SEB report: commodities stable until year end
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Transcript of SEB report: commodities stable until year end
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November 2, 2010
Bjarne Schieldrop(Chief Commodity Analyst) [email protected] +47 92 48 92 30Filip Petersson(Commodity Strategist) [email protected] +46 8 506 230 47
Commodities MonthlyReal demand for real assets
=
General Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M FED likely to embark on a second round of quantitative easing
thereby stimulating the US economy and keeping the USD weak Chinese optimism with PMI hitting 6 month high as well as strong
re-stocking ahead of the next 5 year plan starting in January 2011
Investor demand for emerging market assets in general andcommodities in particular is strong based on the emerging marketgrowth case and USD weakness
Energy Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M We expect Brent crude to trade in the upper part of the $70-90/b
range in Q4, supported by continued USD weakness, low OECDdouble dip risk and strong emerging market demand
European clean diesel demand presents some upside risk Brent crude levelled out just below $85/b in October as the dollar
stabilized Recovering OECD demand have driven IEA 2010 and 2011
consumption estimates up to 86.9 and 88.2 mb/d respectively
Industrial Metals Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M We expect strong demand for industrial metals in Q4 due to
continued Chinese energy preservation efforts, physical ETFintroductions, healthy demand and falling inventories
Industrial metals moved closer to record highs in October With the sector only marginally hurt by a Chinese interest rate
hike, a soft landing in the Chinese property sector remains likely
Precious Metals Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M While gold prices are exposed in the short term, the strategic view
remains constructive based on low interest rates, economicuncertainty, weak currencies and limited supply
The three month long gold rally was broken in October with pricesdeclining following a record high of $1388.10/ozt
The US QE2 implementation plan is key for developments in thegold price, based on its likely effect on the USD, with the FOMC(November 3) and G20 (November 11-12) meetings in focus
Agriculture Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M The agricultural rally appears to have become over-extended as
speculators place bets on further weather related disruptions In October, agricultural commodity prices continued to rally by
13.7% due to adverse weather, taking gains to 53.6% from thesummer low
A La Nia-related risk premium is justified at the moment but thephenomenon is expected to fade during the northernhemispheres spring, creating further downside risks
Arrows indicate the expected direction of the price change during the specified period.
N
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Sector Indices(price indices, weekly closing, January 2009 = 100)=
708090
100110120130
140150160170180190200
jan-09
feb-09
mar-09
apr-09
maj-09
jun-09
jul-09
aug-09
sep-09
okt-09
nov-09
dec-09
jan-10
feb-10
mar-10
apr-10
maj-10
jun-10
jul-10
aug-10
sep-10
okt-10
Industrial Metals
Precious Metals
Energy
Agriculture
=Performance overview(MSCI World, UBS Bloomberg CMCI Price Indices)
-202468
1012141618202224
2628
Equities
Commodities
Energy
Industrial
metals
Precious
metals
Agriculture
YTD (%) MoM (%)
Winners & Losers last month(closing prices, %)=
-6-4-202468
10121416182022
Power,Cont.
CO2(EUA)
Power,Nordic
Nickel
USHeat.Oil
Cocoa
Aluminium
Brent
WTI
Copper
USGasoline
PlatinumGold
USNat.GasTin
Wheat
Lead
Zinc
Soybeans
Coffe,Arabica
Steel
Silver
Palladium
Sugar
Corn
Cotton
=
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~==
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GENERAL=
bI=~=~=~==~=~=~= = = ~= ~========~=~==nNJNNK=q=~~= I= = = = ~I= =
