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Transcript of Rookery South – implications for air quality and health · PDF fileAnnual mean NO2...
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Rookery South –implications for air quality and health
Roger Barrowcliffe, 24 May 2008
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Content
• Changes to local air quality• dispersion model results
• Dioxins and metals – the food chain model• effects on a hypothetical resident/farmer
• Particles• background knowledge on health effects
• our calculation for the population around Rookery Pit
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Expected Annual Average Concentrations (µg m-3)
Pollutant RRF Contribution (maximum point of impact)
Existing Concentration
Nitrogen dioxide (NO2)
1.5 15-20
Sulphur dioxide (SO2)
0.4 7
PM10/PM2.5 0.05 18/9
Dioxins 0.000 000 000 49 0.000 000 36
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Additional Annual Average NO2Concentrations ( µg m-3)
496000 497000 498000 499000 500000 501000 502000 503000 504000 505000 506000236000
237000
238000
239000
240000
241000
242000
243000
244000
245000
246000
Annual mean NO2(micrograms/m3)
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Additional maximum one hour average NOx concentrations ( µg m-3)
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NOx concentrations, at the location of maximum impact, hour by hour (2009)(Pink = background, blue = EfW contribution)
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Food chain modelling (dioxins and metals)
Key points:• the US EPA human health risk assessment
protocol is followed by ERM;• hypothetical residents/farmers defined for ‘worst
case exposure’;• along with their diet;• for some metals, the health effect is described in
terms of a carcinogenic risk• for dioxins, the health effect is evaluated by
calculating the additional lifetime body burden
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Risk – what does it mean?
1 in 20,000,000 (=0.05 x 10-6)Animal venom (wasps)1 in 10,000,000 (=0.1 x 10-6)Lightning strike1 in 5,000,000Terrorist bomb (in London)1 in 420,000Rail accident1 in 30,000Accident at work1 in 12,000Accident at home1 in 10,000Motor vehicle accident1 in 600Man, aged 35-441 in 200Smoking 30 cigarettes per day
The table below shows the annual risks of fatality, based on simple incidence statistics
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Carcinogenic lifetime risk by pathway
Pathway Farmer (near Stewartby)
Resident (Stewartby)
Inhalation 0.47 x 10-6 0.24 x 10-6
Ingestion - vegetation 0.79 x 10-6 0.26 x 10-6
Ingestion - beef 0.44 x 10-6 -
Ingestion- chicken 0.00003 x 10-6 -
Ingestion - milk 0.0029 x 10-6 -
Ingestion - soil 0.000014 x 10-6 0.000065 x 10-6
Total: 2.0 x 10-6 0.5 x 10-6
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Particles and Health – background and a brief history
• the historical perspective• the epidemiological evidence• a quick look inside the human respiratory system• sources of advice and guidance• methods of quantification
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Deaths and Air Pollution during December 1952 in Greater London
025
050
075
010
00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Day
Dea
ths
010
0020
0030
0040
00SO
2 and
Sm
oke
(µg/
m-3
)
Deaths
SulphurDioxide
Smoke
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Ultrafine particles (source: Univ of Birmingham)
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Real life particles from a street (source: WHO)
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1990s – the epidemiologists’ discoveries
• The ‘Six Cities’ Study• Harvard School of Public Health
• Other supporting North American studies • Utah steel mills
• 7Th Day Adventists
• Results replicated in other countries• Headline: particles associated with mortality, no
threshold of effect
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Particles and Health – What we know
• The epidemiologically observed association between premature death and long term residence in areas with high PM concentrations is robust.
• Deaths appear to be cardio-vascular related.• Similar associations are observed with
exacerbation of asthma and other respiratory disease.
• Proximity to busy roads, with a high density of diesel vehicles, increases the prevalence of negative effects in some studies.
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Why might particles be harmful? A look at the human respiratory system
• Upper respiratory tract• Lower respiratory tract:
• Main Bronchus, 2
• Smaller bronchus, 1,000
• Bronchiole, 2,000
• Terminal bronchiole, 3,000
• Alveolar duct, 30,000,000
• Alveolus, 300,000,000
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Loss in statistical life expectancy in months, attributable to anthropogenic contributions to PM2.5 emissions (2003) (Source: CAFE)
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Calculating mortality for long term exposure to PM2.5
There is 0.6% increase in mortality in a population exposed to an increase of 1 µg m-3 PM2.5 as an annual average concentration
Attributable to Pope et al (2002) and used by COMEAP and CAFE
Used by ERM as the basis for calculating ‘loss of life years’,in conjunction with dispersion model results, population data and the use of ‘life tables’
The key result from epidemiological studies:
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Quantifying the additional health effects – PM10
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Our results – a summary of results for PM10
Outcome Background (per 1,000, per annum)
Additional (per annum, whole population) *
Hospital admission –cardiovascular
14 0.033
Hospital admission -respiratory
7.8 0.033
GP consultation -asthma
64 0.63
Chronic bronchitis 8 0.22
* Note: whole population considered = 26,431
Background data from national statistics – available information from Hospital Episode Statistics on-line
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Our result for PM2.5
• A total of 0.62 years life lost across the population of 26,431
• Or, put another way, equal to 12 minutes per person if the effect is distributed uniformly
• Recall that the current impact of PM2.5 is about 8-9 months of life lost for each person in England
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Summary
• Changes to local air quality calculated using a dispersion model – impact is small relative to existing concentrations
• Full compliance with air quality standards• Risks to health of dioxins and metals examined
through full risk assessment model – risk is very small and within tolerability criterion
• Effects of exposure to additional concentrations of particles quantified and compared to existing health outcomes