Savills Vietnam - Q3 2009 - Hanoi & HCMC Market Presentation
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Transcript of Savills Vietnam - Q3 2009 - Hanoi & HCMC Market Presentation
October 2009
Ha Noi & HCMC Real Estate Market Q3 2009
Presented by Savills Vietnam Co., Ltd.
Presentation structure
•I. Ha Noi real estate market Q3 2009•II. HCMC real estate market Q3 2009•III. Viet Nam economic overview
•1 - Office for lease market •2 - Retail market •3 - Hotel market•4 - Apartment for sale market •5 - Serviced apartment market
Ha Noi market
I. Ha Noi Real Estate Market Overview Q3 2009
Market sectors:
• Total supply: – 74 office for lease buildings comprising 493,000 sq m
– +10% q-o-q
• 12 Grade A, 30 Grade B and 32 Grade C buildings
• 3 new Grade B office buildings (46,000 sq m): – CEO Tower, Pham Hung Street, 13,000 sq m
– Handiresco, Kim Ma Street, 21,000 sq m
– Plaschem, Nguyen Van Cu Street, 12,000 sq m
(1/5) Office for lease: Total supplyCEO Tower
Ha Noi market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
(1/5) Office for lease: Supply by district
Ha Noi market
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Hoan Kiem Dong Da Ba Dinh Cau Giay Hai BaTrung
Tu Liem Long B ien Tay Ho0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Net o ffice space for lease (RHS)
No o f bldgs (LHS)
No. o f buildings sq m
• Largest supply in Hoan Kiem District (30%), smallest supply: Tay Ho District (1%)
• Grade A: 21%, mainly in Hoan Kiem District, unchanged q-o-q. Grade B: 54%, largest
supply, +20% q-o-q. Grade C: 24%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
Grade A Grade B Grade CSq m
]
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
(1/5) Office for lease Market performance by grade
Ha Noi market
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Grade A Grade B Grade C0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
US$
/sq
m/m
onth
Occupancy rate Average rent
• Overall performance is worsen than Q2
• The average rent rate: US$28/sq m/month
• Grade A rent/ Grade C rent ~ 2.5 times
• The average occupancy rate: 85%
Rent gap (Grade B & C):
US$9.6
Rent gap (Grade A & B):
US$15.6
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
(1/5) Office for leaseOccupancy & rent, Grade A & B
Ha Noi market
Grade A
Occupancy rate = + 1% q-o-q
Average rent rate = - 4.5% q-o-q
Grade B
Occupancy rate = - 9% q-o-q
Average rent rate = - 2% q-o-q
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009-
10
20
30
40
50
60
US
$/sq
m/m
onth
Occupancy rate Average rent
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
US$
/sq
m/m
onth
Occupancy rate Average rent
Leasing enquiries seems to be trending upward since July 2009.
(1/5) Office for lease: Leasing enquire index
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 Ha Noi market
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
Janu
ary
Febr
uary
Mar
ch
April
May
June
July
Augu
st
Sept
embe
r
Oct
ober
Nov
embe
r
Dec
embe
r
Janu
ary
Febr
uary
Mar
ch
April
May
June
July
Augu
st
Sept
embe
r
2008 2009
%
Upward Trend?
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 Ha Noi market
(1/5) Office for leaseFuture supply forecast, Q4 2009 - 2012
•By Q4 2009: more 145,000 sq m, 10 projects
•2010 & 2011: about 350,000 sq m more each year
•By 2012: more 1.1 million sq m, mainly in suburbs
0
400,000
800,000
1,200,000
1,600,000
2,000,000
Q4 2009 2010 2011 2012
sq m Current supply New supply
(1/5) Office for lease Future supply by district, Q4 2009 - 2012
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 Ha Noi market
• Main supply in secondary and suburban districts.• Largest supply in Tu Liem & Cau Giay District.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Ba Dinh HoanKiem
Hai BaTrung
DongDa
HoangMai
CauGiay
ThanhXuan
Tay Ho Tu Liem LongBien
sq mCurrent supply as of Q3 2009 New supply of off ice space
CBD9%
Suburban40%
Secondary51%
• Total supply: 360,000 sq m, + 4% q-o-q
• 10 shopping centres, 2 department stores, 2 hypermarkets, 78 supermarkets & electronics, 2 wholesale centres and 12 retail podiums
• 1 new shopping centre - Vincom Galleries, Ba Trieu Street, 15,000 sq m
Ha Noi market
(2/5) Retail market
(2/5) Retail market: Supply by location and type
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 Ha Noi market
Suburban32%
CBD12%
Secondary 56% Hypermarket24%
Shopping center16%
Department store8%
Wholesales Centres
16%
Retail Podiums5%
Supermarkets31%
Supply by location• CBD: 12%, unchanged q-o-q• Secondary area: largest supply, 56%, +6% q-o-q
• Suburban area: 32%, unchanged q-o-q
Supply by type• Retail podium: mainly in CBD• Shopping centre & supermarket: mainly in secondary area
• Hypermarket & wholesale market: mainly in suburban area.