====~===~~= ~= = = = == = K= `~= = = == ~= ~= J~= ~= = =~I= = = ~= KK= = `= mjf== = = I= `= ==NRB====p=~==`= = = ~= ~= = K= q== = = ~= = cba= = == = = ~~= ~= EnbOF=~== =lb`a== ==I= ~= = rp= = ~= = =
~= = = = = = = ~=K= q= = = = ~= ~= ~= =`~==I=lb`a======I==rpa=======~=~==~===~==K=^=~=~=~=== = = ~= ~= = = = =K==f= lI= _= `j fmf= ====QKTB=L===NPB==== = = = ~= J= ~==== ~=~=~K=e~= = = = ~= == = = ~= = = VM= ~= = OMMUK=a= l= = rpa= = = ~= OB== ~= ~= = ~=K=q=~~====I=~=NPKTB=L=~== = MKTB= = I= NKRB= = ~=~= ~= QKTB= = = ~K= t=~~= ~= ~= rpa= ~=~~== ~== =I= =~~= = = =~== =~~=~=~~=~=K==
=^~= = = ~====~==l=U== ~= rpa = = = = ~==rp=====~==~=NRJ~===~K=c===== = = = = = = rp=b~= m= ^= Ebm F= =~= = ~= = OMMT= = = NRB=~= = ~I= ~= = = =~~= ~= rp= ~= ~=~= = ~= ~~= =
~=~=~K==
^= = = = lI= = gmj~=~= ~~= = = =~I= = ~= ~K= q= == = ~= NQJ= == == =
I= = = ~= K= f=~~I= = = = = = ~== = ~I= ~= ~= = == = = = = ~= =K= q= lb`a= `= i~=f~= E`ifF== =p= == ~= = = = `~~~I=c~I= f~I= = rhI= _~I= `~= ~= f~== ~= = rp= ~= ~= = ~K=`I=`if= ~~= =d~I= g~~=~=o~=~==~=~K==
f=`~= ==~== = ~= ==~==mjf=~~I==~=QJ== p= ~= = `=~~=~=J~~= ~=== eN= OMNM= ~= ~= = = =K= p= ~I= `= = =NOKOB= = lK= c= = = `== = ~= = = = = == = _~= ~= ^~~= = = == = = `= = == = ~= = = = = =~~= = = = ~= = = RJ~=
= ~= = = g~~= OMNNK=t=`= = = ~= ==~==pI===~=~= = ~= = = K= f= I= =~=E=F=~==== ~= = ~= = ~= = ~=l==~=====~K=^=`~===nP===VKSB=LI=~JJ~= =~=~~== = == =~=~====~K===
pI=d~= f==== = = NMSKU= = p= =NMTKS==lI= == ==^=OMMT= = = ~= == ~= = = = pK=j~= = = ~= =~=~===~==== = ~= ~= = ~=== ~= I= =~I== gmj~= ~~= mjf= ~=~=lb`a=~=~K==
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O
ENERGY==
t= =_== = ~= = ==~= = = ATMJVML= ~= = nQJNM= == rpa= ~K= q= clj`===k= P==~==
=~~= ~==nbOI====~~=rp=~=~~===dOM== = k= NNJNOK= q~== =~= ===== = = = = ~== ~= ~~= = I== ~~= = K=r==~~====== == = ~= = OMNN=~= lb`a= ~= = ~~= = =K=^=~===== == b~= ~= = ~= I= ~=
~====OMMU===~K=mI====~====~I==~~===OMMU=K=f==~= = I= = = = _== = ~= ~= AVMLK= f= == I= = ~= ~= ~=Jlmb = = ~= = =~= ~= = ~K= t== = _= = = ~= = == ~= = = ~= ATMJVML= ~= =OMNNK==f= lI= _= = = ~= ~=
======~=ATRJURL=~K= a= = ~= ~I= ~== = ~= ~= = =====~===I=====~=~===AURLK=fI= = = = = ~~= = ~==~=~=~==I=~===~===~K=t==~==== = = = ~= = == ~= = = = = ~~= == nbO= ~I= ~= = =m= _~= = `~= ~= = ~I=
_====~=~~=MKTB==~=AUPKNRLK==^= = c= = = ~= ~=== ~~= ~= = = = l==~=~~K=eI===~== = ~= = = ~= = ~=~=~==~==~=~===~=~=~==~=K===d~===~=~==OMNM=~=OMNN==~====l=
~===~=K=lmb`=~===~= = I= = = OMNM= ~= OMNN=~= ~= = UM= L= = URKRV= L=
~= USKSQ= L= K= q= rp=a~= = b= EalbF= = I=~= = OMNM= ~= ~= = NNM=L== USKMS=L=~=OMNN===UM=
L= = UTKQQ= LK= eI= = ~======~==== = I= = = fb^= =~= = OMNM=~=~==POM=L= = USKVM= L= ~= = OMNN= ~=~==OTM=L==UUKOM=LK=f===== = = ~= =~I= ~I= ~= = = =lb`a= ~K=d~= = = = = NRM=L==USKV=L==p===~=Jlmb`=K=lmb`=~=~~===RKVP=L==lI=NQM=L==~==
pK==
Monthly global demand estimates= 2010
(mb/d)Revision
(kb/d)2011
(mb/d)Revision
(kb/d)IEA 86.90 +320 88.20 +270
EIA 86.06 +110 87.44 +80
OPEC 85.59 +80 86.64 +80
=rp=====UPQS===l=~==~=~====~~=~~= ~= E= NPB= ~== R= ~KFK= c= = ~= ~I= =~= ~=~= =I= TSQT==~= RNQT= = = E= TB= ~=OOB= ~= = R= ~KFK= ^= ~= lb`a=I= = fb^= = ~= ====NRKU===OTVM==ESNKN=~==F= = ^I= = = ==NVVUK==^=I==lmb`===l=NQ=~==~=~=K=f=~=~= ~= ~= = = = ~~= ~===K=n~=~=== RQB= = p=K= RMB= = ^K=^= ~=
I= = = ~= =~=~= ~=NKVP=LK=_==~= ~= = I= ~= = ~J== ~= ~= ~= ANMML= ~= ~= ~== = = ~= ~K=eI= = = ~= =~~==~==~==== = = ATMJUML= ~= = ~= ~=K= q= = ~~= ==~=~==n=Eb~F==a=NN====~=====s~= E^~F== = ===g=
OMNNK==
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P
q~=~~= ENMNMOUFW=l= ~= ~== ~= K= f= == === = ~= = ~= = = = = ==~=PJ=~~=I=~=== == ~== ~== ~=AURKTRL== =~K= m= = ~= = =
AUML=~====~K==
c
==q=_~====VKRB==l===~========_~=~= ^~~= = `~K= ^= `= ==~=~=~==== = pI= = = ~== = ~= = = ~= =lK=f~=====`~=~= = = ~~= `=
