RURAL MARKETS, NATURAL CAPITAL AND DYNAMIC POVERTY TRAPS IN EAST AFRICA Principal Investigator C....
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Transcript of RURAL MARKETS, NATURAL CAPITAL AND DYNAMIC POVERTY TRAPS IN EAST AFRICA Principal Investigator C....
RURAL MARKETS, NATURAL CAPITAL RURAL MARKETS, NATURAL CAPITAL AND DYNAMIC POVERTY TRAPS IN AND DYNAMIC POVERTY TRAPS IN
EAST AFRICAEAST AFRICA
Principal InvestigatorPrincipal InvestigatorC. BARRETT C. BARRETT - CORNELL- CORNELL
Co-Principal InvestigatorsCo-Principal InvestigatorsF. MURITHI F. MURITHI - KARI - KARI
F. PLACE F. PLACE - ICRAF- ICRAF
J. RASAMBAINARIVO J. RASAMBAINARIVO - FOFIFA- FOFIFA
PRESENTATION OUTLINEPRESENTATION OUTLINE
PROBLEM STATEMENT
RESEARCH GOAL &OBJECTIVES
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
POLICY RELEVANCE
RESEARCH TIME LINE
EXPECTED OUTPUTS
Problem StatementProblem StatementAgrarian poverty may create incentives to follow land and
livestock management practices which further reduce agricultural labor productivity by depleting natural capital:
resource degradation poverty traps (RDPTs).
Key Sources of RDPTs (threshold effects):
- missing/imperfect factor, product and asset markets - biologically-induced non-convex technologies
Resource Degradation Poverty TrapsResource Degradation Poverty Traps
An integrated model of dynamic processes giving rise to poverty traps in rural Africa
HUMAN BIOPHYSICAL
Reduction of criticalecological functions
Income & wealthinequalities
Extensification/intensification
Declining productivity(labor, capital)
Imperfect and missingasset/factor/product
markets
Soils degradationAgriculture(declining output)
Research GoalResearch Goal
Contribute towards an improved understanding of the interaction between economic and biological processes in poor rural communities and disseminate findings to lay decision makers through policy briefs and community meetings to improve local management practices.
Study ObjectivesStudy Objectives
Examine empirically how biological processes and market conditions interact to create or extend dynamic poverty traps
Simulate policy experiments that might sustainably reduce poverty and/or improve resource management
Build capacity with local partners to carry out such analysis and simulations locally
Research MethodologyResearch Methodology
Field data collection
Econometric estimation of behavioral and biological response functions
Integrated simulation modeling (CLASSES)
Field Data Collection DesignField Data Collection DesignM
AR
KE
T A
CC
ES
S
Drier
Wor
se B
ette
r
Wetter
1. North Central Kenya (Baringo)
AGRO-ECOLOGICAL CONDITIONS
1.Central highlands, Kenya (Embu)
2. Central highlands, Madagascar (Vakinankaratra)
1. Northern Kenya(Marsabit)
1. Western Kenya (Siaya /Vihiga)
2. Southern highlands, Madagascar (Fianarantsoa)
CLASSES Simulation ModelCLASSES Simulation Model
Crop, Livestock And Soils in Smallholder Economic Systems (CLASSES)
– an integrated model of heterogeneous agents and landscapes with dynamic feedback loops linking field and tree crop and livestock productivity to soil conditions and to human choices and welfare in the presence of potentially imperfect or missing markets
Policy RelevancePolicy Relevance
Use models to simulate policy experiments, allowing for differences according to market and agroecological conditions. For example- What are the consequences of improving market
access on poverty and soils over time?
- How might biological interventions (e.g., liming soils, extending improved fallows) change labor allocation and income trajectories?
- What targeting mechanisms and transfer forms (e.g., livestock species) are likely to prove most effective in sustainably reducing agrarian poverty?
RESEARCH TIME LINERESEARCH TIME LINEACTIVITIES
YEAR 0(2000-1)
YEAR 1(2001-2)
YEAR 2(2002-3)
YEAR 3(2003-4)
Project design
Field survey
Training
Bio-economicmodelling training W/S
Project teammeetings
Parameterestimation
Simulationmodel building
Policy W/S
Publications
Research OutputResearch Output Direct dissemination of research findings to
specific sites, users and to areas with similar conditions
Provide an empirical basis for policy recommendations and implementation
Publications (English, French, Malagasy, Swahili) Capacity building (FOFIFA, KARI) Generate relevant data bases for future use