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Transcript of SCENARIO ANALYSIS - fenix.tecnico.ulisboa.pt · António Alvarenga 1st SEMESTER, 2015 ... [...
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SCENARIO ANALYSIS(Methodological tools and a language for learning and
strategic dialogue)
António Alvarenga
1st SEMESTER, 2015/2016 DECISION SUPPORT MODELS, DEPARTMENT OF ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT
Note: These slides are just a tool supporting the lectures. Not all slides will be necessarily used.
[email protected]://pt.linkedin.com/in/antonioalvarenga
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2035MANUFACTURING
SIMULATION: GROUP PRESENTATIONS
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ppt 10 m
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2nd GROUP - CLASSES (Wednesday morning)
Working groups» “Sandra”- “Sweden”
» “Luzia”;» [ “Beatriz”];» “Inês - Rui”;
» “Rita”.
3rd GROUP - CLASSES(Wednesday afternoon)
Working groups» “Adalto”;[» “Ana”];
[» “Henrique”];» Tiago Neves.
1st GROUP - CLASSES (Monday afternoon)
Working groups» “Fábio Cavaco”;» “Luís Miguel”;
» “Gonçalo Marques”;» “Renato Carvalho”;
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TRENDS AND MEGATRENDS
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Trends Possible Impacts up2you
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[NAME OF THE TREND]
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A possibility for notation - egNotation of the impacts based on "futures wheels / impact wheels"
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Weak Signals (2) What might imply if it amplifies / Possible Impactsup2you
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Wild Cards (4) Possible Impacts up2you
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SCENARIO ANALYSISExperimentation of a crucial stage of the process:
choosing key uncertainties.
António Alvarenga
1st SEMESTER, 2015/2016 DECISION SUPPORT MODELS, DEPARTMENT OF ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT
Note: These slides are just a tool supporting the lectures. Not all slides will be necessarily used.
[email protected]://pt.linkedin.com/in/antonioalvarenga
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5. Scenario analysisW9
• Foresight, Horizon Scanning and Scenarios: origins, principles and key concepts. (T11 x2)
W10• Key concepts in action – “The future of manufacturing”. (P03)• Foresight, Horizon Scanning and Scenarios: methodological toolbox. (T12 x1; x2)
W11• Key concepts in action – “The future of manufacturing” (cont.). (P03)• Foresight, Horizon Scanning and Scenarios: methodological toolbox. (T12 x3)• The Intuitive Logics School of Scenario Building: objectives, applications and key features. (T13 x1)
W12• Experimentation of a crucial stage of the process: choosing key uncertainties. (P04)• The Intuitive Logics School of Scenario Building: objectives, applications and key features. (T13 x2)• Morphological Analysis: introduction and cases. (T14)
W13• Using Morphological Analysis to build Scenarios: hands-on application. (L05)
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2030MANUFACTURING
SIMULATION
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Task:
To identify 3 uncertainties and propose 2 configurations(“possible paths”) to each one
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Looking for Key Uncertainties
Strong Impact
LowUncertainty
Strong ImpactHigh Uncertainty
IMPACT
UNCERTAINTYContext
Elements
KeyUncertainties
Important Trends
X
X X
Criteria
Importance/Impact
Uncertainty
Independence
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Looking for Key Uncertainties
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15
20
25
30
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0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Imp
act
DRIVERS OF CHANGE
SafetySustainability
Fidelization
EnvironmentalConcerns
Products and MotivationsTerritorial Management
Health andProximity Services
VisibilityFamilyNegotiation Power Burocracy
Reintegration of the Value Chain
Uncertainty
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STRUCTURAL UNCERTAINTIES…
KEY UNCERTAINTIES:
• Importance/Relevance (strong potential impact) to the FOCUS
• High Level of Uncertainty
• Independence
» They are critical drivers for understanding the future dynamics of the focus. They have a high level of uncertainty. They are the basis for the development of Scenarios .
» The Key Uncertainties define the dynamics that must be monitored and towards which it is crucial to find answers.
