Commodities Monthly: Bullish market disguised in bearish corrections
SEB Commodities Monthly April 2010
Transcript of SEB Commodities Monthly April 2010
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April 9, 2010
Commodity Research: Bjarne Schieldrop (Head) [email protected] +47 92 48 92 30, Filip [email protected] +46 8 506 230 47
Commodities Monthly
Nickel higher on demand Gold steady on fear=
General Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M The UBS Bloomberg CMCI Price Index advanced a marginal
0.2% in March, but differences between sectors were large Industrial metals was the strongest sector (+8.8%) and
agriculturals the weakest (-9.2%)
The global economic recovery continued, supporting demand forcommodities A potential Chinese monetary tightening is an overhanging threat
to the commodity market
Energy Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M Brent crude traded around $80/b in March, i.e. in the upper part of
OPECs desired $70-80/b range Brent crude broke above $85/b in early April, OPEC production
likely to be increased if this price level is maintained The 156:th ordinary OPEC meeting was concluded without quota
changes or other surprises There is a temporary upside risk in the oil market heading into the
US driving season as large quantities of crude oil are tied up in
financial dealsIndustrial Metals Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M Very bullish sector sentiment in March, falling LME stocks and
high cancelled warrants Nickel up 18.3% on strong stainless steel production The start of this years iron ore price negotiations have resulted in
doubled prices and quarterly contracts replacing yearly contracts
Precious Metals Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M Continued strength in the industrial precious metals (silver,
platinum, palladium) on industrial recovery and investor demand In dollar terms, gold moved sideways in March, torn between
fluctuating European sovereign debt fear and dollar strength Gold closed at a new record level in euro terms at the beginning
of the April, 863.35/ozt
Jewellery demand is picking up as the first Indian weddingseason of the year starts
Agriculture Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M Corn, wheat and soybeans traded lower in March on a stream of
bearish USDA reports, good South American crop prospects andimproving Midwest planting conditions
Sugar kept falling heavily as crop prospects kept improving andbuyers awaited lower prices
Several of the soft commodities bottomed out in March andembarked on a new uptrend
Upside risk in conjunction with US planting season remains butconditions are improving
Arrows indicate the expected direction of the price change during the specific period.
N
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Sector Indices(price indices, weekly closing, January 2009 = 100)=
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
jan-09
feb-09
mar-09
apr-09
maj-09
jun-09
jul-09
aug-09
sep-09
okt-09
nov-09
dec-09
jan-10
feb-10
mar-10
apr-10
Industrial Metals
Precious Metals
Energy
Agriculture
Performance overview(MSCI World, UBS Bloomberg CMCI Price Indices)
-16-14-12-10
-8-6-4-20246
810
Equities
Commodities
Energy
Industrial
metals
Precious
metals
Agriculture
YTD (%) MoM (%)
Winners & Losers last month(closing prices, %)=
-35-30-25-20-15-10-505
10152025
30
Sugar
Power,Nordic
USNaturalGas
Wheat
Corn
Cotton
EmissionRights(EUA)
Soybeans
Lead
Gold
Cocoa
Power,Continental
WTI
Coffe,
Arabica
Silver
Platinum
Brent
USHeatingOil
Tin
Zinc
Copper
Aluminium
Palladium
USGasoline
Nickel
Steel,Mediterranean
c
