Tues. 4 Oct. 2011

AL-JAZEERA A conversation with Grand Mufti Hassoun ………………….1

WALL st. JOURNAL Assassinations Sow Discord in Syria ………………………..4

BBC Is the Syria uprising heading towards civil war?. ...................8

GUARDIAN Syria accused of torturing relatives of overseas activists …..11

TODAY’S ZAMAN Economic relations between Turkey and Syria …….………14

BLOOMBERG Tiny Qatar’s Big Plans May Change Mideast ……...………17

DAILY CALLER Post-Assad Syria less likely to go Islamist than Egypt, say

experts……………...………………………………………22

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HOME PAGEA conversation with Grand Mufti Hassoun Grand Mufti Hassoun, whose 22-year-old son was recently assassinated in Syria, is a supporter of Bashar al-Assad.Nir Rosen,Al Jazeera English,03 Oct 2011,

As the Syrian uprising turns more violent, the latest victim in a spate of assassinations is Saria Hassoun, the 22-year-old son of Syria's Grand Mufti, Sheikh Ahmad Badreddin Hassoun. The shooting occurred outside Ibla University on the Idlib-Aleppo highway. Also killed with Saria Hassoun was Mohammad al-Omar, a professor of History at Aleppo University. Assassinations have become a near-daily occurrence, especially in the central province of Homs, where academics and officials are targeted in a tactic reminiscent those used by the Muslim Brotherhood in their armed uprising between 1976 and 1982. According to Thomas Pierret, a lecturer in Contemporary Islam at the University of Edinburgh and author of a forthcoming book on the Baath party and Islam in Syria, the first cleric killed in that uprising was the son of then Grand Mufti Ahmad Kaftaru: "He was killed in 1979 in obscure circumstances, reportedly during an incident with tenants of one of his family's land properties. Nobody ever accused the Islamists of carrying out the assassination, and the Islamists themselves didn't claim responsibility for it (although they did it for other assassinated clerics). There is no doubt, however, that the Islamists killed Muhammad al-Shami, a prominent pro-regime cleric of Aleppo, in 1980. His son Suhayb (Hassoun's deadly foe) was appointed as director of the city's Religious Endowment in 1982, a position he occupied until 2005. Islamists also killed Rashid al-Khatib, the preacher of the Umayyad mosque in Damascus, in 1981. And they seriously injured Salah 'Uqla, another Damascene pro-regime sheikh." The Muslim clergy in Aleppo have a reputation for being the most corrupt in Syria, enriching themselves through embezzlement and the theft of public funds. Suhayb al-Shami was even more

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notorious for his corruption than Hassoun. Opposition activists in Aleppo frequently mention the expensive cars driven by the Mufti's sons and complain that the Mufti is very wealthy while his father was from a modest village.

Mufti Hassoun, who is based in the northern city of Aleppo, is widely reviled by the Syrian opposition for his open support of the regime and hostility to the protesters. This is in contrast to many other Sunni clerics throughout the country, who have expressed opposition to the regime, including the Mufti of Daraa, Sheikh Ahmad Abdulaziz Abazid, who was arrested during the uprising and whose house in Daraa's Karak neighbourhood is riddled with bullet-holes. In the daily demonstrations held in Syria, Mufti Hassoun is frequently mentioned in ire, as in one demonstration in Homs' Waer district, where hundreds of protesters chanted: "Listen, listen, Hassoun, take off your turban and put on horns!"

It is his moderate pro-regime position that has led to protesters in Syria mocking Mufti Hassoun in nearly every demonstration.

Meeting the MuftiIn August I met with Mufti Hassoun in Aleppo's Rawda mosque in the presence of three of his sons and his brother. Despite being majority Sunni, Aleppo, Syria's largest city, had not risen up like other parts of the country. I asked the Mufti why this was so. Aleppo was more educated and foreign influence was weaker in Aleppo, he said, echoing the regime's narrative that blamed a foreign conspiracy for the then six-month-old uprising. What was happening in other cities in Syria was foreign to Aleppo, he said, a result of ideas coming in from outside of Syria. In addition to the foreign conspiracy, the Mufti also blamed "internal shortcomings in services and political pluralism" for the "foreign inflammation" of Syria. He admitted that Syria had not had political pluralism in Syria for 40 years. But he warned against the pluralism of Egypt, Tunisia and Iraq. "Iraq has more than 100 parties," his son interrupted. The Mufti added that he was opposed to religious or ethnic parties.

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I asked him about the role of Islam in the demonstrations, reminding him that demonstrations emerged from mosques. He denied this, claiming that demonstrators came from elsewhere to meet in front of mosques.

