Senior Gas Analyst International Energy Agency · Constanza Jacazio Senior Gas Analyst...
Transcript of Senior Gas Analyst International Energy Agency · Constanza Jacazio Senior Gas Analyst...
Constanza Jacazio
Senior Gas Analyst
International Energy Agency
Climate change and the shifting energy mix
© OECD/IEA 2015 © OECD/IEA 2015
Costanza Jacazio,
Senior Gas analyst, IEA
November 2015
Natural gas in a sustainable energy system
© OECD/IEA 2015
The usual gas industry view is:
Coal to gas switch in power generation is a large and cost efficient climate policy option
Consequently we should raise the CO2 price to make gas competitive
Renewable targets/subsidies distort markets
In any case, gas is the ideal back up for renewables so it is needed anyway
© OECD/IEA 2015
Meanwhile views from the green community
Gas is a fossil fuel which will have to be phased out
Cheap gas risks locking out renewables
Earthquakes, methane leakage, water contamination - fracking is bad
“the utility death spiral” – with solar and batteries we will not need large energy companies anyway
© OECD/IEA 2015
Electricity in Asia: the taste of things to come
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Asia ex China and Japan from 1990USA from 1950
Growth of power generation
Developing Asia 2013: 1400
kwh/capita
USA 1950:
2200 kwh/capita
Years
© OECD/IEA 2015
Coal mainly compete with long distance gas imports and will not disappear quickly
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countries with domestic gas countries with imported gas
Other
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China
Global coal-fired generation 2013 TWh
© OECD/IEA 2015
60 $/MWh
Is LNG still competitive with wind and solar?
Onshore wind
SA
52 $/MWh
US
48 $/MWh
China
80 - 100 $/MWh
Brazil
54 $/MWh
Turkey
73 $/MWh
Germany
67-100 $/MWh
Ireland
69 $/MWh
Australia
65 $/MWh
UK
120 $/MWh
India
88 $/MWh
Chile
89 $/MWh
85 $/MWh
US
~75 $/MWh
Utility PV
SA
65 $/MWh
Brazil
81 $/MWh
Dubai
<60 $/MWh
UK
120 $/MWh
Recent long-term remuneration contract prices (e.g. auctions or FITs)
Combination of technology cost reduction, better resources, appropriate regulatory framework attracting financing
Long-term PPAs and price competition effective drivers
Egypt
41 $/MWh
© OECD/IEA 2015
Electrification in Asia without coal?
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India, Indonesia, Vietnam Malaysia
15 times EU wind and solar or 6 times EU gas imports from Russia
Per capita electricity supply, Mwh/year
© OECD/IEA 2015
Integration of renewables: innovation in the “software” of clean energy
Better forecasting algorithms
Close to real time operation
Improved grid monitoring and TSO collaboration
System friendly renewables
© OECD/IEA 2015
Very large capacity with very low load factors
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capacity, GW generation, Twh
© OECD/IEA 2015
Who is cleaning the air in China?
Expansion of energy sources with low particulate and SO2 emissions 2014-2020
© OECD/IEA 2015
Power generation: On a 450ppm path, gas becomes a HIGH carbon fuel within a decade
t/mwh
© OECD/IEA 2015
Supply security concerns
Conflict with potential
gas supply security
implications
Gas production or
infrastructure
affected by conflict
or terrorism
© OECD/IEA 2015
Global production growth shifts towards OECD countries
Incremental gas supply by region, 2014 - 2020
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- 20
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OECD
Americas
OECD Asia
Oceania
Middle East FSU/non-OECD
Europe
China Africa Non-OECD
Asia
Latin America OECD Europe
Bcm
Major downward revisions 2015 v 2014
© OECD/IEA 2015
Resilient production turns North America into a major exporter
Marcellus
Cost deflation
Technological progress
Access to capital
© OECD/IEA 2015
The next wave of additional LNG supply is coming soon
Additional LNG export capacity by year, 2005 -20
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2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Bcm
United States
Russia
Southeast Asia
Qatar
Other Middle East
Latin America
Norway
Africa
Australia
© OECD/IEA 2015
Methane leakage can move gas from solution to part of the problem
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coal gas
worst case leakage best case leakage
combustion
kg/MWh
Greenhouse gas emissions from power generation
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