Review of Illawarra housing market

140005-Draft report (residential)-140415

Review of Illawarra housing market Final report Planning & Infrastructure April 2014

140005-Draft report (residential)-140415

This report has been prepared for Planning & Infrastructure. SGS Economics and Planning has taken all due care in the preparation of this report. However, SGS and its associated consultants are not liable to any person or entity for any damage or loss that has occurred, or may occur, in relation to that person or entity taking or not taking action in respect of any representation, statement, opinion or advice referred to herein. SGS Economics and Planning Pty Ltd ACN 007 437 729 www.sgsep.com.au Offices in Canberra, Hobart, Melbourne and Sydney

http://www.sgsep.com.au/

Review of Illawarra housing market

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I Illawarra housing market i

Overview i Housing market ii Trends and drivers ii

Dwelling demand, supply and capacity iii Dwelling demand, supply and capacity iii Affordable housing iv Social housing iv Aged care v

1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Strategy and policy review 1

Illawarra Regional Strategy 1 Illawarra Discussion Paper 3 Shoalhaven LGA (South Coast Regional Strategy) 4 Local Government strategies 5 Illawarra Urban Development Program Update 5

1.3 Summary 8

2 ILLAWARRA HOUSING MARKET 10 2.1 Current housing market dynamics in the Illawarra region 10

Sales history – single residential dwellings 10 Sales history – residential strata units 11 Median rents 12 Vacancy rates 14

2.2 Broad housing market trends and drivers 14 2.3 Summary 16

Housing market 16 Trends and drivers 17

3 DWELLING DEMAND, SUPPLY AND CAPACITY 18 3.1 Dwelling demand, supply and capacity 18

Dwelling demand 18 Dwelling capacity and gap analysis 20

3.2 Affordable housing provision 21 3.3 Social housing requirements 24

Current supply 24 Issues associated with current supply 25 Development pipeline 25

3.4 Aged care requirements 25 Ageing in place 26 Aged facilities: Independent Living Units 26

Review of Illawarra housing market

Aged facilities: residential aged care 28 3.5 Summary 31

Dwelling demand, supply and capacity 31 Affordable housing 31 Social housing 32 Aged care 32

APPENDIX 1: HOUSING DEMAND OUTPUTS BY LGA 33 Method and assumptions 33 Family type projections 34 Dwelling type projections 38

APPENDIX 2: AFFORDABLE HOUSING CALCULATIONS 43 APPENDIX 3: AFFORDABLE HOUSING SUPPLY BY LGA 44

Review of Illawarra housing market i

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

SGS was commissioned by Planning & Infrastructure (P&I) to conduct a review of the housing market in the Illawarra region. This included determining trends and drivers in the residential market, identifying capacity and supply blockages, and projecting future requirements for zoned land. As such, the study provides a high level strategic assessment of housing demand and capacity in the region based on a ‘base case’ demand allocation of no policy intervention and no deviation from prevailing trends. We understand that P&I will be completing further work to examine lot and precinct level opportunities, drawing on outputs from the Urban Feasibility Model (UFM), which considers development feasibility and constraints to assess likely future potential for new dwellings. The key objectives of the residential market study are to:

review and update the existing Housing Type and Formation Study undertaken by SGS Economics and Planning in 2006 on behalf of the then Department of Planning.

identify housing related issues in the Illawarra.

provide an understanding changing trends and preferences being demonstrated for housing in the Illawarra including housing demand, housing types, household size.

suggest targets for the Illawarra, taking into account demand and current housing stocks.

estimate the infill potential of Wollongong, Shellharbour and Kiama LGAs.

provide an overview of the Illawarra housing market over the last five years including land and house prices, rental costs, general building and development activity, affordability and locations of demand.

