RITE Report · and material (if the transaction involves a material product). Economists generally...

24
RITE Report Chris Angle, Editor 19 Topledge Road (P.O. Box 708) Redding, CT 06896 Tel. 203/253-2008 Fax. 203/286-2356 Email: [email protected] http://www.stock-market-direction.net/ Date: August 31th, 2010 RITE Report Summary: 1) Corporate Snippets remain strong at 68% positive, 32% negative. 2) Negative General Business and Economics Snippets have, since May, increased to parity with the Positive/Negative news ratio at 50/50 percent. This will drag on the upward potential of the stock market. 3) M & A Snippet activity remains strong at 49. 4) The RITE Investment Strategy Index increased slightly from 52.8% to 55.7% which is way off from its high in February of 73%. The Strategy Index prognosticates a sideways market with a slight bias to the upside. 5) Inflation is here: Gold will continue its long term rise. (See below indicators.) Side Theoretical Comment on the Concern of Economic Growth that is Dragging on the Stock Market There is a concern within the circle of prominent economic pundits that there is uncertainty in the future of U.S. economy due to the recent massive legislation that has passed which is, of course, well founded. The reason for this concern to actually affect the economy and the stock market is due to the nature of a recession relative to the four or five ingredients of the economic transaction. Within every economic transaction there are risk, time, effort, knowledge/information (for a service),

Transcript of RITE Report · and material (if the transaction involves a material product). Economists generally...

Page 1: RITE Report · and material (if the transaction involves a material product). Economists generally define a recession as a period (e.g. six months) of negative GDP growth.

RITE ReportChris Angle, Editor19 Topledge Road (P.O. Box 708)Redding, CT 06896Tel. 203/253-2008Fax. 203/286-2356Email: [email protected]://www.stock-market-direction.net/ Date: August 31th, 2010

RITE Report Summary: 1) Corporate Snippets remain strong at 68% positive, 32% negative. 2) Negative General Business and Economics Snippets have, since May, increased to parity with the Positive/Negative news ratio at 50/50 percent. This will drag on the upward potential of the stock market. 3) M & A Snippet activity remains strong at 49. 4) The RITE Investment Strategy Index increased slightly from 52.8% to 55.7% which is way off from its high in February of 73%. The Strategy Index prognosticates a sideways market with a slight bias to the upside. 5) Inflation is here: Gold will continue its long term rise. (See below indicators.) Side Theoretical Comment on the Concern of Economic Growth that is Dragging on the Stock Market There is a concern within the circle of prominent economic pundits that there is uncertainty in the future of U.S. economy due to the recent massive legislation that has passed which is, of course, well founded. The reason for this concern to actually affect the economy and the stock market is due to the nature of a recession relative to the four or five ingredients of the economic transaction. Within every economic transaction there are risk, time, effort, knowledge/information (for a service),

Page 2: RITE Report · and material (if the transaction involves a material product). Economists generally define a recession as a period (e.g. six months) of negative GDP growth.

and material (if the transaction involves a material product). Economists generally define a recession as a period (e.g. six months) of negative GDP growth. However, the cause of a recession materializes when investors realize that there is a potential that their assets, in the present or in the future, may not be worth as much as previously thought; and as a result, they change their behavior. Once they realize that they have, or potentially will have, less value inherent in their assets, their transactions, in which they involve themselves, become smaller. As a result, the amounts of money with which they perform their transactions decreases. In the present market situation, there exists uncertainty (which is a lack of knowledge which is a primary ingredient in the economic transaction) in what is yet to be understood in the massive legislation. This lack of knowledge causes the investor to conclude that there may be the potential that upon the manifestation of the content, there very well could be a cause for his assets to be suddenly less in value. As an example, the decrease in value could be due to greater cost to adhere to the legislation or a tax that would confiscate part of his profitability. Thus, there arises a deterrent the improvement of the economy and to the rise of the stock market.

CONTENTS PART 1 - STOCKS 1) Business News Compilation Index2) Political & Macro Economic Events Indices3) Indicators for Technical Analysis4) Overall Investment Strategy Index5) Summary PART 2 - HEDGING 1) Hedging and Inflation Snippets2) Hedging Summary PART 1 - STOCKS 1) Business News Compilation - From The Wall Street Journal Part A - Negative Corporate Snippets 08/02- Administaff Profit Drops 5%- NRG Energy Profit Falls 51%- Charles River Net Falls 58%

Page 3: RITE Report · and material (if the transaction involves a material product). Economists generally define a recession as a period (e.g. six months) of negative GDP growth.

