Sarkozy visit to Damascus signals thaw in relationsIan Black, Middle East editor

Fri. 1 Apr. 2011

CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR

· Can Assad thread the needle in Syria?....................................1

REUTERS

· Assad’s tough Syrian gamble may pay off ……………...…..2

DAILY TELEGRAPH

· In the shadow of Assad……………………………..……….6

· Syria braced for Friday showdown …………………………7

INDEPENDENT

· Assad in tentative moves to placate Syrian protesters……....8

TURMOIL

· Assad's juggling act amid the turmoil ……………………....9

WASHINGTON POST

· Syria’s ‘reformer’……………………………………..……13

· Critics say Syrian leader may be squandering goodwill in face of protest movement………………………………..…15

HAARETZ

· Assad's 'j'accuse'………………………………………...….19

· Turkey to UN: We seized illegal Iran arms shipment en route to Syria……………………………………………………..24

LATIMES

· Obama's nuanced foreign policy evident in Libya vs. Syria.27

GUARDIAN

· We in Israel welcome the Arab spring…By Peres………....30

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Can Assad thread the needle in Syria?

Bashar Assad has praised democracy in the past. Will he engineer a new Syria -- or revert to his father's brutal oppression of opponents?

John Yemma, Editor

Christian Science Monitor,

March 31, 2011

Henry Kissinger called Hafez Assad the shrewest Arab leader, a man who spun the 1967 and 1973 Syrian defeats at the hands of Israel into power and prominence for him and Syria.

As former Monitor correspondent Robin Wright noted in her book "Dreams and Shadows: The Future of the Middle East," "The primacy of survival and a legacy of tyranny were Assad's bequests to his son," the current president, Bashar Assad.

A London-trained opthamologist, the younger Assad never seemed destined to rule -- and certainly not with the iron fist his of his father, who harbored terrorists and ordered the massacre of regime opponents at Hama in 1982. In his 2000 inaugural address, Assad called for democracy and free speech. When that led to dissent within a couple of years, however, political life was shut down.

Democracy advocates reappeared a few years later, only to be clamped down on again. Now he is faced with an unprecedented uprising. Part of him knows the value of freedom. Part of him reflects his father's instinct for self-preservation.

If he can maneuver Syria toward greater democracy without the sort of violent spasm Libya is going through, he will be the shrewest Arab leader of

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Assad’s tough Syrian gamble may pay off

By Yara Bayoumy

Reuters

1 Apr. 2011,

BEIRUT - Syrian President Bashar Assad has a better chance of surviving in power than the fallen authoritarian rulers of Egypt and Tunisia, provided he moves soon from repression to reform.

Assad has so far followed the well-worn script tried unsuccessfully in several Arab states.

His security forces have cracked down on pro-democracy protests that began in Syria two weeks ago and he has brought supporters out on the streets to declare their loyalty.

He has given a speech blaming foreign conspirators for the unrest, but unlike Tunisia's Zine Al Abidine Ben Ali and Egypt's Hosni Mubarak, he has made no concessions to reform.

Banking on the loyalty of his pervasive security forces, muted criticism from the West and support from Arab Gulf monarchies and regional Shiite ally Iran, Assad has gambled he can ride out the revolutionary wave sweeping the Arab world.

But unless he implements serious reforms - from lifting a decades-old emergency law, to granting political and media freedoms - he may get only a temporary reprieve and could soon face the fate of the ousted Egyptian and Tunisian leaders.

“Assad shouldn’t sleep on silk sheets,” said Nabil Boumonsef, a commentator with Lebanon’s Annahar newspaper, warning against complacency.

“He has to implement amazing reforms to ride out the wave [of discontent]. He should not take risks.”

The protests that began in the southern, mostly Sunni city of Deraa and later spread to other cities including Latakia and Hama, first called for more freedom and less corruption, becoming more directly critical of Assad as deaths mounted.

But for now, they do not seem to pose a serious challenge to Assad’s 11-year rule.

Pandora’s box

Syria borders on Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and Israel, and is thus entangled in a number of regional conflicts.

Neighbours have held back from criticising Assad for fear that sectarian conflict could break out in Syria and spread to their own countries.

There is much resentment against Assad’s minority Alawite community, an offshoot of Shiite Islam, among Syria’s Sunni Muslim majority. Assad has favoured his own sect in distributing power, wealth and business contracts.

Playing on these concerns, Syria has said it was the target of a foreign plot to sow sectarian strife and the 45-year-old, British-educated president has in recent days received messages of support from Gulf rulers.

“If Syria explodes, Iraq will explode, Jordan will explode and Lebanon will go down the drain. We could witness a Sunni-Alawite civil war that would immediately spread in the Arab world as Sunni-Shiite,” said political scientist Hilal Khashan of the American University in Beirut.

“Syria will open a Pandora’s box of troubles.”

The United States, entangled in prolonged conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, and now in an air campaign against Libyan leader Muammar Qadhafi, will be reluctant to take a hardline.

Washington described Assad’s speech on Wednesday, in which he failed to spell out reform plans and justified the use of force against demonstrators, as “lacking substance”. But it said it was up to the Syrian people to judge the speech.

Washington has blamed Syria for meddling in Lebanon and criticised its support for Iran, Hamas and Hizbollah. But a US ambassador returned to Damascus in January after a nearly six-year absence, in an effort to lure the Syrians away from an Iranian-led anti-Israeli axis.

Some analysts say Gulf monarchies, the United States and Israel all have an interest in seeing Assad remain in power to safeguard fragile regional stability.

“The Gulf states want him to stay, the US may not like him but it doesn’t want to see him go [for fears of civil war], and the Israelis see him as the best Arab dictator,” Khashan said.