(2/5) Retail market Market performance – occupancy rate
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 Ha Noi market
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
CBD Secondary Suburban
Shopping centre/ Department Store/ Hypermarket
Retail PodiumOccupancy
N/A data for retail podium
•Overall occupancy: 90%-95%, decrease 3-5% q-o-q
•CBD: nearly 100% occupancy across all retail types
(2/5) Retail market Market performance – Rent rate
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 Ha Noi market
7
120
20
57
70
50
0102030405060708090
100110120130
CBD Secondary Suburban
Min Max
US$/sq m/month
150
3038
120
2030405060708090
100110120130140150160
CBD Secondary
Min Max
US$/sq m/month
Rent range is varied by location and types of retails.Widest range is for retail podium in CBD.
Shopping centre/ Department store/ Hypermarket
Retail Podium
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Q4 2009 2010 2011 2012
sq m Exist ing stock Future stock
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 Ha Noi market
•Q4 2009: 11,400 sq m•2010: more than 82,000 sq m
•2011: 425,000 sq m, largest future supply
•2012: 204,000 sq m
(2/5) Retail market Future supply Q4 2009 - 2012
(3/5) Hotel: Total supply
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 Ha Noi market
• Total supply: 5,678 rooms– Ten 5-star hotels, 2,983 rooms
– Six 4-star hotels, 1,083 rooms
– Twenty-two 3-star hotels, 1,612 rooms
• One new 4-star hotel, Mercure Ha Noi La Gare, Ly Thuong Kiet Street, with 102 rooms
3-star28%
4-star19%
5-star53%
(3/5) Hotel: Supply by district and grade
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 Ha Noi market
Hai Ba Trung11%
Long Bien1%
Tay Ho22%
Hoan Kiem26%
Ba Dinh25%
Dong Da15%
Supply by locationLargest provider: Hoan Kiem District (26%)Smallest provider: Long Bien District (1%)
Supply by gradeLargest segment: 5-star (53%)Smallest segment: 4-star (19%)
(3/5) HotelMarket performance – RevPAR indicator
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 Ha Noi market
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
RevPAR (US$) 5-star 4-star 3-star
n/ a
• RevPAV across all sectors: -9% q-o-q
• RevPAV for 5-star hotels: -10% q-o-q, largest decline
• RevPAV for 4-star hotels: almost unchanged q-o-q
• RevPAV for 3-star hotels: -9% q-o-q
Revenue per available room (RevPAR) = Average Daily Room Rate x Occupancy Rate
(3/5) Hotel Market performance of 4 & 5-star segment
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 Ha Noi market
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 20090
30
60
90
120
150
180
Average occupancy ARROccupancy (%) US$ per night
5-star segment
ARR: -10% q-o-q
Occupancy: unchanged q-o-q
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 20090
20
40
60
80
100
120
Average occupancy ARROccupancy (%) US$ per night
4-star segment
ARR: -5% q-o-q
Occupancy: +2% q-o-q
Average room rate (ARR) = the rooms revenue / the total number of guest rooms occupied.
(3/5) Hotel: International visitors & Future supply 2012
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 Ha Noi market
0
1
2
3
4
5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 First 9monthsof 2009
No. of foreign visitors (million) Vietnam Hanoi
International visitors• Number of international visitor to Viet Nam:
-17% y-o-y
• Number of international visitor to Ha Noi: -2% y-o-y
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2010 2011 Future
# of rooms Existing stock New supply
Future supply by 2012• Mainly in Tu Liem & Cau Giay districts
in the next 2 years.
• Mainly comes from 4 & 5-star hotel projects.