- OCBC Profit Misses Forecasts- Metro's Profit Misses Views- TNT's Net Profit Plummets- Nomura Profit Falls 80%- Merck's Profit Falls 52%- NEC Net Loss Widens08/03- BMW Results Surge On Luxury Demand- MGM Resorts Posts Loss- Utilities' Results Sputter- Och-Ziff's Loss Widened- Boyd Gaming Profit Slides08/04- AOL Swings to Loss- Postbank Drops Key Targets- AXA First-Half Net Profit Slides- Allied Irish's Net Loss Widens on Bad Debts- P&G Promotions Pinch Profit- LG Electronics Braces for a Slowdown08/05- Unilever Warns on Outlook- Cigna's Profit Drops 32%- Deutsche Telekom's Net Profit Slides- Unilever Warns on Outlook- Zurich Financial's Net Profit Halves- CBOE Profit Falls 11%- Transocean's Profit Falls 12%08/06- AIG Posts $2.7 Billion Loss- Allianz's Net Profit Falls 46%- Zurich Financial's Net Profit Halves- Omnicare Profit Falls 60%08/09- Chrysler Posts Loss- Freddie Mac Seeks More Aid- King Pharma's Profit Falls 53%- WellCare Posts Loss as It Settles Suits08/10- TUI Warns on Full-Year Results- Higher Claims Hit Hannover Re

Page 4: RITE Report · and material (if the transaction involves a material product). Economists generally define a recession as a period (e.g. six months) of negative GDP growth.

- Liberty Media Stumbles- GLG Revenue Drops on Poor Fund Performance- Lions Gate Swings to a Loss- Dish Network Sees Drop in Subscribers08/11- E.ON's Profit Slips- Thomas Cook Sees Weak Demand- HKEx Net Profit Drops 16%08/12- Cisco Sounds Cautious Note- San Miguel Net Drops- Egypt's Orascom Swings to a Loss- Competition Hits Telstra Profit- SingTel Profit Slips- Qantas Profit Falls08/13- Cowen's Quarterly Loss Widens- Tough U.S. Market Hits Delhaize- Korean Air Swings to Loss- Qantas Profit Falls- Wendy's/Arby's Net Falls 28%- Ranbaxy Profit Slumps 53%08/16- MAS Swings to Loss- Kirin Net Profit Falls 52%- Harmony Gold Swings to a Loss08/18- BJ's Wholesale Lowers View- Vestas Knocks Wind Out of Forecast- CSL Plans Buyback After Net Slips08/19- Druckenmiller to Close Shop- Holcim's Net Profit Falls 12%08/23- Sanderson Farms Net Falls- BYD Says Growth Will Slow Further08/25- Medtronic Sales Hurt by Softer Market- Barnes & Noble Swings to Loss08/26

Page 5: RITE Report · and material (if the transaction involves a material product). Economists generally define a recession as a period (e.g. six months) of negative GDP growth.

- U.S. Hangover Hurts Diageo- American Eagle's Net Slumps; Store Closings Planned08/31- Anglo Irish Posts Massive Loss- Centro Outlook Remains Dim- Lukoil's Net Slips on Higher Costs- EFG Eurobank Net Slumps 61% Negative Corporate Snippets Total = 73 Part B - Positive Corporate Snippets 08/02- HSBC's First-Half Net Profit Doubles- Futures Rally on Strong Bank Results- Humana's Net Jumps 21%- HealthSouth Swings to Profit- Loews, CNA Profit Rises- Oshkosh Swings to Profit- PPR's Net Profit Doubles- ICICI Bank Posts 17% Profit Growth- EADS Raises Full-Year Forecast- Chevron Profit Soars- Honda, Mazda Improve Bottom Lines- Renault Posts First-Half Profit- Audi's Profit Doubles as Sales Climb08/03- Pfizer's Profit Climbs- ADM Profit Soars- Dow Chemical Swings to Profit- MasterCard Profit Jumps 31%- MillerCoors Profit Rises 28%- Tenet Swings to Profit- D.R. Horton Swings to Profit- Baker Hughes Net Rises- Marsh & McLennan Swings to Profit- Xstrata's Net Profit More Than Triples- Deutsche Post Raises Outlook- Taylor Wimpey Posts Profit- NYSE Euronext Swings to a Profit

Page 6: RITE Report · and material (if the transaction involves a material product). Economists generally define a recession as a period (e.g. six months) of negative GDP growth.