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ENERGY==
_= = = SKNB= = ~= AUOKTML=~= ~= ~= ~= AUML= = j~K=m= = = = = =~I= = rp= = ~I=
~= ~= I= ~= == ^~= ~= ~= ~= ~=~==d==~=~=~=K=f=~I===~=~=== ~= ~= = = =~=~=~=~===K==l= j~= NT= = NRSW= ~= lmb`== ~= = = s~K= ^= I==~===~===~~=~=~== == =
= = ~= = = = = =~K=`~= =~== =~= ~= = RSB= = c~K= eI= =~~= O= L= = = =~= = = = ~= =~~= ~= ~= = =~~K=q= ~~= = = == = = ~= = ~=~= = NMeOK= f= ~I= lmb = ~= ~=~= ~= ~~= = S= LK=t========~I== p~= ^~~= = = ~= ~= =
= == ATMJUML=~= ~= = ~== = = = ~= = =~=~=K= f~=~= ~=~==~=AURL=~===~==~==~K=t=~===~= =ATMJUML=~= = ~~= ===~===~=~=~K==q=f~~=b=^=Efb^F==~= = = ~= TM= L= = == OMMV= E= URKM= LF= ~= OMNM= E= USKS=LF===~=l=j~=o=EljoFK=q= = ~= = = = Jlb`a=~K=q===~==~I== rp= a~= = b= EalbF= ~=lmb`I= ~= = = OMNM= ~=~= = =OTM=L= E= URKRN=LF=~=NMM=L=E=URKOQ=LF=K=q=fb^= = = MKV= L= = =c~= E= USKS= LFI= = lmb`== = ~= NQ= = K= lb`a===~==PQKQ===g~~=E= OTMP= F= ~= ~~= = = ~=~= ~= = ~= K= p= = = ===~=~=~==
=~==OMNMI=~=~=~==~I=KK=====~====
===~I====~=~=~======~K=p==~=== ~= ~= = RO= = ~= = = =c~= K= RV= = ~= = ~K=`== ~= = NO== =TQ====~=K==rp= = = = = = NOKT= = =j~=====~===~K=d~====TKN==~=~= = TKO= I= = = ~~=~K= o= ~= == ~~=~~= K= q= ~= ===~=~====~=I=KK=~==~==~=~==~==K=
=q=~=~===~=~= = = = j= ~==~=~===~K=o~====~========~===K=q=f~~=~=k~==~===~K==_= =~== = =~= ~=AUMLK= f= = = ~= ~= ~=~= I= ~= ~= = = == = = = ~= ~=
==~=K= =~====~~=EfpjI=kcmF===rp=~==== ^=~~= == _= ~=AURL====~==~=~=~==rp=K==i=====~===~==== ~= = K= l= =I==~~===~=~~=~=====~= ~=~= ==K=l==~==`~===K=p~===~==
= = K= b~= == ~= = ~= ~= K= l=~= ~= = ~= _= = = == = = = ~= ~= = ATMJUML= = ~= = ~= ~~= = =ATRL= = OMNMK= eI= = = ~=~= = = = = == ~== = = ~I==~=~=====~I=~=== ~= = K= p= ~== = = = ~= = = = ~~=~= = = ~= ~= ~= ~= = ~=~= = = ~~= = ~= =~~= = = = ~= ~~= = =K= o= ~=~= = ~=
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=~~~==~===^~=~===~= ~= = ===~=ANMML=~K==q== == =rp=~~=~= == = == =j~I= = =
= = = = ~= OMB= K=f~= = = = ~= ~== = ~= = =~I==~=~==~=~~==~=~=====~==~=~=~==~===~~=~K=`==~==~===rp=~=~=I====~== ~= = = = = = ~= ===K=q=~~=~==~====~===~==K=
=q~=~~= E^=TFW=q== ~=~= ~= = = K= q= = =~=AUUJVMLK==c
==
q=_~=a=f=~==~=PMB==~=~===PRTQ====~==j~=~= ~= = = ^~~= = = = `~=I=~=~==~==`=k=v~=~K=a=j~I====
= ~= = ~= = = P=~= = = = Es~I= _em= ~= o=qF= ~= = ~= ~= E=~= = `~FK= ^= = ~=~==~===~===~=~= ~==^=NI=`==~= == ~= = =~= =====~K=^========~===~=~===VKRBI==~=OVVUK===
Freight Indices(BFX, weekly closing, January 2002 = 100)=
0100200300400500600700800900
100011001200130014001500
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450500
Baltic Dry Index (left axis)
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (right axis)
Baltic Clean Tanker Index (right axis)
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~==
q=~=~=~===~=~=~==~===== j~K= eI= = _~= a= q~=f= ~~= = ~~= RKUBI= = ==~=VSQ===~=~===TKNB=~==~=TMUK=
=k=m
==
^======E=c~==j~FI= ~~= = =k=m=j~= = ~= ~K= q= ~=~= ~= = = = = ~=~= = ~= = K=p~I=p=~==~=~= ~= = = =K=j= ~~~== ~~= ~= = =~= = = = = = ~=
= = ~= = j~I= ====~~=bro=QMLjtK=`=URB===~=p=~=~~===~=K=^=~=I==~=== ~~=~=~== p= = ~~= = = = == = = j~K= p= = = j~=~~= bro= RTKMOLjt= E= bro=NNKVMLjt= K= c~FK= q= p= =~~= ~~= bro= RVKMQLjt= E= bro=PQKVRLjt=K=c~FK==
q= ~= = = = ~=~=~= = = = ~= = ~==j~K=t=~= = ==~~==~=NM=qt====== ~= = ~= I= = ~= OU=qtK= f= ~= = ~= k=~~I= ~= ~I= ~= ~= d~== = ~= = = k= == = j~K= j~~= = = ===~===bro=OLjtK=^== = = = j~I= nOJNM= ~= ~= bro=QNKTRLjt= E= bro= NPKURLjt= LF=~= `~JNN= ~= bro= PVKOMLjt= E= bro=OKVMLjt= LFK= q~= = ~=~=~===K==a===~==^I==~==~= ~= ==K=d= == = = = = ~~= = == = ~= = = = =~=~=======~=== bro= QRLjtK= q= = = ~=====~==~============~=~===K=