Loyal security forces, fragmented opposition

Unlike in Tunisia and Egypt, where the army refused to heed presidential orders to use lethal force to contain protesters, Syrian security forces have so far shown no qualms in firing live ammunition to quell demonstrations.

Rights groups say 61 people have been killed. Leading opposition figure Maamoun Homsi told Reuters on Sunday he had the names of 105 dead.

Much of the security apparatus elite are from Assad’s close-knit Alawite group and would be loath to see power taken away from them and handed to Sunnis.

“Even if the protests spread, the regime has an impressive machine of coercion. They can deal with it,” Khashan told Reuters.

“Casualties were extremely high against a small number of protesters, so that tells you about the determination of authorities in crushing protests. Assad knows he has the security forces on his side.”

Syria has a history of ruthless suppression of dissent. The president’s father, Hafez Assad, wiped out an armed Islamist uprising in Hama in 1982, killing an estimated 20,000 people.

That may help explain why protesters in places such as the port city of Latakia and Hama have numbered a few hundred and sometimes a few dozen, unlike the huge crowds seen in uprisings in Tunisia, Yemen, Egypt and even Bahrain.

Protests have also abated in recent days, although there was a rally in Latakia following Assad’s speech and an opposition figure also reported a demonstration in Deraa, which Reuters could not independently verify.

Syria has also stepped up the arrest of dissidents that began during the Tunisia and Egypt uprisings. While some have been freed, there are reports of mass arrests in recent days.

Beyond well-known civic and human rights activists, lawyers and journalists, the opposition is not clearly known nor are their strategies or capacity to organise mass demonstrations.

“The security forces are closely tied to the elite and the demonstrations are rather limited in scope, but all of this might change,” said political commentator Rami Khoury.

Online activists have called for protests on a “Friday of Dignity”. The world will be watching, but the momentum may not be with the protesters.

“The time is not yet ripe for change in Syria,” Khashan said.

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In the shadow of Assad

Dictatorial rule and a bloody recent history should not blind us to the riches of Syria, says Simon Scott Plummer

Simon Scott Plummer,

Daily Telegraph,

31 Mar. 2011,

The modern state of Syria, now the focus of so much Western interest, lies on one of the great crossroads of history. Babylonians, Hittites, Assyrians, Chaldeans, Persians, Greeks, Romans, Byzantines, Arabs, Ottomans and the French have all made their mark.

This extraordinary procession of civilisations has left the country with an astonishing range of monuments and a mosaic of religious beliefs and ethnic groups. The majority of the population are Sunni Muslims but there are Shia Alawite, Druze and Ismaili minorities, the first having run Syria since Hafez al-Assad seized power in 1970. Kurds, Armenians, Turkmen and Circassians add to the mix.

The Christian presence is diminishing but even more varied. The skyline of the Jdeide quarter of Aleppo is punctuated by the domes of Maronite, Greek Catholic, Greek Orthodox, Gregorian Armenian and Syrian Catholic churches. In the village of Maalula, Arabic has only recently replaced Aramaic, which was spoken by Christ, as the language of communication. And in Straight Street in Damascus, you can visit the supposed house of Ananias, where Paul took refuge after his conversion to Christianity, eventually escaping the wrath of the Jews in a basket lowered from the city walls.

One year, my family and I were in the country at Easter, allowing us to take part in a ceremony in Tartus memorable for its length, almost continuous chanting and the gorgeous red and gold vestments of the celebrant. The congregation, who are in communion with Rome, were in their Sunday best. Coming out of the church, we were serenaded by a party of scouts and guides playing brass instruments and drums. As we left, they were launching into a simplified version of Beethoven’s Ode to Joy. Such friendly human contacts are the hallmark of a visit to Syria.

As well as its demographic mix, history has bequeathed to Syria an extraordinary variety of monuments. Many will be familiar with the Roman ruins at Palmyra and Apamea, but these are spring chickens compared with the Bronze Age sites of Ebla, Mari and Ugarit.

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Syria braced for Friday showdown

Syria is braced for a violent showdown in its most restive cities on Friday as opposition activists vow to defy Bashar al-Assad, their increasingly intransigent president, by bringing hundreds of thousands of supporters onto the streets.

Adrian Blomfield,

Daily Telegraph,

31 Mar. 2011,

As night fell on Thursday, more than 60 military vehicles were seen driving into the southern city of Deraa, where scores of protesters have died at the hands of Mr Assad's security forces since unrest against his regime erupted a fortnight ago.

By word of mouth and on the internet, calls have gone out for a major show of force by protesters in Deraa and other towns and cities across Syria amid mounting anger at the president's refusal to offer anything other than token concessions.

Confounding expectations that he would announce reforms and lift Syria's hated state of emergency, Mr Assad appeared in public for the first time on Wednesday to denounce the protesters as foreign-backed conspirators, paving the way for a violent confrontation after noon prayers on Friday.

The uncompromising address delighted MPs, who praised their president of 11 years with outbursts of apparently spontaneous poetry, but left many Syrians aghast.

Shortly after he finished speaking, thousands took to the streets of the coastal city of Latakia, the scene of earlier bloodshed. In an ominous indication of what could be to come, they immediately came under fire.

According to reports that began to emerge from the city, which has been sealed off by the security forces, up to 25 people may have been killed.

"People were furious after they watched Assad's speech and they came on to the streets to peacefully vent their anger," said a Syrian opposition activist. "But immediately they came under fire from the security forces and from unidentified people in passing cars. We are still trying to establish the death toll, but it was many dead and many wounded."

There were also fears for the safety of a woman, seen on live pictures on state television, who dodged security to press a piece of paper to the side of Mr Assad's car as it drove through adoring crowds. With a scuffle seemingly about to break out, the broadcast was suddenly cut and replaced with pictures of an unidentified cityscape accompanied by music.

