RM World 2014: Massive data analysis on an aircraft fleet reliability process

08/11/2014

Massive Data Analysis on an

Aircraft Fleet Reliability Process

This information is property of Embraer and cannot be used or reproduced without written permission.

Our business is to generate valuefor our shareholders, customers,employees and society,with behavioral integrity, and an environmental and social conscience.

EMBRAER: GLOBAL COMPANYHEADQUARTERED IN BRAZIL.

WE HAVE DEVELOPED OUR

BUSINESS IN THE AREAS OF:

COMMERCIAL AVIATION

EXECUTIVEAVIATION


EMBRAERDEFENSE &

SECURITY

EMBRAER YESTERDAY AND TODAYSuccess story

Controlled by the Federal Government, Embraer is born in order to develop Brazil’s aeronautical engineering capacity and to produce airplanes.

19692014

1994

1949One of the mainglobal manufacturersof commercial andexecutive aircraft, with strong and growing involvement indefense and security.

The companyis privatized, leading to a new structure that combinestechnologicaland industrial knowledge withan entrepreneurial culture.

Brazil creates strategic national aeronautics project – creation of CTA and ITA.



WE ARE HERE TO SERVE OUR CUSTOMERS

COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Regional Jets

37 seatsrange*: 1,750 nmLR versionCruise 0.78 M



50 seatsrange*: 2,000 nmXL versionCruise 0.80 M

* Single-class configuration: pitch 31” - FAR domestic reserves (45 min) + alternate of 100 nm; 91 kg (200 lb) per pax and 76 kg (168 lb) per crew member



E-Jets

70 to 78 seatsrange*: 2,100 nm




* AR Version, single-class configuration: pitch 32”- Long-Range Cruise, FAR domestic reserves (45 min) + alternate of 100 nm; 100 kg (220 lb)

per pax and 80 kg (176 lb) per crew member.

COMMERCIAL AVIATION



Behold the power of 2, the second generation.

Efficient Power

Pratt & Whitney´s ultra-high-performance PW1700G and PW1900G GTF power plants.

New wing designs

Economy is further enhanced by uniquely sophisticated high-efficiency and high-aspect-ratio new wing designs.

Major cockpit-to-cabin innovations

Full fly-by-wire flight controls and next generation avionics, plus new cabin configurations.

COMMERCIAL AVIATION

E-Jets E2 E175-E2 / E190-E2 / E195-E2

EXECUTIVE JETS



* LRC, 4 occupants with 91 kg (200 lb) each, and NBAA IFR

reserves with 100 nm alternate airport

* LRC, 6 occupants with 91 kg (200 lb) each, and NBAA IFR


6 to 8 occupantsrange*: 1,178 nm / 2,182 km

8 to 11 occupantsrange*: 1,971 nm / 3,650 km

Entry Level Light

EXECUTIVE AVIATION




* LRC, 4 passengers + 2 pilots with

91 kg (200 lb) each and NBAA IFR





7 to 9 passengers+ 2 crew membersrange*: 2,300 nm /4,260 km


Midlight Midsize






Super Midsize Large




EXECUTIVE AVIATION




Ultra-Large

*M 0.78, 8 passengers + 3 crew members with 91 kg (200 lb) each,

and NBAA IFR reserves with 200 nm alternate airport

13 to 19 passengers+ 3 crew membersrange*: 4,400 nm / 8,149 km

EXECUTIVE AVIATION




EMBRAER DEFENSE & SECURITY

Light Attack and Advanced Training

Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) Systems

A-29 Super Tucano

EMB ISR AEW&C / MP / Multi-Intel

Tactical Military Transport

Transport of Authorities

Aircraft Modernization

Unmanned Air Vehicle (UAV)

KC-390

EMBRAER DEFENSE & SECURITY


.


GLOBAL

PRESENCE IS

OUR FRONTIER


CHINABeijing

Harbin - HEAI

SINGAPORESingapore

BRAZILSão José dos Campos

Gavião Peixoto

Botucatu

Taubaté

Brasília

Belo Horizonte

São Paulo

Rio de Janeiro

Sorocaba

Campinas

FRANCEVillepinte

Le Bourget

PORTUGALAlverca - OGMA

Évora

UNITED

STATESNashville

Fort Lauderdale

Melbourne

Mesa

Windsor Locks

Jacksonville


UNITED KINGDOMFarnborough

UAEDubai

IRELANDDublin

NETHERLANDSAmsterdam

GLOBAL PRESENCE IS OUR FRONTIER

21 August 2014 16

Big Data World Scenario

Problem Overview

CRISP-DM Methodology

RapidMiner Process

AIRCRAFT RELIABILITY DATA ANALYSISAIRCRAFT RELIABILITY DATA ANALYSIS

21 August 2014 17

The Advanced Analytics uses mathematical and statisticalmethods to retrieve knowledge from data, recommendingactions and driving a more precise decision making in real time.

Companies that use extensively Advanced Analytics:

BIG DATA WORLD SCENARIO

and many others

Of american executives think thatthey did not have sufficient data todrive the last decision they made…

55%

Harvard Business Review, April 2014

AIRCRAFT RELIABILITY DATA ANALYSIS

21 August 2014 18

What was the problem?50.000 reports are sent monthly by the executive aircraft clients to the fleet reliability team thatgenerates reports about the fleet actual health.

How it was used to be done?With Excel macros, all these data needed to beclassified manually according to event categories.

How it is done?Using the CRISP-DM methodology and theRapidMiner tool, this text classification task wasautomated and now it triggers frequently.

PROBLEM OVERVIEW

>>> HUMAN RESOURCES SAVING <<<


21 August 2014 19

CRISP-DM

CRISP-DM METHODOLOGY

Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining

Objective:

Standardization of the data mining process development.

Founding Consortium Members: DaimlerChrysler, SPSS and NCR


Business Understanding

Data Understanding

Data Preparation

Modeling

Evaluation

Operation

21 August 2014 20

CRISP-DM

CRISP-DM METHODOLOGYAIRCRAFT RELIABILITY DATA ANALYSIS

RAPIDMINER PROCESSES

21 August 2014 21

- Scoring and modeling processes triggered automatically;

- Management of the processes and users.

ScoringModelingPreparation

INPUT OUTPUT


RAPIDMINER PROCESSES – DATA PREPARATION

21 August 2014 22

Text Preparation

New Data Preparation

Historical Data Preparation

INPUT DATA

PREPARED DATA

- Data Preparation: Stratify historical data, Extract only the relevant attributes & Remove historical missing values;

- Text Preparation: Tokenization, Filter Stopwords, N-Grams.


RAPIDMINER PROCESSES – MODELING

21 August 2014 23

Model Construction

ModelEvaluation

ModelOptimization

HISTORICAL DATA

MODEL

- Uses Statistical Techniques: k-NN, SVM and Naïve Bayes;- Model Validation: X-Validation;- Triggers every month.


RAPIDMINER PROCESSES – SCORING

21 August 2014 24

Data Recording

Data Joining

ModelApplication

NEW DATA

SCORED DATA

- Uses Joining and Recording Operators;- Triggers every day.


21 August 2014 25

THANK YOU!

AIRCRAFT RELIABILITY DATA ANALYSISAIRCRAFT RELIABILITY DATA ANALYSIS

RM World 2014: Massive data analysis on an aircraft fleet reliability process

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