The Illawarra region includes the local government areas of Wollongong, Shoalhaven, Shellharbour and Kiama. Wollongong is the largest LGA and contains the regional centre for the region, Wollongong. The other major centres include Warrawong, Dapto and Shellharbour city centre. Between 2011 and 2031 the population of the Illawarra region is projected to grow from 385,250 people to 450,300 people (annual growth rate of 0.78% per annum). An additional 39,050 dwellings will be required by 2031 to accommodate this growth.

Illawarra housing market

Overview

Between 2011 and 2031 the population of the Illawarra region is projected to grow from 385,250 people to 450,300 people. P&I estimates that this population will require an additional 39,050 dwellings by 2031. The Illawarra Discussion Paper notes that in terms of household types, there are expected to be fewer families with children, more couples without children and more lone person households over the next 20 years, requiring a mix of housing types. Detached housing is expected to remain the most common, comprising half of the region’s future additional dwelling stock. If these demographic trends are anticipated to occur at a different rate than in the past, this will have implications for household demand modelling. For example, a faster rate of change in the number of single person households might imply a greater number of dwellings, and smaller, more affordable houses than that predicted from a perpetuation of historical trends. The IUDP shows that dwelling production has fluctuated over the past 10 years (both in terms of dwelling completions and types of dwellings). Overall, it shows a declining growth in average dwelling supply, which is concerning given population growth, the changing population structure, and housing affordability issues. P&I has identified 31,000 lots as potential for greenfield development, including 17,000 lots in West Dapto and 7,700 lots in Calderwood. Although significant increases in greenfield dwelling supply are forecast over the coming five years, it will be important for P&I to work with developers and local councils to assist in achieving this where possible. This is particularly the case in light of the underachieving of targets for greenfield lots in previous years, with the average of 500 lots per year over the past decade falling far short of the annual target of 760. In addition to P&I providing clear zoning guidelines and planning documents, facilitating infrastructure service provision to new

Review of Illawarra housing market ii

release areas should be a priority, given the reliance of areas such as West Dapto and Tallawarra on the timely delivery of water and water waste infrastructure for development. It would be worthwhile examining ways of supporting infill development, with development in infill areas forecast to decrease from 46% to 28% over the coming decade. This appears to be a suboptimal outcome from a planning perspective, given the higher infrastructure costs, car dependence, and energy usage associated with greenfield development, as well as decreased accessibility and use of rural land. Local councils should be encouraged to undertake a precinct identification exercise for infill development in existing centres, and examine the opportunities for block or precinct redevelopment/ planning (which could include assistance from UrbanGrowth NSW). In terms of dwelling completions, the outlook for Wollongong and Shellharbour LGAs appears to be positive. However, Kiama LGA is falling behind on meeting supply targets. The demand from non-residents for second homes in the area could be having a significant effect on the market and may be an area for potential further examination, through analysis of Census data of non-residents. Consultation with local developers will give an idea of the specific constraints around development, which could relate to the development assessment process, or local resident concerns. Feasibility issues may also be a driver despite the relatively high and growing house and unit prices in the LGA. It is noted in the IUDP update prepared by P&I that the Kiama LGA does not meet land supply benchmarks and sites have been investigated by council for rezoning as a result.

Housing market

The market in Kiama is characterised by a small number of house and unit sales and high median prices, reflecting the limited dwelling supply within the LGA (although this is not necessarily due to limited land supply). The median sales price for a house is $549,000 and a unit is $393,000. Analysis shows that Wollongong LGA is characterised by a high number of sales, a median house price of $430,000 and unit price of $340,000, while house and unit prices are the lowest in Shellharbour LGA with a median house price of $375,000 and unit price of $295,000. Shoalhaven LGA is characterised by a high number of sales and low median dwelling prices of $335,000 for a house and $250,000 for a unit. Planning & Infrastructure is currently investigating the submarkets within and across the LGAs. In terms of rent, prices within each LGA are relatively similar, with a four bedroom home achieving around $500 per week in Wollongong LGA and $470 per week in Kiama and Shellharbour LGAs. In Shoalhaven LGA, rents are much lower at $400 per week for a four bedroom dwelling. The rent for two and three bedroom dwellings is highest in Kiama LGA, followed by Wollongong and Shellharbour LGAs. In general, Shoalhaven and Shellharbour LGAs are more affordable, while there are potential affordability concerns in the housing market in Kiama LGA. The dwelling vacancy rates in Shoalhaven (27.5%) and Kiama (18.9%) are much higher than in Wollongong (7.6%) and Shellharbour (6.1%); most likely due to a concentration of tourist accommodation. The impact of tourism accommodation in Shoalhaven and Kiama could be an area for further work, determining the impact on required dwelling supply.

