Robert T. Dunphy, ULIRobert T. Dunphy, ULISmart Transportation WorkshopSmart Transportation Workshop

PennDOT, HarrisburgPennDOT, HarrisburgJune 27, 2007

Smart transportation and Smart Development

Significant investment in transit is eroding

1990-2000 Census for Pennsylvania

Percent Change in Transportation Mode 1990-2000

Carpool

Drive

TransitWalk

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

National Total

Pennsylvania

Major transit cities losing ground

Source: Federal Highway Administration

Percent Change in Transportation Mode 1990-2000

Drive

Carpool

Transit Walk

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Philadelphia

Pittsburgh

National

Annual Transit Ridership ~ Millions

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Philadelphia Pittsburgh PA

In M

illi

on

s 1980

1990

2000

2005

Traffic growth without population growth

Population and Congestion Growth

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

Pittsburgh Baltimore Philadelphia

Percent Population Growth1992-1999

Percent Vehicle MilesTraveled Increased 1990-1997

Percent Congestion Increase1992-1999

Sprawl far Outweighs Population GrowthPopulation increase and Acres of Open Space Developed

1982 to 1997

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Population Increase Acres Developed

In t

ho

us

an

ds

Other Open Space

Prime Crop Land

Population

Sprawl & congestion, no growth

Deteriorating Infrastructure, Growing Congestion 8,500 miles of road in poor condition8,500 miles of road in poor condition 5,000 deficient bridges5,000 deficient bridges $500 million funding gap for transit$500 million funding gap for transit

Pennsylvania is not alone

How are we doing – ASCEAmerica’s Infrastructure D

Drinking Water: D

Roads: D

National Power Grid: D

Transit: D+

Aviation: D+

Freight : C-

ASCE Infrastructure Report Card

“We’re suffering death by a thousand cuts, and no one is

willing to face up to it. If a crisis isn’t created, then there is no

need for an immediate response.”

“An approaching train wreck.”

Highway Trust FundGoing Bankrupt

-10

0

10

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

$ Billions$ Billions

Source: Congressional Budget OfficeSource: Congressional Budget Office

Projected year-end balanceProjected year-end balance

Approaching Infrastructure Crisis

Suburban transport / land use model no Suburban transport / land use model no longer works longer works

Lack of connections and integrationLack of connections and integration Car dependency, shrinking transitCar dependency, shrinking transit Increasing congestionIncreasing congestion Higher driving costsHigher driving costs

Good News

Driving is low

FHWA, Highway Statistics 2004

Philadelphia

Pittsburgh

0 10 20 30 40

New York-NE NJHonolulu

PhiladelphiaMiami-Hialeah

Buffalo-Nia FallsBoston

Chicago-NW IN Cleveland

SacramentoPittsburgh

DenverSan Fran-Oakland

Los AngelesWashington

Portland-VancSan Jose

San DiegoDetroit

Minneapolis-St. PaulSeattle

PhoenixJacksonville

St. LouisSan Antonio

CharlotteDallas-Fort Worth

AtlantaHouston

West

South, SW

East

Mid West

Transit Share is High

26%

21%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Wash

ingto

n, DC

Boston

San F

rancis

co

Chicag

o

Philadel

phia

Pittsburg

h

Baltim

ore

Seattl

e

Atlanta

Clevel

and

Denver

Commute Time Up, Still Low

21.6

25.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 2000

Source: US Census Bureau

Min

utes

Downtown Population Growing

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Lower Manhattan Pittsburgh Baltimore Philadelphia Boston

% C

hang

e in

Pop

ulat

ion

Source: Eugenie L. Birch“Who Lives Downtown?”, Brookings, 1990-2000 US Census

Housing and TransportSpending Affordable

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Boston, M

A

Chicag

o, IL

Dallas,

TX

Denver,

CO

Los Angel

es, C

A

New York

, NY

Philadel

phia, P

A

Pittsb

urgh, P

A

Transportation

Housing

•Infill•Redevelop Suburban Centers•Growing Smarter on the Fringe

The Growth Component

Green Infrastructure

Green Infrastructure

Green Infrastructure

CulturalEcologicalDevelopmentalAgriculturalRecreational [GreenSpaceDesign.org]

Equal footingEqual footing Must have Must have Preserves places, Preserves places,

protects development protects development

Centers of Concentrated Mixed Use

Multiple Connections Enhance Circulation

Keep Local trips on local streets

Expand Transportation Choices

Transport Choices Must be Built in, Not Added on Later Transit readyTransit ready Build it, they will walkBuild it, they will walk

Make it Easy to Do the Right Thing

Sprawl results from the Implementation of Public Policy

Where Will The Money Come From?

PrivatizationPrivatization Increasing User FeesIncreasing User Fees

Increasing TaxesIncreasing Taxes

Likely37%

Indifferent19%

Unlikely45% Likely

73%

Indifferent3%

Unlikely24%

Likely62%

Indifferent3%

Unlikely35%

Sources: ULI survey of directors of planning for state departments of transportationSources: ULI survey of directors of planning for state departments of transportation

“You can’t have everybodydo their own thing” Break down silosBreak down silos Focus on sustainabilityFocus on sustainability Comprehensive, multi-disciplinary plansComprehensive, multi-disciplinary plans Integrated regional schemesIntegrated regional schemes

No Political Will

The Holy TrinityThe Holy Trinity No new taxesNo new taxes No new tollsNo new tolls No higher toll feesNo higher toll fees

•Don’t let congestion rule•Expand choices •Someone has to pay•Pick good projects

The Transport Component

Public Transit

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

Consumer Government

In M

illi

on

s

Private v. Public Spending

Consumer v Government Spending in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh

Private v. Public SpendingDriving

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

Consumer Government

In M

illio

ns

Consumer v Government Spending in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh

Long Range Budgets ~ Billions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Pittsburgh Philadelphia Baltimore

Other

Transit

Highway

Follow the money

13 c/ gallon < a penny a mile13 c/ gallon < a penny a mile Gas tax losing steamGas tax losing steam TollsTolls Congestion charges - VMTCongestion charges - VMT

Leveraging State Investment

PennDOT - $1.2billion capital spending annually.

Another $.96 billion is need.

Pennsylvania has $2.8billion of programs and grants to bolster business growth and sustain communities.

Smart Growth and Infrastructure Improvements will bolster business and sustain communities.

Toward Sustainability - Community Fix it first Fix it first Choice, controlled congestionChoice, controlled congestion Focus growth to reduce new transportFocus growth to reduce new transport Sustainable fundingSustainable funding The right projects reinforce smart The right projects reinforce smart

developmentdevelopment Get the price right Get the price right

Greenhouse Gas Emissions – the new wild cardCalifornia’s Attorney General - State Law AB 32

Limit sprawlLimit sprawl Promote compact developmentPromote compact development Encourage less driving, more transitEncourage less driving, more transit Address water supply issuesAddress water supply issues

Infrastructure 2007Infrastructure 2007Infrastructure 2007Infrastructure 2007

A Global PerspectiveA Global PerspectiveA Global PerspectiveA Global Perspective

Thanks!Robert T. Dunphy www.uli.org 800-321-5011