Roadmap for a Green Transition of Australia’s Built Environment

Dr Peter W NewtonChief Scientist, CSIRO Manufacturing & Infrastructure TechnologiesDirector, Sustainable Built Assets Program, CRC Construction Innovation

e6417 Keynote PresentationSustainable Buildings StreamEnvisioning a Sustainable Built Environment SessionEnviro 06 Convention, Melbourne, 11 May 2006

Why should our cities be #1 priority for the Australian government?

“we will neglect our cities to our peril, for in neglecting them we neglect the nation” J.F. Kennedy, 30 January 1962 http://home.att.net/~jrhsc/jfk.html Reorganisation Plan 1 of 1962 to establish a new cabinet-level Department of Urban Affairs & Housing

Australia’s built environment represents 40% of the nation’s total asset base ($3 500 billion in 2001); natural capital represents 33%

Built environments are where all Australians live, where 95% work and where over 90% of the nation’s GDP is generated

Their design, planning, construction & operation are fundamental to:

the productivity & competitiveness of the economythe well-being of all citizensthe ecological sustainability of the continent

Australia’s built environment faces major sustainability challenges in the 21st century

Glass Half Empty:Key Vulnerabilities and

Challenges

Roadmap for Transitioning Australia’s Cities to a More Sustainable Future

OriginFromNow

Destination To

Future (2030 – 2050+)

Glass Half Full:Opportunities for Key

Sustainability Transitions

Looming vulnerabilities:

Increasing per capita and total resource consumptionFossil fuel dependence, GHG build-up, global warming & climate change and their negative impacts on citiesRunning short of oil (transport & mobility impacts)Sustainable yield of water

Increasing waste generation and disposalResource depleting and polluting building materials manufacture & construction + operating processes; lack of cradle-to-cradle perspective

Patchiness of environmental quality within cities (eg contamination of some rivers, estuaries, groundwater, soil; biodiversity and green space loss; noise, urban air quality (especially small particles and smog episodes)

Environmental Sustainability Challenges for Australian Built Environments:

Key Challenge: Sustainable Energy System

ResidentialCommercial

IndustrialTransport

Energy CO2

12.26.5

43.338.0

100%3160 PJ

17.512.045.025.5

100%295 MT

End Use

Energy - Economic Growth Nexus Energy - Greenhouse NexusStrong reliance on low priced fossil fuel sources of energy (<5% renewables)Energy consumption increasing by 2.2% pa to 2020; in excess of rate of population growth (ABARE, 2005)

Energy Consumption per capita and per dollar of GDP 1970-71 to 2001-02 and projected to 2019-20

Source: Akmal, M., Thorpe, S., Dickson, A., Burg, G. and Klijn, N. 2004, Australian Energy: National and State Projections to 2019-20, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, eReport 04.11. p.2.

Energy consumption per capita and per dollar of GDP

Key Challenge: Reducing GHG Emissions

By 2003, Australia’s net GHG emissions were 550 Mt CO2 – equivalent

Challenge: radically improving end use energy efficiency

ManufacturingBuildingsTransport

Challenge: improving efficiency of electricity generation + radically reducing reliance on non-renewable fossil fuels for electricity generation (stationary energy)

Challenge: switch to renewables (current federal target modest compared to OECD)

Greenhouse Gas Emissions by End Use Activity (1999)

Source: George Wilkenfeld & Assoc (22003); www.greenhouse.gov.au

Source: National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (2003) AGO (2005);www.greenhouse.gov.au

Key Challenge: Climate Change and Settlement Vulnerability

Temperature

• Droughts, lower water yields for catchments;

• Cities running out of water

• Increase in urban heat island effect

• Flooding

• Increase in risk of loss of life and property by fire in peri-urban areas

Rainfall Variability

Temperatures across Melbourne on a still and clear night (Source: BOM 2006)

Lake Eildon, May 2003 (9% capacity; 41m below full level; source: Bumbers, 2006)

Climate Change and Settlement Vulnerability

Sea level• Increase in erosion

and loss of shoreline• Higher risk of storm

surge damageNoosa Main BeachEroded rock wall 1972-73 (Source: P. Couglin, Beach Protection Authority Queensland)

Noosa Beach early 1960’sStill in its natural form

Cyclones ?• Increase in number

and/or intensity of cyclones ?

