RV 2014: Beyond Mobility: Corridor Planning for the Bigger Picture by Eric Engstrom
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Transcript of RV 2014: Beyond Mobility: Corridor Planning for the Bigger Picture by Eric Engstrom
Beyond Mobility Planning for the Bigger Picture
Eric Engstrom, AICP City of Portland, OR Rail~Volu>on 2014
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Expected Growth by 2035:
• 122,000 more households
• 140,000 projected new jobs
Comprehensive Plan
Comparing Different Growth Pa:erns
Default Growth Scenario Corridor Growth Scenario Hubs Growth Scenario
Comparing Different Growth Pa:erns
What makes a city healthy?
Safety
Basic Public Services
Social Connections Businesses & Amenities
Active Transportation Quality Housing
Healthy Food Parks & Nature
Watershed Health
Performance Measures Complete Neighborhoods Tree Canopy
Access to Frequent Transit Access to Family Friendly
Bike Network Watershed Health
Housing Mix Vehicle Miles Traveled Housing Affordability Mode Split Risk of Displacement/
Gentrification Carbon/GHG Emissions
Parks Access
City Shaping Tool
City Shaping Tool
Distribu>on of New Housing (2010-‐2035)
Comp Plan Context – Form
Growth Strategy
What is the streetcar predic-ve model?
An analy>cal tool to predict real estate development that would be s>mulated by streetcar and related investments.
What the model tells us… 1. Magnitude of new development
s>mulated by public investment 2. How local regula>ons affect
development feasibility 3. Es>mated fiscal and economic
benefits of development
About the PredicHve Model
• Considers ownership paSerns, zoning paSerns and codes, property values, local market data, and applica>on of suppor>ve public policy. • Models individual pro-‐forma decisions that developers make • Spreadsheet-‐based • Developed by Johnson Economics • Peer reviewed • Requires economic exper>se to run
About the PredicHve Model
LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT MODULE
PREDICTED MAGNITUDE AND FORM OF DEVELPOMENT
SUPPORTABLE VALUE
CURRENT VALUE
PRICING
COST
RETURN ZONING
PREDICTED DEVELOPMENT/ REDEVELOPMENT
RESIDUAL PROPERTY VALUE MODULE
Research on cause and effect is limited
User inputs…
User inputs…
10 Study Areas
9.5%
2.2%
1.0% 0.8%
0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
Macadam Foster Sandy MLK Gateway Belmont 82nd Broadway
Average Change in RMV w. Streetcar Rela>ve to Baseline (Change as a % of present RMV)