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=
System and Swedish spot prices(Nord Pool, weekly average)=
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
2009-W01
2009-W06
2009-W11
2009-W16
2009-W21
2009-W26
2009-W31
2009-W36
2009-W41
2009-W46
2009-W51
2010-W03
2010-W08
2010-W13
System price
Swedish price
`~=W=k=mI=pb_=`=o~==
`lO
==
a= j~I= = = ~= b~== ~I= br^= a= OMNMI= ~==NOKRVL=~=NPKSML=~==NKPB== L= ~= ANOKUPLK= ^= ~= ~= =b~==~~==OMMV===br=b=q~=p=~=~==^=NK=q=~~==~=L=====NNB====K=q=~=~=== = = ~= ~= ~~= = =~= ~= = = ~= ~~= ~=~K=eI==~==~I=~=
=~====~K=^=== ~= = = ~I== ~= = ~= ~= = =~= = ~~I= = = ~= d~== ~= EOMNNF= ~= QKSB= = == = ^K= q= br^= aJNM= == = ~I=~= RKNB=~= ~= ~=NPKRL= =~=^I= ====~===c~=ENQKMQLFK=p=b=== = = ~= = == = = ~= = = I= ====rp===~K==f==rp====~====~== ~= = = = == = = ~= = = ~=K= i~= g~I= ~= = = rp=b~=m=^=Ebm^FI=== = = = ~= ~= ~===~=`lO====~=~==~=K=p=~=== = = ~= = =~= ~= = = ~= = ==K=e=~======~= ~= = = = =
= = ~= = l~~= = K= q== ~= = ~= == = =
~= ~= = ~= = = ~= ~= =~= ~= ~== bm K= ^= ~I= =~= = bm^= ~= = ~=~= = = ~= ~= = = rp=p=`====K===
q= t= = ~= = = ~= =~= ~= = = == ~=~~==~K=l~~==~= = = = t~= PN= j~=~= ~= = ~= = ~= ~=~= = = = = ~= ~= = =^~= ~= ^~~= ~= K= q=~= ~= ~= = ^= ^=c= _~I= = = ~~= == ~K= q= = = ~== = ~= = ~I= ~== ~= = = ~K=^== rp=
=~======== ^= OOI= = = = = = ~== = = = = =~K==t==b~====== ~~= ~= = OMOMI= ~= =b~= = = = = =~===~=~===rpI=====~=~===br^===K=
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CRUDE OIL=
Crude oil price(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)=
102030405060708090
100110120130
140150
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
NYMEX WTI
ICE Brent
=
US crude oil stocks(DOE, mb, weekly data)=
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
j f m a m j j a s o n d
2005-2009 avg.
2009
2010
OIL PRODUCTS=Gasoline and heating oil prices(NYMEX, /gal, front month, weekly closing)=
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
NYMEX Gasoline
NYMEX Heating oil
=
Gasoline and distillate stocks(DOE, mb, weekly data)=
110
120
130140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
j f m a m j j a s o n d
Gasoline 2005-2009 avg.
Gasoline 2010
Distillate fuel oil 2004-2008 avg.
Distillate fuel oil 2010
=
POWER=
Nordic power price(Nord Pool, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)=
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Continental power price(EEX, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)=
20253035404550556065707580859095
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=
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CO2 NATURAL GAS=
EUA price(ECX ICE, /t, Dec. 10, weekly closing)
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
US natural gas prices(NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)=
0123456789
101112
131415
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
==
FUTURES CURVES=WTI(NYMEX, $/b)=
7980
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
maj-10
aug-10
nov-10
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
feb-13
maj-13
aug-13
nov-13
feb-14
maj-14
10-02-26
10-03-24
10-03-31
=
Brent(ICE, $/b)=
7778
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
maj-10
aug-10
nov-10
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
feb-13
maj-13
aug-13
nov-13
feb-14
maj-14
10-02-26
10-03-24
10-03-31
=
Gasoline(NYMEX, /gal)=
200
205
210
215
220
225
230
235
240
maj-10
aug-10
nov-10
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
feb-13
10-02-26
10-03-24
10-03-31
=
US natural gas(NYMEX, $/MMBtu)=
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
6,5
7,0
7,5
maj-10
sep-10
jan-11
maj-11
sep-11
jan-12