I reminded him that takbeer, or the call to shout "God is great", was one of the main slogans of the uprising. He blamed outside influences for this, specifically "Wahhabi satellite channels". It was a reference to Wesal, a Saudi channel that aired sermons by the exiled Syrian firebrand Sheikh Adnan al-Arur, who urged the opposition to shout the takbeer. The Mufti said takbeer should be limited for the call to prayer that echoed from mosques five times a day. It was not to be shouted at midnight, he said. "I warn America," he said, "If there is a religious state here, it will move to Europe and the US. This happened in the former Yugoslavia." I told him that I had seen many clerics playing a role in the uprising. "There are sheikhs inciting the demonstrations," he said. "But they are not conscious to what is happening in the Arab region. There is destruction in the name of democratic change but democratic change cannot be achieved by violence against the government or opposition. "The words 'Sunni' or 'Christian' should be smaller than the word 'citizen'," he said. I told him that the opposition accused the Syrian government of being an Alawite regime. "In Iraq, they said it was a Sunni government," he told me, "Now Shia say we miss Saddam because they lost their security. There is a Baath party here and it is 80 or 90 percent Sunni." I asked him what he thought of the first dead demonstrator from Aleppo, Muhammad al-Iqta, who the opposition claims was killed by an electrical stun gun during a demonstration. The Mufti claimed al-Iqta died from a heart attack. "Demonstrators cursed and insulted those who did not come out to join them," he said. "Is that peaceful? No it is not. Two sides opened fire, some from the demonstrators and some from the state. In the first month more soldiers died than [members of the] opposition. Many groups are

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armed, some want an Islamic state and some want a secular state and they are together like in Tahrir Square in Egypt." After we parted, his son, who had occasionally whispered advice to his father on answers, rushed after me. His father had not meant that takbeer was just for Wahhabis, he said. "It's for all Muslims," he said. "It is the word of truth, but it has its appropriate time."

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Assassinations Sow Discord in Syria New String of Killings Marks Violent Turn as Opposition Divisions Erupt Over Perpetrators; U.N. to Vote on SanctionsNour Malas,Wall Street Journal,4 Oct. 2011,

A series of assassinations in Syria marks a new turn in the country's uprising, as antigovernment activists trying to maintain a peaceful movement say unpredictable violence is spiraling beyond their control.

Syria's opposition, though divided on whether the killings were carried out by rogue activists seeking revenge or a ploy by the regime to discredit the protesters and stoke sectarian flames, broadly blames President Bashar al-Assad's military and security forces for driving protesters to a breaking point.

On Monday, tensions built after the burial of Sariya Hassoun, the son of Syria's Grand Mufti, who state media said was shot a day earlier during an ambush.

Syria's government said an armed terrorist group shot the 22-year-old Mr. Hassoun in the back while he drove to his university between Aleppo and Idlib with a professor. Mr. Hassoun later died of his injuries, while the professor, Mohammad al-Omar, died on the spot, state media said.

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Their deaths bring the number of what activists and the government say are targeted assassinations to at least six in the past week, mostly in the central city of Homs, Syria's third-largest city and a center of protests.

But Mr. Hassoun's death was one of the highest-profile casualties close to the regime since the protests began in March. It unleashed a wave of condemnation from government authorities, with state media mourning his loss and government supporters blaming the violence both on protesters and terrorists.

Reports of revenge and sectarian killings between Alawites—members of the same muslim sect as the president and the top leadership—and Sunnis have increased in recent months. A stalemate with Mr. Assad's forces has dragged on and opposition forces have gotten access to light weapons from a rising number of defecting soldiers. This new phase of violence has exacerbated a cycle in which government forces, citing terrorist operations, boost their operations, bringing out more protesters in turn.

A town just north of Homs, al-Rastan, has become a de facto base for defected soldiers, who activists say fight the state military and security daily.

Mr. Hassoun's father, the country's highest Sunni cleric, leads the Muslim sect to which a majority of Syrians—and opposition members—belong, so his son's killing was a turn from the pattern of Alawite assassinations. The father is viewed as an Assad supporter.

During a sermon Monday at his son's funeral that was aired on state TV, Ahmad Badreddin Hassoun accused the opposition of creating the climate for his son's killing and blamed anti-Assad Sunni clerics for allegedly issuing fatwas, or religious edicts, inciting against him.

"My brothers who were misguided and carried arms, you should have assassinated me because some clerics issued such fatwas," he said at the funeral, in Aleppo, according to the Associated Press. "Why did you kill a young man who did nothing and harmed no

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one?" The mufti added, "Those who send weapons and money will not succeed in silencing the voice of righteousness of Syria."