Trends and drivers

On the whole, a review of available literature and consultation with local real estate agents suggests that the Illawarra property market is performing strongly, with investment driving notable price growth, fast turnover of properties (of generally less than 30 days), and a low level of rental vacancies (of under 2%). Demand has been driven particularly by lower interest rates and the relative affordability and lifestyle choices of the Illawarra compared with Sydney. Local real estate agents suggested that inter-regional migration is occurring, with people increasingly moving to the Illawarra from Sydney, in addition to intra-regional migration of empty nesters moving from the outer suburbs towards the centre of Wollongong. This is also the case in Shoalhaven, where retirees are moving from the coast towards Nowra-Bomaderry to be closer to facilities and services. The strong demand for property both for rental and purchase has created a challenge for first home buyers and lower income residents. In particular, there is insufficient student accommodation, with Wollongong University reporting a shortage of between 500 and 1000 beds for students, despite its purchase of the former Ibis Wollongong for development of 150 rooms (which opened as Marketview at the start of the 2012 academic year) and the recent opening of a new on-campus residence – Kooloobong Village – for 360 students. There is a role for P&I in working with Wollongong Council and the university to identify suitable sites for development of further student accommodation. In particular, applications for boarding houses in areas close to the university have been contentious, and consultation with local residents may ease concerns and facilitate this form of development in future. Addressing the issue of a shortage of student housing is vital to supporting the university, to attracting students from outside the local area who contribute to the economy and are likely to attract additional tourism, and to reducing pressure on the private rental market.

Review of Illawarra housing market iii

Although the Illawarra has traditionally been characterised by detached housing, there is a growing demand for apartments (particularly in North Wollongong and Wollongong CBD). Apartments are often more affordable than other housing types in the same area, and are generally located in the inner city with good amenity and access to services and employment. They are particularly attractive to younger generations, including students, and in some cases to empty nesters seeking to downsize. In order to provide housing choice, it is important that local councils consider the need for apartments and medium density dwellings in their planning. The local residential markets vary considerably, with a large gap between the achievable sales prices in Wollongong, Kiama, Shellharbour and Shoalhaven. Kiama LGA is the most expensive, with limited growth in housing supply and tourist accommodation and second homes constraining the supply side, followed by Wollongong. Shellharbour and Shoalhaven have the lowest prices within the region. Agents noted that Shellharbour was attractive for first home buyers due to the regional relocation grant offered for settlement; however, buyers are now required to move at least 100km from their previous residence. At any rate, SGS believes this scheme was unlikely to be influencing the regional housing market to any significant degree. Shoalhaven LGA is also attracting demand from Navy officers and their families associated with the Navy Air Station, located in Nowra. Real estate agents noted that infrastructure costs for developers are a significant supply blockage, which suggests a greater role for infill development where possible (for which infrastructure has already been provided), although the capacity of existing infrastructure to accommodate higher densities would require testing. Infill development could also assist in addressing demand for apartments as noted above. In addition, the ageing population is a key demographic trend and likely to impact significantly on the Illawarra housing market over the coming decades. Infill locations provide proximity to existing community, health and entertainment facilities and good transport connections, and therefore these are likely to be preferable to greenfield sites as people age. Local councils should be encouraged to consider the requirements for accessible housing that allows residents to age in place if they choose. In addition, there will be a need for an increased number of aged care facilities and affordable housing for key staff in the sector.