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Assad in tentative moves to placate Syrian protesters

Catrina Stewart

Independent,

1 Apr. 2011,

Syria's President Bashar al-Assad has taken tentative steps towards defusing popular opposition to his 11-year rule by promising to investigate the deaths of protesters and to look into lifting a decades-old emergency law.

But the move comes a day after Mr Assad dashed hopes of reform when he delivered a defiant speech, blaming recent protests on "conspirators" in the pay of foreign states.

Mr Assad's latest pledges, which fall short of actual reform, appear aimed at buying time and are expected to do little to convince pro-democracy protesters that the President is any more committed to sweeping changes in the Arab state, one of the most autocratic in the region, than he was a day earlier.

Protesters are preparing for mass demonstrations later today, dubbing it Martyrs' Day, in a show of popular dissent that many fear will provoke the regime into a heavy-handed crackdown.

Since protests erupted in Syria two weeks ago, human rights groups estimate that more than 60 have been killed by loyalist forces in the towns of Deraa on the Jordanian border, and the port of Latakia, the flashpoints of the protests. Opposition activists say the death toll is nearer 200.

While Mr Assad has acknowledged that he has been slow to initiate reform, he has strongly hinted in recent interviews that he will not allow the democracy movement that is sweeping across the Middle East to dictate the pace.

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Assad's juggling act amid the turmoil

SYRIA, in contrast to many other regional dictatorial states, is unlikely to fall further into a crisis of revolution or civil conflict.

Jonathan Cheng

The Australian

April 01, 2011

Even though demonstrations and protests against the Assad regime have dominated the headlines as of late, internal and external factors strongly favour Bashar al-Assad, the current President, staying at the helm.

The dynamic duo of popular respect and fear for the regime ensures the support of a large majority of the populace. The current regime's pragmatic foreign policy orientation dictates acquiescence of neighbours and the wider international community towards whatever action Assad deems necessary.

If anything, one might even argue that the recent Middle East turmoil may be giving Assad the leeway he needs to pursue economic and infrastructural reform, at the expense of Syrian hardliners who have sought to prevent the country from moving in a liberalising direction.

Even though the minority Alawite sect (8 to 10 per cent) is considered the strongest pillar of his regime, both Assad and his predecessor and father, Hafiz al-Assad, succeeded in building a support base among the majority Sunnis.

By granting Sunni urbanites significant leeway in the economic sphere, and also avenues for advancement in the state structure, a tacit Alawite-Sunni contract was formed. In addition, as a secular Baathist regime, the Assad regime has avoided playing the "religion card" too much.

This, combined with its co-opting of other religious groups into the military and economic elite, has allowed Assad's regime to be much more resistant to inter-religious tension than some other regional countries.

In Bahrain, for instance, the Sunni al-Khalifa family subjected the Shi'ite majority to discrimination, by actively favouring the minority Sunni segments of society. The repercussions there, as we see today, have been a large uprising against the state.

However, such support for the regime is intermingled with fear of the security apparatus. Unlike in Egypt or Tunisia, Syrians can pointedly remember a time and place where the Assads turned the army against the populace: Hama.

In 1982, Hafiz al-Assad ordered the Syrian army to bombard this city indiscriminately, resulting in a victory over the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood but also the deaths of 10,000-30,000 Syrian nationals. This fear will make any mass uprising unlikely.

With foreign policy, Assad's Syria has continued to act in a pragmatic and informed fashion, ensuring both domestic and external support for its position. Unlike Hosni Mubarak's Egypt, it maintained its position as part of the "resistance" axis against Israeli and American aggression, justifying its so-called leadership in the pan-Arab struggle against international Zionism. Syrian nationals, as such, are generally satisfied with the regime's foreign orientation.

On the flip side, Syria has also acted cautiously enough to garner sufficient respect and understanding even from its foes. The US and Israel, while often critical of Syria's support for resistance (or "terrorist") groups, see "ideological" Iran as a much greater threat.

Even if Assad's base is to weaken, we will not see an intervention similar to that of Libya, where both conservative Arab and Western actors have taken their chance to try to get rid of Muammar Gaddafi.

There is also the question: "If not Assad, then who?" It is generally understood that within Syrian politics, Assad stands as a moderate, if not a liberal. Since his ascension to the "throne" in 2000, his actions have generally been limited by two concerns.

First, he had to consolidate his rule at the centre against potential opponents, most notably some of his father's key advisers and hardline family members. Secondly, and in tandem with this, he had to react to two national security threats; the American entrenchment in his backyard, Iraq, and the Israeli war against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

In this context, Assad was pushed to a more extreme position than he would have liked, in order to appease the hardliners back home in Damascus. Since 2008, with a fading and weakening American presence and an empowered Hezbollah in Lebanon, we have seen what Assad's true intentions are.

He does seem to be pushing for a gradual liberalisation of the economy, warmer ties with neighbours, and even negotiations with Israel. Domestically, these protests might therefore be the plank on which Assad can push reforms across.

With all these issues in mind, it is clear that there is neither the international impetus nor domestic will to push for a change in government.

Protest marches and demonstrations will not match the scale or mass achieved in Egypt, Tunisia, Bahrain and Yemen. Some reforms seem to be forthcoming, and considering the alternatives, it would be best for the limited opposition to accept what they can get.

The proposed changes in Assad's government, while in effect minor, considering the concentration of power in the presidency and security services, is still a step forward. Whether or not one believes Bashar al-Assad is a reformer, it is clear there are hardliners in the Syrian ruling establishment willing to use force.

If they win out, due to "unreasonable" demands or the increasing use of violence by protesters, one might see a bloodbath in Syria, with no international assistance to save them.