Meanwhile, the U.N. Security Council is set to vote Tuesday on a European draft resolution that would threaten sanctions against the Syrian regime. A tougher earlier draft was withdrawn last month after opposition from Russia, which may also veto Tuesday's vote. Moscow is calling for talks between the government and opposition.

"We can't put this off forever when the situation continues to deteriorate," a Security Council diplomat said. "It's high time for Russia to decide whether it can continue to stand by while its long-standing ally Assad continues the repression, or finally to allow a different approach to be tried."

The Syrian government blamed an armed terrorist group for the Sunday killings, as it has done repeatedly for other unrest. There have been at least 2,700 deathssince the uprisings began, according to the United Nations.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a London-based activist group, blamed Mr. Hassoun's death on "insurgents."

Mahmoud Akam, a leading Sunni cleric in Aleppo, saidin an interview that protesters in Syria had turned violent despite what appeared to be orders from their leadership to remain peaceful. "They have swapped the word with the weapon—the peaceful, democratic word for bullets," he said.

Addressing Mr. Hassoun's death, he said, "They killed him because his father, to the opposition, is with the government and is a symbol of the regime."

Some opposition activists suspected the perpetrators were rogue activists carrying out revenge killings on any sect. "The goal is…to pit people against each other," said Omar Idlibi, a spokesman for activist network the Local Coordination Committees.

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Of five other people killed in what activists described as the same organized, targeted method in the past week—in which the victims were shot by armed men in ambushes as they went mainly to or from work—three were Alawite, one was Shiite and one's affiliation was still unclear.

The victims were mainly professionals—a medical doctor, an engineer, professors and a student, echoing a wave of assassinations in Syria starting in 1979, before the government engaged in years of fighting with an Islamist insurgency led by the Muslim Brotherhood. Then, the government blamed its opponents for chaos in the country, while the opposition said the state was killing off dissent.

Mr. Idlibi said some of the Alawites killed had quietly sympathized with the protest movement, and that the government could be moving to eliminate influential dissenters while trying to pit protesters against one another and fan confusion.

"The regime has done it before and they would do it again: they'd kill their own to discredit their opponents," said Haitham Maleh, a veteran opposition leader.Mr. Maleh dismissed concerns that parts of the country could quickly slip into a civil war, the most-feared scenario for Syria's unprecedented uprising, but said that regular Syrians were arming themselves out of self defense. He cited Syrians inside the country who reported the black market price of guns having shot up ten fold. Mr. Akkam, the cleric from Aleppo, said arms were flowing into Syria from its neighbors—Turkey, Lebanon, and Iraq.

"If Syrians wanted a civil war, it would have happened a long time ago now, but people are thinking of self defense first," the 81-year old Mr. Maleh said in an interview.

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Is the Syria uprising heading towards civil war?Owen Bennett-Jones

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BBC News, on the Lebanon-Syria border4 Oct. 2011,

Syrian refugees living in Lebanon say that anti-government protesters, trying to bring down President Bashar al-Assad, are resorting increasingly to the use of force.

"There will definitely be a civil war," said one middle-aged refugee.

He was sitting amidst a group of Syrians who had all walked to Lebanon. Like the others, he did not want to be photographed or give his name.

The men, Sunni Muslims, moved from the Syrian village of Hitt, just a kilometre (0.6 mile) from the border, over the last six months. Having crossed over, they are staying with friends and relatives.

The men said that the Syrian army presence in and around Hitt meant there were now only women and young children living there.

"I am only metres from my family and my home and yet I can't reach them," one man said, the pitch of his voice rising with emotion. "All we can do is fight, no matter what the consequences."

Army attacked Last week some of the refugees made good that promise.

When some of their wives tried to cross the border, they were stopped by Syrian soldiers who insulted them, asking whether they were going to see their menfolk for sex.

Enraged, their husbands gathered a group of 15 men and that night attacked an army encampment near Hitt.

The gun battle lasted for four hours. Some bullets were fired over the border and hit the walls of Lebanese homes.

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Only two of the refugees were injured in the exchange of fire, which had no strategic significance. But it did illustrate how the opposition in Syria is increasingly willing to use arms.

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees estimates there are 3,800 Syrian refugees in Lebanon but the true number could be far higher, because many have not registered with the agency or the Lebanese authorities.

As the refugees from Hitt spoke, they looked across the border at their village which is so small it has just one mosque.

Farmers or smugglers The men chain-smoked and threaded worry beads through their finger whilst using mobile phones to constantly talk to people on the Syrian side of the border, trying to glean news as to what was happening.

"There are only two types of men in Hitt," one of the refugees said. "Those who work in the fields and those who smuggle."