Dwelling demand, supply and capacity


Demand analysis P&I has issued population projections that forecast an increase in the population of the Illawarra region of 65,000 people between 2011 and 2031 to a total population of 450,300, with the majority of the population continuing to reside in either Wollongong or Shoalhaven LGA. Based on these forecasts, P&I has projected that an additional 39,050 dwellings will be required to meet the population projections: 16,100 additional dwellings in Wollongong LGA, 10,150 in Shoalhaven LGA, 9,800 in Shellharbour LGA and 3,000 in Kiama LGA. Dwelling demand modelling was conducted using these projections. Dwelling demand is anticipated to continue to be the greatest for detached housing, while the highest growth rate over the period will be for semi-detached housing. There is expected to be demand for 21,731 additional separate dwellings (56% of the total increase), 14,006 additional semi-detached/ row/ terrace/ townhouse dwellings (36%) and 2,722 flat/unit/apartments (7%) in the Illawarra region by 2031. These results highlight the need for future development within the Illawarra to cater for the growing demand for semi-detached dwellings, particularly within Wollongong, Shoalhaven and Shellharbour LGAs. Gap analysis SGS conducted a high level strategic assessment of the capacity for additional dwellings in the Wollongong, Kiama and Shellharbour LGAs. Combined with the demand analysis above, this showed that at face value there is sufficient land to accommodate demand for single residential dwellings and flats across these three LGAs to 2031, if a ‘business as usual’ scenario for development is assumed (that is, that the future development profile of an area matches existing profiles). To inform appropriate housing policy, ‘bottom up’ inputs such as site-specific development issues and feasibility as well as ‘top down’ policy/ strategy inputs should be considered. We understand that P&I will be completing further work to examine lot and precinct level opportunities across the Illawarra’s four LGAs, drawing on outputs from the Urban Feasibility Model (UFM), which considers development feasibility and constraints to assess likely future potential for new dwellings.

Review of Illawarra housing market iv

Historical development is a driver of housing allocation in this model. In this sense it should be considered a ‘base case’. However, given the complexity of the residential market in the region, the importance of certainty for the development industry, and the need for government to efficiently plan for future infrastructure and facilities, it is vital for P&I to identify renewal areas and policy initiatives that will help drive optimal development patterns in future. The analysis found that there is projected to be insufficient supply of semi-detached dwellings across the three LGAs of Wollongong, Kiama and Shellharbour from 2021 onwards (the supply shortage in Shellharbour LGA is forecast to begin in 2016). A shortage of semi-detached dwellings could lead to price rises for this dwelling form, buyer substitution of product types (where residents would prefer to buy a semi-detached home but will settle for a detached home if there is insufficient supply), or buyer substitution of locations (for example, people wishing to buy a semi-detached home in one area may choose to locate in another area where semi-detached housing is more readily available). It may be the case that a minimal change in dwelling preferences would achieve the required market adjustment. In addition, between 2031 and 2036, Kiama LGA’s predicted lack of zoned available land for apartments theoretically means that Wollongong LGA would have to absorb additional demand for apartments from Kiama. At a regional level, the density uplift associated with the allocation of dwelling demand is not expected to be a substantial shift from the existing densities in the Wollongong, Kiama and Shellharbour LGAs.

Affordable housing

Housing NSW has identified a moderate high to high need for affordable housing across the Illawarra region. Based on analysis of income and rental data, just over a quarter of all households in the Illawarra region are experiencing housing stress, and 32% of households on moderate, low and very low incomes. Housing stress is higher in Wollongong LGA compared to Kiama, Shoalhaven and Shellharbour LGAs. Demand for affordable housing is far outstripping supply. At a broad level, there is currently supply of around 4,400 affordable dwellings, which will meet only 16% of the demand for such housing from moderate, low and very low income households assumed to make up the market in the region. Councils should be encouraged to review planning controls to facilitate the delivery of a diverse range of housing types. This is a key step in improving affordability as households are more likely to be able to rent or purchase housing that suits their circumstances. In particular, existing planning instruments should be reviewed to ensure that there are no significant barriers to the development of medium density housing (such as maximum lot sizes for subdivision, increased densities in centres and public transport infrastructure, minimum dwelling sizes, excessive car parking requirements, and the permissibility of shop-top housing development). Potential measures to encourage medium density and affordable housing in centres and mixed use developments could be investigated by P&I, such as precinct planning. This could be through consultation with the development industry to gain insight into the ability, desirability, returns and practical incentives required to make these types of development feasible.