K=`I== = = =====nQJNM==== ==~= = K=q===~=~= ~= = === == = = = f~= = = ~=o~= ~= = ~K=t= = == = nQ= = = = `=~=~===K=f=lI==_~=~=~==E=F==MKRBI= ~= = _~== ~= = E=F==NMKRBK=o~=~=~======~=K=i=========c===~==~=~=b~==~=~=~== = c= = ~= == = K=t= = = ==~=~=~===~====~===~=~=~= I= = nQ= = ~~=~====~===~~=~~K==
Freight Indices(BFX, weekly closing, January 2002 = 100)=
0100200300400500600700800900
100011001200130014001500
2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400450
500Baltic Dry Index (left axis)
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (right axis)
Baltic Clean Tanker Index (right axis)
=`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~==
k=m
==p~=~=====k= m=~I= = = = ~~== ~= = = ~= ~=~~==~J~K=a==~=
==lI=~===~==== ~= = ~= = = ~= =~= ~K= eI= = ~=~~=~=~====~=~=~=~=~==== = ~~= = ~= OM= qt= =K=_~======~=== = = = = ~= ~== = = ~= ~~~= =~= K= h= ~= = = = ~=~= = p= = ~= =K=
=q=l====~==~I=~~=bro=QVKSSLjtK=q=p==~~=~~==bro=NKSQLjt=~=== =~=~= = ===~=~= ~= ~= = =k~= ~= pK= c= = = = =l= OMMV= d~= = = =~=kK=f==I=====~=~=~====~=~===~= = = c~= ~= == = = ~= = = ~=
bK==q= ~= ~= = ~= = == = ~===lK=^= ~== ~= = = ~= = bro= RMJROLjtI=nNJNN======== = = ~= bro= QUKUMLjtK= q=d~= ~= ~= = K= =k==~==l=~===~=~==K=nNJNN=~=~==voJNN=~==~=bro=PLjt===d~K==p= ~= ~~~= ~= ~= == = = = ~K= l=~~I= = RMB= = ~= ~~= ~== =l= = = ~~= ~~=~=~= L==~I= ~= = == ~= ~K= mI= = ~=~~===~==OMMVK=l=~=====~=~====~==~~~===I=~= = = = ~= p=~=~=~===~==K==
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Q
CRUDE OIL=
Crude oil price(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)=
102030405060708090
100110120130
140150
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
NYMEX W TI
ICE Brent
=
US crude oil inventories(DOE, mb, weekly data)=
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
j f m a m j j a s o n d
2005-2009 avg.
2009
2010
=
OIL PRODUCTS=
Gasoline and heating oil prices(NYMEX, /gal, front month, weekly closing)=
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
NYMEX Gasoline
NYMEX Heating oil
=
Gasoline and distillate inventories(DOE, mb, weekly data)=
110
120
130140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
j f m a m j j a s o n d
Gasoline 2005-2009 avg.
Gasoline 2010
Distillate fuel oil 2004-2008 avg.
Distillate fuel oil 2010
=
POWER=
Nordic power price(Nord Pool, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)=
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Continental power price(EEX, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)=
202530354045505560657075
80859095
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
===
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CO2 NATURAL GAS=
EUA price(ECX ICE, /t, Dec. 11, weekly closing)
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
US natural gas prices(NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)=
0123456789
101112
131415
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
==
FUTURES CURVES=WTI(NYMEX, $/b)=
7980
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
dec-10
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
10-10-22
10-09-30
10-10-29
=
Brent(ICE, $/b)=
8283
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
dec-10
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
10-10-22
10-09-30
10-10-29
==
Heating oil(NYMEX, /gal)=
220222224226228230232234
236238240242244246248250
dec-10
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
10-10-22
10-09-30
10-10-29
=
US natural gas(NYMEX, $/MMBtu)=
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
6,5
nov-10
mar-11
jul-11
nov-11
mar-12
jul-12
nov-12
mar-13
jul-13
nov-13
mar-14
jul-14
nov-14
mar-15
jul-15
nov-15
mar-16
jul-16
nov-16
mar-17
10-10-22
10-09-30
10-10-29
===
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=INDUSTRIAL METALS==
a= = ~= ~= = ~=~= = = ~= = I= = =~= ~I= = ~= = === ~=~= == ~=
= ~= K= t= = =`= = ~= I= == = ~= ~= ~=~= = EbqcFI= = ~= E== = ~= = ~F= ~=~= = = = ~~====nQK=t=====~=~==== c~= o= ~= ~= = =nbO= ~= = k= P= Eclj`=FK=f==I==~==I=~=~==~==dOM===
