South Australian Major Projects Conference 09 Darren Bilsborough, Director of Sustainability, PB-APAdjunct Professor of Sustainability, Curtin University

Sustainability and its Effects on the Future of Major Projects

New ways Needed – A Change in DirectionSustainable Energy Sustainable Buildings Sustainable Transport

Sustainable Infrastructure

Why? What’s the ProblemClimate Change Resource Depletion (including Water) Health and Well Being (future liabilities)

New ways Needed – A Change in DirectionSustainable EnergySustainable Buildings Sustainable Transport

Sustainable Infrastructure

Why? What’s the ProblemClimate Change Resource Depletion (including Water) Health and Well Being (future liabilities)

7 Major Themes of Infrastructure Australia

1 A national broadband network:: developing a more extensive, globally competitive broadband system;

2. Creation of a true national energy market: more extensive national energy grids to enable greater exibility and competition in the nation’s electricity and gas systems, whilst creating opportunities for the development of renewable energy sources;

3. Competitive international gateways: developing more effective ports and associated land transport systems to more efficiently cope with imports and exports;

4. A national rail freight network: development of our rail networks so that more freight can be moved by rail;

5. Adaptable and secure water supplies: more adaptable and resilient water systems to cope with climate change;

6. Transforming our cities: increasing public transport capacity in our cities and making better use of existing transport infrastructure; and

7. Providing essential indigenous services: improved services for Indigenous communities.

PB Challenges for Sustainable Infrastructure

1. The redesign of (existing or renewal of) infrastructure in light of global climate change – specifically looking at how we design future infrastructure to be either “carbon neutral”or with a significantly reduced carbon footprint, and how should our infrastructure be designed to take into account future climatic predictions?

Energy Efficiency and Conservation

Fuel SwitchingForests & Soils

CO2 Captureand Storage

Nuclear Fission

StabilizationTriangle

2005 20557 BtC/y

14 BtC/y

Mitigation Strategies - Mainly Energy

Renewable Electricity and Fuels

Climate Change and the Energy Sector

A Possible Future Scenario – The Australian Business Roundtable on Climate Change

More Renewables?

Infrastructure Australia

The Elephant in the Room

Adaptation Strategies in response to Changing Climatic and Environmental Conditionsa) Risk minimisation which takes into account impacts

associated with rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, rising sea levels and changing storm frequency, type and intensity.

b) Response to changes in land use/value and planning.

c) Prepare communities to adapt to climate change including:

impacts of population increases (or changes) to transportation infrastructure such needsbushfire intensity and frequency

Climate Change Adaptation

PB Challenges for Sustainable Infrastructure

1. The redesign of (existing or renewal of) infrastructure in light of global climate change – specifically looking at how we design future infrastructure to be either “carbon neutral” or with a significantly reduced carbon footprint, and how should our infrastructure be designed to take into account future climatic predictions?

2. Economic, social and environmental modelling of land use and transportation – the modelling could be used for assessment of policies on emissions, energy use and infrastructure costs. For example life-cycle analysis, ecological footprinting, benefit-cost analysis.

Peak Oil

Oil Production World Summary

• Energy Watch Group forecasts oil production will fall 50% by 2030, to be only 1/3rd of world demandSource: Energywatch (2007)

How Much Time Have We Got?

• Some future scenarios have petrol prices at up to $8/litre in Australia. Even modest scenarios foresee $2 a litre within a few years

• Surveys by Budget Direct suggest 30% of motorists in Australian cities will stop using their car to commute if petrol reaches $1.75 a litre

• Watch the arctic this September – the canary in the mine. We may only be three-four years from an ice free arctic in summer

Destiny of all life lies within technology

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Degree of SprawlTransportation as Percent of Expenditures

Sprawling Places Are More Expensive

PB-CUSP Alliance Research

Costs to government$86 million (or approximately $80,000 per block) – or the cost to provide power, water, sewerage, schools, hospitals and local government services for fringe developments. Road infrastructure is the most significant cost.

Cost to people$250 million in transport costs over 50 years – people in fringe developments drive more frequently and own more cars$ 4.23 million in health costs – people in fringe developments

have higher risk of obesity related to lower levels of physical activity for people.

Cost to the planet4,400 tons of greenhouse gas is saved for 1,000 urban dwellings, which is roughly equal to the amount emitted from 200homes – an estimated dollar value of approximately $19.32 million.

What is Sustainable Transport?

