Risk calculation project - HELCOM

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Risk calculation project

Jon-Arve RøysetHelsinki, 13.06.2017


Existing and future models

Spes. analysis

Mitigation measures

VTS

Probability system

AIS data

Ship register

Geo boundaries

Reports

Data export

Web and BI-presentation

HavbaseSupporting

tables

Environ-mental

risk

Other

Safe Seanet, PEC Agr.

Meteorology

Pilot - DNV GL Veracity

- Data mangement, data quality, harmonization, ...

Data marts

Data marts

Data marts

Data marts

Accidents DSS,Dama,SD

• Establish a long-term data collection for the analysis of probability of ship accidents in Norwegian waters

• Trend analysis• Uniform data

Risk module


Results and deliveries

With the help of the system, one can easily provide overviews and reports in relation to:• Ship activity and trends in

Norwegian sea areas• Change in ship activity• Probability of accidents and oil

spill• Changes in likelihood of

accidents and oil spill• Overview of accident types• Use of pilot related to accidents• Everything presented through a

common web interface• Develop method report – open

risk

Risk level trendsStakeholders: NCA, other Norwegian authorities, public?Purpose: To monitor trends in risk level in Norwegian waters and report as appropriate.Goal: To be able to identify risk level trends as the basis for further analyzes and to take expedient actions if needed.[LIJ1]


KV.B, KV.S, NA, Public?

To clearly highlight rate of change in the risk level based on set criteria

To be able to easily generate risk maps with main changes - short/long term planning

2008 2040

Vessel type Risk type

Green – Increased riskRed – Decreased risk

2040

Vessel type Risk type Region

2040

2008 2040

1. < 1000 GT

2. 1000 -4999 GT

3. 5000 -9999 GT

4. 10000 -24999 GT

5. 25000 -49999 GT

6. 50000 -99999 GT

7. >= 100000 GT

01 Oljetankere 1 % 2 % 0 % 1 % 2 % 7 % 0 %02 Kjemikalie-/produkttankere 1 % -9 % 3 % 7 % 1 % 0 % 0 %03 Gasstankere 0 % 3 % 1 % 1 % 1 % 0 % 1 %04 Bulkskip 1 % -3 % -2 % -7 % 1 % 2 % 0 %05 Stykkgodsskip 1 % 7 % 6 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 %06 Konteinerskip 0 % 0 % 4 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 %07 Ro Ro last 0 % 2 % 2 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %08 Kjøle-/fryseskip 0 % 8 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %09 Passasjer 2 % 8 % 5 % 6 % 4 % 3 % 1 %10 Offshore supply skip skip 1 % -5 % -7 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %11 Andre offshore service 3 % -1 % 1 % 2 % 0 % 0 % 0 %12 Andre aktiviteter 2 % 1 % 3 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 %13 Fiskefartøy -4 % -4 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %

2009 2015

Date1 Date 2


UC-1,9 KV.B, KV.S, NA, Public?

To identify the high and low risk for spill areas in Norwegian waters

To identify the high and low risk for spill areas in Norwegian waters

2008 2040

Vessel type Fuel/Cargo type



Monitor trends in reported accidents and present results in multiple ways

In order to be able to identify trends and take expedient actions

Number of accidents within each cell

2008 2040

Vessel type Accident type



Monitor trends in reported accidents with oil spill and present results in multiple ways


Number of accidents with oil spill within each cell / Oil spill volume

2008 2040

No./Volume

Vessel type Fuel/Cargo type



Monitor trends in reported accidents with resulting injuryor loss of life


2008 2040

Vessel type injuries/fatalities

2008 2010 2015 2020 20402030

Number of accidents with resulting injury or loss of life for respective cell

injuries/fatalities

2008 2010 2015 2020 20402030

Number of accidents with resulting injury or loss of life for region

injuries/fatalities region

Oljetankere

Kjemikalie-/produkttankere

Gasstankere

Bulkskip

Stykkgodsskip

Konteinerskip

Ro Ro last

Kjøle-/fryseskip

Passasjer

Offshore supply skip

Andre offshore service skip

Andre aktiviteter

Fiskefartøy

2008 2040

Number of accidents with resulting injury or loss of life for region

region

1. < 1000 GT

2. 1000 -4999 GT

3. 5000 -9999 GT

4. 10000 -24999 GT

5. 25000 -49999 GT

6. 50000 -99999 GT

7. >= 100000 GT

01 Oljetankere 1 % 2 % 0 % 1 % 2 % 7 % 0 %

02 Kjemikalie-/produkttankere 1 % -9 % 3 % 7 % 1 % 0 % 0 %03 Gasstankere 0 % 3 % 1 % 1 % 1 % 0 % 1 %04 Bulkskip 1 % -3 % -2 % -7 % 1 % 2 % 0 %05 Stykkgodsskip 1 % 7 % 6 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 %06 Konteinerskip 0 % 0 % 4 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 %07 Ro Ro last 0 % 2 % 2 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %08 Kjøle-/fryseskip 0 % 8 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %09 Passasjer 2 % 8 % 5 % 6 % 4 % 3 % 1 %

10 Offshore supply skip skip 1 % -5 % -7 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %

11 Andre offshore service 3 % -1 % 1 % 2 % 0 % 0 % 0 %12 Andre aktiviteter 2 % 1 % 3 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 %13 Fiskefartøy -4 % -4 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 0 % 0 %



Identify the reason for accidents based on ship movements and immediate actions

In order to be able to identify trends and take expedient actions 2008 2010 2015 2020 20402030

2008 2040

Vessel type Cause of accident

Ship losses and causes

2008 2040

Number of accidents per cause

region

GroundingFireCollisionFounderingIce damage…….…

2008 2040

Loss type



To establish an overview of the use of pilots/Farledsbevis – connect to voyage


2008 2040

Vessel type With Pilot

Without pilotWith pilot

High level risk methodology and focus areas

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Single ship calculations• The risk model shall be location-based, i.e. the calculations are

carried out individually for each position, such that the results can be defined as functions of position

• Based on the recorded position of AIS messages a GIS will be used to draw ship tracks illustrating traffic patterns. Ship tracks are lines drawn between AIS points recorded for each vessel based on the route the vessel has sailed, as shown in the Figure below, and later aggregated within the grid cells for use in the risk calculations. The model aims to operate on a single ship at a time.