k= NNJNOK=`= ===`= ~= = ~= ~== ~= = ~= ~I= ~= =~= ~~= = = = ~= ~=I= = = = ==~==~K==q=~=~=~====l=~= = nbOJ= ~= = ~= ~==m=_~==`~===~I==~=~==~=~==~=~= ~= ~= = ~= K= q== = = = = ~= =EHNMKRBFI===~=EHTKSBFI==EHRKQBFI== EHOKPBF= ~= ~= EJMKPBFK= q== = ~= = EJOKNBFK= f= =I= = = ~= = =~=====lK=w=~= == ===`== = ~~= = ~== = = = ~= ~= K= q=====~==i~=k~J~= ~K= f=l= = fjc= = ~== = = ~= ~= = =~I= = = ~= = ~=
K= c= = = = ===~===~=== = ~= = ~= ==~==K==a= ~= = ~= ~= ~I=~= ~= bqc= = ~= == = = ~= ~== ~= ~~= = ~= ~== = = = = ijb=~~J~=K= `I= = = ~~~=~= = = ~= ~~= I= ~= =
= = ~I= = = =~= ~K= m= ~= ~==~=====~=~==
= ~= ~= ijb= ~= E~I=I= I= I= ~= ~= FI= =~= ~= =~= ~= ~= ~= =K==
LME prices and inventories m/m
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Aluminium
Copper
Nickel
Zinc
Lead
Tin
Steel
Price (%) Inventories (%)
=`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~==
^
==^===rpa=OPMPJOQNTL==lI====MKPB==~=rpa=OPOPLK= f= == = = RJ= = = = = K=`~= ~~= = ~= = ~=~= = EQKSBFK= q= ~= =~= ~= ~~= = lK=
^=~===~=~~== = = lK= j~I=~=~=====lb`a=~=I= = `= =~=====OMMRJOMNM==~= ~= = ijb= == = ~= ~I= ~= = ~K= f=~I= = = = = == = ~K= t= = = ==I=~====== AOMMMLK=q~=~~= ENMNMOUFW= p=~= ~= ~= = g~~L^= NMMB=
===AOPVRLK=q====~== = ~= = = ~L= ~= ~=K= ^= = = = ~= ONJ~= ~~== ~= = ~= = = = == PJ= ~~= I= = ~= ~=AOOTMLK= m= ~= ~= AOQOQL= ===~===~==~===K==
`
==`= = = rpa= UMRVJURNRL= =
lI====OKPB==~=rpa=UNVNLK= f= == = = UJ= = K= `~= ~~=
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~= ~==EPKTBFK= `= =~~~= ~= ~~= =lK= `= = ~= = = =J= = = = ~= ~== = ~K=p~= = ~= = = =
==~=~=~K=^===f~~= `= p=d= Ef`pdF= ===OMNN==~==~==~=QMM=I==~===ijb=K=a=~=~===I==== ~= = ~= K= `= ==~~===~=~==== ~= ~= ANMIMMM= = OMNNK= q~=~~=ENMNMOUFW=t==~==~=~=I===~=J==~===~=K=eI=~==~= = ~= ~= = = = ONJ~=
~~I==~=AUORMLI===~=~K=eI= = =~= ~= ~= = ~===I===PJ=~~=I==~= ~= ATUUMLI= = = ~= =~=K==
k
==k= = = rpa= OOTRMJOQTSUL= =lI====OKNB==~=rpa=OOVPPLK= f= = = = ====~=~=~=== = gK= `~= ~~=~= ~= = EPKSBFK= k== = l= ~= ==~==~~=~==== ~~= ~= ~= ~= = =~= ~= ~= = ~= =~~K= k= = = ~= ~= == = = = = = = nQ= = = ~=~~= = ~= = K=^= `= = = = EkmfF== ~= = ~= = = =~= = = ~I=~= = = ~= ~K=
fI= = = = = ~== = = == = =~== = = OMNN= = ~= ~=~= = = = K= q~=~~= ENMNMOUFW= k~= I= = ~=~===ONJ~=~~=~=~=~=====PJ=~~=K=f==~===I=KK==AOORQMLI====~=~===~==I===J=~~=EOMMJ~=~=AONSQMLI=OPPJ~=~=AONMQMLFK=m=~=AOQMORL=~===~==~===K=
w
==w= = = rpa= OONQJORVPL= =lI====NMKRB==~=rpa=OQMNLK= q= = = = ~K=f====~=~=~=
= K= `~= ~~= =~= = = = = ESKOBFK=rI=w=~=====lK=t==~=~===I= ~= = = `=~= = = = = ~=====~=== = ~I= = = = = =~= = ~= = ~= =~=~=====K=q=~= === ~~=== ~==~= ~= =K=
eI== = = = = == = ~= = = ~=~== ~= K= f= ~I= =~= = ~= ~=~I= ~== ~== = = = ~= ~== ~= K= q~= ~~=ENMNMOUFW= q= ~= ~= = = ~= =I==~==K=f======ONJ~=~~I==~=AOQMMLI=~~=~=~~=K=^===~= ~= = = = = EAOSNRLF= ===~==EAOTPMLFK==
p
==ijb=====rpa=QOSJRMNL==lI= = ==NOKNB== ~=rpa= QVRLK= q= = = ~=~K= f= = ~K= p== = ~= ========~== = ~= I= KK= = I== ~I= ~= ~= ~=K= `=~= = = = ~= ~~= ===^~~=~=_~==== ~= = = = K=`= = = = == =nQK=^= = = t= p= ^~=Etp^F= = = =~== ~====RKPB==NPKNB==OMNMK=f=~==f~= ~= `~= ~= p= ^~= ~=~=`~===~=~==OMNNK=pI= `= = = ~= = ====~===~==~==RJ~=~=~===~===== = K= q= = ~= ~= = ~= = =====~===OMNN==
===~=~=ANRML=`co=`~K==
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ALUMINIUM=
Aluminium price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
2500
2750
3000
3250
3500
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Aluminium stocks(LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SHFE
COMEX
LME
==
COPPER=
Copper price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Copper stocks(LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SHFE
COMEX
LME
=
NICKEL=
Nickel price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
3500040000
45000
50000
55000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Nickel stocks(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=
-
8/8/2019 SEB report: commodities stable until year end
10/20
SEB Commodity Research
V
ZINC=
