Where We Were Two Years Ago:The 2007 GEO Plenary and Ministerial Summit

& The Pacific Drought Monitor

Richard R. Heim Jr.* NOAA/NESDIS/National Climatic Data Center

Asheville, North Carolina, USA

* material from Jay Lawrimore, NCDC

NADM Forum / Global Drought Assessment WorkshopAsheville, NC, USA – 21 April 2010

• The 4th Plenary Session and Ministerial Summit of the Group on Earth Observations was held in Cape Town, South Africa. November 2007

• Representatives from more than 70 nations reaffirmed their commitment to working together, at both the political and technical levels, to improve the interoperability of observation, prediction and information systems towards the continued strengthening of GEOSS and the full achievement of the 10-Year Implementation Plan.

Group on Earth Observations2007 Plenary and Ministerial Summit

• A side event was held to bring attention to the growing problem of drought and discuss concerns regarding long-term sustainability of the Earth’s water resources

• Led by the U.S., this event highlighted global trends in drought and three international programs that provide decision makers with information necessary for drought monitoring, forecasting, planning, and response.

• The event concluded with a U.S. proposal that technical representatives from participating countries build upon these programs to work toward establishing a global drought early warning system

Group on Earth Observations2007 Plenary Side Event on Drought

Group on Earth Observations2007 Plenary and Ministerial Summit

~40 people from 19 countries

- Argentina- Australia- Austria- Belgium- Botswana- Canada- France- Germany- Honduras- Japan

Introduction - Mark Myers, Director, USGS

North American Drought Monitor and NIDIS- Jay Lawrimore, NOAA/NCDC

FEWS NET- Tamuka Magadzire, FEWS NET Regional Scientist for Southern Africa

Drought Management Center for Southeastern Europe-Silvo Zlebir, Director, Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia

SERVIR- Carrie Stokes, USAID

Drought Side Meeting • 29-Nov-2007

- Kenya- Korea - Netherlands- Norway- Panama- Slovenia- South Africa- United Kingdom- USA

Drought … The Growing Threat During the past 30 years, there is evidence of an increase in the

incidence of drought worldwide

Increasing temperatures combined with growing populations and unsustainable use of water resources are combining to magnify drought’s impacts

Required Areas of Expertise

– Drought Monitoring

– Forecasting

– Impacts Monitoring and Assessment

Some or all of these areas are beginning to be addressed by national and regional programs

Response: Drought Early Warning System (DEWS)

– Research

– Education

– Planning

Group on Earth Observations2007 Plenary and Ministerial Summit

Develop a Global Drought Early Warning System within the coming decade to provide:– A system of systems for data & information sharing,

communication, & capacity building to take on the growing worldwide threat of drought

– Regular drought warning assessments issued as frequently as possible with increased frequency during a crisis

United States Proposal

Group on Earth Observations2007 Plenary and Ministerial Summit

• Approach to achieving long-term objective– Continue to expand U.S. drought capabilities through NIDIS

– Expand international linkages through activities such as the North American Drought Monitor

– Convene a meeting of technical leadership to identify needs and priorities– Identify needs as well as existing or potential capacities across nations

– Establish initial approaches and identify one or more fundamental aspects to address first

Group on Earth Observations2007 Plenary and Ministerial Summit

Pacific Drought Monitor

• Initial planning was undertaken for an Americas-Pacific drought workshop to be held at the East-West Center in Honolulu, HI in July 2008

– To identify needs, priorities, existing capacities, and gaps within developed and developing countries of the region

• Objectives of the workshop

– Initiation of a region-wide drought monitoring capacity

– Identification of improvements in drought monitoring capacities to support the drought forecasting process

– Identification of capacities necessary for monitoring the impacts of drought to better understand its effects on drought-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water resource management, energy, and transportation

• Budgetary constraints resulted in the cancellation of workshop plans

A GDEWS Conceptual Framework – An Integration of Continental / Regional Drought Monitors

Continental / Regional Drought MonitorsOne Conceptual Framework

Level 1(NADM Model) Level 2 Level 3

Drought ExpertsIn-house expertise for monitoring, forecasting, impacts, research, planning, education

Limited in-house expertise

Rely on external expertise

National Climate Observing Network

Extensive data networks, near-real time daily observations

Limited networks (spatial density and/or timeliness)

Rely on national CLIMAT/ WWW reports and external observations (e.g., satellite obs & global models)

National Drought Assessments

National Drought Monitor already routinely produced timely (monthly or more frequently)

National assessments produced to support regional/continental monitoring

Rely on external expertise to produce national assessments

International Data Exchange

Station data exchanged for creation of regional or continental standardized indicators

Limited data exchanged internationally

Only CLIMAT or WWW data exchanged internationally

International Collaboration

National experts collaborate to create regional or continental Drought Monitor

Some national input to regional or continental Drought Monitor

Rely on external experts to produce national assessment for regional/ continental Monitor

IT Infrastructure ArcGIS, web, emailLimited ArcGIS, web, and/or email access

No IT infrastructure, rely on alternatives