- Botox Sales Plump Up Allergan's Net08/04- Toyota Swings to Profit- Time Warner Profit Rises 7.3%- SocGen's Net Profit Triples- IntercontinentalExchange Net Rises 41%- Munich Re's Net Beats Forecasts- Lower Provisions Lift Ally Financial- CBS Earnings Rise Sharply- Electronic Arts Turns In a Profit- Dollar Thrifty Profit More Than Triples- Coach Profit Rises 34%- UMC Profit Surges08/05- Viacom Profit Rises 52%- Revenue Rises for Cable Companies- MF Global Returns to Profit- Back to the Future for Big-Spending Rio- Aviva, RSA Give Upbeat Forecasts- Barclays's Profit Rises on Lower Charges- Hutchison Profit up 12%, 3G Losses Narrow- Swiss Re Swings to a Net Profit- Brazil Boosts Portugal Telecom- Lloyds, HSBC, Standard Chartered Enjoy Profits- Avis Budget Group Swings to Profit on Cost-Cutting- DirecTV Profits Up- CenturyLink, Qwest Post 2Q Profit Despite Weak DSL08/06- Magna Swings to Profit- RBS Creeps Back Into Black- Washington Post's Profit Rises- Old Mutual Swings to a Profit- Rio Tinto Profit More Than Triples08/09- McDonald's Sales Jump- Liberty Media Cites Gains- Tyson's Net Jumps 89%- China Vanke's Net Profit Rises 11%- Washington Post Warns About Kaplan: reported a large jump in second-quarter profit reflecting fewer charges and growth in its education division.

Page 7: RITE Report · and material (if the transaction involves a material product). Economists generally define a recession as a period (e.g. six months) of negative GDP growth.

08/10- JA Solar Posts Profit- Fossil Posts Record Results- CC Media Trims Loss- MBIA Profit Climbs 44%08/11- Macy's Lifts Outlook- ING's Net Profit Soars- Nestlé First-Half Profit Rises 7.5%- Adecco Swings Into the Black- First Data Loss Narrows- Disney Profit Soars on Sports, Films- InterContinental Sees a Rebound- Scotts Miracle-Gro Net Rises- Tencent Posts 61% Profit Rise08/12- General Motors Posts $1.3 Billion Profit- U.K.'s Prudential Posts Profit- World Cup Boosts AB Inbev- MTR Reports 48% Profit Rise- Bank of East Asia's Net Rises 78%- Macy's Tailored Merchandise Pays Off08/13- J.C. Penney Reports Profit- Asustek Swings to Profit- Hypo RE Posts Narrower Loss- Estee Lauder, Elizabeth Arden Swing to Profit- Tata Steel Swings to Profit- PCCW Profit Rises 17%08/16- Lowe's Net Rises 9.6%- H&M Sales Beat Expectations- Michael Page Posts Bumper Earnings- Lend Lease Swings to Profit- Leighton Posts 39% Profit Rise08/18- Woodside Profit Rises 40%- DP World's First-Half Net Profit Rises- Westfield Returns to Profit- Citic Pacific Net Doubles on Steel Sales, Divestments

Page 8: RITE Report · and material (if the transaction involves a material product). Economists generally define a recession as a period (e.g. six months) of negative GDP growth.

