Robert BalfanzEveryone Graduates CenterJohns Hopkins University

March 2011

What New Hampshire Can Do to Achieve Zero Dropouts

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We are at the start of what promises and needs to be a transformational decade in American Public Education

Common college and career ready standards

Next generation assessmentsIndividual level longitudinal data Push for greater teacher effectivenessSmart integration of technologyHolds promise of revolutionary

improvements

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But too many students are still attending low achieving high-

poverty schools where

Achievement gaps become achievement chasms

High school graduation is not the norm

Few high school graduates complete college

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In New Hampshire and the Nation

A small percent of schools drive the dropout crisis and achievement gap

Nationally, 1650 high schools produce 50% of the dropouts

In New Hampshire 15 high schools produce close to 57% of non-completers. Ten of these schools may be losing 100 plus students per high school class (really good data should be available soon)

The Good News is graduation rates are rising-national graduation rate up from 72 to 75% between 2002 and 2008, New Hampshire rate up from 78 to 83% (using federal average freshmen graduation rate measure)

If learning is inherently joyful and exciting and students want to succeed, why do some schools fail?

Because By and Large they are not Designed or Organized to Succeed

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Three Hypotheses on WhyUnderestimate the degree or nature of

a school’s educational challenge

Fail to meet students’ needs

Fail to integrate efforts to make attending school worthwhile with efforts to make schools places where students and teachers want to be and want to work hard

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1) Understanding Educational Challenge

Schools do not succeed when their educational challenge exceeds the available human resources that are wisely and diligently applied

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Three Parts To a School’s Educational

Challenge

Academic Challenge - How many students enter the school behind grade level or without expected foundational skills or knowledge?

Engagement Challenge - How many students enter the school having already been chronically absent, in behavioral trouble, or having failed a course because they did not turn in their work?

Poverty Challenge - How many students enter school having experienced prolonged exposure to poverty, violence, homelessness, agency involvement, and/or lack of stable access to basic needs?

Philadelphia Case Study:

The Educational Challenge of the Ninth-Grade/High-Poverty Neighborhood High Schools vs. Selective Admission Magnets

Percentage of 9th Graders who are On-Age, First Time Freshmen with 80%+ Attendance in 8th Grade and Math and Reading Skills at the 7th Grade Level

or Higher by High School

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Per

cent

Magnet Schools

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We Will Know We Are Making Progress When . .

.

Schools commonly know in detail the scale and scope of the educational challenge they face

They are organized structurally and programmatically with evidence-based practices to meet it

Educational challenge influences resource allocation

Students who succeed at four transition points

-- Grades 1-6-9-12 –

Succeed

2) Meeting the Needs of Students

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At Each Transition Students Have Different Academic and

Social Needs

Pre-K and Elementary Grades - Core academic competencies and need to be socialized into the norms of school in a joyful manner

Middle Grades - Intermediate academic skills (reading comprehension and fluency, transition from arithmetic to mathematics) and a need for adventure and camaraderie

High School - Transition to adult behaviors and mind set and a path to college and career readiness, as well as the right extra help for students with skills below grade level

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Challenges to Post-Secondary Success

What worked in high school does not work in college

Student effort is the final frontier -- I will apply myself when I need to

Lack of college-going culture or expectations

Pull of family responsibility

Move from high-support to low-support environment

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Major FindingStudents in high-poverty schools who

successfully navigate grades 6 to 10 on time and on track, by and large, graduate from high school (75% or higher grad rates)

Students in high-poverty schools who struggle and become disengaged in the early secondary grades and in particular have an unsuccessful 6th- and/or 9th- grade transition do not graduate (25% or less grad rates)

In High-Poverty School Districts, 75% of Eventual Dropouts Can be Identified between 6th and 9th Grades

Percent of Dropouts That Can Be Identified between the 6th and 9th

grade-Boston Class of 2003

32%

43%24%

End of 6th Grade

End of 9th Grade

No Off TrackIndicator 6th-9thGrade

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Students Must Be Motivated To Attend, Behave and Try

Robert Balfanz and Liza Herzog, Johns Hopkins University; Philadelphia Education Fund

The Primary Off-Track Indicators for Potential

Dropouts:• Attendance - < 85-90%

school attendance

• Behavior - “unsatisfactory” behavior mark in at least one class

• Course Performance - A final grade of “F” in math and/or English or credit-bearing high school course

Sixth Graders (1996-97) with an Early Warning Indicator

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

6th

7th

8th

9th

10th

11th

12th

Gradu

ation

+ 1

year

Grade in School

% of students

who are on-track to

graduation

Attendance

Behavior

Math

Literacy

Sixth-grade students with one or more of the indicators may have only a 15% to 25% chance of graduating from high school on time or within

one year of expected graduationNote: Early Warning Indicator graph from Philadelphia research which has been replicated in 10 cities.

