Richards.robert
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Critical Chain Project Management: Motivation & Overview Robert Richards, Ph.D. Project Manager Stottler Henke Associates, Inc. Hilbert Robinson President Afinitus Group LLC Used with Permission
Transcript of Richards.robert
Critical Chain Project Management: Motivation & Overview
Robert Richards, Ph.D. Project ManagerStottler Henke Associates, Inc.
Hilbert RobinsonPresidentAfinitus Group LLC
Used with Permission
Are You A Responsible Person?
Scenario:You live in New England and it’s late WinterTime to airport varies from 45 minutes to 3 hours depending…Most times it takes a little over 65 minutesYou are joining the President at 9:00 AM at the airport
Questions:
How early should you leave? __________Why?_____________________________
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Presentation OutlineBackground
• Triple Constraints• Murphy’s Law• Complexity
Problem [What to Change]• Localized Risk Management
- Task Level Insurance Policy- Student Syndrome- Parkinson’s Law- Multi-tasking
Solution [What to Change to]• Governing Principle - Global Risk Management
- Project Level Protection- Systems Perspective- Execution Control
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BackgroundTriple Constraints [Binding Commitments]
1. Time [Minimize]2. Capacity / Resource Budget [Minimize]3. Content / Scope / Quality [Maximize]
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BackgroundMurphy’s Law [Disruption Event]
• Number of unknowns• Range of possibilities• Frequency of repetition
Complexity [Amplification factor]• Degree of integration required• Number of dimensions to be integrated• Speed of execution
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Presentation OutlineBackground
• Governing Principle or Paradigm Shift• Triple Constraints• Complexity• Murphy’s Law
Problem [What to Change]• Localized Risk Management
– Task Level Insurance Policy– Student Syndrome– Parkinson’s Law– Multi-tasking
Solution [What to Change to]• Governing Principle - Global Risk Management
– Project Level Protection– Systems Perspective– Execution Control
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Problem: Localized Risk Management Strategy1. Task level insurance policy
See opening scenario – answers?And if it was a task in a project??** How safe is safe enough?**
2. Student SyndromeThe dog ate my homework
3. Parkinson's LawSelf-fulfilling prophecy [good estimating?]
4. Multi-tasking [absence of priorities]Hero or villain?
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Problem: Localized Risk Management
Multi-tasking causes delays to spread across all projects, adding as much as 20% to all projects
One Resource, Four Task, from Four Different Projects
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Presentation OutlineBackground
• Governing Principle or Paradigm Shift• Triple Constraints• Complexity• Murphy’s Law
Problem [What to Change]• Localized Risk Management
– Task Level Insurance Policy– Student Syndrome– Parkinson’s Law
Solution [What to Change to]• Global Risk Management
– Project Level Protection– Systems Perspective– Execution Control
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SolutionGoverning Principle Behind CCPM is:
Aggregation of risk…
Benefits:• Lower overall protection needed• Higher degree of “coverage” achieved• Leading to lower incidence of “failure”
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Solution: Global Approach to Risk Management1. Planning
1. Project Level vs. Task Level Protection2. Systems Perspective for Multiple Projects
1. Should load for multiple projects be considered?2. Why?3. How?
2. Execution Control1. Promote and encourage team culture2. Controlled work queues3. No multi-tasking work rules4. No batch processing work rules5. Task assignment prioritization6. Management by Exception
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Critical Chain Planning Process
1. Traditional Plan
2. Safety Excluded
3. Resource Leveled
4. Critical Chain Marked
From Task to Project Protection
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144 hours
72 hours
84 hours
Critical Chain Planning Process
1. Traditional Plan
2. Safety Excluded
3. Resource Leveled
4. Critical Chain Marked inYellow
From Task toProject Protection
144 Hours
72 Hours
84 Hours
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Aggregation Principle
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The Concept of Risk Pooling:Can someone explain why this works?
Health Care Example: Larger pool = Lower cost
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Aggregation PrincipleInsurance is designed to work by spreading costs across a large number of people. Premiums are based on the average costs for the people in an insured group. This risk-spreading function helps make insurance reasonably affordable for most people.
http://www.insurance.wa.gov/legislative/factsheets/PoolingRiskReducingCost.asp
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Critical Chain Planning
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Aggregation Principle [where did some of the safety go?]:1. Pooled protection provides more coverage
2. Location is just as important as amount
3. Sizing Rule of Thumb 2/3rds to 1/3rd
Buffer is half of preceding chain
PB = Project Buffer FB = Feeding Buffer
Compared to 144 days traditional
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132 hours
Critical Chain Planning
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Proj_Buf = Project Buffer FB = Feeding Buffer
Schedule shown in Aurora
132 hours compared to 144 hours in traditional schedule
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Critical Chain in Execution
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Schedule Before Execution Starts
“AS OF DATE”
1. T8 experienced a 5 day increase in scope or delay2. Results in a 2.5 day impact to the project buffer3. The rest was absorbed by the Critical Chain gap4. 35-32.5=2.5 7% Complete and 14% Buffer Consumed
132 hours
132 hours
Perspective on BuffersNot “rear view mirror watching”Predictive/Preventative/Leading Indicator Mechanism to Promote and encourage Team WorkCollaboration / Communication Incentive MechanismMeasuring device – Neutral, Normalized MetricsReal-time Risk MeterEncourages an holistic/goal oriented perspective
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Critical Chain Priority Metric
Project Status Trend Chart or “Fever” Chart
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Critical Chain Priority MetricProject Status Trend Chart or “Fever” Chart
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Multi-Project SystemSystems Perspective for Multiple Projects
1. Should load for multiple projects be considered jointly?– Obviously
2. Why?– Prevent System Overload/Multi-tasking
3. How? – By taking a Systems Perspective
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Finite Capacity Pipeline
Ingredients:
1. CC Plans [shorter]
2. Strategic Pacing Mechanism
3. Strict Priority Scheme
4. Rate Limit Policy/Guidelines
Due Dates Are Derived
Creating a Multi-Project Schedule
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0%
Buf
fer C
onsu
med
100
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | % Critical Chain
Completed0 10
0
By Portfolio of Projects
In Execution, Buffer Status Drives Priority Decisions, not Project Importance
Multi-Project Execution ControlPipeline Status Snap Shot
The Upshot…
Benefits1. Operational Coherence – Stability2. 20% Shorter Cycle-Times – Speed3. On-time Performance – Reliability4. More throughput – Growth
Challenges:1. Simple but not easy to grasp – too simple?2. Requires a change in mindset3. Takes 120 days for typical 100 person team4. We don’t need that much improvement
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Questions ???Robert Richards Ph.D.,
Stottler Henke Associates, [email protected]
Hilbert RobinsonPresidentAfinitus Group LLC