- Urban Outfitters Posts 46% Jump in 2Q Profit08/19- Williams-Sonoma Net Soars- Sears Loss Narrows- Staples Profit Rises 40%- Cnooc Profit Doubles- Lenovo Swings to Profit- Dollar Tree Profit Jumps 37%- Yingli Green Posts Profit- China Mobile Profit Climbs- Maersk Returns to a Profit- Deere Reaps Robust Profit- Target Profit Climbs 14%- Chinese Banks Post Profit Jumps- Swiss Life's First-Half Profit Soars- Applied Materials Posts Profit- Sam Zell Seeks Bigger Slice of Manhattan- Applied Materials Posts Profit08/20- Smucker's Earnings Rise 5%- H-P, Dell Post Profit Increases- AnnTaylor Swings to Profit- Hormel's Profit Rises 11%- Toro's Profit Rises 69%- GameStop's Profit, Sales Edge Up08/21- BYD's Profit Doubles- CCB's Profit Rises 27%- Higher Oil Prices Boost Sinopec's First-Half Profit08/23- Chalco Swings to Net Profit- Westpac Cash Profit Rises- BYD Says Growth Will Slow Further: BYD's first-half net profit more than doubled from a year earlier, as the Chinese battery and car maker benefited from Beijing's measures to boost car sales.- CCB's Profit Rises 27%: China Construction Bank reported first-half net profit rose to $10.42 billion,08/24- Ping An Insurance Profit Up 28%- U.S. Turnaround Bolsters WPP Results

Page 9: RITE Report · and material (if the transaction involves a material product). Economists generally define a recession as a period (e.g. six months) of negative GDP growth.

- Aer Lingus's First-Half Loss Narrows- Sinopec's First-Half Profit Climbs- Laggards Amid Ad Rebound08/25- Toll Brothers Swings to Profit- Cost Cuts Lift Heineken Profit- BHP Billiton Profit More Than Doubles- Chinese Car Makers Post Strong Results- Air China Net Soars 60%- China Life Posts 7.4% Net Rise- Hongkong & Shanghai Hotels Posts 31% Profit Rise- Advertising's Revival Boosts WPP- Bank of Montreal Earnings Rise 20%- China Telecom's Net Inches Up08/26- Crédit Agricole's Net Profit Soars- Ahold's Net Profit Rises 3.1%- Genting Net Surges on New Casino- Virgin Blue Swings to Profit- Fortescue Posts 14% Profit Rise- Cost Cuts Boost L'Oréal's Results08/27- Dana Moves To Rebuff KNOC, Reports Profit- Tiffany Posts Profit Gain, Lifts Forecast- AgBank 6-Month Net Up 40%- Intesa Sanpaolo's Net Profit Soars- Iberia Swings Into the Black- Diageo Posts Tepid Results08/30- Retail, Terminals Boost Wharf's Profit08/31- Bertelsmann Raises Forecast- Carrefour Swings to First-Half Profit- Taiwan PC Makers Post Profit Rises- Rusal Swings to First-Half Profit- Hermes Profit Jumps 55%- Terminals Help Boost Wharf- Macau Casinos' Profits Improve Total of Positive Corporate News Snippets = 160

Page 10: RITE Report · and material (if the transaction involves a material product). Economists generally define a recession as a period (e.g. six months) of negative GDP growth.

Index of Snippets: Positive Trend is in Place

Month of Snippets % Positive Snippets % of Negative Snippets

March 09 5% or less Approx. 95% or more

April 09 35% 65%

May 09 55% 45%

June 09 56% 44%

July 09 44% 56%

August 09 41% 59%

September 09 51% 49%

October 09 57% 43%

November 09 58% 42%

December 09 59% 41%

January 2010 72% 28%

February 2010 69% 31%

March 2010 65% 35%

April 2010 73% 27%

May 2010 78% 22%

June 2010 74% 26%

July 2010 73% 27%

August 2010 69% 31%

2) Political Risk & Macro Economic Events/News A) Negative WSJ Economic and General Business Data Snippets

Page 11: RITE Report · and material (if the transaction involves a material product). Economists generally define a recession as a period (e.g. six months) of negative GDP growth.