Social housing

As at March 2014, Land and Housing Corporation advised that there were 11,334 social housing properties in the Illawarra, the majority of which were cottages. As is the case across the state, a greater provision of social housing is required in the Illawarra to address significant undersupply; particularly given the inability of the private rental market to fill the gap for lower income households. There isn’t much of a role for P&I in facilitating this, beyond ensuring that there are no unnecessarily restrictive controls on development in areas with social housing concentrations, ensuring development control provisions are consistent, and encouraging medium density housing in centres. SGS does not believe that it is in the public interest for areas with social housing developments to be granted floorspace ratios out of line with those in the surrounding locations, irrespective of whether by doing so, the redevelopment of ageing and inappropriate social housing stock would be enabled.

Review of Illawarra housing market v

Aged care

An ageing population and retirement-led migration are likely to bring challenges for the Illawarra. Ageing in place, where residents continue living in their homes after retirement, is a strong preference for many and should be facilitated within the planning process, for example by ensuring that a proportion of new development is adaptable and accessible. Encouraging development of secondary suite (‘granny flat’) accommodation in new and existing developments may also support a higher degree of ageing in place. This has the potential to reduce the case load for community service by supporting enhanced home care from family and friends, and reduce the overall demand for new housing as occupancy levels are optimised. Councils should be encouraged to promote this form of development where possible. In terms of the supply of accommodation that supports ageing, there are around 994 independent living units (ILUs) in the Illawarra region, with a minimum expected demand of 1,436 new units by 2031. Assuming that the current service ratio remains constant and no additional capacity is made available, an undersupply of 442 units by 2031 is conservatively expected. In addition, there are almost 4,000 total beds in residential aged care facilities in the Illawarra, 48% of which are in Wollongong. Currently, the supply of aged care in the Illawarra region meets the required ratio of 80 places per 1,000 people aged 70 years and over. However, if there is no increase in supply in coming years, by 2016 there will be a gap of 495 places in residential aged care facilities, increasing steadily to 2,879 places in 2031. To address these predicted shortages in aged care, P&I should continue engaging with providers in the sector. This may improve communication and provide the right signals for developers and operators of aged care to consider the Illawarra as a feasible location for services. It is also vital to encourage development of flexible housing that can be adapted to suit its occupants’ needs.

Review of Illawarra housing market 1

1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Introduction

SGS was commissioned by Planning and Infrastructure (P&I) to conduct a review of the housing market in the Illawarra region. This included determining trends and drivers in the residential market, identifying capacity and supply blockages, and projecting future requirements for zoned land.

1.2 Strategy and policy review

Illawarra Regional Strategy

The Illawarra Regional Strategy was prepared by the then Department of Planning in 2007, which included the local government areas (LGAs) of Wollongong, Shellharbour and Kiama. The Strategy established a centre hierarchy for the region (refer to Table 1 and Figure 1) and identified a number of strategies for accommodating population and employment growth within the region to 2031. The focus is on concentrating growth within these centres.

TABLE 1 . I LL AWARR A CENT RE HIE RARCHY

Centre type Locations

Regional City Wollongong

Major Regional Centres Warrawong, Shellharbour City Centre and Dapto (emerging)

Major Towns Kiama, Corrimal, Figtree, Warilla, Albion Park, Unanderra (emerging) and Fairy Meadow (emerging)

Towns Examples include: Helensburgh, Thirroul, Woonona, Shell Cove and Gerringong

Villages Examples include: Coledale, Bulli, Keiraville, Mt Kembla, Shellharbour and Jamberoo Source: Adapted from Department of Planning, 2007

Subsequently, the Illawarra region has been expanded to include Shoalhaven LGA.