maj-12
sep-12
jan-13
maj-13
sep-13
jan-14
maj-14
sep-14
jan-15
maj-15
sep-15
jan-16
maj-16
sep-16
10-02-26
10-03-24
10-03-31
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=
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=INDUSTRIAL METALS==
^=
q= ~= ~= ~= ~= ~= == =j~I= =r_p= _= `j f======UKUB==~=~==OM==K=q=~===~=~=
= EHNUKPBFI= = = ~=EHVKNBFI== EHUKPBFI==EHUKOBF=~==EHTKUBFK= q= = ~= = ~= = ~=~= EJNKMBFK= p= = ~= == ~= ijb= = ~= ~= = ~== = ~= ~= ~~=~=K=
=
^= = = rpa= ONPMJOOVVL== j~I= = = = = ~= rpa=OOVVLK= ijb= = = = =~= ~I= = = ~= = =g=~=~I==~=~~=~=~=~===ESKNB==ijb====~= ~= =j~FK= q= ~= ~= == = = = = ~= =~= = KK= ~= = ~= K=_= ~= = ~= = =====K=eI=~=~== = ~= = = ~=K= q~= ~~= E^= TFW=^= ~= = = = =
= ~= = = I= = ======rpa=OQMML=K=
=`= = = = = = == = ~= = = ~=~===~===~K=eI==~== = =~= ~==~=
==~======~~K=q= ~=~= ==== ~==~=`==~=K=p~=~== ~= I= KK= = f~= =~I= = = ~= = ~= ~=~==fjc===~=K=q==~=~=====~K=
=
`=
=
`= = = rpa= TOUUJTUOSL= =j~I= = = = = ~= rpa=TTSULK= ijb= = ~= = ~= = == = j~= ~= ~= = = ~= ~== E= TB= = j~FK= `~=~~= ~= = = ~= ~= = ~=~=~~=EPKSB==ijb====~=
~==j~FK=q==~==== = ~= = = ~= =~= K= l= = = ~I= =`= ~= ~= ~= = ~= == = = = ~= == = OMNMK= eI= = == = ~= ~= ~= = =OMNMK=`~===~====~~===~~===KK===~=~=~=~~= ~= ~= ~K= q~=~~= E^= TFW= `= ~= = =
=~====TUKSB=c=~==~==~==~~=OMMU=K=
=q= ~= = = = = ~=~=~==~=====~= VMB= = ~= ~= = = =
= = ~= ~= ~= ~=~= ~= = ~K= s~= ~~= =~= = VTB= = = ~= = = == ~= = ~= = = ~= == = ~= = = = ~= =ARTL==ANOOKOL==NMnOK=q=~===~= = = = QM= ~= = ~~=~= = ~= = ~= K=`=~=~=~=====~= ~= ~= = = = = ====~=~=====~==~=~K==^= = = = = ~= = == = = ~= = = =~= = = ~~= = K= c~== ~= = ~= ~~= == ~= = = ~= == = ~= ~K= j= ~=~===~=====~= = = = K= t= = =~=~==~=~==~=~== = = ~= = ~=~= ~K= f= = ~= =====~K=
=
k=
=
k= = = rpa= ONOSPJOQVTOL= =j~I= = = = = ~= rpa=OQVTOLK= ijb= = ~= = = ~======c~=E=QB= = j~F= ~= ~= ~~= ~==EOKTB==ijb====~=~==j~FK=k=~=~===== ~= = = = ~= == =~== = = == ==~K= f= ~= ~= = = K=
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k= = = = EkmfF= ~~= == = = ~= = ~= =~= = = = K=q~=~~= E^=TFW=k= == ~= =~==~======== c= K= m= ~=rpa= ORNTRL= =
===rpa=PMPMMLK==
w=
=
w= = = rpa= ONVMJOPSNL= =j~I= = = = = ~= rpa=OPROLK= ijb= = ~= ~== j~= = ~= ~~= ~== = ~= = = = EOKTB= = ijb====~=~==j~FK=q==~====K=a~==~=~= = = I= KK= ~= `=
= ~= ~= = ~= =~K=q=~=======~===~==~~~=== = ~= = ~K= q~=~~=E^=TFW=q=~=g~~===~====~=~====~=~=~~=====RMB=c=~=rpa=OUORLK==
p=
=
ijb=j~~====rpa=
QQSJRVPL==j~I=====~=rpa= RTPLK= ijb= = = = OMB= =j~K= ijb=c~= b~=~= ~= = =I= = = = ~~= = == = = = ijb= ~= = g= OUK=d~= ~= = = = = ===~==OMMVK=eI==MVeO= = ~= = = = ~=~= ~K= f= c~I= ~= == ~= = = OQB= L= = = = UMB=~~=~K=m=~=~==~=~~K=o=~===~=====~=K==
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ALUMINIUM=
Aluminium price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
2500
2750
3000
3250
3500
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Aluminium stocks(LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SHFE
COMEX
LME
==
COPPER=Copper price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Copper stocks(LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SHFE
COMEX
LME
NICKEL=
Nickel price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Nickel stocks(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
===
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ZINC=
Zinc price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Zinc stocks(LME/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SHFE
LME
=
LEAD=Lead price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Lead stocks(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
25000
50000
75000
100000
125000
150000