08/02- China Industrial Growth Slows- Earnings Show Europe's Sluggishness- Asian Economies Slowing- Earnings Show Europe's Sluggishness- Recovery Loses Momentum- IMF: U.S. Financial System Still at Risk- U.K. Consumer Confidence Slumps08/03- Spending, Income Were Flat in June- Factory Growth Slows Around World08/04- Private Sector Adds 42,000 Jobs: Private payroll gains increased by only 42,000 in July, as large business added no new workers, according to an ADP report.- Home Data Slide Again as Tax Credit Expires- U.K. Recovery Lags Euro Zone08/05- Jobless Claims Rise- Poll: China's Growth Slowing- Geithner Pushes Tax Boost for Wealthy- China's Growth Slowing to About 8%, WSJ Poll Finds- Job Growth Stayed Weak in July- Personal Bankruptcies Rise, Reversing Trend- Home Data Slide Again- Factory Growth Slows Around World08/06- U.S. Employers Shed Jobs: Unemployment Rate Held Steady at 9.5% in July - The U.S. economy shed more jobs than expected in July while the unemployment rate held steady at 9.5%, a further sign the economic recovery may be losing momentum.- German Industrial Output Falls- Retailers Suffer Lazy Days of Summer: Retail sales at U.S. chain stores rose a disappointing 2.9% in July, falling short of forecasts, as markdowns failed to inspire cautious consumers.- U.K. Industrial Output Drops08/09- Japan Hit By Global Slowdown- U.S. Job Market Loses Steam08/10

Page 12: RITE Report · and material (if the transaction involves a material product). Economists generally define a recession as a period (e.g. six months) of negative GDP growth.

- Productivity Fell in Second Quarter- Incomes Fall in Most Metro Areas- Freddie Mac Seeks More Aid- U.K. House Prices Fall08/11- Fed Sees Recovery Slowing- Employers Moving Slowly to Fill Jobs- China's Economic Growth Slows0812- Jobless Claims Remain Stubbornly High- ECB Warns on Economic Recovery- Greek Recession Deepens- Cost of Insuring European Debt Rises08/13- Hungary's Economy Stagnates08/14- Rosenberg: Odds of Double Dip Higher Than 50/50- Bargain-Hungry Buyers Keep Retail Sales Weak08/17- German Data Point to Slowdown08/19- Malaysia's Growth Cools08/20- Jobless Claims Jump in New Sign Recovery Is Sputtering- France Cuts 2011 Growth Forecast08/21- France Dims Outlook for 2011- Job Crisis Grows as Greece Falters08/23- Wall Street Faces Job Cuts- S&P Raises Concerns Over Turkey- Europe's Recovery Loses Steam: The euro zone's private sector expanded at a slower pace in August, weighed down by both the manufacturing and services sectors, but remained well above the key break-even level of 50.08/25- Durable-Goods Orders Rise Less Than Expected- Plunge in Home Sales Stokes Fears- Japan Export Growth Slows Down08/26- Data Underscore Slowdown

Page 13: RITE Report · and material (if the transaction involves a material product). Economists generally define a recession as a period (e.g. six months) of negative GDP growth.

08/27- U.K. Economy to Slow- Shiller Sees Potential 'Double Dip'- U.S. GDP Growth Revised Downward08/30- Intel Warns on PC Demand08/31- U.K. Consumer Lending Growth Slows- Euro-Zone Unemployment Holds Total of Negative General Business and Economic News Snippets = 59 B) Positive Economic and General Business News Snippets 08/02- Survey Shows Rising Optimism for Rebound- Higher Profits Fueling Buybacks- Thailand Expects Strong GDP- Survey Shows Rising Optimism for Rebound- Rising Wages Rattle China's Small Businesses- South Korea's Exports Rose in July- Germany Regains Jobs Lost in Recession- Euro-Zone Sentiment Improves- Global Chip Sales Rise08/03- Spanish Job Market Improves08/04- Lower Loan Losses Lift Lloyds- PE Firms Seek China Stocks- Early Result Shows Strength for Acer- Car Sales Rose 5.1% in July08/05- July Retail Sales Inch Up- Greece Meets Austerity Targets- Ad Market Largely Stronger- Indonesia GDP Grows 2.8%08/09- German Exports Rise Again- China Trade Surplus Surges- Small-Business Sentiment Deteriorates Again

Page 14: RITE Report · and material (if the transaction involves a material product). Economists generally define a recession as a period (e.g. six months) of negative GDP growth.

