MARCSMARCS Marine Accident Risk Calculation System.
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Transcript of MARCSMARCS Marine Accident Risk Calculation System.
MARCSMARCSMarine Accident Risk
Calculation System
Accidents Modelled
Ship-ship collisions Powered grounding Drift grounding Fire and explosion while underway Structural failure/foundering
Structure of MARCSAccident
Consequence DataAccident/IncidentFrequency Data
Accident FrequencyFactors
Accident ConsequenceFactors
AccidentFrequencies
AccidentConsequence
Calculator
Results
AccidentFrequencyCalculator
ShippingLane Data
EnvironmentalData
Event TreeAnalysis
Fault TreeAnalysis
OR OR
Tanker
GenCar
Bulk
Ferry
Oil Tanker Lanes - Case 1
< 0.1 Vessels / day0.1 - 0.5 Vessels / day0.5 - 1 Vessels / day1 - 5 Vessels / day5 - 10 Vessels / day> 10 Vessels / day
1,0e-1 - 1,0e-6Accidents per year
1,0e-6 - 1,0e-51,0e-5 - 1,0e-41,0e-4 - 1,0e-31,0e-3 - 1,0e-2>1,0 e-2
CollisionPowered
Grounding Drift GroundingFire and
Explosion Structuralfailure
Ferry
Bulk
Tanker
Gcar
0,0000
2,0000
4,0000
6,0000
8,0000
10,0000
12,0000
Num
ber o
f acc
iden
ts p
er y
ear
RATIO OF PREDICTED ACCIDENT FREQUENCIES TO
HISTORICAL ACCIDENT FREQUENCES
MARCS/Historical Collision StructuralFailure
Fire/Explosion
PoweredGrounding
DriftGrounding
Tanker 0.41 0.28 0.23 0.89 5.41
General Cargo 0.62 0.25 0.15 0.67 5.45
Bulk 0.23 0.10 0.06 0.60 4.57
Ferry 0.22 0.12 0.02 54.89 0.41