175000
200000
225000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
TIN=
Tin price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
18000
21000
24000
27000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Tin stocks(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=
NM
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STEEL=
Steel price(LME Mediterranean, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
jan-09
mar-09
maj-09
jul-09
sep-09
nov-09
jan-10
mar-10
=
Steel stocks(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
4000045000
50000
55000
jul-08
sep-08
nov-08
jan-09
mar-09
maj-09
jul-09
sep-09
nov-09
jan-10
mar-10
=
FUTURES CURVES=
Aluminium(LME, $/t)=
205021002150
2200225023002350240024502500255026002650
apr-10
jul-10
okt-10
jan-11
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14
10-02-26
10-03-24
10-03-31
=
Copper(LME, $/t)=
6900
7000
7100
7200
7300
7400
7500
7600
7700
7800
7900
apr-10
jul-10
okt-10
jan-11
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14
10-02-26
10-03-24
10-03-31
==
Nickel(LME, $/t)=
19500200002050021000215002200022500
2300023500240002450025000
apr-10
jul-10
okt-10
jan-11
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14
10-02-26
10-03-24
10-03-31
=
Zinc(LME, $/t)=
2150
2200
2250
2300
2350
2400
2450
apr-10
jul-10
okt-10
jan-11
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14
10-02-26
10-03-24
10-03-31
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~
NN
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=PRECIOUS METALS==
m= ~= ~= ~= = == ~= =j~=~= I= ~~=~= ~= ~= ~= ~= ~== = = ~= = = K= q=
= = ~= ~~= EHNNKMBF==~=~==~=~=~=~= EHSKRB= ~= HSKOB= FK= dI====~I==MKRBK=q=~=== = = ~= ~= = b~====~=~=d===~~K=q= =~== === = ~= = ~= ~=~=~K=d== ~= ~= = ===b======^I=USPKPRLK==
f~= = ~= ~~= ====~~= ~==~= ~K=a~== = = ~= = = j~= ~= = ~====f~==~===~K= d= bqc= ~= = ~= ~=~~I= KK= = pmao= = = =~=~==~==ENNPM=FK=
NO
=^= = ~= = = = = t=d=`=Etd`FI=`==~=== === = =~= =~= = ~= = ~K=
p= = = = = = = == ~= = = = ~= = ~==~=K=q=td`=~==~==~= = = ~= =~=~= = NVSQ= = = ~=~= = = ~= ~= ~= ~= =====~==OMMVI=~==~=== = = ~= = OMNM= = =~= ===K==d=~= = = = = = ~==~==~=====~=~=======ANNMMLK=^= = ~= = = = ~=
= = = = = = ~~I= = === = ~I= = = = === = ~= K= _= = = == ANNMML= ~~= = = ~= = ===~K==m~~=~=~==~~== ~== bqc= = = = = K=q= ~= = ~= ~= == = = = = ~=~= ~I= KK= = = ~~== = = ~= K= m~~= =
=~======= = =~= ~~= = ~==
I== = = = = ==rp=~= `~K= t= = ~= = = =~= ~= ~~= = = ======p=^~=Eg=NN==g=NN==~FK=q====== ~~= ~= == =~=~====~===~= = K= ^= ~= = ======~==b=~= = ~= ~= = = = ~== ~= ~= ~= = = ~=~=~I== ==~~=~=~=K=m=~=~=== == = ~~=~=~~K=p=^~==~====== ~= ~= ~= ~= = =
~~K==q~=~~I==E^=TFW=d==== ~= = ~= ~= = ~====OMMV=K=q============~=~=rpa=NNSNLK==
Gold and selected currencies vs. USD
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
GOLD EUR JPY GBP SEK RUB
YTD (%) MoM (%)
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~==
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GOLD=
Gold price(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Gold to oil & gold to LME Index ratios(front month, weekly closing)=
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7Gold to oil ratio (left axis)
Gold to LME Index ratio (right axis)
=
SILVER PLATINUM / PALLADIUM=
Silver price(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=
2
46
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Platinum and palladium prices(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=
100
300
500
700
900
1100
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
300
550
800
1050
1300
1550
1800
2050
2300
Palladium (left axis)
Platinum (right axis)
==