Source - Cyclone Damage in Innisfail North Queensland, The Courier Mail News, March 2006

The forecast population growth in Australia’s cities to 2030 cannot be supported without:

New and alternative sources of water (approx 800gl/yr)Further water conservation (approx 325gl/yr)

Key Challenge: Urban Water Supply Capacity versus Demand

Source: WSAA Position Paper 1 2005

Key Challenge: Australia’s Oil Production and Consumption, 1965 – 2030

– a Nation Running Out of Oil

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1 11 21 31 41 51 611965 202520051985

1.0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Geoscience Australia, APPEA, ABARE

Million barrels/day

Actual Forecast

Consumption

Production

P50

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

% C

hang

e

20%

34%

47%

58%

Population Car Trips (All) No. Cars Car Use (VKT)

VKT Explosion

-1.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00

10.00

Sydney

Melbou

rneBris

bane

Adelai

dePert

hCanb

erra

Estim

ated

Cos

t $ b

illio

n

-

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

Estim

ated

rat

e $

per

pcu-

km 1995 Congestioncost 2015 Congestioncost 1995 Cost rate

2015 Cost rate

COSTLY CONGESTION

Personal mobility (car use) is increasing at a faster rate than other transport indicators would suggest

Key Challenge: Car Dependence & Urban Transport

Annual ave. rates of growth (1991-2001)

And EmissionsA $30 Billion/year cost to the economy

Ozone

02468

1012

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030Year

Days Fine Particles

05

10152025

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Year

Days

Without more robust action, the number of days of fair to poor air quality will worsen

Predictions for Melbourne courtesy of EPA Victoria

Key Challenge: Urban Air Pollution

emissions

pollution

exposure

Key Challenge: Air Quality and Human Health

Key Challenge: Waste Generation and Disposal

Across most waste (potential resource) stream categories there remains a linear attitude of: consume – use – dispose;bypassing key steps of the waste minimisation hierarchy: waste avoidance, re-use, re-cycling, re-processing, recovery)Total volume of solid waste disposed to landfill across Australia remains high at approx 1 tonne per person per year and has increased for some states (Vic, WA). 1997 – 2003.

Key Challenge: To Enhance the Performance of Australia’s Cities

Humanwell being

Resource inputs

Urban systems and processes

Urban environ-mental quality Resource

inputs

(Present settlements) (Future settlements)

Desired change

• Reduced resource use• Improved urban systems

& processes

• Reduced waste & emissions

• Improved urban environmental quality• Greater liveability & well-being

From To

Humanwell being

Urban environ-mental quality

Waste and emissions

Urban systems and processes

Waste and emissions

Six Key Transitions Needed to Create More Sustainable Urban Landscapes

Water & Wastewater Integrated urban water systems, water sensitive urban design

Energy Renewable energy, solar cities, distributed energy systems, hydrogen economy

Solid Waste Generation, Resource Depletion

“Waste as resource” Cradle – to – cradle manufacturing and construction; product stewardship; eco- industrial clusters

Transport & Landuse

Population & Consumption

Integrated landuse-transport planning and design: co-ordinated planning for improved public transport, higher densities, multi-nodal development [intentionally re-shaping cities] + key changes in transport supply and demand

Less materialistic & wasteful consumer society; reduced ecological footprint

Buildings & Urban Form Eco-efficient buildings and urban systems

Invent RoadTest

Networkfor adoption established

BuildCritical mass

FullyAdopted

PROPENSITY TO ANNOY

EVERYBODYPROPENSITY TO WANT TO CATCH

UP

Extent of Diffusion orOf Take-upInnovation

Ren

ewab

le h

ydro

gen

econ

omy

Inte

grat

ed u

rban

wat

er s

yste

ms

Eco

-indu

stria

l clu

ster

s

Dis

tribu

ted

ener

gy

Wat

er s

ensi

tive

urba

n de

sign

Ene

rgy

effic

ient

des

ign

(hou

sing

)

Process of Transitioning to New Ideas

High

Low

Virtu

al p

roto

type

s of

bui

ldin

gs

Key Transition: Virtual Building and Eco-Efficiency Assessment

Direct from CADto Analysis

Example: Comparing Eco Efficiency of Alternative Facades via LCA Design

Pre-Cast Concrete Panel Brick Masonry Glass Curtain

Wall

Low Glass

High BrickMid Concrete

Key Transition: Closing the Loop –Integrated Urban Water System

Receiving water

WWTP

Stormwater runoff

Dams and reservoirs

House

Wastewater

Factory

Waste Water Treatment Plant

CityCBD

Receiving water

WWTP

Wastewater

Dams and reservoirs

Environmental flowsReuse

Stormwater utilisation

From: Linear Urban Water System(divert use dispose)

To: Integrated Urban Water System(diverted water + stormwater + waste water)

The Urban Water Balance

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Gig

alitr

es p

er y

ear

Sydney Melbourne

Water Use Wastewater Stormwater

Stormwater pond, wetland, retention pond

Infiltration trench

Porous pavement

Grass swale

Aquifer storage andrecovery (ASR)

PP

Decentralized wastewater treatment plant

Rainwater tankH2O

Bottled water supply

On-site non-standardfire sprinkler system

Incentives (non-price)

Car washing on pervious surfaces

Xeroscape

AAA rated taps

AAA rated shower

Front-loading clothes washing machine

Eco-efficient toilet

Key Transition:Urban Water Systems of the Future

Decentralised systems and many different

technologies

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

Year

GW

h

Supply from Existing Plant

Demand (ESAA)

A $30b+ opportunity for new technology implementation

Many existing plants still operating in 2030

In 2005/6, the Australian electricity supply and demand curves cross -an opportunity that we cannot let slip.