• Rail and Public Transport

• Bicycling etc

• Green cars

• Infrastructure Priorities and Configurations to Support the Various Modal Options

Public transport

Trend back to public transport in USPT growing faster in the US than car traffic since 1995Light rail up 10%, heavy rail up 5% in year to March. Car use down 4%

Big shifts to PT in Australia Patronage on Melbourne Trains up 23% in last 3 yearsBuses in Brisbane up 30% in last few yearsTrains in Perth up 40% in last yearLight Rail in Adelaide up 30% in last year

Vehicle Options – Green Cars/Bikes

low fuel consumption electric cars

electric motor-scooter

electric-assist bike

electric gopher

The Humble Bicycle

Providing Specific Space for Cyclists is Catching On..

The Road of the Future?

What will it look like?How will its construction be different to account for climate change? i.e., more prolonged higher temperatures and extreme weather eventsWhat type of supporting infrastructure will be required? i.e., electricity?

The Road of the Future?

What will it look like?How will its construction be different to account for climate change? i.e., more prolonged higher temperatures and extreme weather eventsWhat type of supporting infrastructure will be required? i.e., electricity?How many different modes of transportation should it accommodate and safely? i.e., rail or light rail, physical barriers for pedestrians or cyclists

PB Challenges for Sustainable Infrastructure

1. The redesign of (existing or renewal of) infrastructure in light of global climate change – specifically looking at how we design future infrastructure to be either “carbon neutral” or with a significantly reduced carbon footprint, and how should our infrastructure be designed to take into account future climatic predictions?

2. Economic, social and environmental modelling of land use and transportation – the modelling could be used for assessment of policies on emissions, energy use and infrastructure costs. For example life-cycle analysis, ecological footprinting, benefit-cost analysis.

3. Sustainable materials selection – looking at the quality, durability, resource efficiency and energy conservation (both embedded and operational) of project materials.

Rating Tools

PB Challenges for Sustainable Infrastructure

4. The protection of existing infrastructure from environmental degradation - for example the preservation, renewal, and longevity extension of materials and the relevance and applicability of systems.

5. Moving to Zero Waste environments – for example looking at cradle to cradle design solutions, recycling and reuse.

6. The proper economic evaluation of social infrastructure elements in society – including environmental, and physical and mental health benefits.

Future Health Liability

PB Challenges for Sustainable Infrastructure

4. The protection of existing infrastructure from environmental degradation - for example the preservation, renewal, and longevity extension of materials and the relevance and applicability of systems.

5. Moving to Zero Waste environments – for example looking at cradle to cradle design solutions, recycling and reuse.

6. The proper economic evaluation of social infrastructure elements in society – including environmental, and physical and mental health benefits.

7. The remediation of damaged environments –specifically focusing on damaged soils and water supplies, and the restitution of food production and capacity.

8. Revitalisation and restitution of ecology – the revitalisation of our ecological systems, and the restitution ofecological biodiversity.

Biodiverse Cities

Mole Hill Vancouver

Edible Cities

If your looking for a big opportunity look for a big problem” ANON

Where do Australian emissions come from?

48%

14%

Stationary energy(power plants, etc)

Transport(vehicles)

6%

3%

2%

Garbage tips

Industrial processes

Gases escaping (during mining, from pipes)

17%

10% Land use change and forestry (clearing, etc)

Agriculture (mostly ex-animals)

AGO, figures for 1999

Where do Australian emissions come from?

Stationary energy(power plants, etc)

Transport(vehicles)

AGO, figures for 1999

62% of all emissions from Transport and Energy

EVs and Smart Grids

Courtesy of EPRI

EV’s and The GridEnabling Renewables

Grid mix without EVs Grid mix with EVs

Doubling of installed wind capacity.Short & Denholm (2006) “A Preliminary Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles on Wind Energy Markets”

EVs and Smart Grids

• Enormous demand for smart-grid technologies to support EV networks and other distributed energy technologies

• $11B in Obama stimulus package for smart grids, $100M in 2009 Australian Federal Budget

• Emerging business opportunities for EV “aggregators”

Coulomb TechnologiesProject Better Place

EVs and Renewable Communities

EVs in Toyota’s Dream House, Japan MASDAR City, United Arab Emirates

Conclusions

• Climate Change and Peak Oil have arrived• We have to make major adaptations over the

next 10-20 years• We need to start immediately• Failure to act risks economic and social turmoil• The solutions are not rocket science but they do

need leadership and bipartisan support

Discussion Q&A

Sustainability and its Effects on the Future of Major Projects