Good profits can be made from moving petrol from Syria to Lebanon where it is considerably more expensive.

So which of the two occupations did he do? "Me?" he replied, a twinkle in his eyes, "I am a human rights worker."

One of the men refused to talk, saying only: "You are not giving us weapons, so what is the point of doing an interview?"

Having made his point he wandered off.

The men from Hitt said that 11 villagers - an officer and 10 conscripts - had been in the army but all had defected.

"No-one goes back to the army from leave," one refugee said. "They go to hospital and pretend to be ill."

None of the former soldiers from Hitt are fighting, however. Instead they are sitting it out in Lebanon, waiting to see what happens.

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"They are just 18 years old," one man said: "they are not going to fight."

Violent battles But in some Syrian cities, there have been violent battles between the army and defectors.

The central cities of Homs and Rastan have emerged as the places putting up the most armed resistance to the regime.

The government reasserted its control in Rastan on Saturday after five days of intense fighting. There are reports of frequent armed clashes in Homs.

Most of the defecting soldiers who have managed to leave Syria have gone to Turkey where they have formed a Free Syrian Army.

It's not clear how many men the army has under its command or whether it has any prospect of becoming an effective fighting force.

From the very start of the anti-government protests in Syria more than six months ago, there was an armed and violent element in the opposition. The question is to what extent that element has grown?

Many protestors insist they want their revolution to remain a peaceful one.

Their difficulty is that so far, in spite of considerable loss of life, there is no sign of an end to the stalemate between the forces of change and continuity in Syria.

Syrian officials say over 800 police and soldiers have been killed. That compares with over 2,700 civilians, estimated by the United Nations.

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Syria accused of torturing relatives of overseas activistsAmnesty International report also details more than 30 cases of intimidation of activists around worldSam Jones,Guardian,3 Oct. 2011,

The Syrian government has been accused of torturing the relatives of Syrians protesting overseas in an attempt to silence international criticism of President Bashar al-Assad's regime.

The charges are made in a report from Amnesty International – The Long Reach of the Mukhabaraat (the name of the Syrian secret police) – which details more than 30 cases of direct and indirect intimidation of activists in Canada, Chile, France, Germany, Spain, Sweden, the UK and US.

One dissident, now living in Germany, told Amnesty that his brother had been arrested, held for a month and tortured by Syrian military intelligence because of his sibling's anti-regime stance. In Sweden, another pro-reform activist said her activities on the internet and the streets of Stockholm had attracted the attention of the Syrian authorities.

At the end of May, she received a letter in Arabic using her maiden name, which warned her: "Keep quiet or neither you, nor your family in Syria is safe." Not long after, her brother was arrested in Damascus, had both his hands broken and was forced to promise that the family would disown his sister.

Anti-regime activists in several countries have reported being harassed, intimidated and even assaulted.

Five weeks ago in Paris, a 35-year-old Syrian engineer and two fellow demonstrators were attacked by a group of men and women carrying pro-Assad flags. They say they were told by French police officers that no action could be taken against two of their assailants because they held diplomatic passports. Later that night, according to the engineer, more anti-regime protesters were attacked with baseball bats by the same group.

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In the UK, the Foreign Office has raised concerns of intimidation on at least two occasions, while in the US, where concerns about Syrian diplomatic staff photographing and filming protesters have already led the state department to summon the country's ambassador to Washington, there have been similar reports of intimidation.

According to the Amnesty study, the elderly parents of a US-based Syrian were badly beaten and locked in their bathroom in the city of Homs after their son – a pianist and composer – was filmed performing at a pro-reform demonstration in front of the White House. In Illinois, an expatriate Syrian activist reported receiving a menacing email after one of her Facebook friends in Syria was arrested for protesting at his university and being forced to open his account on the social network.

It read: "These words are directed at you, you agent, you traitor. Your messages have come to us … We are waiting for you to come to the airport so we can show you what is good for you and for what you are doing. We will make an example out of you."

British-based demonstrators say they have also been filmed while protesting, phoned and visited at home by Syrian embassy staff, and threatened with death. One protester said Mukhabaraat officers raided his mother's home in Damascus, asking questions about him and eventually forcing her to flee the country.

Another British-based protester, Ghias Aljundi, told the Guardian he had been called on his mobile in June by someone claiming to be from the embassy. "He said: 'Don't think you are protected. We can get you anyway. It's better for you to stop what you are doing. You are a traitor'." Aljundi added: "I didn't feel comfortable at all. I know they're not going to do anything to me, but I immediately had to call my brothers to see what was happening [in Syria].

"The regime is completely morally bankrupt and so they can do anything."