The cost of inaction is high. School disengagement, precedes involvement with the juvenile justice system and teenage pregnancy

Males Incarcerated in High School-Philadelphia

33%

67%

No 6th GradeIndicator

6th Grade OffTrack Indicator

Females Who Give Birth in High School-Philadelphia

33%

67%

No 6th GradeIndicator

6th Grade OffTrack Indicator

The Good News:

Attendance, behavior and effort drive achievement and enable students to stay on track to graduation

This means we can have integrated solutions

Achievement Gain

GPA

Attendance

Behavior

Parental Involvement

Academic Press

Teacher Support

Utility

1

Intrinsic Interest

Figure 3Structural Equation Model

Environmental Context of Student Learnging and Achievement

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We Need to Combine School Transformation with Early Warning and Enhanced Student Support and Recovery

Systems

Highest needs students are over-concentrated in sub-set of schools

Can be hundreds of students who need additional supports beyond a good teacher in every classroom

Currently not enough adults are mobilized to meet these needs, leading to triage, burnout, disengagement, and high mobility rates among students and adults

Students signal early and often that they need help; we need to recognize and respond to this with the right intervention at the right time at the scale and intensity required

To do this we need to be able to mobilize and organize a “second shift” of adults for the school and school day

Even best prevention and intervention systems will not catch all kids; effective back-on-track and recovery strategies/opportunities are needed

Early Warning Indicator Data ToolStu

den

t

07-08: Days

Absent

08-09: Days

Absent07-08: Att.%

08-09: Att.% Dec Mar Dec Mar Dec Mar

Reading Grade Level

Math PSSA 2008

Literacy PSSA 2008

A 9 19 95% 84% 5 6 C D D C 8 Proficient Basic

B 12 13 93% 89% 7 8 D C F D 6.5Below Basic

Basic

C 48 69 73% 43% 10 10 F F F D 5.5Below Basic

Below Basic

AssessmentsMath

GradesAttendanceBehavior

CommentsLiteracy Grades

• Without additional support to provide interventions at the scale and intensity required to meet each student’s needs, teachers can easy feel overwhelmed. 

• Research has shown that when teachers feel overwhelmed by the level of challenge in high-needs schools, they will often lower expectations for students.

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Link Early Warning Systems to Tiered Interventions

Focus on effective intervention, not just identification Need to be able to respond to the first signs that a student is

falling off track-No Triage Have diagnostic tools to deduce if student behavior is driven

by academic, socio-emotional needs or both Systematically apply school-wide preventative, targeted and

intensive interventions until students are on-track Recognize and build on student strengths Provide time, training, and support to teachers Match resources to student needs but practice intervention

discipline Evaluate the effectiveness of interventions Remember you can get started with the data in your school

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A Simple Grid for a Powerful Analysis

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We Will Know We Are Making Progress When . . .

Schools have strong prevention strategies and cultures that encourage students to attend, behave, and try

Schools have readily accessible and teacher friendly diagnostic tools to understand the academic and socio-emotional needs behind student disengagement

Schools are organized so teams of teachers work with manageable numbers of students, supported by a second shift of adults, with time built in and honored during the school day for collaborative data-driven work

Clear and supported pathways to college and career readiness at the scale and intensity required from sixth grade to post-secondary

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Big Challenge AheadIntegrating teacher review of

benchmark data linked to assessments of new common standards and early warning indicator data linked to student behaviors

Lack of time in the school schedule for two meetings

Each piece of data informs the other

3) The Effort Gap

The outcome of school needs to be worthwhile and schools need to be places where students and teachers want to be and work hard

Because time and attention are limited we tend to focus on one or the other of these essential aspects

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Needed Capacity building-for students ,educators, parents, districts, states

Build Teacher and Student buy in for the effort required to reach college and career readiness for all

Re-Think School Day/Week/Year- to do this but avoid money traps along the way

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Capacity BuildingStudents-resiliency, goal setting, self

management and organization skills Teachers-collaborative diagnostic and

intervention skills (not a GP but House)Districts and States-managing a portfolio of

schools with different structures and partners that provide capacities

Districts and States- Being able to integrate a spatial analysis of the variation of educational challenges faced by schools with a longitudinal cohort analysis of who is succeeding and why, and how new cohorts may differ from prior ones

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We Know We Have Made Progress When

Schools and districts routinely put in the focus and energy preparing for the next cohort of students that professional football teams put into preparing for their next game

Collaborative efforts between teachers, schools, districts and states establish the mutually supportive functions equal to those needed to put on a Broadway play

We train with the intensity and the smarts of the Military

We need to be honest that there is a gap between teacher’s having high expectations and student’s having high aspirations and a strong belief that that they will be realized. This leads to diminished effort.