What have we done so far…14

DNV GL (COWI)

Approach: Critical situations

Powered grounding model Drift grounding model

COWI

Approach: Drift based on metocean data

Collision model DNV GL

Approach: Critical situations (safety domain/ellipse)

DNV GL

Approach: NavRisk (sailed distance)

Fire/explosion and foundering model

DNV GL

Approach: NavRisk + updates

Consequence model – Oil outflow

DNV GL

Approach: NavRisk + updates

Consequence model –Loss of lives

31 4 5 62

6 6

3 31

3

Work load rating 1 to 6

Innovation – here we want to focus our efforts!

--

Contact model?

These risk model is influenced by the methodology used in DNV GL’s NavRisk tool, DNV GL’s FARGE project, IALA’s Waterway Risk Assessment (IWRAP tool) and Be-Aware methodology. The essentials of these models have been used to develop the new risk model, but with new innovation and calibration.


The overall process of calculating risk• The calculation process will be fully automatic, with no manual input for execution.

Manual input should only be needed for tool development and updates of parameters• Accident frequencies are calculated for the following types of accidents; grounding (drift-

and powered grounding), collision (head-on, overtaking and crossing), fire/explosion and foundering

Figure 6-1 High-level illustration of the risk calculation process

Powered grounding model

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General modelling approach for powered grounding

• Simplified calculation formula: Number of critical situations x probability of grounding, given that ship is in critical situation (course not changed before impact)

• This calculation will primarily be based on the IWRAP method, but the calculation will be done for individual ships, not merged traffic in lanes (which is the case for IWRAP)


Modelling principle

• Requirement:– Automatic calculations, no manual input of legs,

waypoints etc.

• Powered grounding frequency = Sum of N (Number of critical situations) x Pc (Causation probability) – Pc models the vessels and the officer of the watch’s

ability to perform evasive manoeuvres in the event of potential critical situation.

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Number of critical situations19

Vessel do not turn- Watch Officer

asleep

- Technical (rudder/ steering gear)

Vessel deviation from route- Watch Officer

misjudgement (complexity, time etc.)

- Current, waves etc.

- Evasive manoeuvres to avoid other ship

Powered grounding frequency = Sum of N (Number of critical situations) x Pc (Causation probability)

Type 1

Type 2


Number of critical situations- Type 1• Downscaled AIS high resolution

data– 30 s– Due to “noise” in AIS data– Points with low speed to be removed

to exclude harbor turnings• Half year of 2015 data• General cargo carriers• Critical turns

– Turns with Rate of Turn (RoT) > 0.1 o (1/radius of curve)

– 30 min vector at turns– Check if the vector ends to land /

shallow water – Where ships turn to avoid hitting

land

• Process:1. One ship analysed in the first stage2. Scaling up to all vessels in the test

area3. Scaling to Norwegian coast and all

vesselso Challenge with large amount of data

20 Powered grounding frequency = Sum of N (Number of critical situations) x Pc (Causation probability)

r

1r

= 0∞

Drift grounding

11 December 201321


Drift grounding modelLeading indicators and input: • Distance sailed. Engine breakdown, leading to drift grounding, may be closely

related to time at sea or distance sailed.

Calculations; the drift grounding calculations should take into consideration:• Distance to shore. Grounding frequency at sea must reflect the distance

between the ship’s route and the all potential grounding points.• Location and capacity of emergency tug services• Metocean data (wind roses, currents)

Simplified calculation formula: Number of distance sailed (or operation time) x probability of engine malfunction x probability of ship drifts to shore (considering failure to recover ship, failure of tugs etc.)

This calculation will primarily be based on the DNV GL FARGE [1] method and the IWRAP method [2], and the calculation will be done for individual ships.

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General modelling approach for drift grounding.

Should the methodology development for grounding fail due to unforeseen reasons (data extensiveness, complexity of modelling, time constraints etc.), the risk model will use one of these two alternatives (back-up methods):• Alternative 1: Utilise the DNV GL NavRisk methodology for grounding. The above method for

identifying number of critical situations (dangerous courses), in combination with distance to shore, will be used as input to the adjustment factor for the simplified calculation formula: Number of nautical miles sailed x probability of grounding per nautical mile x adjustment factor.

• Alternative 2: Use DNV GL NavRisk methodology for grounding in its current form, with no changes. The script for this method is existing, thus it can be implemented with minimum efforts.

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Collision model

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Collision model• Collision frequency = Frequency of critical situations * causation factor

– a dependent probability of an accident given a critical situation

• Model utilized AIS tracks directly

• Vessels are modelled as ellipses

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Loa

Bx , yForward


Critical situations• A critical situation as two vessels

being within 0.2 nautical miles of each other, and matching one of three criteria– 0.2 nautical miles can be discussed

• 1) Their course difference being equal to – overtaking

• 2) Their course difference being equal – a meeting situation.

• 3) a crossing situation– a. the two ship tracks intersect; or– b. extrapolation of the two ships

current position and heading forward in time leads to an intersection

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1)

2)

3)

Method description summery

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Method description Acute pollution and loss of life

Risk calculation project - HELCOM

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