FUTURES CURVES=
Gold(COMEX, $/ozt)=
1075
1100
1125
1150
1175
1200
1225
1250
1275
apr-10
jul-10
okt-10
jan-11
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14
jul-14
okt-14
10-02-26
10-03-24
10-03-31
=
Silver(COMEX, $/ozt)
16,25
16,50
16,75
17,00
17,25
17,50
17,75
18,00
18,25
maj-10
aug-10
nov-10
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
feb-13
maj-13
aug-13
nov-13
feb-14
maj-14
aug-14
nov-14
10-02-26
10-03-24
10-03-31
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=
NP
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AGRICULTURE=
q=~====~~===j~=~=~=K=l==~=I==~=~====EJNNB=~=JNPB=F==~=~=~=~=
= = EJOBFK= d= p= ^~== = = = ~= ~= ~== ~= = = rp= j=K= _~= rp= = ~=~=~=~===~=~~=~==~=====K=f===~== =~=~== = = I= ~= ~= ~===~===K==q= ~= rpa = m=m~= =~=~==~=j~K=q===~==
~= = ~= USMMM= rp= ~=~~= = = = = = =j~= = =~= = = = ~K=q= = =~= = ~= ~~=EHNB=K=OMMVFI===~==~~== NVQT= EHPB= K= OMMVF= ~= = ~=~= ~~= = NVTM= EJVB= K= OMMVFK= f== = = = ~=I= =rp=~= ==~= ~=~K=`~===~=~=Ej~=NFI== = ~= = = = = == = EHNNBFI= ~= = ~= ~=
= EJOBF= ~= ~= = = = ~==PMBK=q===== = = = = ~= = = ~== ~= = ~= ~= ~K= q====~===~====~==~~=rp=~=~K= `= ~= = = ^= ~=~= ~= = j~K= q= = ~= = == ==== ===~=~=~==~====~=~== = ~= ~= =~=~I====K=q= ~= = = = ~= = =
==~I====~==~= = = = K= q=====~=====~== = = ~= == = ~= ~= ~= ~= = ~== == = = ~= =K==p~== ~= ~= =~= QMB= == OV= ~= = ~= = ~K= q= ~== = = =~= = == ~= = = = _~~=
K= f~= = ~= ~= ~==~=~=~=~====
= = ~= = = ~= = =K=^==~==~===~==~= ~= ~= = ~= ~~K= _~~=~= f~= = ~= = ===~====~~K===`
==
`= = = PQRJPUSL= = j~I== = = = ~= PQRLK= f= =j~= = = = rpa^= t=^~= p= ~= a~= b~=Et^pabF= ~= = ~= ==RKUS==I=~====^~=K=b===~== = = SKNN= I= ~= ~= ~=
====~K=b====~====~=~==== == =~= ~= == ~~= rp= ~I= ~=~==~=~====rp=~== ~= ~= ~= ~K= q~= ~~=E^=TFW=`=~==~==~=~=== == ~= ~= ~= ~I=PMMJPOML===~K==
t~=
=
t~= = =QSQJROUL= =j~I== = = = ~= QSQLK= q=t^pab= = = MKRT= = K=b===~=~==MKVN=K=q=~= ~= ~= = = ===I====OO=~===rp= ~= = = = = ~= ~K= ^=~= ~= = = = ~= === = = ~= ~=K=q~=~~=E^=TFW =t~========MVnP==~=QORLK==
p~ ==
p~= = = VORJVTQL= =j~I= = = = = ~= VQNLK=p~==~==MKUV=====t^pabI======= MKVQ=K=o=^~= ~= _~~=~=~=K=b=~======rp==p=^~K=p~== = = ^~= = == = ~= = = j~K= q~=~~=E^=TFW=p~=~=~==~==~= = ~= ~= ~= = = = ~=K=
NQ
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=
CORN=
Corn price(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)=
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Corn ending stocks(USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
mt
days of supply
==
WHEAT=
Wheat price(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)=
200300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Wheat ending stocks(USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
mt
days of supply
SOYBEANS=
Soybean price(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)=
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Soybean ending stocks(USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
20
40
60
80
100
120
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
mt
days of supply
==
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~I=rpa^=
NR
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=
SUGAR COFFEE=
Sugar price(NYBOT, /lb, front month, weekly closing)=
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Coffee price (Arabica)(NYBOT, /lb, front month, weekly closing)=
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
==
=FUTURES CURVES=
Corn(CBOT, /bu)=
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
maj-10
aug-10
nov-10
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
10-02-26
10-03-24
10-03-31
Wheat(CBOT, /bu)=
450
500
550
600
650
700
maj-10
aug-10