FI GURE 1 . I LLAWARR A REGIO N STRU C TURE PLAN

Source: Department of Planning, 2007


Housing and settlement The Strategy identifies that the Illawarra region had a population of 281,000 people in 2006 and is expected to reach 328,600 people by 2031 (excluding Shoalhaven). This translates into a requirement for 38,000 additional dwellings including:

19,400 detached

14,800 medium density

3,800 high density. A capacity assessment conducted in 2006 is highlighted in Table 2. West Dapto is identified within the Strategy as the priority new release area alongside existing release areas at Sandon Point, Tullimar, Flinders, Shell Cove and Redgum Ridge. Potential release areas have been identified at Calderwood and south of Gerringong.

TABLE 2 . C APACITY FO R HO USI NG I N THE REG ION , 20 06

Area Detached Medium density High density Total

West Dapto release area 8,250 2,750 ― 11,000

Current new release areas 5,300 1,250 ― 6,550

Zoned vacant infill land 4,600 300 ― 4,900

Redevelopment 3,550 3,750 3,900 11,200

Total 21,700 8,050 3,900 33,650 Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2006, in the Illawarra Regional Strategy, 2007

Illawarra Discussion Paper

In August 2013, the then Department of Planning and Infrastructure (DP&I) released the Illawarra Discussion Paper, which will inform the development of a new Illawarra Regional Growth Plan. The paper provides a number of updated targets, trends and strategies for the Illawarra region. The Discussion Paper is for a 20 year timeframe to 2031. The paper provides a snapshot of the Illawarra region, as at 2011 (refer to Figure 2).

FI GURE 2 . SNAP SHOT O F THE ILLAWARRA REGIO N I N 20 11

Source: Department of Planning and Infrastructure, 2013.


The Discussion Paper notes that the population of the Illawarra grew from 277,980 to 288,100 people between 2006 and 2011, and that the region is expected to have a population of 340,400 people by 2031 (DP&I 2013) requiring an additional 31,300 dwellings. As noted elsewhere in this report, these projections have subsequently been updated by P&I and current projections suggest a population of 450,300 in 2031 and a requirement for an additional 39,050 dwellings from 2011. In terms of household types, there are expected to be fewer families with children, more couples without children and more lone person households. Figure 3 highlights the housing projections by LGA for the Illawarra detailed in the Discussion Paper, which used the previous forecasts.

FI GURE 3 . HOUSING P ROJECT IO NS BY LG A

Source: DP&I 2013.

Shoalhaven LGA (South Coast Regional Strategy)

Shoalhaven LGA was previously located within the South Coast region of NSW. Under the South Coast Regional Strategy, Shoalhaven LGA contains four main centres:

Nowra-Bomaderry (major regional centre)

Vincentia (major town)

Ulladulla (major town)

Sussex Inlet (town)

FI GURE 4 . HOUSING P ROJECT IO NS BY LG A

Source: Department of Planning, 2007


Local Government strategies

A number of local government strategies have been considered throughout this study and include the following:

The Wollongong Housing Study was undertaken by SGS in 2005 to provide future strategic direction for housing in Wollongong LGA.

The Helensburgh Urban Capacity Analysis was undertaken by SGS in 2006 to identify residential demand, the current supply of land and consider options for increasing the supply of residential land or redevelopment potential of Helensburgh.

The Kiama Urban Strategy, prepared by Kiama Council in 2011, considers both urban infill and urban expansion opportunities and options and makes recommendations as to an appropriate approach for the Kiama LGA.