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Allegations of menacing behaviour by Syrian embassy staff in London have also prompted the Foreign Office to raise the issue of intimidation and harassment of protesters and their families on at least two occasions during meetings with the Syrian ambassador, who gave assurances that his staff were not involved in such activities. He said he would take action were evidence to emerge to the contrary.

The FO is also liaising with Scotland Yard and urging demonstrators to report any evidence of harassment or other crimes by embassy staff to the Metropolitan police.

Scotland Yard said it was aware of the allegations of intimidation and is investigating a claim of harassment made on 28 August.

Amnesty is calling on the Syrian government to immediately end its harassment of protesters and their families, and is asking the international community to make sure such intimidation does not go unchecked.

"We look to host governments to act on credible allegations of abuses without waiting for formal complaints," said Neil Sammonds, Amnesty's Syrian researcher.

"Many of the people we have spoken to are too scared of what could happen to them to make formal complaints with the police. We would expect that any official found responsible for such acts should be prosecuted, or – if diplomatic immunity prevents that – asked to leave the country."

No one at the Syrian embassy in London could be reached for comment on the allegations.

Despite the apparent intimidation, UK-based Syrians are planning to stage an "I am not afraid" demonstration outside the Syrian embassy on Tuesday morning.

During the protest, they will hold placards inscribed with their names and home towns.

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Economic relations between Turkey and Syria Hasan Kanbolat,Today's Zaman,3 Oct. 2011,

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdo?an is headed this week to Hatay, to visit the tent cities accommodating Syrian refugees. This visit appears to mark the start of sanctions that will be placed on Syria by Ankara in the coming period.

Plans to open up these tent cities to local and foreign media are under way. Up until now, Turkey has kept the tent cities closed off to the media, in order not to “bother” Damascus and not provide a voice for the Syrian opposition in Turkey. But now in ?stanbul, there is an office for the Syrian opposition being set up. It is expected that it will be through this office that the Syrian National Council will be formed.

As for the West, it has already begun implementing economic sanctions against Syria. The financial holdings of some of the top-level members of Syrian society have been frozen. The soft belly of the Syrian economy is the energy sector, and sanctions against petrol exports out of Syria have already begun. In order for the economic sanctions to prove successful, it is very important that Turkey participates. But thoughts are now focused on economic sanctions that would penalize only the leadership, and not the people of Syria. In addition to all this, it is important to keep in mind that Syria is Turkey's door to overland routes into the Middle East. Trade done by Turkey via roadways into the Middle East all done through Syria, which is why Turkey is taking hesitant steps when it comes to economic sanctions aimed at Syria.

In order to be able to analyze relations between Turkey and Syria post March 2011, we need to take a look at the recent history of economic relations between the two countries. The accords that place economic relations between Turkey and Syria on a legal foundation are the “Preventing Double Taxation” and “Reciprocal Stimulus and Protection of Investments” accords. The most

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important underpinning of the legal foundation that binds these two counties, however, is the “Turkey-Syria Free Trade Accord.” What this accord presents is a 12-year period, during which industrial products exported from Turkey to Syria will be free from customs taxes in increments. As for products entering Turkey from Syria, they were made free entirely from customs taxes from the date the accord was put into implementation.

With regards to foreign trade, the volume between Turkey and Syria rose from $824.1 million in 2003 to $1.752 billion in 2009 and $1.844 billion in 2010. Both countries had aimed to see the volume of trade rise to $5 billion in 2012. Turkey's main exports to Syria include cement, electric energy, insulated wire, cables, fiber optic cable, synthetic fiber, plastic tubing, iron-steel construction accessories, iron-steel rods, pipes and hoses. As for important goods imported into Turkey from Syria, these include petrol oils, raw petrol, natural calcium, natural aluminum calcium phosphate, phosphate chalks, cotton yarns, and wheat.

The most important dual-sided plan of the Turkish-Syrian energy cooperation is exploration, production and processing in Syria's petrol and natural gas fields. At the same time, the most important multi-sided plan within the Turkish-Syrian energy cooperation is the “Arab Natural Gas Pipeline” project which aims to see the transport of energy resources from the Middle East to Europe. It is also important to note that Syria purchases around 1.5 billion kilowatts of electricity from Turkey on an annual basis.

Turkish companies active in the metal, food, cement and open sea fishing sectors of the Syrian economy have made total investments of around $223 million.