• Primary supply: 1,152 units from 10 active projects
• Secondary supply: 29,150 units
(4/5) Apartment for sale: Total supply
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 Ha Noi market
Mipec Tower
Sky City Towers
Keangnam Hanoi Landmark Tower
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
(4/5) Apartment for sale: Primary market by district and grade
Ha Noi market
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Tu Liem Dong Da Hai Ba Trung Ba Dinh Hoan Kiem
Units
•Largest supply: Tu Liem District, smallest supply: Hoan Kiem District
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
Grade A Grade B Grade C
Units
Primary supply
•Grade A ( 83.7%), Grade B (0.9%), and Grade C(15.5%)
•Un-balance among product types
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
(4/5) Apartment for sale: Primary market performance
Ha Noi market
• Overall average primary asking price: +5% q-o-q
• Sold units/ Primary supply Grade A = 27%
Grade B = 60%
Grade C = 96%
0100200300400500600700800900
1,000
Grade A Grade B Grade C
No. of units
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000US$/ m2
Primary supply
No. of sold units in Q3 2009Average primary asking price excl. VAT
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
(4/5) Apartment for sale: Secondary market by district
Ha Noi market
01,000
2,0003,0004,000
5,0006,000
7,0008,000
CauGiay
Tu Liem HoangMai
Dong Da LongBien
Ba Dinh Hai BaTrung
Tay Ho ThanhXuan
HoanKiem
Units
Secondary supply
Secondary supply mainly in Cau Giay, Tu Liem & Hoang Mai districts.
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
(4/5) Apartment for sale: Secondary market performance – asking price
Ha Noi market
-
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
US$/ sq mTu Liem Cau Giay Thanh Xuan
Hoang Mai Long Bien
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
US$/ sq mHoan Kiem Ba Dinh Tay Ho
Dong Da Hai Ba Trung
• Most increase are Cau Giay & Hoang Mai, 20% & 19.4% q-o-q respectively
• Lower increases in Hoan Kiem & Ba Dinh, 2.7% & 3.4% q-o-q respectively
• The average living space: 7 - 7.5 sq m/ person (year 2008, MOT)
• High income and saving• High speed urbanization• More attractive mortgage plans,
up to 70% value and repayment time up to 20 years.
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
(4/5) Apartment for sale: High demand
Ha Noi market
Notable projects expected to launch up to end 2009
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
(4/5) Apartment for sale: Supply up to end 2009
Ha Noi market
No. Apartment project name District No. of Units
1 Project at 671 Hoang Hoa Tham (Phase II) Ba Dinh 40
2 Trung Yen 2 Cau Giay 240
3 Hanoi Indochina Plaza Cau Giay 390
4 Richland Southern Tower Cau Giay 176
5 Lilama Plaza Hoang Mai 150
6 Canal Park - Thach Ban New City (Phase I) Long Bien 148
7 CT1- Co Nhue New Urban Area Tu Liem 72
8 Megastar Dominium Tu Liem 336
9 Dolphin Plaza Tu Liem 400
Total 1,952
By 2012: 10,290 units expected, mainly in Tu Liem (34%) & Cau Giay (30%)
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
(4/6) Apartment for sale: Future supply by year up to 2012
Ha Noi market
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
Tu Liem
Cau GiayDong Da
Hoang MaiBa Dinh
Thanh Xuan
Long BienHai Ba Trung
Dong AnhTay Ho
Gia LamThanh Tri
Hoan Kiem
Units
No record for future supply by 2012 in these districts
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
(4/5) Apartment for sale: Future supply by year up to 2012
Ha Noi market
•Vinh Tuy Bridge put into operation•Future infrastructure projects
Nhat Tan Bridge
Hoa Binh Park
Le Van Luong extended road
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
Units Grade A Grade B Grade C
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
(5/5) Serviced Apartment – Total supply
Ha Noi market
• 41 projects, about 220,000 sq m, 2197 units– 11 Grade A, 1,181 units
– 17 Grade B, 819 units
– 13 Grade C, 197 units
• 100 units from Fraser Suites, Xuan Dieu Street, entered the market in Q3 2009
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
(5/5) Serviced Apartment: Supply by district
Ha Noi market
22%
10%4%
64%
>200 sq m
150 sq m - 200 sq m
100 sq m - 150 sq m
<100 sq m
Supply by unit size
• Highest market share are units <100 sq m