Zinc price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Zinc stocks(LME/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SHFE
LME
=
LEAD=Lead price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Lead stocks(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
25000
50000
75000
100000
125000
150000
175000
200000
225000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
TIN=
Tin price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
18000
21000
24000
27000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Tin stocks(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=
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8/8/2019 SEB report: commodities stable until year end
11/20
SEB Commodity Research
NM
STEEL=
Steel price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=
375
400
425
450
475
500
525
550
575
600
625
650
aug-09
okt-09
dec-09
feb-10
apr-10
jun-10
aug-10
okt-10
=
Steel stocks(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
jul-08
okt-08
jan-09
apr-09
jul-09
okt-09
jan-10
apr-10
jul-10
okt-10
=
FUTURES CURVES=Aluminium(LME, $/t)=
23002325
23502375240024252450247525002525255025752600
nov-10
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
feb-13
maj-13
aug-13
nov-13
feb-14
maj-14
aug-14
nov-14
10-10-22
10-09-30
10-10-29
=
Copper(LME, $/t)=
6900700071007200730074007500760077007800790080008100820083008400
nov-10
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
feb-13
maj-13
aug-13
nov-13
feb-14
maj-14
aug-14
nov-14
10-10-22
10-09-30
10-10-29
==
Nickel(LME, $/t)=
2000020250205002075021000212502150021750
22000222502250022750230002325023500
nov-10
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
feb-13
maj-13
aug-13
nov-13
feb-14
maj-14
aug-14
nov-14
10-10-22
10-09-30
10-10-29
=
Zinc(LME, $/t)=
215021752200222522502275230023252350237524002425245024752500252525502575
nov-10
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
feb-13
maj-13
aug-13
nov-13
feb-14
maj-14
aug-14
nov-14
10-10-22
10-09-3010-10-29
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~
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8/8/2019 SEB report: commodities stable until year end
12/20
SEB Commodity Research
NN
=PRECIOUS METALS==
e= = = = = = k== ====~==~= = = ~= = rp= nbOK=m~=~====~==
=clj`===k=PK=t====~=~==~~===dOM===k=NNJNO=~====~= ~= ~= J= =~~=~K=l=~~====~= = ~= ~== = ~== = = ~= = == K= q= = ~= ~~= =~= = = ~= = = = =I= = = = = = dOM=~= ~K= q= ~= = = =~= = ~= = = = ~I=
~= = ~I= = =I= ~= ~= = =~= = ~= = ~= = =K= q= = = ~= ~== = = = = ~~= == = = = = = =~K=eI= = = = ======~~==I== =~I== =~== ~= ~= ~= bqc=K==q===~=~=~~===
=~==l=~==~===~= = rp= nbO= ~= = ~=~K= ^= = ~= ~= = = =ANPUUKNML= ~= = = = ~===~==I=~=~= nbO= ~= ~= ~~= = =K=q==~===PJ==J====~==== = = = ~= = ~=J~K=l===~=~==~~=EHNOKVBFI=== =EHNOKSBFI=~=EHTKRBF=~==EHSKNBFK=
=q=b~=mffdp=~=~=~=~==lI===`ap=~=~== K= d= = == = `= ~= ~= == = = = d= = ~== ~~= = ~= ~=~== ==~K=d=~===~==J==J~=~K==e===pmao======lI==NO==EMKVBF==NOVP=I=
= ~= = = = = ENPOM=FK= j~= ~= ~= ~== = = K= o~= ~=
~= ~= = ~= ~= = ~==~= =NMM= = ==== TPR= K= `= ~= ~= ~== = = = = = ~= ~=
~= = = = =rp= E^W=rp= =UNPQ==K=`~W=NMRQ=FK=^== = `cq`I= `ljbu= ~= == ~= ~= ~= = = =lK==p= ~= ~= ~= PMJ~= = = lI== = ~= ~~= = ~==AORL====~==~= = = ~= K= `~== I= = = = = ~=~= ~= = = = ~= bqcK=
q==~=~==bqcI=p~== I= ~= = = PRR= =EPKSBF= = NMNQO= = = lK= q=L=~===~~=J==ERRKP=~=JlFK=m~~=~=== = = = l= == ~=o~==I=~= ~= = = I= = =~=~=~=~==~K==q~= ~~I= = ENMNMOUFW= d= ===~===K=i~=
= ~= = ~= = = ~= == = = ~= ANPRML= ~= ~= == = = = = = = PJ=~~=I=~=~= ANPMMLI==~~===~==K=m=~=ANPRML=====K==
Gold and selected currencies vs. USD
-6-4-202468
1012141618202224
GOLD EUR JPY GBP SEK RUB
YTD (%) MoM (%)
=`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~==
-
8/8/2019 SEB report: commodities stable until year end
13/20
SEB Commodity Research
NO
GOLD=
Gold price(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Gold to silver ratio(front month, weekly closing)=
44
48
52
56
60
64
68
72
76
80
84