Illawarra Urban Development Program Update

A draft of the Illawarra Urban Development Program (IUDP) Update Report 2013 was provided by Planning & Infrastructure and highlights a number of trends in relation to dwelling demand and supply in the Illawarra region, summarised below. P&I is currently working on an update to this information. Revisions so far suggest that new greenfield dwelling completions in 2012/13 were almost four times those in 2010/11, and that the total amount of land zoned for greenfield development increased substantially in 2010 due to the rezoning of West Dapto stages 1 and 2 and Tallawarra, and again in 2011 with Calderwood. In addition, revised greenfield lot projections for 2016/17 are more than double those in 2012/13. Illawarra region Some of the key headlines for the study area are as follows:

Annual population growth has fluctuated but overall is growing.

There has been a decreasing rate of growth in dwelling supply over last 10 years; however, an increase in 2011/12 is highlighted as potentially indicating a change in the market (refer to Figure 5).

Greenfield dwelling production has been at 408 dwellings per annum over the past 10 years and is forecast to reach 894 lots per annum.

There is a lag in construction of developments after time of approval in the Illawarra region, although dwelling completions are expected to continue to increase.

FI GURE 5 . I LLAWARR A REGIO N ANNUAL CH ANGE I N DWELL I NG SUPPLY

Source: Department of Planning and Infrastructure, 2013


Dwelling type mix has fluctuated (refer to Figure 6) and is forecast to meet the target of 50% split between detached and multi-unit. The high proportion of detached dwellings constructed in 2012 (accounting for over 75%) is likely to be primarily due to the development of new greenfield release areas.

FI GURE 6 . I LLAWARR A REGIO N DWEL L ING SUPPLY BY H O U SI NG TYPE


The IUDP highlights that greenfield release areas are expected to play more of a role in supplying dwellings over the next five years. The proportion of dwellings supplied from centres and infill areas compared to greenfield areas has fluctuated over the past 10 years (refer to Figure 7). Greenfield lot production has averaged 500 lots per annum. This is lower than the target of 760 dwellings per year in the Illawarra regional Strategy. Forecasts average 899 lots annually. In terms of forecasts, the IUDP projects that over the next 10 years:

development within centres will remain constant at 20%.

development within infill areas is forecast to decrease from 46% to 28%.

development within greenfield areas is forecast to nearly double from 33% to 60%, with more recent data suggesting additionally that greenfield lot forecasts for 2016/17 of around 1300 lots are more than double those in 2012/13.

FI GURE 7 . DWELL I NG SUPPLY BY LO C ATIO N: GREE NFIELD RELEASE AREAS AND I N FILL / CENTRES



The report identifies centres within the Illawarra region (excluding Shoalhaven) where an increase in dwelling density may be appropriate (Table 3).

TABLE 3 . CE NT RES W ITH P OTENTIAL FOR I NCR EA SE D DENSITY

Local Government Area Centre

Wollongong Helensburgh

Thirroul

Woonona

Corrimal

Fairy Meadow

Figtree

Wollongong

Unanderra

Warrawong

Dapto

Shellharbour Albion Park

Oak Flats

Shellharbour City Centre

Warilla

Shell Cove (emerging)

Kiama Kiama

Gerringong Source: Department of Planning and Infrastructure, 2013

P&I has identified 31,000 lots as potential for greenfield development. This includes 17,000 lots in West Dapto and 7,700 lots in Calderwood. Approximately 55% of this land is zoned and 11% is zoned and service ready (refer to Figure 8). The remaining major greenfield release areas are located in Wollongong and Shellharbour LGAs and include:

Tallawarra (1,070)

West Dapto (16,999)

Calderwood (7,700)

Shell Cove (1,150)

Tullimbar (1,510)

FI GURE 8 . GREE NFIELD L AND POTENTI AL : TOTAL , ZO NE D AND SERVICE READY

Source: Department of Planning and Infrastructure, 2013.

The IUDP update report provides the following LGA summaries. Wollongong LGA

Building approval and dwelling completion activity indicate a positive outlook for the short term for all sectors of development, including both greenfield land releases and development in existing areas.