Jonathan Cheng is based at the Centre for Arab & Islamic Studies, Australian National University and the University of New South Wales at the Australian Defence Force Academy

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Syria’s ‘reformer’

By Charles Krauthammer,

Washington Post,

Thursday, March 31,

Many of the members of Congress of both parties who have gone to Syria in recent months have said they believe he’s a reformer.

— Hillary Clinton on Bashar al-Assad, March 27

Few things said by this administration in its two years can match this one for moral bankruptcy and strategic incomprehensibility.

First, it’s demonstrably false. It was hoped that President Assad would be a reformer when he inherited his father’s dictatorship a decade ago. Being a London-educated eye doctor, he received the full Yuri Andropov treatment — the assumption that having been exposed to Western ways, he’d been Westernized. Wrong. Assad has run the same iron-fisted Alawite police state as did his father.

Bashar made promises of reform during the short-lived Arab Spring of 2005. The promises were broken. During the current brutally suppressed protests, his spokeswoman made renewed promises of reform. Then Wednesday, appearing before parliament, Assad was shockingly defiant. He offered no concessions. None.

Second, Clinton’s statement is morally obtuse. Here are people demonstrating against a dictatorship that repeatedly uses live fire on its own people, a regime that in 1982 killed 20,000 in Hama and then paved the dead over. Here are insanely courageous people demanding reform — and the U.S. secretary of state tells the world that the thug ordering the shooting of innocents already is a reformer, thus effectively endorsing the Baath party line — “We are all reformers,” Assad told parliament — and undermining the demonstrators’ cause.

Third, it’s strategically incomprehensible. Sometimes you cover for a repressive ally because you need it for U.S. national security. Hence our muted words about Bahrain. Hence our slow response on Egypt. But there are rare times when strategic interest and moral imperative coincide completely. Syria is one such — a monstrous police state whose regime consistently works to thwart U.S. interests in the region.

During the worst days of the Iraq war, this regime funneled terrorists into Iraq to fight U.S. troops and Iraqi allies. It is dripping with Lebanese blood as well, being behind the murder of independent journalists and democrats, including former prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri. This year, it helped topple the pro-Western government of Hariri’s son, Saad, and put Lebanon under the thumb of the virulently anti-Western Hezbollah. Syria is a partner in nuclear proliferation with North Korea. It is Iran’s agent and closest Arab ally, granting it an outlet on the Mediterranean. Those two Iranian warships that went through the Suez Canal in February docked at the Syrian port of Latakia, a long-sought Iranian penetration of the Mediterranean.

Yet here was the secretary of state covering for the Syrian dictator against his own opposition. And it doesn’t help that Clinton tried to walk it back two days later by saying she was simply quoting others. Rubbish. Of the myriad opinions of Assad, she chose to cite precisely one: reformer. That’s an endorsement, no matter how much she later pretends otherwise.

And it’s not just the words; it’s the policy behind it. This delicacy toward Assad is dismayingly reminiscent of President Obama’s response to the 2009 Iranian uprising during which he was scandalously reluctant to support the demonstrators, while repeatedly reaffirming the legitimacy of the brutal theocracy suppressing them.

Why? Because Obama wanted to remain “engaged” with the mullahs — so that he could talk them out of their nuclear weapons. We know how that went.

The same conceit animates his Syria policy — keep good relations with the regime so that Obama can sweet-talk it out of its alliance with Iran and sponsorship of Hezbollah.

Another abject failure. Syria has contemptuously rejected Obama’s blandishments — obsequious visits from Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry and the return of the first U.S. ambassador to Damascus since the killing of Hariri. Assad’s response? An even tighter and more ostentatious alliance with Hezbollah and Iran.

Our ambassador in Damascus should demand to meet the demonstrators and visit the wounded. If refused, he should be recalled to Washington. And rather than “deplore the crackdown,” as did Clinton in her walk-back, we should be denouncing it in forceful language and every available forum, including the U.N. Security Council.

No one is asking for a Libya-style rescue. Just simple truth-telling. If Kerry wants to make a fool of himself by continuing to insist that Assad is an agent of change, well, it’s a free country. But Clinton speaks for the nation.

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Critics say Syrian leader may be squandering goodwill in face of protest movement

Washington Post (original story is by Associated Press),

Thursday, March 31,

DAMASCUS, Syria — Young and soft-spoken with a glamorous wife by his side, Syrian President Bashar Assad doesn’t fit the mold of an Arab dictator.

Many Syrians at home and abroad insist he is a reformer led astray by those around him — but Assad’s response to the protest movement boiling up around him may cost him the goodwill of those who still see him as an instrument of change.

“The Syrian people do not necessarily hate Bashar,” said Bilal Saab, a Middle East expert from the University of Maryland at College Park who regularly briefs U.S. officials on Syria. “In fact, most Syrian youth love him. But he is the head of the unpopular and corrupt Syrian regime, so the Syrian population is caught in a paradox.”

A wave of protests has presented Syria’s 45-year-old leader with the gravest challenge since he inherited power 11 years ago from his father, taking the helm of one of the Middle East’s most authoritarian regimes. On Thursday, Assad set up committees to look into the deaths of civilians during the unrest and replacing decades-old emergency laws.

Despite those overtures, many activists have called for a new round of demonstrations across Syria on Friday in what could be a turning point in the country’s future.

More than 70 people have been killed since March 18 as security forces cracked down on the protests, which erupted in the impoverished and drought-stricken south and spread quickly to other areas.

Assad dashed expectations that he would announce sweeping reforms this week, instead blaming two weeks of popular fury on a foreign conspiracy and fabrications in the media. His reaction has disappointed many who hoped to see serious concessions after the extraordinary protests in a country where any rumblings of dissent are crushed. One of the protesters’ main demands was an immediate end to decades-old state of emergency laws that allow the regime to arrest people without charge.