According to results from the Oct. 13, 2009 Aleppo and Gaziantep High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council, Turkish-Syrian customs were to move to a single window system. In other words, Turkish and Syrian controls at the border dividing the two countries were to be combined into one spot. In addition, the no man's zone between the two countries was to be eliminated. Currently, five out of seven border crossing points between

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Turkey and Syria are functional, with plans to make the other two border crossings active in the near future. From the date of Sept. 18, 2009 onwards, visa requirements between Turkey and Syria were lifted, and visa-free visits were put into implementation. Thus, citizens holding Turkish and Syrian passports were able to make reciprocal visits to one another's countries, provided that stays did not exceed 90 days. While the number of Syrian tourists coming to Turkey in 2003 was 154,000, it rose to 500,000 in 2010.

Following the events which have unfolded in Syria since March 2011, small and mid-sized amounts of capital from Syria began to enter Turkish banks. Large amounts of deposits and assets are being accepted through ?stanbul. Money deposited into ?stanbul from Syria, however, is generally traceable back to Hatay these days.

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Tiny Qatar’s Big Plans May Change MideastMeghan L. O’SullivanBloomberg,October 03, 2011,

Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Qatar, a country of fewer than 2 million people set on a peninsula smaller than Connecticut, seems an unlikely candidate to become a regional power. Yet with little fanfare and less warning, tiny Qatar has emerged as one of the Middle East’s most influential states.

As the U.S. struggles to understand and predict the new contours of the region, it would be wise to pursue even closer ties to this regional maverick.

Even with its demographic and geographic limits, Qatar has several assets that turn out to be in short supply elsewhere in the Middle East and to be of strategic value, given the tumult in the region.

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First, it is home to al-Jazeera, the Arabic-language news network that has transformed how Arabs get their news. Many give the television channel more credit for spurring on the Arab Spring than Facebook or Twitter. By bringing the revolutions into the homes of every Arab, al-Jazeera drew regional attention to early events in Tunisia and helped boost the number of Egyptians on the streets from the thousands to the hundreds of thousands. Al-Jazeera gives Qatar “soft power” well beyond its size.

Second, Qatar has resources. Last month, the International Monetary Fund released data demonstrating that Qatar is the richest country in the world. With a per-capita income of more than $88,000, Qatar’s citizens are better off than those of Luxembourg and are almost twice as rich as those of the U.S. This wealth -- and the annual growth rate of 16 percent that goes with it -- is a reflection of Qatar’s vast riches.

Qatar’s natural-gas reserves of more than 900 trillion cubic feet are the third-largest in the world, and the country is reaping the benefits of an ambitious program to monetize those resources. Estimates suggest earnings from its liquefied natural-gas in 2011 will increase by more than 50 percent from last year.

Finally, Qatar has comparatively uncomplicated politics, a rarity in the Middle East today. The country is run by Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, an emir who, in his late 50s, is decades younger than his counterparts in the gulf. While advised by a powerful prime minister (who is also a cousin), the emir is the ultimate authority in Qatar, streamlining decision-making. Partially on account of its small size, wealth and security service, Qatar has avoided the political turmoil of some other Middle Eastern states. Its government feels -- and is -- comparatively secure.

While the domestic politics of many other countries in the Arab world are forcing the attention of their leaders inward, Qatar has marshaled its assets and has embarked on an aggressive plan to shape the region.

In recent years, Qatar focused its energies on being a neutral party facilitating diplomatic compromises. It worked diligently to help

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broker the accord between Fatah and Hamas; it helped resolve a Lebanese impasse over the formation of the government in 2008; it even gets credit from the Sudanese for assisting in a political understanding over Darfur.

Such behavior was consistent with the obvious needs of a small country in a dangerous and difficult part of the world. Qatar sought to establish relationships with as many countries and parties as possible, and endeavored to prove its indispensability without ever taking sides on the region’s many sensitive matters.

But since the onset of the Arab Spring, Qatar has adopted a more aggressive and potentially more risky foreign policy. It no longer seems satisfied with balancing its relationships with the greater powers -- be they the U.S., Iran or Saudi Arabia. Instead, it sees a window to steer and shape events, senses its comparative strengths, and has embarked upon a series of bold endeavors.

In Libya, Qatar was the first Arab state to vocally endorse military intervention against Muammar Qaddafi, prodding the Arab League to make the statement that ultimately gave the North Atlantic Treaty Organization political cover for its support of the revolutionaries. Going beyond rhetoric, Qatar provided six mirage jet planes to the fight -- offering Arab credibility to the military operation. In Syria, Qatar has lent the weight of al-Jazeera to those seeking to end the Assad regime.

Even the priorities of its $100 billion sovereign-wealth fund, the Qatar Investment Authority, have changed. Formerly focused on trophy investments such as Harrods Department Store Co. or “passive” ones intended primarily to collect returns, Qatar is now turning to strategic investments in companies and countries with which it intends to build cooperative ventures and wield influence. For example, electricity-hungry Qatar bought a stake in Spain’s largest power utility, Iberdrola SA, for more than $2 billion earlier this year.

