Rice Stocks Measurement, Methodologies and Practices ......Hom Mali rice (Grade B) White rice 5%...
Transcript of Rice Stocks Measurement, Methodologies and Practices ......Hom Mali rice (Grade B) White rice 5%...
Bureau of Agricultural Economic Research (BAER)
Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE)
Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (MOAC)
2nd Joint National Workshop on Rice Data
for Thailand and the Philippines
Manila, The Philippines
3-4 December 2014
Rice Stocks Measurement, Methodologies
and Practices: Progress and IssuesEngaging with Professional Associations
Outline
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1. Rice Situation
2. Rice Stock Measurement
3. Limitations and Issues
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1. Rice Situation
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1.1 Production
2.782.79
2.86
2.93
2.98
11.6412.91 13.34 12.97 12.36
32.4036.00
38.10 38.00
36.84
2.50
2.60
2.70
2.80
2.90
3.00
3.10
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Yield Planted area Production (paddy)
(million tons, million hectares) (ton/hectare)
1. Rice Situation
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1.2 Rice Demand
0
5
10
15
20
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014**
Domestic utilization* Export(million tons as paddy)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 GR (%) 2014 ∆%
Domestic utilization 17.64 17.79 16.26 16.75 16.53 -1.88 16.33 -1.21
Export (paddy) 13.06 13.55 16.23 10.20 10.02 -7.83 15.15 51.20
Export (milled rice)*** 8.62 8.94 10.71 6.73 6.61 -7.83 10.00 51.20
*Domestic utilization includes food use, feed use, seed use and industrial use.
** forecasted, ***Conversion rate: Paddy : Milled Rice = 1:0.66
1. Rice Situation
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1.3 Farm Gate Price
13,171 14,961
15,365 14,85914,013
8,315
9,66210,156
8,7637,695
15,109
13,614
11,925
12,58612,062
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
Hom Mali rice White rice (15% moisture) Glutinous rice (long grain)
(Baht/Ton)
GR=1.18
GR=-5.15
GR=-2.49
*Average of Jan-Nov 2014
1. Rice Situation
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1.4 Export Price (FOB price)
1,023 1,0431,080
1,151
977
493
550 575517
425
901
999
815
935
805
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
Hom Mali rice (Grade B) White rice 5% Glutinous rice (long grain, 10% broken)
(US$/Ton)
GR=0.07
GR=-2.87
GR=-3.52
*Average of Jan-Nov 2014
2. Rice Stocks Measurement
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2.1 Commodity Balance (Source of data)
Supply DemandChange in Stocks
(Ending Stocks – Beginning Stocks)
Production
Import
Domestic
Utilization
Export
Center of Agricultural Information (CAI),
OAE
The Customs Department, MOF
The Customs Department,
MOF
Estimated by BEAR
2. Rice Stocks Measurement
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2.2 Domestic Utilization Estimation
Seed Use
Industrial Use
Consumption
(Food Use)
Planted Area1 Seed Rate1
Data from Thai Rice Association
Domestic
Utilization
Feed UseNumber of
Livestock1 Feed Ratio2
Data Sources: 1 CAI, OAE2 Department of Livestock Development, MOAC
2. Rice Stocks Measurement
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2.3 Consumption (Food Use) Estimation
Consumption (Food Use)
Thai
Foreign Workers
Tourists
Population1 Consumption per capita2
Number of
foreign workers3 Consumption per capita
Number of
tourists4
15*(2/3)*1/365*Consumption per capita
Data Sources: 1 Ministry of Interior2 National Statistical Office3 Ministry of Labor4 Ministry of Tourism and Sports
2. Rice Stocks Measurement
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2.4 Stock Data
Rice Stock
Government Stock
Private Stock
Household
Stock
Survey (NCPO) in progress
Estimation based on data from MOC and Thai Rice Exporters Association
CAI
2. Rice Stocks Measurement
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2.5 Activity under the project
� Consultant, rice utilization
� Start Date:
� Duration:
� Main Objective: To provide expert advice to OAE in developing a data collection and sharing strategy for rice stock
� Activities:
1. Review existing information on rice utilization in Thailand
2. Develop a strategy for adoption of rice utilization data for residual approach
3. Limitations and Issues
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� Food Loss and Food Waste: Lack of consideration on
food loss and food waste can bring an overestimation
of consumption.
� Harvesting Loss and Post-Harvest Loss: To improve
the accuracy of data, those losses should be taken
into account since it can affect the stock calculation.
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Thank you