The Emerging Electricity Demand – Supply Gap: Opportunity for Energy Transition

Potential Energy Transitions

Nuclear Energy: Stationary OK for GHG, but issues of disposal of spentfuel, safety and nuclear proliferation. For transport, requires energy carrier and storage media

Renewable Energy: Load levelling requires storage media.Transport requires energy carrier

Bio – Fuels: Crops, forest residue etc are energy intensive plus limited fuel stock and land relative to demand.

Fossil Fuels with Co2 Sequestration: Short term solution – not a sustainable energy path. For transport, an energycarrier and storage media is required.

For Transport Sector, the direct use of electricity as an alternative to liquid fuels in motor vehicle is not feasible.

Base load coal fired power station η~33.1%

Transmission losses ~ 8%

Effective energy utilisation ~28.5%

Distribution losses ~6%

Existing Centralised Industry

NewDistributed Industry

Key Transition: Shift from Centralised to Distributed Energy

Distributed Energy Scenarios:

CBD emergency generator sets used to solve peak supply isses (eg 400 MW available in Sydney and Melbourne CBDs – equivalent to Basslinkcapacity ($500M cost; www.forseechange.com/newgengen.htm) Challenges = aggregation, market connectivity, emissions

Most homes and businesses extremely energy efficient PLUS incorporate DG so largely self-sufficient trade energy into retail market, better matching supply with demand energy flows in both directions in comparable volume through a national grid

Present

Future

Key Transition: Hydrogen Economy

Hydrogen is an excellent energy carrier and storage media. Its combustion at highly distributed end use sites (eg vehicles, dwellings, buildings, industrial plant etc) generates no pollution on GHG.

Hydrogen offers a sustainable energy future especially if it is generated using renewable energy sources.

Hydrogen offers a link with existing fossil-fuel-based urban infrastructures and technologies plus future clean energy generation

Key Transition: Eco-Industrial Clusters

Single Enterprise SolutionsCradle-to-cradle manufacture; product stewardshipGreen procurement

Multiple Enterprise SolutionsEco-industrial clustersMapping waste streamsCharacterising waste flowsWaste – to resource conversion technologiesNew industriesPlanning for eco-industrial parks

Company

EIP = eco-industrial park

EIN = eco-industrial network

IP = conventional industrial park

+ by-product exchanges

Key Transition: Urban Transport

1. Transport Supply:

2. Transport Demand:

3. Transport and Landuse:

Transport supply – side change via introduction of hybrid/hydrogen vehicles positive impact on fossil fuel use, air pollution, not congestion

Transport demand – side change via ITS, road/congestion pricing, telecommuting etc reduce road congestion

Integrated landuse-transport planning and design: co-ordinated planning for improved public transport, higher densities, multi-nodal development [intentionally re-shaping cities]

…the design of our citiesis important for air quality and energy use, and green-house gas emissions

CB

D

Corridor City

Ultra CityEdge CityBusiness-As-Usual(dispersed city)

Compact City

Out

erM

iddl

eIn

ner

Fringe City

ALTERNATIVE URBAN FORMS

BASE1990

CORR2011

COMP2011

EDGE2011

FRINGE2011

BAU2011

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

EXPO

SUR

EEX

POSU

RE

(ppm

(ppm

-- peo

ple

peop

le-- h

ours

x 1

000)

hour

s x

1000

)

Melbourne - smog exposure‘Low Density Suburbanisation’ the worst

air quality outcome

Modelling Environmental Performance of Alternative Urban Forms

Effect of urban form on fuel use: projections for different city forms in 2011

Key Transition: Towards More Sustainable Urban Forms

Compact City form delivers 40% reduction in transport energy use

(Low density suburbanisation)

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Hou

seho

ld D

ebt (

% h

ouse

hold

dis

posa

ble

inco

me)

Pe

ople

con

cern

ed a

bout

the

envi

ronm

ent (

%)

25

27

29

31

33

35

37

39

41

GD

P pe

r cap

ita ($

/000

)

The Ultimate Transition: Changing Human BehaviourReversing the Cross-over Between Materialism and Environmental Concern

Source: P W Newton, Measuring Urban Performance (2005)

Thank You

CMITName Dr Peter W NewtonTitle Chief ScientistPhone +61 03 9252 6126Email peter.newton@csiro.auWeb www.csiro.au/group

Contact CSIROPhone 1300 363 400

+61 3 9545 2176Email enquiries@csiro.auWeb www.csiro.au