Satellite-based short-term thunderstorm forecastingtoward flash flood predictions:

Recent developments for Mesoamerica in the context of SERVIR

• Overview of CI Nowcasting and QPE Forecasting over Mesoamerica

• Overview of SERVIR as applicable to CAFFG

John R. Mecikalski, Assistant ProfessorAtmospheric Science Department

University of Alabama in Huntsville

Daniel Irwin, NASA Marshall Space Flight CenterHuntsville, Alabama

andCATHALAC, City of Knowledge, Panama

SERVIR:An Environmental

Monitoring and Decision Support

System for Mesoamerica

Background – NASA in Central America

•Fire Detection•Land Cover/Land Use•Forest Monitoring•Red Tides•Climate Change•Short Term Weather•Drought Monitoring•Inter. Scientific Research•Carbon Flux•Hot Spot Monitoring•Disaster Mitigation•Urban Studies

SERVIR Concept Drawing - 2003

CATHALACOPERATIONALSERVIR NODE

NASA/MSFCTEST BED

SERVIR NODE

SPORT

SST

Other

SERVIR Test Bed Node – NASA/MSFC in 2004

SERVIR Lab in Panama - CATHALAC

SERVIR Dedication – February 3, 2005

• Project 1: NASA/REASoN

– Funding

– NASA – REASON/CAN (5 Years)

• Objective: To Develop a Regional Monitoring and Visualization System for Decision Support for Mesoamerica for Environmental Management and Disaster Support

• Project 2: NASA/USAID (3 Years)

– PASA with USAID – Started in October 2003

– Funding

– USAID

• Objective 1: In-Country regional Hub, centralized repository with decentralized control, country nodes, massive archive and distribution system (MesoStor)

• Objective 2: Land Cover Classification/Change to assist with National Inventories/National Communications

– Objective 3: Climate Change Modeling and Scenarios

SERVIR Web Page http://servir.nsstc.nasa.gov

• Fully Operational by February 1, 2005

• Four Main Sections

1. Mesoamerican Data

2. Online Maps

3. Decision Support

4. Visualizations

• GeoIntegrator

• Web Map Server (WMS) at regional node

• WMS at national nodes

• Free service to host data

2. Online Maps

3. Decision Support

•Fires

– MODIS Rapid Response

– Web Fire Mapper (UMD)

•Red Tides (Harmful Algal Blooms)

•Climate Change Scenarios

•Short Term Weather Prediction (SPORT)

•Land Cover and Land Use Change for Carbon Inventories

•Floods

•Other

Red Tides/Tehuano Winds – February 2006

OBJECTIVE

The key task is to evaluate the relative roles on climate change for Central America of effects such as global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions and continuing land use changes.

Oak Ridge National Laboratory Supercomputer

2005201020202025 

Climate Change Scenarios

Over the next 20 years, we see warming and drying in both the dry and wet seasons, but the impact is much greater in the wet season for both temperature and rainfall.

Results suggest that human activities in this region could help trigger, prolong, or exacerbate drought.

For Central America, the climate effects due to deforestationare potentially MUCH larger than those due to greenhouse-gasinduced climate change. Complete deforestation leads to a significant warming of up to 4-6 deg C, and a large drop in precipitation of up to 30%.

Over the next 20 years, we see warming and drying in both the dry and wet seasons, but the impact is much greater in the wet season for both temperature and rainfall.

Results suggest that human activities in this region could help trigger, prolong, or exacerbate drought.

For Central America, the climate effects due to deforestationare potentially MUCH larger than those due to greenhouse-gasinduced climate change. Complete deforestation leads to a significant warming of up to 4-6 deg C, and a large drop in precipitation of up to 30%.

Climate Change Scenarios-Results

Short Term Numerical Forecasting

Herramientas para Toma de Desiciones

SERVIR Disaster Products

Experimental Products - Nowcasting

Experimental Products – Cloud Climatology

1997-Present (hourly) from GOES at 4 km

Visualization Tools for Decision Support

• NASA and COTS

–NASA World Wind

–Google Earth

–Skyline

–Space Time Toolkit

• Users

–Decision Makers

–Media

–Educators

–Students

Training Facilities

Training Center in Panama

User Feedback & Potential for GAFFG

• “We hope that SERVIR will continue for the long term, and for the foreseeable future, it will be a basis for much of our work in the conservation of Guatemala.” Director of Guatemala Park Service

• “I sincerely believe that this project is providing a substantial contribution to not only our work in Guatemala but all throughout Mesoamerica.” Wildlife Conservation Society, Guatemala

• “The partnership has been very fruitful for all concerned. I would rate as ‘excellent’ our experience in working with NASA.” World Bank Senior Biodiversity Expert

Integration of CAFFG Product into SERVIR & visa versa

June 10, 2002 27

Involved Institutions

Private Sector

• Cable & Wireless Panama

• EGE Fortuna S.A

• City of Knowledge

• Tierras Altas S.A.

Collaborators

• University of South Florida

• The Nature Conservancy

• University of South Florida

• USGS/EROS

• InBio

• Smithsonian

• Others

Participants

• University of Alabama Huntsville

• University of Arkansas

• Science Systems and Applications Inc.

• Oak Ridge National Laboratory

• Institute for the Application of Geospatial Technologies (IAGT)

• Universities Space Research Association

Socios de SERVIR