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CONFIGURATIONS OF THE KEY UNCERTAINTIES
Criteria:
plausible, contrasted, challenging
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PORTUGAL: EVOLUTION OF THE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL
CONTEXT
CHINA: EVOLUTION OF THE PROCESS OF ECONOMIC AND
SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT
INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
POWER RELATIONS IN THE INDUSTRY
RELATIVE
STABILIZATION
OLIGOPOLIES
“SUNNY”
STABILIZATIONCRISIS
“CLOUDY”
GROWING
INSECURITY
EFFECTIVE
NETWORKS
EXAMPLES OF KEY UNCERTAINTIES AND
CONFIGURATIONS
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KEY UNCERTAINTY ‘A’ AND CONFIGURATIONS
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KEY UNCERTAINTY “B” AND CONFIGURATIONS
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KEY UNCERTAINTY “C” AND CONFIGURATIONS
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2030MANUFACTURING
SIMULATION
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Evidence / (deep/explicative) causes of the selected configurations
UNCERTAINTY A
UNCERTAINTY B
UNCERTAINTY CCONFIG. C’’
CONFIG. B’’
CONFIG. A’’CONFIG. A’
CONFIG. B’
CONFIG. C’
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Evidence / (deep/explicative) causes of the selected configurations
up2you
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2030MANUFACTURING
SIMULATION
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List of potential key uncertainties
Sort Potential Key Uncertainties regarding your evaluation oftheir impact on the focus:
• 0, if no impact (or almost no impact)
• 1, if weak impact
• 2, if medium impact
• 3, if strong impact
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inputLooking for Key Uncertainties
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Rate Potential Key Uncertainties regarding your evaluation oftheir level of uncertainty:
• 0, if there is no uncertainty (or very low level ofuncertainty)
• 1, if the degree of uncertainty is low
• 2, if medium degree of uncertainty
• 3, if there is strong uncertainty attached
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List of potential key uncertainties
inputLooking for Key Uncertainties
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Looking for Key Uncertainties
Strong Impact
LowUncertainty
Strong ImpactHigh Uncertainty
IMPACT
UNCERTAINTYContext
Elements
KeyUncertainties
Important Trends
X
X X
Criteria
Importance/Impact
Uncertainty
Independence
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Looking for Key Uncertainties - eg
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2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0,65
0,75
0,85
0,95
1,05
1,15
1,25
1,35
0,65 0,75 0,85 0,95 1,05 1,15 1,25 1,35
Impact
Uncertainty
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1 - Gastos com a Saúde
2 - Níveis de Financiamento do SNS
3 - Penetração Tecnológica no Sector
4 - Evolução do Sistema de Saúde I
5 - Evolução do Sistema de Saúde II
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7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Imp
acto
Incerteza
À procura de Incertezas Cruciais
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2
3
4
5
0,65
0,75
0,85
0,95
1,05
1,15
1,25
1,35
0,65 0,75 0,85 0,95 1,05 1,15 1,25 1,35
Impacto
Incerteza
À procura de Incertezas Cruciais
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Looking for Key Uncertaintiesup2you
Procurando Incertezas Cruciais
INCERTEZA
IMPACTO Impact
Uncertainty
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1 2
3 4
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Megatrends
Megatrends Megatrends
Megatrends
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GeopoliticalContext and
Energy Supply
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3
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Power andInfluenceRelations
TechnologicalInnovation
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2
4
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• Name + image/icon• Identification and articulation of key ideas and distinctive elements• Description of alternative, plausible, futures• T and MT that “support” the Scenarios• Actors (existent and potential) and power relations• Compatible and symbolic events/situations• Chronology• Archetypes (exs): good and bad, rise and fall, winners and losers,
crisis and response; discontinuities• + focus specificities• Possible (indicative/illustrative/compatible or with qualitative-
quantitative feedback) quantification
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U
Initial assumptions
Focal issue
What we still want to know,
research, monitor
New beliefs
HOW HAS OUR THINKING CHANGED?
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Q&A
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