88
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
==
SILVER PLATINUM / PALLADIUM=
Silver price(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Platinum and palladium prices(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=
100
200300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
300
550
800
1050
1300
1550
1800
2050
2300
Palladium (left axis)
Platinum (right axis)
==
FUTURES CURVES=
Gold(COMEX, $/ozt)=
1300
1325
1350
1375
1400
1425
1450
1475
1500
1525
dec-10
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15
jun-15
sep-15
dec-15
mar-16
jun-16
10-10-22
10-09-30
10-10-29
=
Silver(COMEX, $/ozt)
21,50
22,00
22,50
23,00
23,50
24,00
24,50
25,00
25,50
dec-10
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
mar-15
jun-15
10-10-2210-09-30
10-10-29
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=
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8/8/2019 SEB report: commodities stable until year end
14/20
SEB Commodity Research
NP
AGRICULTURE=
^~= = ~= = ~~== = = Er_p= _= `j`f== = = = RPKSBFI= ~= = ~== = i~= k~J~= ~=
~= ~= = =K= eI= = ~= ~= =J= = = ~= ~==~=~K=t===~=~~===~=~===~==~~=~= == =~=~=~=~~=~K=q=~== = ~=~= = = ~=~= = i~= k~= = = ~=====K==`I=~=~=~=~~==l=
====E=HNTKQBI=~=HSKQB= ~= ~= HNMKUBFK= j= ~== ~= = = = = = =t= ^~= p= ~= a~=b~=Et^pabF===rp=a~==^= Erpa^F= ~=r~== =====~==~=~=nQJNMK=e=~====i~=k~=~= ~~= ~= = ~~=~==lK==
`
=
=`= = = QSSJRUOL= = lI====NTKQB==~=RUOLK=q== = = ~~~= ~== =K= p~= = == ~= ~= = K= f= =l=t^pabI=~= = = ~= = SKQO= ==~=UNVKSR=K=v~====== PKOM=== ~= NPOKPS= = ===~===~=~K=l=l=OQI==UPB===rp==~=~=EK=R=~K= QVBFK= q= rp= b~= m=^= Ebm F=~= = ~=bNR== ~===OMMT=EOMB===~=rp=~=FK=^== = ~= = ~= OMMN= E~=~~= QMB= = = ~= F= = = =kK=eI= ~=bNR= = ~~=I===~====~=~= ~= = = ~K= q~~I== ==== = =~==rp===~==== ~= = = ~= = ~I== ~K= q~= ~~=ENMNMOUFW=`===~=~=K=q===~=I=~==~===~===
ONJ~== ~~I== RQTLI= ====~=~~==K=
t~
==t~= = = SQTJTNVL= = lI== = = SKQB= = ~= TNTLK=p~= = = ~= = ~=~=K= f= =l=t^pabI= ~=~==~==NKRT===~=SQNKQQ=K=v~== =====~==~~=PKNP==~=NTQKSS=== = ~=K=l=l=OQI== QSB= = = rp= = ~= = ~=~= = = = = EK= SOB= ~=~FK= f= = = o~= ~== = = = ~= ~=~= ~= = ~= = ~== ~= = ~= = ~= = ~= ~=
= OMNNI= = = =K= q=~=~=~====~== = = ~= rp= =K=tI=== = ~==== =q= ~= p~X= = =~= = = = _~= p~= = =~= ~= = K= q~=~~= ENMNMOUFW= m= ~= = = =SQRJTRTL= ~= = ~= ~= = == PJ= ~~= I= = ~= == ~= = = = = K= eI===SRRL==~==K=
=p~
==p~= = = NMSQJNOPSL= =lI= = = = NMKUB= = ~=NOPSLK= p~= = ~= ~= == K= f= = l= t^pabI= ~=~==~==MKPT===~= ORRKOS=K= v~= = I= I= == = OKNV= = = SNKQO= = = = ~==~J==~=~K=l=l=OQI== VNB== =rp= = ~== ~=
ER= ~K= TOBFK= a= p= ^~= ~=I= = = ~= =^~=~=~=~==~==K= t= ^~= ~= = = =I=~==~=~~== ~= = = = = i~=k~=I===~~==== K= q~= ~~= ENMNMOUFW=p~=~~======== ~= = ENOQNL= = NOVNLFK=m= = =ONJ~== ~~I==NNTMLI= ~= = = = ~= = =~~= ~= = = = PJ= ~~=
I= ~= ~= NNNMLI= = =~~==~=K=
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8/8/2019 SEB report: commodities stable until year end
15/20
NQ
=
CORN=
Corn price(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)=
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Corn ending stocks(USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
mt
days of supply
==
WHEAT=
Wheat price(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)=
200300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Wheat ending stocks(USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
mt
days of supply
=
SOYBEANS=
Soybean price(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)=
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Soybean ending stocks(USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
20
40
60
80
100
120
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
mt
days of supply
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~I=rpa =
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8/8/2019 SEB report: commodities stable until year end
16/20
NR
=
SUGAR COFFEE=
Sugar price(NYBOT, /lb, front month, weekly closing)=
