absorption (le�) Vacancy rate (right)

Source: Knight Frank Research

sectors. However, the development of 5G technology is expected to boost the leasing demand for business parks from 5G R&D companies and related hardware equipment manufacturers. In Q3, the vacancy rates in Caohejing in Puxi and Jinqiao in Pudong

decreased by 2.3 and 1.5 percentage points QoQ to 10.9% and 24.1% respectively. The declines in vacancy rates were highly associated with the strong leasing demand of 5G related companies in these areas.

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研究报告上海商务园区市场概览 2019年 第三季度

近期政策 供应与需求图二上海商务园区供应量、净吸纳量及空置率

表二商务园区各主要细分市场参考指标，2019年第三季度

区域 租金（人民币/平方米/天）

租金环比变幅 空置率 空置率

环比变幅（百分点）

张江 4.70 ↓0.6% 17.8% ↑0.3

漕河泾 4.82 ↔ 10.9% ↓2.3

漕河泾浦江 2.66 ↓0.7% 21.7% ↑1.9

北静安 4.21 ↓0.5% 13.9% ↓1.9

金桥 3.62 ↑0.8% 24.1% ↓1.6

临空 4.24 ↓1.4% 12.7% ↑1.2

陆家嘴软件园 6.70 ↔ 19.0% ↑1.0

外高桥 3.29 ↔ 51.8% ↑37.1

资料来源：莱坊研究部

资料来源：莱坊研究部

图一上海商务园区市场租金走势

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新增供应量（左轴） 净吸纳量（左轴） 空置率（右轴）

第三季度，上海商务园区市场仅有一个新项目入市，位于浦东外高桥的森兰美奂项目竣工交付，为市场带来约71,100平方米的新增面积，将整个商务园区市场的存量推升至近1,000万平方米。森兰美奂总建筑面积约为29万平方米，为招商蛇口与外高桥股份共同开发的商办综合项目，办公部分为两栋标准甲级写字楼，目前其中一栋在出租。

第三季度上海商务园区的市场净吸纳量回落至46,000平方米，而整个前三季度的商务园区净吸纳量约为37.5万平方米，与近两年同期相比都是大幅减少。净吸纳的萎缩主要还是与市场租赁活动减少以及近期新入市项目去化速度放缓有关。第三季度，浦西的漕河泾、浦东的张江以及金桥是净吸纳量贡献较大的几个区域。

第三季度，上海商务园区市场空置率环比增加0.2个百分点至16.7%。商务园区的研发楼以及数据中心主要需求仍然来自新能源汽车及配件、人工智能以及传统制造

资料来源：莱坊研究部

7月26日，市政府办公厅印发《上海市人民政府关于本市促进跨国公司地区总部发展的若干意见》，并于9月1日起开始正式实施。其中，对于地区总部认定标准的放宽，使得轻资产型的科技企业可以符合地区总部认定，进而享受到财政补贴和税收减免等政策优惠。这些企业可以将这些资金投入到项目研发以及扩大规模中去，间接促进本地商务园区研发楼、研发中心和数据中心租赁需求的增长。

8月6日，国务院批准设立中国（上海）自由贸易试验区临港新片区，旨在临港新片区形成前沿科技研发、跨境服务贸易等多项功能的集聚。目前先行产业智能网联和新能源汽车在临港已形成产业集聚。第三

季度，有超过20个智能网联新能源汽车项目在临港新片区签约，涉及范围包含制造、应用、服务和功能平台四大类型，总投资近人民币80亿元。随着越来越多智造企业的入驻，临港地区乃至整个商务园区市场的高品质研发楼的租赁需求将稳定增长。

9月13日，上海市印发《关于建设人工智能上海高地 构建一流创新生态的行动方案（2019-2021年）》。方案提出，上海要打造智能芯片、智能网联汽车、智能机器人、智能硬件等重点产业集群，布局浦东张江、临港新片区、徐汇滨江、闵行马桥等产业创新重点集聚区。作为未来重点发展的前沿科技，人工智能及其周边产业的