• Smallest market share are units >200 sq m• The smaller size, the higher market share
28%38%
16%6%
3%
1% 8%
Ba Dinh
Cau Giay
Dong Da
Hoang Mai
Hai Ba Trung
Hoan Kiem
Tay Ho
Supply by district
• Main stock in Tay Ho, Ba Dinh & Hoan Kiem
• Fewer stock in Hoang Mai & Dong Da
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 Ha Noi market
(5/5) Serviced ApartmentMarket performance by occupancy & rent
0
20
40
60
80
100
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 200920.021.022.023.024.025.026.027.028.029.030.0
Occupancy (%) Average Rent Percent US$/ sq m/ month
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 Ha Noi market
(5/5) Serviced Apartment Market performance by grade
50
60
70
80
90
100
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
% Grade A Grade B Grade C
Occupancy decreases 2% q-o-q across all three gradesOccupancy rates are stable from Q3 2008 to Q3 2009 (range from 86% to 89%)
0
10
20
30
40
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
US$/ sq m/ monthGrade A Grade B Grade C
Grade A rent: decreased 11% q-o-q, to 30.3US$/ sq m/ month.Grade B & Grade C rent: almost remain q-o-q
List of futrue projects under construction
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 Ha Noi market
1,222Total
n/an/aTu LiemHabico Tower8
2012150Cau GiayHD Plaza Thanh Xuan7
201260Cau GiayHD Complex6
Q4 201160Thanh XuanLicogi 135
Q3 2011506Tu LiemKeangnam Hanoi Landmark Tower4
Q3 2011352Ba DinhThe Landmark (Hanoi City Complex)3
Q4 201084Tu LiemCrown Plaza Complex (X7 Site)2
Q4 200910Tay HoHanoi Fraser Suites1
Est. Completion yearNo. of UnitsDistrictName of ProjectNo.
(5/5) Serviced Apartment: Future supply
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 Ha Noi market
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 Future
Stock New supplyUnits
(5/5) Serviced Apartment: Future supply
• Main future supply: in west & north west of Ha Noi
• 2011: huge stock expected to enter market.
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 Ha Noi market
(5/5) Serviced Apartment rent v.s. Office rent
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
US$/ sq m/ month Office Serviced Apt.
Gap is narrowing
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 Ha Noi market
(5/5) Serviced Apartment v.s. Hotel occupancy
0
20
40
60
80
100
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
% Hotel Serviced Apt.
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 Ha Noi market
(5/5) Serviced Apartment v.s. Hotel rent
Rent of both sectors have been decreasing since Q4 2008
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
US$/
nig
ht
23.524.024.525.025.526.026.527.027.528.028.529.0
US$/
sq
m/ m
onth
Hotel (LHS) Serviced Apt. (RHS)
•1 - Office for lease market •2 - Retail market •3 - Hotel market•4 - Apartment for sale market •5 - Serviced apartment market
Ha Noi market
II. HCMC Real Estate Market Overview Q3 2009
Market sectors:
• Total supply: 752,000 sq m, + 5% q-o-q.
- Grade A: 6 buildings, 100,000 sq m- Grade B: 31 buildings, 375,000 sq m
• New supply: Kumho Asiana Plaza, 39 Le Duan Boulevard - District 1, 25,700 sq m
(1/5) Office for lease: Total supply
HCMC market Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
• Largest supply: District 1, 440,000 sq m, 60% market share
• Smallest supply: District 5, 1,000 sq m, 0.1% market share
• District 7, new development area, 53,000 sq m, 7% market share
(1/5) Office for lease: Supply by district
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
Dist. 1 Tan Binh Dist. 3 Dist. 7 PhuNhuan
Dist. 10 Dist. 4 BinhThanh
Dist. 5
sq m
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%%
Total net area Market share
HCMC market
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
thousand sq mGrade A Grade B
(1/5) Office for lease: Supply by grade
HCMC market
Grade A increased 35% in supply q-o-q
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
Grade A• The average rent: US$ 63.2/ sq m/mth, -3%
q-o-q.
• The average occupancy: 81%, -15% q-o-q.
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
%
0102030405060708090100
US$/sq m/mth
Occupancy (LHS) Average Rent (RHS)
HCMC market
(1/5) Office for lease: Market performance Grade A and Grade B
Grade B •The average rent: US$30/ sq m/mth, remains unchanged.
• The average occupancy: 86%, +6% q-o-q.