Assad appears to be following a strategy that has failed leaders in Egypt and Tunisia, who were swept out of power by popular uprisings after blaming outsiders and offering minor concessions.

Some critics said setting up committees to look into reforms was just a stalling technique.

When the unrest roiling the Middle East hit Syria, it was a dramatic turn for Assad, a British-trained eye doctor who said in January that his country was immune to such unrest because he is in tune with his people’s needs.

Assad does maintain a level of popular support, in no small part because of his anti-Israel policies, which resonate with his countrymen. And unlike leaders in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen and Jordan, Assad is not allied with the United States, so he has been spared the accusation that he caters to American demands.

Few in Syria have publicly called on Assad to step down. Most are calling for reforms, annulling emergency laws and other stringent security measures and an end to corruption.

Many protesters have directed their anger against Assad’s brother, Maher, who heads the Republican Guard, and the president’s cousin, Rami Makhlouf, who controls the mobile phone network, SyriaTel, as well as other lucrative enterprises.

But Aktham Nuaisse, a prominent pro-democracy activist, said Assad may be starting to squander his support.

“There are for sure other strong forces who are restraining him, people within the regime who have an interest in the continuation of corruption, the state of emergency and oppression,” he said. “But he is the president of Syria, this cannot be an excuse for him not to push forward with reforms.”

Assad took power at the age of 34 after the death of his father, Hafez, who ruled Syria with an iron fist for three decades. He was elected — although he was the only candidate — in a vote that was hastily arranged by ruling Baath party stalwarts.

Before his father’s death, Bashar Assad held no formal political office, no senior party post and no significant military position — the usual requirements for leadership in authoritarian Syria.

His elder brother Basil, widely believed to have been his father’s first choice as heir, died in a 1994 car crash, setting up Bashar for the presidency. In his previous life, he had an ophthalmology practice in London.

The early years of his rule were generally optimistic. He moved slowly to lift Soviet-style economic restrictions, letting in foreign banks, throwing the doors open to imports and empowering the private sector.

His baby steps toward reform gave rise to the “Damascus Spring” — a time of open political and social debate that was impossible during his father’s regime. Salons for intellectuals began to emerge where Syrians could discuss art, culture and politics.

His youth and quiet demeanor worked to his advantage. The tall, lanky leader with a mild disposition is said to detest being surrounded by bodyguards. Unlike other Arab leaders, Assad drives his own car without a convoy.

He is often seen around town with his glamorous wife, Asma — the subject of a glowing profile in a recent edition of Vogue magazine — and their three young children. They live in an apartment in the upscale Abu Rummaneh district of Damascus, as opposed to a palatial mansion like other Arab leaders.

But the “Damascus Spring” turned out to be short-lived. In 2001, the feared secret police began raiding the salons, jailing scores of activists. In the years that followed, Assad has slipped back into the autocratic ways of his father.

Internal challengers and regional upheaval certainly have slowed down reforms, including an old guard that fears reforms would mean an end to privileges. Syrians have seemed generally sympathetic to the problem of the old guard clinging to power — but now, it seems, many are starting to tire of the excuse.

The bloodshed in Syria has shocked the country — human rights groups say more than 60 people were killed in the southern city of Daraa, and the government says another 12 died in the Mediterranean port city of Latakia.

Assad’s announcement Thursday that he was setting up committees to look into the deaths of civilians and replacing the emergency laws appeared to be a carefully designed attempt to head off massive protests planned for Friday while showing he will not be pressured to implement reform — instead, he will make changes at his own pace.

Instability here would likely have ripple effects outside the country’s borders.

Syria has long been viewed by the West as a potentially destabilizing force in the Middle East. An ally of Iran and Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon, it has also provided a home for some radical Palestinian groups.

In recent years, however, the country has been trying to emerge from years of international isolation.

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Assad's 'j'accuse'

While the Syrian president predictably blamed 'them' - the Lebanese, the Saudis, the U.S. and Israel - for troubles at home, PA President Abbas made it clear that there is no time to lose when it comes to Jerusalem's renewal of talks with the Palestinians

By Avi Issacharoff

Haaretz,

1 Apr. 2011,

RAMALLAH - The Syrian media are serving as the mouthpiece of their regime and of the Ba'ath Party, and the international media are having trouble reporting freely about events in Syria. Furthermore, the rate of Internet use is low in Syria and though it may seem as if social networks are penetrating every household in the world, this is a country that remains isolated from the international community. Information about what is happening in Syria only arrives at international media outlets in a trickle, if at all. Indeed, the authorities have succeeded in blocking completely the entry of journalists into cities like Daraa and Latakia, and only a very few videos uploaded to YouTube are managing to give any sort of inkling as to events there.

Nevertheless, it can be said with near certainty that many of Syria's citizens were very disappointed following President Bashar Assad's speech on Wednesday. Not that there were great expectations of a dramatic announcement presaging a regime change in Damascus, but one can presume that after the long silence the president had imposed on himself in the wake of fierce demonstrations around the country, the people of Syria were hoping for more.

This has been the largest wave of protest in Syria since Assad succeeded his father as president in 2000. More than 100 people have been killed and hundreds have been wounded or arrested in recent weeks. The Syrian military has been deployed throughout the large cities. At the same time, the economic situation in the country, which was grim in any case, is expected to become even worse in the face of the violent demonstrations and the retreat of foreign investors.

Bashar Assad's speech this week brought to mind the hallucinatory statements by other Arab leaders shortly before they were deposed. The president accused the entire world of an evil conspiracy against Syria, aimed at toppling the regime. He explained that the opponents to his rule are trying to force an Israeli agenda on Syria.

"First, they incited against Syria for weeks on the satellite and Internet channels but they did not succeed. They falsified information. They falsified everything," he said. "After that they tried to take the ethnic route. By means of instant messages on the mobile phones they called for each of the ethnic groups to take to the streets."