发展极具潜力，对于上述重点集聚区的商务园区市场的发展具有推动作用。

9月26日，《上海5G产业发展和应用创新三年行动计划（2019-2021年）》发布。上海计划到2021年，实现5G制造业、软件和信息服务业以及应用产业规模均达到人民币1,000

亿元，5G芯片相关设备、器件实现量产，5G

产业链企业数量超过300家。5G产业在金桥、张江、漕河泾、华为园区、G60科创走廊形成产业集聚。可以预见，作为各类先进科技应用场景的技术基础，5G技术未来三年将实现高速发展。5G技术的发展将带动其上下游产业的同步发展，对于提升本地市场高品质研发中心、数据中心以及研发型写字楼的需求具有积极意义。

第三季度，上海商务园区市场共有两宗整购交易，其中一宗位于浦东张江，另一宗位于漕河泾浦江。

9月份，国内综合金融服务机构中融国际从上海临港手中收购浦江科技广场的一栋写

字楼，总建筑面积约为24,151平方米。浦江科技广场位于闵行漕河泾浦江板块，为一生态办公研发园区。

9月份，第九城市通过股权交易的形式将持有的位于浦东张江的张江微电子港3号楼项

目售予吉宝置业中国，整个交易金额为人民币4.93亿元，最终的股权转让价款需经完成交易后调整确认。该项目为一栋四层建筑，总建筑面积约为14,518平方米。该交易预计将于2019年第四季度完成。

投资市场

11月5日，第二届中国国际进口博览会在位于虹桥商务区的国家会展中心如期开幕。进博会会向国民展示具有最新的技术、服务以及产品。越来越多的位于科技前沿行业例如生物医药、高端制造、人工智能等的企业都有机会透过进博会的展示进入国内市场。

对于商务园区市场而言，规模型的研发中心、数据中心的租赁需求都将由于这些企业进入而获得提升。此外，上海继续致力

于科创中心的打造，智造企业的数量将持续增加，因而针对高科技企业的个性化定制研发楼的需求将大幅增加。对于关注商务园区市场的投资者而言，能够提供个性化定制服务和更高标准试验室配置的高品质研发楼的需求将持续增加，此类产品将存在投资机会。

上海作为国内5G技术最先试用的城市，已经正式进入5G商用时代。智慧办公、智能

安防、远程医疗、虚拟现实技术下的多人娱乐等诸多还处于初级阶段的应用场景将随着5G技术的成熟被广泛应用。随着5G

业务的高速成长，相关企业投入的研发能力也在不断增加，与其相适应的商务园区办公面积租赁需求也在急剧增加。第三季度，华为以及中国电信分别在浦东金桥的金闽园和金桥现代产业服务园租用办公面积，拓展其5G业务。

市场热点

租金企业的外迁、园区租赁活动的减少以及近期新入市项目去化速度放缓均会造成空置面积的增加，因此不少园区的业主方为获得更好的入驻率，继续施行降低报价以及给予租客更多装免期的租赁策略。第三季度，上海商务园区市场平均租金环比微降0.5%至每天每平方米人民币4.23元。

第三季度，大部分商务园区的租金均呈下跌态势。浦西的临空、漕河泾浦江以及浦东张江是第三季度市场租金跌幅较大的几个区域。其中，临空和漕河泾浦江的市场租金分别环比下跌1.4%和0.7%至每天每平方米人民币4.24和2.66元；而张江也环比下跌0.6%至每天每平方米人民币4.7元。

第三季度，金桥商务园区市场表现较好，市场租金环比上涨0.8%至每天每平方米人民币3.62元。受益于5G相关企业租赁需求的增加，区域内的租赁市场较为活跃，增加了业主方涨租意愿，因此带动了所在区域的租金上扬。

业。不过，5G技术的研发潮有望带动5G研发企业及相关硬件设备制造企业对于商务园区租赁需求的提升。第三季度，浦西漕河泾以及浦东金桥的市场空置率环比分别

降低2.3和1.5个百分点至10.9%和24.1%，空置率的下降与区域内5G相关企业租赁需求的增加关系密切。

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