nov-10
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
10-02-26
10-03-24
10-03-31
=
Soybeans(CBOT, /bu)=
910
920
930
940
950
960
970
980
maj-10
aug-10
nov-10
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
10-02-26
10-03-24
10-03-31
=
Sugar(CBOT, /lb)=
15
17
19
21
23
25
maj-10
aug-10
nov-10
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
10-02-26
10-03-24
10-03-31
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~I=rpa^=
NS
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=
COMMODITY RELATED ECONOMIC INDICATORS==
Current Date Previous Date NextEUROZONE
Industrial production (%, YoY) 1,0 2010-01-31 -4,0 2009-12-31 2010-04-14
Industrial production (%, MoM) 1,5 2010-01-31 0,6 2009-12-31 2010-04-14
Capacity utilization (%, sa) 72,0 2010-03-31 71,0 2009-12-31
Manufacturing PMI 56,6 2010-03-31 54,2 2010-02-28 2010-04-21Real GDP (%, YoY) -2,1 2009-12-31 -4,1 2009-09-30 2010-04-07
Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 0,1 2009-12-31 0,4 2009-09-30 2010-04-07
CPI (%, YoY) 0,9 2010-02-28 1,0 2010-01-31 2010-04-16
CPI (%, MoM) 0,3 2010-02-28 -0,8 2010-01-31 2010-04-16
Consumer confidence -17,0 2010-03-31 -17,0 2010-02-28 2010-04-22
USA
Industrial production (%, YoY) 1,7 2010-02-28 0,8 2010-01-31
Industrial production (%, MoM) 0,1 2010-02-28 0,9 2010-01-31 2010-04-15
Capacity utilization (%) 72,7 2010-02-28 72,5 2010-01-31 2010-04-15
Manufacturing PMI 59,6 2010-03-31 56,5 2010-02-28 2010-05-03
Real GDP (%, YoY) 0,1 2009-12-31 -2,6 2009-09-30
Real GDP (%, QoQ, saar) 5,6 2009-12-31 2,2 2009-09-30 2010-04-30
CPI (%, MoM) 2,1 2010-02-28 2,6 2010-01-31 2010-04-14
CPI (%, MoM, sa) 0,0 2010-02-28 0,2 2010-01-31 2010-04-14
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 102,3 2010-01-31 101,4 2009-12-31
Consumer confidence (Michigan) 73,6 2010-03-31 73,6 2010-02-28 2010-04-16
Nonfarm payrolls (net change, sa, 000) 162 2010-03-31 -14 2010-02-28 2010-05-07
JAPAN
Industrial production (%, YoY, nsa) 31,3 2010-02-28 18,5 2010-01-31 2010-04-15
Industrial production (%, MoM, sa) -0,9 2010-02-28 2,7 2010-01-31 2010-04-15
Capacity utilization (%, sa) 87,6 2010-01-31 84,3 2009-12-31
Manufacturing PMI 52,5 2010-02-28 52,5 2010-01-31 2010-04-30
Real GDP (%, YoY, nsa) -1,0 2009-12-31 -5,2 2009-09-30
Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 0,9 2009-12-31 -0,1 2009-09-30 2010-05-20
CPI (%, YoY) -1,8 2010-03-31 -1,8 2010-02-28 2010-04-30
CPI (%, MoM) -0,1 2010-02-28 -0,2 2010-01-31
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 103,0 2010-01-31 101,7 2009-12-31
Consumer confidence 40,0 2010-02-28 39,4 2010-01-31 2010-04-19
CHINA
Industrial production (%, YoY) 12,8 2010-02-28 18,5 2009-12-31 2010-04-15
Manufacturing PMI 55,1 2010-03-31 52,0 2010-02-28 2010-05-01
Real GDP (%, YoY) 10,7 2009-12-31 9,1 2009-09-30 2010-04-15
CPI (%, YoY) 2,7 2010-02-28 1,5 2010-01-31 2010-04-15
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 103,5 2010-01-31 103,3 2009-12-31
Consumer confidence 104,2 2010-02-28 104,7 2010-01-31
Bank lending (%, YoY) 29,3 2010-01-31 31,7 2009-12-31
Fixed asset investment (%, YoY) 30,1 2009-12-31 33,4 2009-09-30
OTHER
OECD Area Comp. Leading Indicator 103,6 2010-01-31 102,8 2009-12-31
Global manufacturing PMI 56,7 2010-03-31 55,4 2010-02-28Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research=
NT
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=PERFORMANCE==
Monthlyclosing
YTD(%)
1 m(%)
1 q(%)
1 y(%)
5 y(%)
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (TR) 1111,74 -5,5 0,1 -3,6 29,2 53,9