- InterContinental: Room Rates Are Rising08/10- U.S. Trade Deficit Widens08/12- Buyers' Credit Lifts Home Prices08/13- Germany Drives Euro-Zone Growth- Cars, Gas Drive Up Retail Sales08/16- China Output Tops Japan08/19- Bundesbank Lifts Forecast- Auto Sector Fuels Factory Output- German Retail Sales on the Rise- Fund Firms' Stocks Rebound From Lows: Slow Recovery on Good Financial Data08/20- Germany to Raise 2010 Growth Forecast- Bundesbank Lifts Forecast- Deals Stage Comeback08/21- New York City Sees Job Growth- Germany to Raise '10 Forecast08/23- Cities Privatize Assets Amid Cuts- Thai Growth Beats Views- Taiwan's Economy Expands- Euro-Zone Factory Orders Rise08/25- Swedish Confidence Soars08/26- Fewer Households Behind on Mortgages- U.K. Retail Sales Hit Three-Year High- German Sentiment to Rise08/28- Bankers Say Recovery Likely to Stay on Track08/30- Chip Sales Rise in July08/31- India Economy Expands 8.8%

Page 15: RITE Report · and material (if the transaction involves a material product). Economists generally define a recession as a period (e.g. six months) of negative GDP growth.

- Consumer Spending Grows Modestly- Euro-Zone Confidence Improves- State Tax Revenue Gains Total of Positive General Business and Economic News Snippets: 58 C) Merger/Acquisitions/Public Offerings Snippets From the Wall Street Journal 08/02- Volvo's Sale to Geely Finalized- Gordmans Stores Tests IPO Market- Western Gas to Buy Anadarko Assets- Disney to Sell Miramax- AWB to Merge With GrainCorp- Qualcomm Sets India Venture08/03- BP Sells Colombian Business- MetLife Share Sale to Total About $3 Billion- Lure of Gold Prompts Merger- HgCapital Set to Buy TeamSystem08/05- Acer Seeks $500 Million Via Convertible Bonds08/06- Everbright to Raise up to $3.21 Billion08/09- Skype Files for IPO- Nabors to Buy Superior Well for $735 Million- ITT to Sell Engineering Unit08/10- Fortress to Buy 80% Of AIG Lending Unit08/11- Lavazza Brews Deal With Green Mountain- Coastal Resort Goes for Cheap Price- Spain's ACS Sells Abertis Stake08/12- AIG Sells Piece of Its Empire08/13- Li & Fung to Buy Logistics Firm- Dynegy Agrees to Buyout- IBM to Buy Unica for $480 Million

Page 16: RITE Report · and material (if the transaction involves a material product). Economists generally define a recession as a period (e.g. six months) of negative GDP growth.

08/16- Dell to Acquire 3PAR- AgBank Sets Global IPO Record- Vedanta to Buy Stake in Cairn India08/18- Windstream to Buy Q-Comm- Groupon Buys Rivals in Japan and Russia08/19- GM Files for Long-Awaited IPO- Intel to Buy McAfee- Nidec to Buy Emerson Unit08/20- Apple to Close Quattro Wireless- MasterCard to Buy DataCash- Mitchells & Butlers to Sell 333 U.K. Pubs08/24- PwC to Buy Diamond Management- AIG Commits on Nan Shan Sale08/25- Posco to Sign Daewoo Deal08/27- Google to Acquire Start-Up Angstro- Mongolian Mining Plans $1 Billion IPO- Bain Capital Expected to Buy Air Medical Group08/30- Intel Seals Infineon Deal- H-P Adds $10 Billion to Buyback- 3M to Acquire Cogent08/31- Exelon to Acquire Deere Unit- Simon Closes Purchase of Prime Outlets- George Weston to Buy U.S. Bakery Business- Schwab to Buy Windward in ETF Push- Google Buys SocialDeck Merger/Acquisition/Public Offerings Snippet Total: 49

Table of Positive v. Negative General Economic & Business News With

Page 17: RITE Report · and material (if the transaction involves a material product). Economists generally define a recession as a period (e.g. six months) of negative GDP growth.

Investment Banking Snippet CountMonth % Negative

Snippets% Positive Snippets M & A,

Public Offering Snippets

August 09 40% 60% 12

September 09 48% 52% 30

October 09 34% 66% 24

November 09 33% 67% 31

December 09 38% 62% 35

January 2010 48% 52% 25

February 2010 43% 57% 28

March 2010 34% 66% 40

April 2010 33% 67% 47

May 2010 53% 47% 38

June 2010 51% 49% 52

July 2010 50% 50% 42

August 2010 50% 50% 49

3) Technical Analysis SummaryINDICATOR - MONTH OF RITE REPORT

July 30, 2010(June data unless otherwise noted.)

