Satellite Image/Loop of Sandy
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Transcript of Satellite Image/Loop of Sandy
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Satellite Image/Loop of Sandy
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Slide showing surface analysis of Sandy throughout lifetime
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Slide with loop of Sandy (with track?)
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Forecasts Provided by Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Valid 12Z October 29, 2012Surface Analysis Seven day forecast
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Forecasts Provided by Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Valid 12Z October 29, 2012Surface Analysis Six day forecast
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Forecasts Provided by Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Valid 12Z October 29, 2012Surface Analysis Five day forecast
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Forecasts Provided by Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Valid 12Z October 29, 2012Surface Analysis Four day forecast
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Forecasts Provided by Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Valid 12Z October 29, 2012Surface Analysis Three day forecast
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Forecasts Provided by Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Valid 12Z October 29, 2012Surface Analysis Two day forecast
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Forecasts Provided by Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
Valid 12Z October 29, 2012Surface Analysis One day forecast
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Official 5 – day Track Forecast from 8AM, Saturday, October 27, 2012
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Official 5 – day Track Forecast from 8AM, Sunday, October 28, 2012
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Wave Watch III model output valid 8PM Mon Oct 3036 hour Wave height forecast (ft)
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Surge Probabilities from morning of Oct 28
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ESTOFS Surge Guidance
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Probability of 48 hour snowfall > 12 inchesIssued 2PM, Saturday, Oct 27, 2012
Valid 8PM, Sunday Oct 28 – 8PM Tuesday Oct 30
3 day Snow Accumulation (inches)Issued 2PM, Saturday, Oct 27, 2012
Valid 8PM Saturday Oct 28 – 8PM Tuesday Oct 30
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Extratropical Surge Height (x 0.1feet)ESTOFS – 114 hour forecast valid 8AM Tuesday October 30
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ASCAT winds – 10:19 AM Monday October 29
Bright red – Hurricane Force (>63 kts)Dark Brown – Storm Force – (48-56 kts)
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ESTOFS Surge Guidance from 2AM Sunday Oct 28
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MSLP and 10 m winds – 30 hour GFS forecast valid 8AM October 30
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Day 7 ForecastValid 8AM Monday Oct 29
Verifying AnalysisValid 8AM Monday Oct 29
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OPC 96 hour forecast from Thursday Oct 25 valid Monday Oct 29
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OPC 96 hour forecast from Friday Oct 26 valid Tuesday Oct 30
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2091NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0151 PM CDT MON OCT 29 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS OF FAR WRN MD...WV...AND PARTS OF WRN VA
CONCERNING...BLIZZARD VALID 291851Z - 300045Z
SUMMARY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 21Z WITH SNOWFALL RATES INCREASING TO 1-2 IN/HR...AND LOCALLY HIGHER RATES ARE ANTICIPATED. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES AND STRONGEST WINDS ANTICIPATED FOR ELEVATIONS AOA 2000 FT.
DISCUSSION...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ONGOING AS OF MID AFTERNOON OWING TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME -- I.E. 20-30 KT OF NWLY FLOW SAMPLED BY THE CHARLESTON WV VWP WITHIN THE 0.5-1-KM LAYER. INTENSE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERACTION BETWEEN HURRICANE SANDY AND A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL YIELD A MARKED INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION RATES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED ADIABATIC COOLING WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER...WITH SNOWFALL RATES INCREASING TO 1 IN/HR FOR ELEVATIONS AOA 2000 FT AFTER 21Z. HIGHER RATES TO 2 IN/HR /LOCALLY HIGHER/ WILL DEVELOP AFTER 00Z. THIS WILL OCCUR AS ASCENT IS AUGMENTED BY WAA AND STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE FRINGES OF THE WARM CORE ACCOMPANYING BECOMING-POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY...AND NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING TAKES PLACE. NAM/RAPID-REFRESH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NEARLY 100-MB DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS...ATOP -2C TO -4C ISOTHERMAL LAYERS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SUPPORTING THESE HEAVY SNOW RATES.
AS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF SANDY...0-1-KM MEAN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 45-50 KT AFTER 21Z. AS SUCH...SUSTAINED NWLY/WNWLY WINDS OF 35-40 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED...STRONGEST OVER RIDGE TOPS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO BELOW 1/4 MILE WITH BLOWING SNOW...RESULTING IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ..COHEN.. 10/29/2012
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2091
October 29, 2012
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12Z Monday, Oct 29, 2012 18Z Monday, Oct 29, 2012
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72 hour Precipitation Forecast: 8AM Saturday Oct 27 – 8AM Tuesday Oct 30Issued 6AM, Sat Oct 27, 2012