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
%
0102030405060708090100
US$/sq m/mth
Occupancy (LHS) Average Rent (RHS)
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
$US/sq m/month
0
20
40
60
80
100
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
$US/room/night
0
40
80
120
160
200
5-star Hotels (RHS)Grade A Office for lease (LHS)Grade A Serviced Apartment (LHS)
$US/sq m/month
0
20
40
60
80
100
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
$US/room/night
0
40
80
120
160
200
4-star Hotels (RHS)Grade B Office for lease (LHS)Grade B Serviced Apartment (LHS)
HCMC market
(1/5) Office for lease: Office rent, Hotel rate and Serviced Apartment rent
Enquiries seems to be trending downward since July 2009.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
May
-08
Jun-
08
Jul-0
8
Aug
-08
Sep
-08
Oct
-08
Nov
-08
Dec
-08
Jan-
09
Feb-
09
Mar
-09
Apr
-09
May
-09
Jun-
09
Jul-0
9
Aug
-09
Sep
-09
Office leasing enquiry
(1/5) Office for lease: Leasing enquire index
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 HCMC market
Demand by area Demand by purpose
35%
30%
12%
7%
2%
12%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Below 100 sq m
100 - 200 sq m
201 - 300 sq m
301 - 400 sq m
401 - 500 sq m
Over 500 sq m
4%
9%
9%
14%
24%
40%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
From Grade A to C
From Grade A to B
New entrants to B
From Grade C to C
From Grade C to B
From Grade B to B
(1/5) Office for lease: Successful transaction
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 HCMC market
• By 2012: over one million sq m new office supply.
• Office market could double its supply in the next 3 years.
(1/5) Office for lease: Future supply by year
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 HCMC market
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
Actual 2009 Actual 2010 Actual 2011 Potential 2012
sq mFuture supply
District 1
District 7
Tan BinhDistrict 4
Binh Thanh
Nha Be
District 3
District 9
District 5District 10
Tan Phu
• Largest future supply: District 1, 60% market share
• New supply developing in surburban areas like 7, Tan Binh and Nha Be districts.
(1/5) Office for lease: Future supply by district up to 2012
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 HCMC market
District PercentageDistrict 1 59%District 7 20%Tan Binh 5%District 4 3%Binh Thanh 3%Nha Be 3%District 3 2%District 9 2%District 5 1%District 10 1%Tan Phu 1%
(2/5) Retail market: Total Supply
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 HCMC market
• Total supply: 452,400 sq m– 5 department stores
– 15 shopping centres
– 6 retail podium
– 59 super markets
– 3 wholesale markets
• No new supply in Q3 2009
(2/5) Retail market: Supply by location and type
Supply by location Supply by type
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 HCMC market
19%
35%
46%
SuburbanSecondaryCBD
1%15%
31%42%
11%
Supermarkets
Shopping Centres
Department Stores
Wholesale Markets
Retail Podiums
US$/sq m/month
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Lotte
Mar
t
Thua
n Ki
eu P
laza
Vina
tex
Plaz
a
Saig
on P
arag
on
Roy
al C
entre
Citi
Plaz
a
Tax
Plaz
a
Alta
Pla
za
Saig
on S
uper
bow
l
Saig
on C
entre
Eden
Mal
l
Saig
on S
quar
e
Mas
ter Z
one
Luck
y Pl
aza
sq m
0
30
60
90
120
150
Approx. Area Low er rent Upper rent
• Average rent: US$44 to US$80 per sqm.
• Average occupancy: 94%
(2/5) Retail marketMarket performance of shopping centre
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 HCMC market
• Average rent: US$38 to US$140 per sq m.
• Highest rent: US$220 (Diamond Plaza) (comparable to mall rents in Thailand)
US$/sq m/month
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Parkson HungVuong
ParksonSaigontourist
Parkson CTPlaza
Diamond Plaza Zen Plaza
sq m
0
50
100
150
200
250
Approx. Area Low er rent Upper rent
(2/5) Retail market Market performance of Department stores
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 HCMC market
sq m
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
The Manor Opera View New WorldHotel
Rex Hotel SheratonSaigon
CaravelleHotel
US$/sq m/month
0
30
60
90
120
150
Approx. Area Upper rent Low er rent• Average rent: US$74 to US$105 per sq m
• Average occupancy: 99%.
(2/5) Retail marketMarket performance of retail podium
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 HCMC market
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
2010E 2011E 2012 E
sq m• Shortage retail space anticipated in HCMC until 2010.