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (ER) 1047,43 -5,5 0,1 -3,7 29,1 34,1UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (PI) 1287,10 -5,0 0,2 -3,1 38,7 75,5UBS B. CMCI Energy Index (PI) 1304,32 -3,9 1,4 -1,2 42,4 37,0
UBS B. CMCI Industrial Metals Index (PI) 1156,54 3,4 8,8 5,0 83,2 101,5UBS B. CMCI Precious Metals Index (PI) 1628,83 -0,3 0,7 2,0 23,2 156,8
UBS B. CMCI Agriculture Index (PI) 1229,68 -15,9 -9,2 -14,6 5,4 66,3Baltic Dry Index 2998,00 -4,5 9,5 N/A 85,6 -35,3
Crude Oil (NYMEX, WTI, $/b) 83,76 2,8 5,1 5,5 68,7 51,2Crude Oil (ICE, Brent, $/b) 82,70 3,2 6,6 6,1 68,0 52,3Aluminum (LME, $/t) 2299,00 2,7 9,1 4,3 69,0 15,8Copper (LME, $/t) 7767,75 3,9 8,3 5,7 93,7 127,0
Nickel (LME, $/t) 24972,00 31,9 18,3 35,2 155,5 53,8Zinc (LME, $/t) 2351,75 -7,7 8,2 -7,2 81,4 73,2Steel (LME, Far East, $/t) 595,00 41,7 33,7 48,8 77,6 N/ASteel (LME, Mediterranean, $/t) 572,50 40,5 28,5 45,5 70,4 N/AGold (COMEX, $/ozt) 1113,30 -0,4 -0,5 1,6 20,7 159,7
Corn (CBOT, /bu) 345,00 -17,6 -8,7 -16,8 -14,8 62,0Wheat (CBOT, /bu) 450,50 -19,2 -11,1 -16,8 -15,4 36,1Soybeans (CBOT, /bu) 941,00 -10,3 -1,1 -9,5 -1,2 50,0
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
=
MAJOR UPCOMMING COMMODITY EVENTS==
Date Source
Wednesdays, 16:30 CET www.eia.doe.govDepartment of Energy, US inventory data
Tuesdays, 22:30 CET www.api.orgAmerican Petroleum Institute, US inventory data
April 13 www.oilmarketreport.comInternational Energy Agency, Oil Market Report
April 14 www.opec.orgOPEC, Oil Market Report
Mondays, 22.00 CET www.usda.govUS Department of Agriculture, Crop Progress
April 9 www.usda.govUS Department of Agriculture, WASDE/WAP April 22 www.igc.org.ukInternational Grains Council, Grain Market Report
October 14 www.opec.orgOPEC ordinary meeting, Vienna, Austria
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
=
CONTACT LIST, SEB COMMODITIES==
Position E-mail Phone Mobile
Mikael Nordstrm Head of Commodities [email protected] +46 8 506 230 26 +46 70 293 00 12
RESEARCH
Bjarne Schieldrop Chief Analyst [email protected] +47 22 82 72 53 +47 92 48 92 30
Filip Petersson Commodity Strategist [email protected] +46 8 506 230 47 +46 70 996 08 84
SALES
Arne Boberg Head of Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 230 50 +46 70 699 99 67
Charlotte Aleblad Corporate Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 233 91 +46 76 037 91 10Magnus Wallenbert Corporate Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 230 24 +46 76 213 33 40
Katarina Johnsson Corporate Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 233 95 +46 73 501 52 02
TRADING
Stefan Fastesson Head of Trading [email protected] +46 8 506 230 13 +46 73 850 13 30
Mats Forsell Trader [email protected] +46 8 506 230 14 +46 70 496 20 82
Mats Hedberg Trader [email protected] +46 8 506 230 15 +46 70 462 29 78
Karin Almgren Broker [email protected] +46 8 506 230 51 +46 73 642 31 76
Christian Ekstrand Quantitative Analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 230 40 +46 70 763 91 95
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research==
NU
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=
a~=C=
`~===
=q= ~====~====pb_=j~=_~I=~===p~~~=b~=_~=^_=EF=Epb_FK===l=~======~====~=~===~==K=^=~=~====~=== = = ~= = = = = = ~K= eI= =~= = ~~I= = = I= = ~= = = = ===~~====~==~=======~=~~K=^==~=~=~==========~========~=~=====~K=q=====~=~=I=~===~=~===~=~===X======~I==~=~==~==~===~==~========K==pb_==~==~=~==pI=pI===~K=f== ~= = ~~= ~= ~= k= ~= = b~= o~= j~= ~=j~~=q~=c~=E~==~==Jb~=~=~F==~==~~=I==~=~=~==k^pa^n=ljuI=kvpb=bI=i=p=b~I=a=_I=p=b~I=q=~=
`JuK= pb_= = ~= ~= ~= = c~= = pX= = =~=~====~===c~~=p=^=== = = ~= = = = = rhI= ~= = = = == = ~= ~= = ~= = = = pb_= =~K====
pb_=j~=_~K=^==K====
============
pb_=`=j==~====q~===K=