Ses Oxford Lecture
43
THREAT OR CHALLENGE For more than six days Earth has been our friend in the lunar skies. That fragile piece of blue with its ancient rafts of life will continue to be man's home as he journeys ever farther in the solar system. Apollo 17, December 14, 1972 CLIMATE DESTABILISATION
Transcript of Ses Oxford Lecture
THREAT OR CHALLENGE
For more than six days Earth has been our friend in the lunar skies. That fragile piece of blue with its ancient rafts of life will continue to be man's home as he journeys ever farther in the solar system.
Apollo 17, December 14, 1972
CLIMATE DESTABILISATION
Opportunity or Threat.......
1. Is there a real problem?2. Is it man made?3. Can we do anything about
it?
1. ‘Global’ Risk Management
Is there a
problem?
“action”
Yes No
False
• Economic harm
• Happy• No cost
True
• Economic harm but worthwhile
• Global disasters
• Political• Social• Public health• Economic
Opportunity or Threat.......
1. Is there a real problem?2. Is it man made?3. Can we do anything about
it?
Question of Sustainability
IPCC says 90% chance that global warming caused by human activity
Population rising 200,000 per day
Global economy energy demands rising
Manufacturing going East
West’s thirst for consumerism going East too
› If the world consumed like Europe does we would need another 3 earths to dispose of the waste
› American consumes x35 more than an Indian
Very few apparent solutions and very little being done about it
21001800
2008
2050
1900 2000
5
10
Bill
ion
s
Philosophy, Moral Values
Economics, Politics
Energy Cycle
Carbon Cycle
Opportunity or Threat.......
1. Is there a real problem?2. Is it man made?3. Can we do anything about
it?
Biosphere
Subterranean
Atmosphere
CO2
CxHy
Biological process
Biosphere
Subterranean
CARBON CYCLE
Biological process
CO2
CxHy
Chemical process
Biological process
Biosphere
Subterranean
CARBON CYCLE
Biological process
Sequestering
CO2
CxHySequestering
Chemical process
Biological process
Biosphere
SubterraneanFossil fuel
CARBON CYCLE
Biological process
(Chemical process)
In summary The biosphere
is immensely energy rich
is very fragile
recent human activity is a serious threat to it
a ‘closed system’ with regard to carbon
Carbon dioxide is a massive pollutant
CO2
CxHySequestering
Chemical process
Biological process
Biosphere
SubterraneanFossil fuel
CARBON CYCLE
Biological process
(Chemical process)
Carbon Cycle Framework
As part of the biosphere we are all CO2 emitters, including plants
Inevitable and natural just like every other species
Homo sapiens digging up locked up C from the ground which is the residue of eons of history
World imperatives must be to modify our use of fossil fuels, particularly coal
Use what we need to use wisely
1
Chemical Engineering
O2
CO2
C CxHY
CO2 + H20
O2
Chemical Engineering
O2
CO2
C CxHY
CO2 + H20
O2
Hydrocarbons
O2
CO2
C CxHY
CO2 + H20
O2
Carbon
O2
CO2
C CxHY
CO2 + H20
O2
2
Fuels
Processes
Storage options
CO2 capture and storage system
Geological storage
Storage prospectivity
Highly prospective sedimentary basins
Prospective sedimentary basins
Non-prospective sedimentary basins, metamorphic and igneous rock
Data quality and availability vary among regions
Geological storage
Temperance
1. Reduction2. Reuse3. Recycling and composting4. Energy recovery5. Landfill with energy6. Landfill
Waste Hierarchy
3
Temperance
What makes us happy? What makes us “well
beings”
Adair Turner - GDP
Level 1: freedom from:
hunger physical
insecurity drudgery
Level 2: wealth consumption disposability time poverty ????
Increasing GDP beyond L1 doesn’t work
Ha
pp
ine
ss
Prosperity
L1
L2
In Summary1. A big picture
2. What is this world that we are custodians of?
3. What do we want energy for?
4. The inevitable role of carbon?
5. How we can curb our energy use and be successful custodians
Links• www.bigpictureviewofclimatechange.co
m• email: [email protected]• http://www.wonderingmind42.com• http://www.ipcc.ch• http://onehundredmonths.org/
Books• Do Good Lives Have to Cost the Earth?• An Inconvenient Truth• Ethics of Climate Change• A Green New Deal
Became a climate watcher 20 months ago
The world was waking me up to the problem but
The world was still unable to act collectively and decisively.