A day earlier a Lebanese newspaper had reported that Damascus suspects that the anti-Syrian March 14 Alliance in Lebanon is spearheading the unrest. By contrast, this week Haaretz's Zvi Bar'el reported on documents shown on the Champress Internet site - which is identified with the regime - ostensibly proving the involvement of the Saudis and the United States in the protests in Syria.

Assad's "they," it would appear, is a constantly changing entity: "They" could be the Lebanese, the Saudis, the Americans and/or the Israelis. The most important thing, from that perspective, is that the roots of the protests are not Syrians' frustration with the tyranny in their country, or with the backwardness or the absence of democracy there, but rather lay with "them."

From Assad's speech, it can be understood that for the moment at least he does not intend to respond to public pressure by instituting reforms that might calm things down. Indeed, in his remarks he confined himself to promises of changes and reiterated the details of the so-called conspiracy.

"We have not yet uncovered the whole plot," he said. "We have discovered only part of it, and the whole thing is organized. There are cells of people who helped in more than one province. There are communications cells, a forgery cell and cells of eyewitnesses. These cells were organized in advance."

The Syrian president's outbursts of laughter during his comments against the media and, in particular, the satellite television channels (remarks that were similar to the accusations made recently by the rulers of Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen and Libya ), were perhaps also testimony to the magnitude of his distress. The man who succeeded in ruling Syria for over a decade, who put down the riots in the Kurdish part of the country and proudly told The Wall Street Journal that "Syria is not Tunisia or Egypt" (Muammar Gadhafi in Libya and Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen said the same thing ), has discovered that the Spring of the Arab Nations has come, if not yet in full force, then at least to many large and small cities alike in his country.

However, it is also possible that Assad has realized the future of the country is no longer in his hands. Or as Prof. Eyal Zisser, dean of the humanities faculty at Tel Aviv University and an expert on Syrian affairs, put it so well at a conference this week at the university's Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies: "Syria's future has passed into the hands of the country's young people, people in their 20s and 30s, who constitute more than half the population. They - members of the Sunni community and of the other ethnic groups, from the periphery and from the major cities - are the ones who will determine the country's path and future."

Meanwhile at the PA

While Bashar Assad was delivering his "j'accuse" against the media and the world, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas' people were sitting in their headquarters in the Muqata in Ramallah, listening attentively. Perhaps they will not admit this, but Assad's situation in Damascus has clear and immediate ramifications for Hamas in the Gaza Strip and its willingness to make amends with the PA.

A few rooms away from his aides, Abbas was ending a meeting with members of the Council for Peace and Security, a group of former senior officers from the Israel Defense Forces and other Israel security organizations. As the Syrian president was trying to calm things down in his country, the Palestinian president was enjoying the fact that the West Bank is virtually the quietest place in the Middle East these days.

Quite a number of right-wing politicians and some journalists have argued that in light of current changes in the Arab world, it is not possible to trust Abbas and therefore it is necessary to postpone negotiations on any final-status agreement and monitor events on the ground. However, the reality in the West Bank (at least until press time yesterday ) proves the extent to which Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad are succeeding in maintaining security and order throughout the West Bank, demonstrating remarkable governance and also winning popularity among their people.

Abbas told the senior Israeli reserve officers (majors general, brigadiers general and colonels ) that it is now forbidden to set off fireworks or firecrackers in PA-held territories, "not even at celebrations." (One of the Israelis present said jokingly that maybe it would be worth bringing the Palestinian police into Israel next Purim. )

Abbas' remarks made a deep impression on the visitors because it is clear that time is working against Israel. The PA's plan as he presented it is that, if in the coming months there is no Israeli diplomatic breakthrough in the form of renewed negotiations and a settlement freeze, in September the PA will ask the United Nations General Assembly - where the United States does not have the power to impose a veto (as it does in the Security Council ) - to recognize a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders. According to Abbas and his people, about 150 (out of 192 ) countries are expected to vote in favor. This would be mainly a symbolic resolution and the Palestinians will have to formulate it in a moderate way in order to ensure the support of a large majority .

The State of Israel's biggest problem is what will happen in the West Bank following the UN resolution. Abbas hinted at this week's meeting that it is not his intention to remain president after September if there is not a breakthrough in talks with Israel. In such a case, one can only imagine what could happen here.

It is hard to say when exactly the third intifada could erupt, about which much has already been said (immediately after the Third Intifada Facebook page was closed, a new one with the same name was opened ). Right now the month of September promises to be a problematic and explosive one, a fact that apparently is not recognized by those Israelis, including the prime minister, who think it is necessary to take a wait-and-see attitude.

Sufian Abu Zaydeh, a top Fatah person, sat next to Prof. Zisser at the Dayan Center conference this week. Abu Zaideh, who was incarcerated in an Israeli prison when the first intifada broke out, offered a survey of the present situation. He explained that in September demonstrations and marches are expected throughout the territories. When the protesters arrive at the roadblocks, he said, they will have two options: to shoot or to flee.

In 1996 it was the decision by the young prime minister at the time, Benjamin Netanyahu, to open the Western Wall tunnels that sparked the wave of riots that cost the lives of 17 Israelis and 17 Palestinians. This time, it will be the absence of a decision by Netanyahu, and especially the maintenance of the status quo - which apparently is seen at the Prime Minister's Bureau as a blessing - that are likely to compel the State of Israel to deal with another wave of riots.

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Turkey to UN: We seized illegal Iran arms shipment en route to Syria

Ankara tells Security Council search of Iranian cargo airliner revealed, among other items, 560 60mm mortar shells and 1,288 120mm mortar shells.

