Second Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call · 2015-10-18 · 2015 – 2017 Projected Financing...
Transcript of Second Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call · 2015-10-18 · 2015 – 2017 Projected Financing...
Second Quarter 2015 Earnings
Conference Call
July 29, 2015
Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Certain information contained in this presentation is forward‐looking information based on current expectations and plans that involve risks and uncertainties. Forward‐looking information includes, among
other things, statements concerning projected costs and schedules for the completion and start-up of ongoing construction projects, including expected regulatory actions and cost recovery, earnings per
share guidance, and projected financing plans. Southern Company cautions that there are certain factors that can cause actual results to differ materially from the forward‐looking information that has been
provided. The reader is cautioned not to put undue reliance on this forward‐looking information, which is not a guarantee of future performance and is subject to a number of uncertainties and other factors,
many of which are outside the control of Southern Company; accordingly, there can be no assurance that such suggested results will be realized. The following factors, in addition to those discussed in
Southern Company’s Annual Report on Form 10‐K for the year ended December 31, 2014, and subsequent securities filings, could cause actual results to differ materially from management expectations
as suggested by such forward‐looking information: the impact of recent and future federal and state regulatory changes, including legislative and regulatory initiatives regarding deregulation and
restructuring of the electric utility industry, environmental laws including regulation of water, coal combustion residuals, and emissions of sulfur, nitrogen, carbon dioxide, soot, particulate matter, hazardous
air pollutants, including mercury, and other substances, and also changes in tax and other laws and regulations to which Southern Company and its subsidiaries are subject, as well as changes in
application of existing laws and regulations; current and future litigation, regulatory investigations, proceedings, or inquiries, including pending Environmental Protection Agency civil actions against certain
Southern Company subsidiaries, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission matters, and Internal Revenue Service and state tax audits; the effects, extent, and timing of the entry of additional competition in
the markets in which Southern Company's subsidiaries operate; variations in demand for electricity, including those relating to weather, the general economy and recovery from the last recession,
population and business growth (and declines), the effects of energy conservation and efficiency measures, including from the development and deployment of alternative energy sources such as self-
generation and distributed generation technologies, and any potential economic impacts resulting from federal fiscal decisions; available sources and costs of fuels; effects of inflation; the ability to control
costs and avoid cost overruns during the development and construction of facilities, which include the development and construction of generating facilities with designs that have not been finalized or
previously constructed, including changes in labor costs and productivity, adverse weather conditions, shortages and inconsistent quality of equipment, materials, and labor, contractor or supplier delay,
non-performance under construction or other agreements, operational readiness, including specialized operator training and required site safety programs, unforeseen engineering or design problems,
start-up activities (including major equipment failure and system integration), and/or operational performance (including additional costs to satisfy any operational parameters ultimately adopted by any
Public Service Commission (“PSC”)); the ability to construct facilities in accordance with the requirements of permits and licenses, to satisfy any environmental performance standards and the requirements
of tax credits and other incentives, and to integrate facilities into the Southern Company system upon completion of construction; investment performance of Southern Company's employee and retiree
benefit plans and the Southern Company system's nuclear decommissioning trust funds; advances in technology; state and federal rate regulations and the impact of pending and future rate cases and
negotiations, including rate actions relating to fuel and other cost recovery mechanisms; legal proceedings and regulatory approvals and actions related to Plant Vogtle Units 3 and 4, including Georgia PSC
approvals and Nuclear Regulatory Commission actions and related legal proceedings involving the commercial parties; actions related to cost recovery for the integrated coal gasification combined cycle
facility under construction in Kemper County, Mississippi (“Kemper IGCC”), including actions relating to proposed securitization, Mississippi PSC approval of a rate recovery plan, the ability to utilize bonus
depreciation, which currently requires that assets be placed in service in 2015, and satisfaction of requirements to utilize investment tax credits and grants; the ultimate impact of the termination of the
proposed sale of an interest in the Kemper IGCC to South Mississippi Electric Power Association; Mississippi PSC review of the prudence of Kemper IGCC costs; the ultimate impact of the 2015 decision of
the Mississippi Supreme Court, the Mississippi PSC’s order implementing such decision, and any further related legal or regulatory proceedings; the ability to successfully operate the electric utilities'
generating, transmission, and distribution facilities and the successful performance of necessary corporate functions; the inherent risks involved in operating and constructing nuclear generating facilities,
including environmental, health, regulatory, natural disaster, terrorism, and financial risks; the performance of projects undertaken by the non-utility businesses and the success of efforts to invest in and
develop new opportunities; internal restructuring or other restructuring options that may be pursued; potential business strategies, including acquisitions or dispositions of assets or businesses, which
cannot be assured to be completed or beneficial to Southern Company or its subsidiaries; the ability of counterparties of Southern Company and its subsidiaries to make payments as and when due and to
perform as required; the ability to obtain new short- and long-term contracts with wholesale customers; the direct or indirect effect on the Southern Company system's business resulting from cyber intrusion
or terrorist incidents and the threat of terrorist incidents; interest rate fluctuations and financial market conditions and the results of financing efforts; changes in Southern Company's and any of its
subsidiaries' credit ratings, including impacts on interest rates, access to capital markets, and collateral requirements; the impacts of any sovereign financial issues, including impacts on interest rates,
access to capital markets, impacts on currency exchange rates, counterparty performance, and the economy in general, as well as potential impacts on the benefits of the U.S. Department of Energy loan
guarantees; the ability of Southern Company's subsidiaries to obtain additional generating capacity at competitive prices; catastrophic events such as fires, earthquakes, explosions, floods, hurricanes and
other storms, droughts, pandemic health events such as influenzas, or other similar occurrences; the direct or indirect effects on the Southern Company system's business resulting from incidents affecting
the U.S. electric grid or operation of generating resources; and the effect of accounting pronouncements issued periodically by standard-setting bodies. Southern Company expressly disclaims any
obligation to update any forward‐looking information.