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Re-Thinking the School Day, Week, Year to Enable Greater Teacher and Student Effort

Time is underutilized asset but if we get extend time wrong it’s a money trap

Area rip for disciplined inquiry and evaluation-States to the lead?

How can we structure the school day/week to enable collaborative work among teachers and success supports and intellectual enrichment for students?

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We Need Different Strategies for Different Types of Low

Performing Schools

Locked Capacity-Low Expectations

Overwhelmed by Educational Challenge

Habituated Dysfunction

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Need to analyze and improve the odds of success before we start. Ask is

there evidence of-

Know-How- selecting effective reforms which match nature of the need

Capacity- the ability to collectively implement the interventions and reforms at the scale and intensity required

Will- the desire and belief needed to do the work required and to overcome obstacles and set backs

Absence of Excessive Turbulence- change requires stability and focus

Need to Strategically Partner Low Performing Schools with Community Supports, a Second Shift of Adults and Technical Assistance to Meet the Scale and Scope of Student Need

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An Example of Strategic Partnerships to Meet

Educational Need and Increase Student and Teacher

Effort

The Diplomas Now partners harness and combine their unique assets to keep students on track, college and career ready

Core Function

Means and Methods Additional Roles

Whole School

• Research based instructional, organizational and teacher support

• On-track indicator data system • On-site implementation and mission

building support • Scheduling, Staffing, and Budget

supports

• Extra Academic Supports

• Extra Behavior Supports

• National Training and Tech Assistance Partner (Phil. Ed. Fund)

Targeted Supports

• Whole-School, Whole-Child program• 8-15 full-time, full-day corps

members serving as near-peer role models to mentor, tutor, provide behavior and attendance coaching and extended day learning

• Positive School Climate

• Service Learning• After School

Intensive Supports

• School-based professional Site Coordinator

• Highly specialized and intensive interventions via case managed student supports and referral to outside agencies

• Brokered services through CIS partners

• Episodic Whole School Prevention Supports

On-Track Indicator and Intervention System:

• Research-based and validated interventions of increasing intensity are employed until student is back on track to graduation. Interventions are constantly evaluated for their effectiveness.

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What States Can DoHelp Districts Map Educational Challenge in their

Low Achieving Schools Develop Means to Assess if Proposed School

Reform Designs will Meet a School’s Educational Challenge and if the School/District has the Capacity to Implement them

Develop Interim Indicators for School Improvement Progress which at least for the Secondary Grades (6-12) include the A,B.C’s (Attendance Behavior, and Course Performance).

Measure and Report on Chronic Absenteeism (missing a month or more of school-20 days).

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What States Can Do cont.Help Support the Development, Spread, and Use of

Early Warning and Intervention Systems-with a focus on intervention

Develop and spread models for integrating review of benchmark achievement data and student early warning indicator data at the teacher (team) level.

Help Develop Capacity among districts and schools through facilitated networks so we can learn from success, by creating a common repository of effective tools for different situations and types of low achieving schools, and strategic partnering

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What States Can Do cont.Work together to figure out most powerful and

cost-effective way to extend learning time

Invest in building state capacity to help districts and schools with resource allocation-how people, time, and money can be better organized to meet a school’s educational challenge, meet the needs of students (in particular at key transition points) and to increase internal motivation and belief that hard work will pay off

Join the Civic Marshall Plan to Build A Grad Nation

Building a Grad Nation & The Civic Marshall Plan

Contained within Building a Grad Nation, The Civic Marshall Plan outlines a targeted and phased approach for ending the dropout crisis and achieving the nation’s 90% graduation rate goal by 2020

Establishes annual benchmarks and accountability for measuring progress

Highlights the need for a multi-sector approach and the role of non-profits and National Service in ending the dropout crisis

Coauthored by Civic Enterprises, The Everyone Graduates Center at Johns Hopkins, and the America’s Promise Alliance

National graduation rate has increased to 75%

13% reduction in dropout factories

Still over 1 million dropouts per year

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For More InformationVisit the Everyone Graduates Center at

www.every1graduates.orgContact Robert Balfanz at

rbalfanz@csos.jhu.edu