August 31, 2010(July data unless otherwise noted.)

TREND and/or COMMENT

REAL GDP Q2: 2.4% Q2: 1.6%(Revised)

Trend Declining

UNEMPLOY-MENT RATE

9.5% 9.5% No Movement

Page 18: RITE Report · and material (if the transaction involves a material product). Economists generally define a recession as a period (e.g. six months) of negative GDP growth.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

+ 0.1% 1.0% Positive

PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX

56.2% 55.5% Economy Expanding

RETAIL SALES $360.2 billion $362.7 billion Even

CONSUMER SPENDING

May: + 0.2% June 0.0% No Movement

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference BoardTM)

Downward Movement

DownwardMovement

Negative

HOUSING STARTS

549,000 546,000 No Movement

EXISTING HOME SALES

5.37 million 3.83 million Negative Movement

TRADE DEFICIT May: $42.3 billion $49.9 billion Increase Movement

CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORSTM

Slight Decrease Slight Increase Positive

CONFERENCE BOARD COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDEXTM

Unchanged Increase Upward

Page 19: RITE Report · and material (if the transaction involves a material product). Economists generally define a recession as a period (e.g. six months) of negative GDP growth.

SUMMARY 5 Positive4 Negative3 Neutral

4) RITE Investment Strategy Index Scale:0 = Neutral;+10 = High Opportunity Environment; -10 = Extreme Negative Risk Miasma EFFORT, RISK, FREEDOM, KNOWLEDGE/INFO

August 31REPORT

COMMENTS

1) Domestic Political Risk

- 8 Deleterious Lawmaking Gone Rampant Fraught With Unintended Consequences

2) Tax Risk - 5 Taxes Coming plus Bush Tax Cuts Will Expire

3) Individual Incentive - Freedom

- 3 Assault on Freedom Continuing

4) Production of Knowledge

+ 5 Positive corporate snippets persist; ergo, the potential for R&D investment.

5) Technical Analysis of the U.S. Stock Markets

- 0 - Sideways market.

6) Corporate Snippets + 10 Positive Snippets Remain

Page 20: RITE Report · and material (if the transaction involves a material product). Economists generally define a recession as a period (e.g. six months) of negative GDP growth.

High

7) General Business & Economic Snippets

0 50% Neg. 50% Pos.

8) Economic Indicators + 1 Slight Improvement on Indicators from last month

9) Merger/Acquisition Activity

+ 8 Strong at 49

Sum of Total 8 Sudden Large Decrease from 12

Average of Total 1.14 Slight Increase

Percentage of Equity Commitment

55.7% Slight increase from last month’s 52.8%

History of Strategy Index

Month & Year

Percentage Index

DJIA Gold Oil USD Index

October 2009

72.2%

November 71.6%

December 72.8%

January 2010

71.1%

February 73.35%

Page 21: RITE Report · and material (if the transaction involves a material product). Economists generally define a recession as a period (e.g. six months) of negative GDP growth.

March 66%

April 68%

May 70%

June 1st 56.1% 10,024.02

June 30th 56.6% 9,774.02

July 30th 52.8% 10,465.94 1,183.5 78.99 81.655

Aug 31st 55.7% 10,014.72 1,248.1 72.29 83.165 5) Summary EQUITY MARKET CONCLUSION: The corporate profit news is good but the General Business and Political News has not improved, and the RITE Strategy Index has levelled off and remains a little above the 50% mark; thus, we can expect this market to go in a general sideways movement. As a result, the index suggests a slight increase of your Equity Position to 56%. PART 2: HEDGING 1) HEDGING/INFLATION SNIPPETS FROM THE WSJ Deflation08/12Investors Reload the Guns On Euro08/14Dollar Seems Headed Higher Against Euro: A shift in worries about economic growth is injecting new life into the dollar, with the U.S. no longer seeming such a laggard compared with Asia and the euro zone. Inflation08/03Fed Mulls Symbolic Shift: Officials to Consider Putting More Money Into Bond Market as Recovery Wavers

Page 22: RITE Report · and material (if the transaction involves a material product). Economists generally define a recession as a period (e.g. six months) of negative GDP growth.