• Demand expected to grow. Undersupply expected.
(2/5) Retail marketFuture supply by year up to 2012
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 HCMC market
• (13) 5-star hotels: 4,288 rooms,
• (8) 4-star hotels: 1,280 rooms
• New supply: 5-star Intercontinental Asiana Saigon, Corner Hai Ba Trung and Le Duan Street, 305 rooms.
(3/5) Hotel: Total supply
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 HCMC market
• Most 4 & 5-star hotels are located in District 1 (70%).
• Follow in supply: District 5, 3, Tan Binh and Phu Nhuan.
No. of rooms
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
District 1 District 3 District 5 Tan Binh Phu Nhuan Can Gio
5-star 4-star 3-star
(3/5) Hotel: Supply by district and grade
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 HCMC market
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
%
0
40
80
120
160
200US$/room/night
OccupancyAverage room rate
(3/5) Hotel: Market performance of 5 and 4-star hotels
4-star hotels:• Room rate: US$72/night, -1% q-o-q. • Occupancy: 54%
5-star hotels:• Room rate: US$117/night, remains unchanged • Occupancy: 50%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
%
0
40
80
120
160
200US$/room/night
OccupancyAverage room rate
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 HCMC market
• To Vietnam: 2.8 million visitors, -16% y-o-y
• To HCMC: 2 million visitors, -12% y-o-y
(3/5) Hotel: International visitors to Vietnam and HCMC by year
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 HCMC market
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Sep-09
No. of foreign visitors (million)
To HCMC (mil)To VN (mil)
Up to 2012:
•1,050 5-star rooms
•1,000 4-star rooms
100300500700900
1,1001,3001,5001,7001,900
2010E 2011E 2012E
No. of roomsFuture supply
(3/5) Hotel: Future supply by year up 2012
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 HCMC market
• New supply: 10 projects, 3,400 apartments
• Primary market: 34 active projects, 5,620 apartments
• Secondary market: 91 sold out projects, 41,500 apartments
(4/5) Apartment for sale: Total supply
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 HCMC market
New supply - River Park in Phu My Hung, D7
• District 8: 1,200 apartments, 21% market share
• District 7: 880 apartments, 16% market share
• District 2: 820 apartments, 15% market share
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Dis
t. 8
Dis
t. 7
Dis
t. 2
Thu
Duc
Binh
Tan
Nha
Be
Binh
Tha
nh
Tan
Binh
Dis
t. 6
Dis
t. 11
Tan
Phu
Go
Vap
Dis
t. 9
Dis
t. 4
Dis
t. 5
Units
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%%
No. of units in active projectsMarket share
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 HCMC market
(4/5) Apartment for sale: Primary market by district
• Grade A: 500 apartments, 9% market share
• Grade B: 890 apartments, 16% market share
• Grade C: 4,230 apartments, 75% market share
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Grade A Grade B Grade C
Apartments
0
20
40
60
80
100%
Primary supplyMarket share (%)
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 HCMC market
(4/5) Apartment for sale: Total supply
Market share:
• District 7: 26%
• Binh Thanh District: 12%
• District 2: 11% 1,000
3,000
5,000
7,000
9,000
11,000
13,000
Dist. 7 BinhThanh
Dist. 2 BinhChanh
Nha Be Tan Phu Dist. 4 Dist. 8 Dist. 1 Thu Duc
Apartments Secondary supply
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
Dist. 5 Binh Tan Dist. 6 Dist. 9 Go Vap Tan Binh Dist. 11 Dist. 3 Dist. 12 PhuNhuan
Apartments Secondary supply
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 HCMC market
(4/5) Apartment for sale: Secondary market by district
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Dist. 8 Dist. 7 Dist. 2 ThuDuc
BinhTan
Nha Be BinhThanh
TanBinh
Apartments
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500US$ per sq m
Primary supply in Q3 2009# of units sold in Q3 2009Average Primary Price
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Dist. 6 Dist. 11 Tan Phu Go Vap Dist. 9 Dist. 4 Dist. 5
Apartments
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500US$ per sq m
Primary supply in Q3 2009# of units sold in Q3 2009Average Primary Price
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 HCMC market
(4/5) Apartment for sale: Primary market performance by district
• High population: due to high birth rate & large number of migrants
• Apr 2009: HCMC population stands at 7.1 million via Population and Housing Census conducted every 10 years.