Qatar seems committed to shaping the political and economic outcomes that will emerge from the regional volatility it is helping create. Already, it is actively aiding the Libyan National

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Transitional Council as it thinks through reforming that country’s national oil company, and there is talk of Qatar helping Libya explore its gas reserves. A Qatari-Libyan gas partnership would help Qatar address one of its primary strategic worries: the loss of markets for its gas in Europe.

In Egypt, Qatar has planted a flag with the announcement it intends to invest $10 billion there in the coming years. And in Sudan, Qatar will play a role in enforcing the new “Doha Document for Peace in Darfur,” which was accepted by Sudanese parties as the framework for conflict resolution.

The key question for the U.S. is what does a region with a strong Qatari guiding hand look like? What kind of Arab world is Qatar seeking to achieve?

The answers aren’t entirely evident. One could make the case that a more active Qatar, which is already home to the U.S. military’s Central Command, is good for American interests. Qatar -- with its large investments in Western-style higher education, its relatively pragmatic approach to Israel, and its (still-too-modest) allowance of women’s participation in municipal elections -- might be a moderating force in the region.

Yet one might make an equally compelling case that Qatar has little interest in political liberalization in the Middle East (given its own closed system and its support for Saudi troops in Bahrain) and that its activism is grounded in a desire to supplant global energy markets with state-to-state bilateral deals. After all, Qatar’s long-term well-being rests on global gas consumption and the nation’s ability to capture highly competitive markets. Although Qatar has shown little interest in Iran’s entreaties for the formation of an OPEC-like gas cartel, a change of heart in this direction could harm America’s allies, if not America itself, which is almost self- sufficient in terms of natural gas.

A year ago, such questions would have been for curious minds or academic interest. Today, with the Arab world in tumult and Qatar in high gear, it is of high strategic importance.

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The U.S. is, no doubt, trying to do more than read the tea leaves -- or rather, the coffee grounds -- in the region. It needs to build and strengthen new strategic partnerships with regional actors, especially those that have the resources and imagination to shape events beyond their borders. Qatar should be on or near the top of its list. U.S.-Qatari relations are cordial and positive. But the warmth and strength of this relationship has been limited by Qatar’s need to balance its ties with Iran, with which it shares an enormous gas field.

In recent months, the small emirate has moved away from a foreign policy based on hedging, toward a bolder and riskier approach. This seems to butt up against, or even challenge, some of Iran’s most central interests. Qatar’s encouragement of the revolution against Bashar al-Assad in Syria and its support of the status quo in Bahrain are two cases in point. This shift -- while opening Qatar to a possible Iranian backlash -- could provide the U.S. with an opening to strengthen ties.

What can the U.S. do? First, it might build on the meeting between President Barack Obama and the emir in April, and schedule more high-visibility encounters between U.S. and Qatari officials. This may seem insignificant to Americans, but such sessions hold great importance for Qataris, who prize prestige and recognition.

Second, the U.S. should trade in its ambivalence about Qatar’s regional diplomacy in exchange for a warm embrace of it. Qatar’s tendency to have relationships with everyone -- friend and foe, including the Taliban when it ruled Afghanistan -- has historically made the U.S. uncomfortable. But in a transformed region, Qatar’s Rolodex may allow it to shape the region -- ideally with the quiet support of America.

Third, the U.S. should work with Qatar, and possibly other Gulf states, to craft economic support packages to post- revolutionary states. The U.S. might lend expertise and organization in Egypt and Libya, while Qatar foots more of the bill.

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Finally, the U.S. should cultivate greater links between Qatar and American businesses. Qatar plans $100 billion in infrastructure projects in the run-up to its hosting the 2022 soccer World Cup; many U.S. companies could profit from these ambitions. This is how the fabric of closer bilateral ties is woven, and the payoff goes well beyond corporate profits.

(Meghan L. O’Sullivan, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and former deputy national security adviser, is a Bloomberg View columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.)

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Post-Assad Syria less likely to go Islamist than Egypt, say expertsThe Daily Caller (American),10/04/2011,

Islamists are far less likely to come to power in Syria than in Egypt if the regime of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad ultimately falls, respected Middle East experts tell The Daily Caller.

“I think it would be very hard … for Islamists to seize control of the country and turn it into some sort of worst-case scenario,” Andrew Tabler, the Next Generation Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and the author of the recently released book “In the Lion’s Den: An Eyewitness Account of Washington’s Battle with Syria,” told TheDC.