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Coffee price (Arabica)(NYBOT, /lb, front month, weekly closing)=
40
60
80
100
120
140
160180
200
220
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
==
=FUTURES CURVES=
Corn(CBOT, /bu)=
460470480490500510520530540550560570580590600610
dec-10
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
10-10-22
10-09-30
10-10-29
=
Wheat(CBOT, /bu)=
670680
690700710720730740750760770780790800810820830840
dec-10
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
10-10-22
10-09-30
10-10-29
==
Soybeans(CBOT, /bu)=
1030
1050
1070
1090
1110
1130
1150
1170
1190
1210
1230
1250
nov-10
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
feb-13
maj-13
aug-13
nov-13
10-10-22
10-09-30
10-10-29
=
Sugar(CBOT, /lb)=
15161718192021
222324252627282930
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
10-10-22
10-09-30
10-10-29
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~I=rpa =
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8/8/2019 SEB report: commodities stable until year end
17/20
NS
=
COMMODITY RELATED ECONOMIC INDICATORS==
EUROZONE Current Date Previous Date Next
Industrial production (%, YoY) 8,1 2010-08-31 7,1 2010-07-31 2010-11-12
Industrial production (%, MoM) 1,1 2010-08-31 0,1 2010-07-31 2010-11-12
Capacity utilization (%, sa) 77,6 2010-12-31 77,2 2010-09-30 N/A
Manufacturing PMI 54,1 2010-10-31 53,7 2010-09-30 2010-11-02Real GDP (%, YoY) 1,9 2010-06-30 0,8 2010-03-31 2010-11-12
Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 1,0 2010-06-30 0,3 2010-03-31 2010-11-12
CPI (%, YoY) 1,8 2010-09-30 1,6 2010-08-31 2010-11-16
CPI (%, MoM) 0,2 2010-09-30 0,2 2010-08-31 2010-11-16
Consumer confidence -11,0 2010-10-31 -11,0 2010-09-30 2010-11-22
USA
Industrial production (%, YoY) 5,4 2010-09-30 6,4 2010-08-31 N/A
Industrial production (%, MoM) -0,2 2010-09-30 0,2 2010-08-31 2010-11-16
Capacity utilization (%) 74,7 2010-09-30 74,8 2010-08-31 2010-11-16
Manufacturing PMI 56,9 2010-10-31 54,4 2010-09-30 2010-11-01
Real GDP (%, YoY) 3,1 2010-09-30 3,0 2010-06-30 N/A
Real GDP (%, QoQ, saar) 2,0 2010-09-30 1,7 2010-06-30 2010-11-23
CPI (%, MoM) 1,1 2010-09-30 1,1 2010-08-31 2010-11-17
CPI (%, MoM, sa) 0,1 2010-09-30 0,3 2010-08-31 2010-11-17
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 102,3 2010-08-31 102,4 2010-07-31 N/A
Consumer confidence (Michigan) 67,7 2010-10-31 68,2 2010-09-30 2010-11-12
Nonfarm payrolls (net change, sa, 000) -95 2010-09-30 -57 2010-08-31 2010-11-05
JAPAN
Industrial production (%, YoY, nsa) 11,1 2010-09-30 15,1 2010-08-31 2010-11-15
Industrial production (%, MoM, sa) -1,9 2010-09-30 -0,5 2010-08-31 2010-11-15
Capacity utilization (%, sa) 88,3 2010-08-31 89,1 2010-07-31 N/A
Manufacturing PMI 47,2 2010-10-31 49,5 2010-09-30 2010-11-29
Real GDP (%, YoY, nsa) 2,4 2010-06-30 4,7 2010-03-31 N/A
Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 0,4 2010-06-30 1,2 2010-03-31 2010-11-14
CPI (%, YoY) 0,3 2010-10-31 -0,6 2010-09-30 2010-11-25
CPI (%, MoM) 0,3 2010-09-30 0,3 2010-08-31 N/A
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 103,3 2010-08-31 103,0 2010-07-31 N/A
Consumer confidence 41,4 2010-09-30 42,5 2010-08-31 2010-11-10
CHINAIndustrial production (%, YoY) 13,3 2010-09-30 13,9 2010-08-31 2010-11-11
Manufacturing PMI 54,7 2010-10-31 53,8 2010-09-30 2010-11-01
Real GDP (%, YoY) 9,6 2010-09-30 10,3 2010-06-30 N/A
CPI (%, YoY) 3,6 2010-09-30 3,5 2010-08-31 2010-11-11
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 101,3 2010-08-31 101,7 2010-07-31 N/A
Consumer confidence 104,4 2010-09-30 107,3 2010-08-31 N/A
Bank lending (%, YoY) 18,6 2010-08-31 18,4 2010-07-31 N/A
Fixed asset investment (%, YoY) 24,0 2010-09-30 25,0 2010-06-30 N/A
OTHER
OECD Area Comp. Leading Indicator 102,9 2010-08-31 103,0 2010-07-31 N/A
Global manufacturing PMI 52,5 2010-09-30 53,7 2010-08-31 N/ASource: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research=