Deflation Snippets = 2Inflation Snippets = 1Total Snippets = 3 INFLATION TABLERITE ReportMONTH

CONSUMER PRICESBureau of

Labor Statistics

PRODUCER PRICESBureau of

Labor Statistics

INFLATION DATA.COM

INFLATIONSNIPPETS %

DEFLATIONSNIPPETS %

COMMENT

Dec 2009 + 1.8% + 2.4% + 1.84%

Jan 2010 + 2.7% + 4.4% + 2.72% 44% 56%

Feb + 2.6 Jan + 4.6% Jan

+ 2.63 44% 56%

March + 2.1% + 4.4% + 2.14% 40% 60%

April + 2.3% + 6.0% + 2.31% 29% 71%

May + 2.2% + 5.5% + 2.24% 50% 50%

June + 2.0% + 5.3% + 2.02% 25% 75%

July + 1.1% + 2.8% + 1.05% 25% 75%

August + 1.2% + 4.2% + 1.24% 33% 67%

2) HEDGING SUMMARY a) Stock Market Hedging Trading Strategy Suggestions: 1) Consider having your trader putting on a slight hedge to the down side in case the near term news turns even worse. 2) Another strategy: Write Covered Calls. b) Oil: Four months ago the RITE Report predicted it will continue its long term ascent. For short term considerations, write some covered calls for supplemental income to your petroleum equity holdings as the oil sector has stalled in its upward trend.

Page 23: RITE Report · and material (if the transaction involves a material product). Economists generally define a recession as a period (e.g. six months) of negative GDP growth.

c) Gold: The Inflation Table continues to indicate that inflation is here. Plus, the inflated Fed balance sheet still looms and may even increase. Continue to go long. IT IS STILL A GOOD TIME TO BUY THIS COMMODITY. d) The U.S. Dollar: The news of the European economy is not strong. Thus, the U.S. Dollar Index remained level; but due to Fed policy and inflation data above, we expect the U.S. Dollar Index to begin to further decline. _________________

(The RITE Report’s name was derived from the acronym of the four variables inherent in all economic transactions; Risk, Information/Knowledge, Time, and Effort. Of course, this would be for a service, and if the product were a material good, there would be an additional factor of Material - or Land as the economist would say. See The Philosophical Equations of Economics at www.philosophypublishing.com for further info on this subject.)For Your Reference: CUSTOM RESEARCH: Please note that custom economic and/or macro investment research is available on request. SELF-ADVERTISEMENT BLURB: Chris Angle is the author of: The Nature of Aesthetics - 978-0-9661126-4-1Defining Ethics Good & Evil - 978-0-9661126-5-8Truth and the Nature of Decisions - 978-0-9661126-6-5The Philosophical Equations of Economics - 978-0-9661126-3-4 These books may be viewed at: www.philosophypublishing.com DISCLAIMERS/CAVEATS: 1) Past performance is not indicative of future results. 2) Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Carefully consider the suitability based upon your experience, objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. Alternative

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investment products, including hedge funds and managed futures, involve a high degree of risk. Alternative investment performance can be volatile and are not suitable for all investors. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. 3) This communication does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, any products named herein, commodities interests, futures contracts, or securities, and is intended for informational purposes only. Any offer for any investment product will be made solely by the appropriate disclosure document or private placement memorandum. 4) The RITE Report has been prepared either from publicly available information or reflects the opinions of the author. Information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but may not have been independently verified. The RITE Report does not guaranty, represent or warrant, or accept any responsibility or liability as to, the accuracy, completeness or appropriateness of the information contained herein. At no time will the RITE Report make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Information contained herein may not be current due to, among other things, changes in the financial markets or economic environment. Opinions reflected in the materials are subject to change without notice. Forecasts represent estimates. Information provided by the RITE Report is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any forecasting effort. Investing carries risk of losses. Information provided by the RITE Report does not constitute, and should not be used as a substitute for tax, legal, or investment advice. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks before making any trading and investing decisions.