“Does it mean that [Islamists] would have no role in it? No, they probably would,” Tabler, who spent seven years living in Syria, added, “but it would be much more watered-down as a result of the divisions inside the Sunni community as well as the fact that about a full quarter of the Syrian population — a little over a quarter — are minorities.”

Renowned Middle East scholar Barry Rubin, director of the Global Research in International Relations Center and author of “The Truth About Syria,” was not quite as categorical in rejecting

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the possibility of an Islamist takeover of Syria, but told TheDC that it was certainly more unlikely a scenario than in Egypt.

“There is a very real chance of an Islamist takeover but it is lower than in Egypt,” he said. “The Syrians are more urbanized, more secular, and most important of all far more diverse. Remember that in Egypt 90 percent are Sunni Muslim Arabs while in Syria that figure is about 60 percent. The Syrian Brotherhood has never been as strong as its Egyptian counterpart.”

This analysis meshes with what American Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford told TheDC in September, that the opposition in Syria was more “pluralistic” and that Islamists were not particularly powerful and organized. One reason the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria is weaker than in Egypt is that it was decimated by the late Syrian dictator Hafez al-Assad. In the city of Hama in 1982, for instance, he ordered a massacre that killed at least least 10,000 Syrians (and possibly multiples of that) under the pretext of rooting out the Islamist threat to his regime. (RELATED: TheDC Interview: US ambassador to Syria on what comes after Assad)

But even if not controlled by Islamists, would a post-Assad Syrian regime likely be more favorable to the United States than the the current terrorist-sponsoring, Iranian-aligned Syrian dictatorship?

“If a non-Islamist regime emerges it would be less hostile to the United States but whether that’s by a small or significant margin is open to question,” Rubin argued.

“There is some real anti-Americanism in the opposition. The Obama Administration has put the Untied States into the position of being regarded by many Syrians as protector of the Assad regime. It’s one thing to have that happen in Egypt — a government that was allied with America — but why in Syria, the most anti-American of all Arab regimes?”

Tabler said that he thinks that a post-Assad regime would be less likely to support the terrorist group Hamas, as the Assad regime currently does.

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“I think they would be more hostile to Hamas. It would politically cost them a lot more I think than the current arrangement,” he explained.

“But that doesn’t mean that the Syrian opposition doesn’t care about the Palestinian issue. They do of course. They want a resolution to this. But they also know that this issue has been used to justify one of the most tyrannical regimes in the Middle East and to ruin their lives, essentially, so I don’t think they’re going to want to do that after Assad leaves.”

One fear, however, is that Syria would erupt in civil war in the vacuum left by Assad. While Ambassador Ford said such a prospect is a possibility, even if not an inevitability, Tabler said he finds the scenario unlikely.

“I think most of the time it’s going to be fighting of the regime as it goes out,” he said. “After that, if the conditions were right, then there would be an ability to come together. You know, they are already suffering extensively in terms of the economy.”

It goes without saying that before a post-Assad Syria can emerge, Syria’s tyrannical tormentor has to leave or be forced from power. Since Syrians began revolting against Assad’s rule earlier this year, his regime has killed more than 2,700 Syrians and injured many more, according to the United Nations Commission on Human Rights. The question remains: Will Assad be able to ultimately hold on to power through force?

“I think it’s very hard for Assad to ultimately solve this. The numbers just aren’t with him. I mean, Syria has one of the youngest populations in the Middle East,” Tabler explained. “All of those [young] people are out in the street, and they’re hitting the job market and he just hasn’t launched reforms that can accommodate them in anyway and now they are calling for the downfall of the regime.”

Rubin said that while “nobody knows” whether Assad can hold on, the situation in Syria is only likely to become more violent.

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“One thing is for certain: looking at other dictator having been hung, put on trial, or fleeing into exile, the family of President Bashar al-Assad and his allies will not go quietly. Only if they are forced out of power at gunpoint will they be displaced,” he said. “The wider problem is that the government does have a strong base of support among the Alawite minority, Christians, and some Sunni Muslims. These people are worried about being targeted by a revolution, even with the possibility of massacres against the first two groups, which comprise roughly one-quarter of the population.”

“In other words,” he concluded, “the battle will continue for months, will probably become more violent, and the outcome is not certain.”

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Yedioth Ahronoth: 'US Senate approves appointment of Syria envoy Ford'..

Jerusalem Post: 'Turkey’s house of cards'..

NYTIMES: 'Syrians Abroad Report Harassment and Intimidation'..

Aid to the Church in Need: 'Lebanon: Maronite Church fears for Christians in Syria'.. NPR: 'Syrian Exiles Fear Long Reach Of Secret Police'..

Reuters: 'Investigation blames Cyprus leader for arms blast'..

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