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8/8/2019 SEB report: commodities stable until year end
18/20
NT
=PERFORMANCE==
Closing YTD(%)
1 m(%)
1 q(%)
1 y(%)
5 y(%)
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (TR) 1240,91 5,5 4,4 11,0 14,8 55,3UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (ER) 1168,12 5,4 4,4 10,9 14,7 37,9UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (PI) 1474,12 8,8 4,7 12,2 19,8 84,7UBS B. CMCI Energy Index (PI) 1299,28 -4,2 0,7 1,2 1,5 17,0
UBS B. CMCI Industrial Metals Index (PI) 1174,18 4,9 1,5 10,0 21,5 93,1UBS B. CMCI Precious Metals Index (PI) 2013,72 23,3 4,7 17,3 32,6 192,9UBS B. CMCI Agriculture Index (PI) 1809,68 23,8 13,7 28,7 36,9 139,3Baltic Dry Index 2678,00 -14,7 9,5 36,1 -13,7 -14,0
Crude Oil (NYMEX, WTI, $/b) 81,43 -0,1 1,8 3,1 5,8 36,3Crude Oil (ICE, Brent, $/b) 83,15 3,8 1,0 6,4 10,6 43,1Aluminum (LME, $/t) 2323,00 3,8 -0,3 7,1 23,5 16,4Copper (LME, $/t) 8191,25 9,6 2,3 12,5 26,7 101,3Nickel (LME, $/t) 22933,00 21,1 -2,1 8,7 25,9 91,6Zinc (LME, $/t) 2400,75 -5,7 10,5 19,8 12,3 56,3Steel (LME, Mediterranean, $/t) 495,00 21,5 12,1 0,5 39,0 N/AGold (COMEX, $/ozt) 1357,60 21,4 3,8 14,9 30,5 190,8Corn (CBOT, /bu) 582,00 39,1 17,4 48,2 59,0 196,6
Wheat (CBOT, /bu) 717,25 28,6 6,4 8,4 45,1 126,3Soybeans (CBOT, /bu) 1226,00 16,8 10,8 16,5 25,4 117,1
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
=
MAJOR UPCOMMING COMMODITY EVENTS==
Date Source
Department of Energy, US inventory data Wednesdays, 16:30 CET www.eia.doe.gov
American Petroleum Institute, US inventory data Tuesdays, 22:30 CET www.api.org
CFTC, Commitment of Traders Fridays, 21:30 CET www.cftc.gov
US Department of Agriculture, Crop Progress Mondays, 22.00 CET www.usda.gov
International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report November 12 www.oilmarketreport.com
OPEC, Oil Market Report November 11 www.opec.org
Department of Energy, Short Term Energy Outlook November 8 www.eia.doe.gov
US Department of Agriculture, WASDE November 9 www.usda.gov
International Grains Council, Grain Market Report November 25 www.igc.org.uk
OPEC extraordinary meeting, Quito, Ecuador December 11 www.opec.org
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
=
CONTACT LIST==
COMMODITIES Position E-mail Phone Mobile
Terje Anderson Global Head ofCommodities
[email protected] +47 22 82 71 03 +47 92 61 26 76
RESEARCH
Bjarne Schieldrop Chief analyst [email protected] +47 22 82 72 53 +47 92 48 92 30
Filip Petersson Strategist [email protected] +46 8 506 230 47 +46 70 996 08 84
CORP. SALESMats Forsell Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 230 14 +46 70 496 20 82
Charlotte Aleblad Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 233 91 +46 76 037 91 10
Katarina Johnsson Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 233 95 +46 73 501 52 02
Maximilian Brodin Sales [email protected] +47 22 82 71 62 +47 92 45 67 27
INST. SALESArne Boberg Head of inst. sales [email protected] +46 8 506 230 50 +46 70 699 99 67
Karin Almgren Broker [email protected] +46 8 506 230 51 +46 73 642 31 76
Christian Ekstrand Quantitative analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 230 40 +46 70 763 91 95
Andreas Hansson Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 232 30 +46 70 772 30 64
TRADING
Mats Hedberg Trader [email protected] +46 8 506 230 15 +46 70 462 29 78
Stephan Roelly Trader [email protected] +46 8 506 230 64 +46 73 517 77 39=
TECH. ANALYSIS Position E-mail Phone Mobile
Anders Sderberg Chief tech. analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 230 21 +46 70 772 302 1Dag Mller Tech. analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 231 29 +46 70 772 312 9
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8/8/2019 SEB report: commodities stable until year end
19/20
NU
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8/8/2019 SEB report: commodities stable until year end
20/20
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