• High income and saving recorded• Low debt recorded• High speed urbanization: in every direction from
the city centre.• Banking market: more attractive mortgage plans,
up to 70% value and repayment time is up to 20 years.
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 HCMC market
(4/5) Apartment for sale: Demand
By 2012: 46,000 apartments are planned for launch.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2010 2011 2012
Apartments
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40Projects
# of planned units# of planned projects
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 HCMC market
(4/5) Apartment for sale: Future supply by year up to 2012
• Districts 7, 9 and District 2 will be the main future supply (50%).
• District 9 is emerging as one of the main suppliers in HCMC in the mid-term.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Dist. 7 Dist. 9 Dist. 2 Nha Be Dist. 8 Dist. 1 Go Vap Thu Duc Binh Tan Others
Apartments
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%%
Future supplyMarket share
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 HCMC market
(4/5) Apartment for sale: Future supply by district up to 2012
• Total supply: 48 serviced apartment buildings, 2,670 units.
- Grade A: 7 buildings, 658 units
- Grade B: 11 buildings, 1,272 units
- Grade C: 30 buildings, 740 units
• New supply: Kumho Asiana Plaza, 260 units
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 HCMC market
(5/5) Serviced Apartment: Total supply
Kumho Asiana Plaza
Districts 1 and 3 are considered well-developed supplied for serviced apartments (67%).
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Dist. 1 Dist. 3 Binh Thanh Dist. 2 Dist. 7 Dist. 10 Phu Nhuan Tan Binh
No. of units
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%%
No. of UnitsMarket share
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 HCMC market
(5/5) Serviced Apartment: Supply by district
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Grade A Grade B Grade C
No. of units
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%%
SupplyMarket share
Market share
• Grade A: 25%
• Grade B: 48%
• Grade C: 28%
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 HCMC market
(5/5) Serviced Apartment: Supply by grade
0
200
400
600
800
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
Units
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40US$/ sqm/ month
Vacancy unitsLeased unitsAverage rent
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 HCMC market
(5/5) Serviced Apartment: Market performance of Grade A and Grade B
Grade BRent: US$24/ sq m, -2% q-o-q Occupancy: 94%
Grade ARent: US$27/ sq m, -6% q-o-q Occupancy: 64%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 09
Units
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40US$/ sq m/ month
Vacancy unitsLeased unitsAverage rent
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E
No. of UnitsNew Stock
By 2012: 1,400 serviced apartments to be launched.
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 HCMC market
(5/5) Serviced Apartment: Future supply by year up to 2012
Oct 2009
VIET NAM ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Q3 2009
•Presented by Savills Vietnam Co., Ltd.
Source: General Statistic Office, Q3 2009
US$ Billion
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Est.2009
Remittance
Viet Nam economic overviewRemittance from overseas Vietnamese (1996 – 2009E)
Source: General Statistic Office, Q3 2009
Viet Nam economic overviewNational GDP growth rate (1998 – Q1-Q3 2009)
0
20
40
60
80
100
US$ Billion
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
GDP at current price 27.2 28.5 30.6 32.3 33.6 38.7 45.4 53.3 61.0 70.0 88.5 64.8
GDP grow th rate 5.80% 4.80% 6.00% 6.80% 6.90% 7.24% 7.70% 8.40% 8.17% 8.48% 6.23% 4.56%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Q1- Q3 09
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Billion US$
Pledged FDI 3.2 4.5 6.8 10.2 20.3 64.0 12.54
Disbursed FDI 2.65 2.85 2.45 3.6 8.3 11.5 7.2
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Q1-Q3 2009
Source: General Statistic Office, Q3 2009
Viet Nam economic overviewFDI to Viet Nam
0.05.0
10.015.020.025.0
30.035.040.045.050.0
01/08 02/08 03/08 04/08 05/08 06/08 07/08 08/08 09/08 10/08 11/08 12/08 01/09 02/09 03/09 04/09 05/09 06/09 07/09 08/09 09/09
%
CPICPI - Food & FoodstuffCPI - Construction materials
Source: General Statistic Office, Q3 2009
Viet Nam economic overviewCPI of Viet Nam
Ha Noi Office13th Floor, Pacific Place83B Ly Thuong Kiet, HanoiTel: (04) 3946 1300Fax: (04) 3946 [email protected]
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