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A growing renewable portfolio with
contributions from all major subsidiaries
3
• 46 solar projects in seven states
• Nation’s largest voluntary solar initiative in Georgia
• Over 800 MW of contracted wind at Alabama Power, Georgia Power and Gulf Power
• Over 1,200 MW of renewable resources owned by Southern Power
• Over 250 MW of solar projects with the Department of Defense
Over 3,200 MW of
Current and Planned
Renewable Resources
Solar 1,735 MW Wind
1,131 MW
Biomass
424 MW
System
Owned
1,394 MW PPAs
1,896 MW
Vogtle Update
Recent Progress
Structural steel installation in Unit 3 Area 1 Annex Building
In-ground work for Unit 3 switchyard
Unit 4 cooling tower above 100 feet
Set Unit 4 modules: CA04, CB65 and CB66
Near term
• Set Unit 3 CA01 (expected early August)
• Begin Unit 3 Shield Building installation
• Complete Unit 4 Cooling Tower to 50% vertical
• Set Unit 4 Containment Vessel Ring #1
Regulatory
• VCM12 decision expected August 18th
(Staff recommends approval)
• VCM13 to be filed late August
Unit 3 Annex Building
Unit 4 Cooling Tower
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Vogtle Unit 3 Activity
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Expected in-service date for remainder of project is 1st half 2016
• Working through startup and checkout activities
– Identifying and working to remediate issues along the way
• Control systems design and operator training on track to support project milestones
• Combined cycle operating reliably and efficiently
Working towards next set of milestones
• Fluidization trials
• First syngas
Important upcoming regulatory decisions
• MPSC meeting scheduled August 6th
– Consider interim rate request
– Consider Mirror CWIP refund proposal
• Permanent rates expected to be considered Q4
Kemper Project Update
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Q2 YTD
Earnings Per Share $0.69 $1.25
Impact of increase in Kemper cost estimate $0.02 $0.02
MCAR settlement costs - $0.01
Earnings Per Share x-items $0.71 $1.28
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2015 Earnings Results
Q2 2014 Q2 2015
$0.68
$0.71 +3¢
-1¢
-5¢
+3¢
Retail
Revenue
Impacts
Weather
Wholesale
Operations
Interest
Expense
Traditional
Operating
Companies 0¢
+1¢ -3¢
Other
Income &
Deductions
Q2 2015 vs. Q2 2014 Adjusted EPS Drivers
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-1¢
Shares
+1¢
Retail Sales Non-fuel
O&M
Note: Excludes Q2 2015 EPS impact of -2¢ for updated Kemper IGCC cost estimates; GAAP EPS was $0.69 for Q2 2015
D&A
+2¢
-1¢
Other
Operating
Revenues
Southern
Power
+2¢
Parent &
Other
+2¢
Retail Sales Growth vs. Prior Year
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Total Retail Sales
Quarter-to-date
4.6% 1.2%
2.3% 0.7%
0.1% 0.2%
2.2% 0.7%
As Reported Weather Normal*
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• First time since 2004 with growth across all customer classes in consecutive quarters
• Residential customer growth outpacing budget and prior year
• Significant vacancy rate improvements in Atlanta commercial office space
• Industrial growth continues to moderate due to a strong dollar and weak export demand
*Also reflects adjustment of 2014 KWH sales consistent with Mississippi Power’s updated methodology to estimate the unbilled revenue
allocation among customer classes implemented in the first quarter 2015
Year-to-date
-0.2% 0.7%
0.7% 0.7%
1.0% 1.1%
0.5% 0.8%
As Reported Weather Normal*
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2015 Earnings Per Share
Q3 Estimate = $1.16 per share
Appendix
2015 – 2017 Projected Financing Plan
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($ in millions) 2017 2015 - 2017
Issued Remaining Total Projected Projected Total
Projected Financings
Georgia DOE Loan 600 $ 400 $ 1,000 $ 450 $ 350 $ 1,800 $
Mississippi Bank Debt (1) 900 $ - $ 900 $ 900 $ - $ 1,800 $
Mississippi Securitization - $ - $ - $ - $ 1,000 $ 1,000 $
Capital Markets
Alabama 975 $ - $ 975 $ 500 $ 750 $ 2,225 $
Georgia (2) 105 - 105 1,200 650 1,955
Gulf - - - 100 75 175
Mississippi - - - 350 200 550
Southern Power (3) 650 300 950 250 - 1,200
Holding Company (3) 600 1,000 1,600 600 500 2,700
Total Capital Markets 2,330 $ 1,300 $ 3,630 $ 3,000 $ 2,175 $ 8,805 $
Total Debt Financings 3,830 $ 1,700 $ 5,530 $ 4,350 $ 3,525 $ 13,405 $
Common Equity Needs - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $
(1) Includes the extension or replacement of $775 million of existing bank debt in 2015 and $900 million in 2016.
(2) Represents the reoffering of revenue bonds previously held by Georgia Power since 2013.
(3) Includes placeholder financings for Southern Power growth projects in 2016 and 2017.
2015 2016
Generation Portfolio Diversity
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Capacity Factors Q2 YTD
2014 2015 2014 2015
Coal - PRB 64% 63% 68% 61%
Coal - Non-PRB 43% 34% 44% 30%
Gas - Combined Cycle 60% 62% 58% 66%
Energy Mix Q2 YTD
2014 2015 2014 2015
Natural Gas 37% 43% 36% 45%
Coal 42% 38% 43% 35%
Nuclear 17% 15% 16% 16%
Hydro/Other 4% 4% 5% 4%