Seminarios tides el papel del clima
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Transcript of Seminarios tides el papel del clima
Its relevance depends on pursued activities:Outdoors
• Sun & beach• Walking - Trekking• Summer & Winter sports
Indoors• Cultural• Shopping• Business• VFR
1. Inbound tourism demand(Good) Climate as a pull factor“Given the same tourism resources, I choose
destinations with good weather”
2. Outbound tourism demand(Bad) Climate as a push factor
“I travel abroad when I want to enjoy good weather”
Tourismresource
Kind ofactivity
Climate in origin
River
Forest
Beach
Fishing
Walking
Climbing
Bad climate
Lake
Sea
Snowed mountain
Relaxing
Cycling
Good cl imate
HETEROGENEITY IN DESTINATIONS HETEROGENEITY IN
TOURISTS
Let´s have a look at the literature
Traditionally:• Not very prolific on this topic:
− Dataset limitations− Limited policymaking
Nowadays:• Awaken interest due to climate change
1 if 15 35
0 otherwise
1 if 10
0 if 10
1 if 60
0 if 60
rmrm
rmrm rm rm rm
rm
rm rm rm
rmrm
rm
ATDT
DRDDR W DT DR
DRDR DDR DTR
TRDTR
TR
≤ ≤ =
≤ = = ⋅ > = ⋅ ≤ = >
12
1r rm
m
W W=
= ∑
Step 1: Hurdles
Step 2: Final Index
4 possible choices: Not travelling: (0,0) Domestic tourism only: (1,0) International tourism only: (0,1) Both domestic and international: (1,1)
Econometric model Non-independent decisions Seemingly unrelated bivariate probit Test of independence: ρ≠0
If ρ=0, two independent probits is the correct approach
If ρ≠0, bivariate probit is the correct approach
Kernel distribution of the climate index
0.0
5.1
.15
Den
sity
0 3 6 9 12
Climate Index
Kernel density estimateNormal density
Probability of travelling and income
(Contour analysis)
NONE
ABROAD
BOTH
DOMESTIC
Probability of travelling and income
(Non-parametric analysis)
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
Probability
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
Income
None
Domestic only
Abroad only
Both
NONE
ABROAD
BOTH
DOMESTIC
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
Probability
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
Income
None
Domestic only
Abroad only
Both
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
Probability
0 1000 2000 3000
Income
None
Domestic only
Abroad only
Both
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
Probability
0 1000 2000 3000
Income
None
Domestic only
Abroad only
Both
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
Probability
0 1000 2000 3000
Income
None
Domestic only
Abroad only
Both
UK Germany
France Italy
ABROAD ABROAD
ABROADABROAD
DOMESTIC DOMESTIC
DOMESTICDOMESTIC
Climate in the origin and
destination choice
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
Probability
0 3 6 9 12
Climate Index
Domestic
Abroad
ABROAD
DOMESTIC
Contour of the probability of travelling
and climate
LoyaltySimilar probability
Participation domestically-only
(Bivariate probit model)
Domestic only01 - 1213 - 1516 - 1819 - 2122 - 2526 - 2829 - 3233 - 3637 - 4041 - 5455 - 77
Participation abroad-only
(Bivariate probit model)
Abroad only0 - 23 - 78 - 1112 - 1516 - 1920 - 2425 - 2829 - 3132 - 3536 - 3940 - 4546 - 52