Haaretz (original story is By Reuters)

1 Apr. 2011,

Turkey has informed a UN Security Council panel that it seized a cache of weapons Iran was attempting to export in breach of a UN arms embargo, according to a document obtained by Reuters on Thursday.

Security Council diplomats said the report of the seizure from an Iranian cargo plane reflected positively on Turkey, which some U.S. and European officials say has taken a lax approach to implementing international sanctions against Iranian financial institutions.

The report to the council's Iran sanctions committee, which oversees compliance with the four rounds of punitive steps the 15-nation body has imposed on Iran over its nuclear program, said a March 21 inspection turned up the weapons, which were listed as "auto spare parts" on the plane's documents.

The plane was bound for Aleppo, Syria, and was given permission to pass through Turkish airspace provided it made a "technical stop" at Diyarbakir airport, the report said.

It said a search of the Iranian "YasAir Cargo Airlines" Ilyushin-76 revealed a number of "prohibited military items" -- 60 Kalashnikov AK-47 assault rifles, 14 BKC/Bixi machine guns, nearly 8,000 rounds of BKC/AK-47 ammunition, 560 60mm mortar shells, and 1,288 120mm mortar shells.

"The above-mentioned items were seized and have been stored in a military warehouse in Diyarbakir," said the report, which was sent to the Iran sanctions committee on March 29.

The Turkish seizure was the latest in a string of reported Iranian violations of the sanctions imposed on Iran for refusing to halt a nuclear enrichment program that the United States, European Union and their allies suspect is part of a weapons program. Tehran says its nuclear program is peaceful.

Colombia's UN Ambassador Nestor Osorio, who chairs the Iran sanctions committee, told the Security Council last week that "the increase in the number of reported sanctions violations is a matter of serious concern."

Security Council diplomats said it was not clear whether Iran had stepped up its efforts to skirt the sanctions or countries have become more vigilant in enforcing them.

"Kudos for Turkey," a council diplomat told Reuters.

It was not clear whether Syria was the intended final destination of the weapons. There were no indications on the weapons crates of who the recipient was or where the shipment would have gone had it not been intercepted by the Turks.

"The crew were detained and interrogated by the Diyarbakir State Prosecutor," the report said. "They denied any knowledge about the prohibited items on board, as well as the identity of the consignor or consignee."

The crew were released and allowed to return to Tehran on March 22, but the case is still being investigated, it said.

The United States and Israel have said they suspect Iran uses Syria as a conduit for weapons transfers to militant groups in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. Iran and Syria deny the charges.

Last week, UN diplomats said authorities in Singapore and South Korea had seized items banned under the sanctions against Iran's nuclear and missile programs.

One of the items -- aluminum powder seized in Singapore -- was originally thought to be from North Korea, though investigators now believe that the powder came from a Chinese firm, diplomats told Reuters. The other item -- phosphor bronze discovered in South Korea -- also came from a Chinese company.

There was no evidence that the Chinese government was involved, though diplomats said the incidents raised questions about Chinese export controls and concerns about the readiness of some Chinese companies to defy the sanctions regime.

Britain has complained publicly about a shipment of Iranian weapons allegedly bound for Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan.

On March 15, Israeli naval commandos seized a cargo ship in the Mediterranean carrying what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said were Iranian-supplied weapons intended for Palestinian militants in Gaza.

Nigerian authorities complained to the sanctions committee about an Iranian arms shipment it seized last year that Tehran said was a legitimate trade deal with Gambia. Nigeria is prosecuting one of two Iranians allegedly involved in the deal.

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Obama's nuanced foreign policy evident in Libya vs. Syria

The White House has struggled to explain why Libya warrants military action and Syria doesn't. The reasons involve national interest more than humanitarian concerns.

By Paul Richter,

Los Angeles Times

April 1, 2011

Reporting from Washington

Even as President Obama lays out his vision of America's obligations to civilians menaced by their own governments, the limits of what some are calling an "Obama Doctrine" are evident in his differing approaches to Libya and another Arab country in turmoil: Syria.

Ignoring Libyans in danger from Moammar Kadafi's forces "would have been a betrayal of who we are," the president said this week in defending the U.S.-supported air war there. Yet the administration has made it clear that the military option is not "on the table," in Syria, where dozens of protesters also have been killed.

A senior administration official confirmed that even milder measures, such as a tightening of U.S. sanctions, withdrawal of the ambassador to Syria, or other efforts at economic or diplomatic isolation are not being weighed.

Both countries are within reach of missiles and warplanes launched from U.S. ships in the Mediterranean. The difference in U.S. policy toward them is an example of Obama's general approach to government: seeing policy in shades of gray rather than black and white.

But the administration has struggled to explain why it has intervened in one country and not the other. The explanation is difficult in part because it has less to do with humanitarian issues than with harder calculations of national interest.

Obama indicated in his speech to the country Monday that Libya met a set of specific conditions for military action, including an international mandate, a broad coalition willing to take part and appeals from Libyans themselves. Rebels in eastern Libya quickly formed an alternative government and sought foreign intervention through establishment of a no-fly zone.

"I don't know if those circumstances could be duplicated anyplace else," Obama told ABC News on Tuesday. He added that in each case, he needed to measure the national and international interest, and the possibility of success versus the risks involved.

While the death toll has risen into the dozens in Syria, officials point out that it is still far lower than the thousands feared killed in Libya, and probably many fewer than would be needed to build foreign support for military intervention there.

"We're not anywhere near the kind of situation that drew all the international support for Libya," the senior official said.

Moreover, although Libya is a major oil producer, the strategic stakes are smaller than in Syria. And many more neighboring governments were fed up with Kadafi.

In Syria, U.S. officials worry that a collapse of the regime could lead to chaos that could destabilize neighboring Lebanon and increase the risk of war with Israel. They also fear that the secular dictatorship of President Bashar Assad could be replaced by an Islamist government. Adding to the problems, Syria has deep sectarian divisions, which could crack open if the government's grasp is weakened.