Now I see climate change as:
An opportunity to:
mitigate a threat
consider how we have to exist:
more responsibly on a planet
which is not infinite.
1. Management
2. Philosophy
3. Economics
4. Demography
5. Chemistry
6. Geology
7. Biology
8. Oceanography
9. Climate
Science
10. Engineering
11. Politics
1. ‘Global’ Risk Management
CDMan-
made?
“action”
Yes No
False
• Economic harm
• Happy
True
• Economic harm but worthwhile
• Global disasters
• Political• Social• Public health• Economic
Current Big Picture
IPCC says 90% chance that global warming caused by human activity
Population rising 200,000 per day
Global economy energy demands rising
Emissions rising
Manufacturing going East
West’s thirst for consumerism going East too
› If the world consumed like Europe does we would need another 3 earths to dispose of the waste
Very few solutions
“We can only perform this experiment once”
Current Big Picture
IPCC says 90% chance that global warming caused by human activity
CIA Fact book says world population is rising at >200,000 per day
Global economy energy demands rising
Manufacturing going East
West’s thirst for consumerism going East too
› If the world consumed like Europe does we would need another 3 earths to dispose of the waste
8. Oceanography, Climate Science
The natural carbon sink The Conveyor Belt
Threatened by the polar ice-cap melt
If it stops CO2 released from sea
Frozen Tundra Threatened by the
polar ice-cap melt Methane released
from frozen lakes
Philosophy, Moral Values
Economics, Politics
Energy Cycle
Carbon Cycle
• Happiness• Greed• Succession• Waste
• Incentives rather than
• prohibition• Renewable
Alternatives• Transport• Space Heating• Food• Manufacturing• Electricity
• Bigger view of C cycle
• Better use of bio processes
• Extraction vs emission
What can we do?
Understand the real problem Draw up a series of measures
which are : Effective, by directly addressing
the problem Practical, where control can be
practically applied Work well together Measurable and incentivisable Do not obfuscate Do a few things really well
From Here?
UNDERSTAND THE PROBLEM Try applying the framework to
› Your actions
› Others’ actions and recommendations
Look for the few things that will work for all
When materialism is rife, I shall incarnate myself Shri Krishna
The creation is telling us to act and our intelligence can say how
3. Chemistry, Geology
Back to principle
Carbon
› A brilliant resource
› CO2 and HCs not an obvious pollutant, but it has a massive effect
Compiling a ‘big view’ of the carbon cycle
› Lots of talk about aspects of the problem
› Lots of polemic
› Where’s the big picture and solution?
O2
CO2 + H2O
C CxH2x+2
“The search for truth is in one way hard and in another easy. For it is evident that no one can master it fully, nor miss it wholly. But each adds a little to our knowledge of Nature, and from all the facts assembled there arises a certain grandeur.”
Aristotle
Al Gore
Excellent wake up call 300pp of problem and 16
pp of solutions Politically this has started
to work Coherent and acceptable
strategies needed
Al Gore’s recipe
At Home:› Low energy
Lighting Appliances
› Heating› Insulation› Home energy audit› Heat water sparingly› Switch to green
power› Reuse› Waste management
Outside the home› Reduce driving› Mpg› Biofuels› Telecommute› Reduce air travel› Carbon offsets
Do these stand up to scrutiny?
Where are these emissions?
Energy Total› Power 24 24› Industry 14 38› Transport 14 52› Buildings 8 60› Other 5 65
Non Energy› Land use 18 18› Agriculture 14 32› Waste 3 35
Stern Review
THREAT OR CHALLENGE
For more than six days Earth has been our friend in the lunar skies. That fragile piece of blue with its ancient rafts of life will continue to be man's home as he journeys ever farther in the solar system.
Apollo 17, December 14, 1972
CLIMATE DESTABILISATION