Israel, the top U.S. ally in the region, has been urging caution, worried about what a successor regime might look like. Though the Syrian regime has been one of Israel's most threatening adversaries, many Israelis consider it predictable.

Other U.S. allies share some of the same hesitations. A senior European diplomat predicted strong international resistance to any effort to organize international action against Syria.

"Also to be considered is the regime that would follow Assad," said the diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject.

At least some U.S. officials still cling to the hope that Assad's regime can help solve some of the most pressing problems in the Middle East. Many past administrations have held the same hope, only to be disappointed.

Notwithstanding deep skepticism in Congress, the Obama administration has been working since it took office to win Syria's cooperation in building an Arab-Israeli peace, containing Iran, and other Mideast projects.

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton made the administration's view clear recently when she described Assad as a "different leader" than his father, President Hafez Assad, who ordered the killing of thousands of Syrians to put down protests in 1982. Clinton implied that the younger Assad might become a reformer.

The opening to Syria was a sharp contrast with the policy of President George W. Bush, who made early attempts to cultivate Syria relations, then concluded that the regime would never cooperate, pulled the U.S. ambassador and added sanctions.

So far, the Obama administration's effort to court Syria has borne little fruit, a point hammered by Republican presidential hopefuls and conservative critics. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty said Clinton's suggestion that Assad might be a reformer was "either ignorant or frighteningly misguided."

Even some human rights activists who are often allies of the administration are urging it to increase pressure on Damascus.

Tom Malinowski, Washington director for Human Rights Watch, said Assad had shown definitively in a speech this week that he did not intend to carry out political reforms. "This should be a pivot point," he said.

The fundamental problem with the administration's approach, said Daniel Kurtzer, a former ambassador to Israel and an advisor to Obama in the 2008 election, is that "there isn't anything that really separates what's happening in Libya from what's happening in Syria — nothing at all."

The administration's attempt to separate the two policies "isn't going to work if people keep getting killed," he said.

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We in Israel welcome the Arab spring

Unlike Hamas and Hezbollah, the young want peace and progress in our region

Shimon Peres

The Guardian,

Friday 1 April 2011

The Middle East has to make a historic choice: to join the new global age of democratic peace and liberal economy, or to stay clinging to its history of closed societies and autocracy.

A great revolt has been initiated by young people and women, to gain freedom, bread and hope. Israel is watching with great expectation. These events are both unprecedented and unplanned.

The internet, Facebook and Twitter have created mass communications and social spaces that regimes cannot control. These developments allowed young people to compare notes with their contemporaries in other countries, and to see clearly how their own governments wasted wealth and time to enhance their own power while ignoring the needs of their people. It opened their eyes.

The upheaval we see today in our region is driven by a clash of generations rather than a clash of civilisations. The older generation had greater respect for land than science. But we live in an age when science, more than soil, has become the provider of growth and abundance. Living just on the land creates loneliness in an age of globality.

Israel is an example of that today: technology and not territory are the drivers of wealth. We have shown that with a small piece of land, little water and no oil, it is possible to create a thriving economy and a sustainable democracy.

Israel welcomes the wind of change, and sees a window of opportunity. Democratic and science-based economies by nature desire peace. Israel does not want to be an island of affluence in an ocean of poverty. Improvements in our neighbours' lives mean improvements to the neighbourhood in which we live.

Israelis understand that this is no less true of the Palestinians. That is why successive Israeli governments have given their full support to the efforts of Palestinians in the West Bank to build their own economy, their own institutions, and their own security forces. Economic growth in the West Bank is now close to 10% annually. Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians see the tangible fruit of this co-operation. Knowledge, freedom and peace are inseparable.

Peace is needed and can be achieved by direct negotiations. This was the case with Egypt and Jordan, and can happen with the Palestinians. The gap between ourselves and the Palestinians is more psychological than material.

Bringing an end to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians may help the young Arab generation to realise their aspirations. Israel is more than willing to offer our experience in building a modern economy in spite of limited resources to the whole region. We seek only the acceptance from our neighbours and the opportunity to play a full role in the life of the region.

Israel was born under the British mandate. We learned from the British what democracy means, and how it behaves in a time of danger, war and terror. We thank Britain for introducing freedom and respect of human rights both in normal and demanding circumstances. It was a great lesson and a necessary one for a country such as Israel, which has been attacked seven times in the 63 years of its existence without compromising democracy and without giving up our quest for peace.

However, there are other forces in our region that want to resist the spread of these values. They are ready to abuse democratic institutions to gain power, but without the commitment to maintain the integrity of those institutions once they are in power. Hamas and Hezbollah, backed by Iran, are representatives of these forces.

Those reactionary forces, that would hijack their countries back down the path of radicalism, are also the enemies of peace with Israel. That is why we hope our neighbours will choose to join the family of democratic nations.

Shimon Peres is president of Israel

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Philadelphia Inquirer: 'Assad makes new overtures in Syria'..

Boston Globe: 'Assad moves to ease Syria strictures'..

National Post: 'Syria seeks reform without change'..

Haaretz: 'Israel holds secret talks with Russia in bid to thwart recognition of Palestinian state'..

Haaretz: 'Poll: Young Israelis moving much farther to the right politically'..

Jerusalem Post: '’Post’ poll: 43% of Israeli Jews satisfied with Netanyahu'..

NYTIMES: 'Syria's Assad Takes Steps Towards Reforms'..

Washington Post: 'Syria announces step toward lifting emergency rule'..

Washington Post: 'Turkey, which seeks powerbroker role, balances links to Mideast leaders with calls for reform'..

Washington Post: ‘Syria announces step toward lifting emergency rule’..

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