Timely delivery of water and waste water infrastructure is perhaps most critical for this LGA given that four of the seven release areas within this LGA (Bulli Bricks, Sandon Point, Haywards Bay and Redgum Ridge) will be complete by 2016/17 and the remainder, West Dapto (Stages 1 and 2), Tallawarra and a portion of Calderwood, are reliant on the delivery of water and waste water infrastructure.

Shellharbour LGA

Building approvals and dwelling completion activity indicate a positive outlook for the short and medium term particularly for greenfield development.

Commencement of work on Shell Cove Boat Harbour will complement the ongoing (but higher density) dwelling potential of Shell Cove.

While this LGA is well placed to deliver greenfield housing over the short term given the remaining dwelling potential at Flinders (156), Shell Cove (1,150), Tullimbar (1,510) and Calderwood (4,800), in the medium and longer term its focus for housing will come from redevelopment and renewal around its Town Centres.

Kiama LGA

Building approval activity for Kiama LGA has slowly been increasing since 2007/08, but has not increased to levels needed to satisfy housing projections in the Illawarra Regional Strategy.

Of concern is that this LGA does not meet any of the land supply benchmarks for all three categories; land identified, zoned, and zoned and service ready.

Kiama Council has identified a number of sites that will be investigated for rezoning in the short term to address this shortfall.

1.3 Summary

Between 2011 and 2031 the population of the Illawarra region is expected to grow to 450,300 people. P&I estimates that this population will require an additional 35,050 dwellings by 2031. The Illawarra Discussion Paper notes that in terms of household types, there are expected to be fewer families with children, more couples without children and more lone person households over the next 20 years, requiring a mix of housing types. Detached housing is expected to remain the most common, comprising half of the region’s future additional dwelling stock. If these demographic trends are anticipated to occur at a different rate than in the past, this will have implications for household demand modelling. For example, a faster rate of change in the number of single person households might imply a greater number of dwellings, and smaller, more affordable houses than that predicted from a perpetuation of historical trends. The IUDP shows that dwelling production has fluctuated over the past 10 years (both in terms of dwelling completions and types of dwellings). Overall, it shows a declining growth in average dwelling supply, which is concerning given population growth, the changing population structure, and housing affordability issues. P&I has identified 31,000 lots as potential for greenfield development, including 17,000 lots in West Dapto and 7,700 lots in Calderwood. Although significant increases in greenfield dwelling supply are forecast over the coming five years, it will be important for P&I to work with developers and local councils to assist in achieving this where possible. This is particularly the case in light of the underachieving of targets for greenfield lots in previous years, with the average of 500 lots per year over the past decade falling far short of the annual target of 760. In addition to P&I providing clear zoning guidelines and planning documents, facilitating infrastructure service provision to new release areas should be a priority, given the reliance of areas such as West Dapto and Tallawarra on the timely delivery of water and water waste infrastructure for development. It would be worthwhile examining ways of supporting infill development, with development in infill areas forecast to decrease from 46% to 28% over the coming decade. This appears to be a suboptimal outcome from a planning perspective, given the higher infrastructure costs, car dependence, and energy usage associated with greenfield development, as well as decreased accessibility and use of rural land. Local councils should be encouraged to undertake a precinct identification exercise for infill development in existing centres, and examine the opportunities for block or precinct redevelopment/ planning (which could include assistance from UrbanGrowth NSW). In terms of dwelling completions, the outlook for Wollongong and Shellharbour LGAs appears to be positive. However, Kiama LGA is falling behind on meeting supply targets. The demand from non-residents for second homes in the area could be having a significant effect on the market and may be an area for potential further examination,


through analysis of Census data of non-residents. Consultation with local developers will give an idea of the specific constraints around development, which could relate to the development assessment process, or local resident concerns. Feasibility issues may also be a driver despite the relatively high and growing house and unit prices in the LGA. It is noted in the IUDP update prepared by P&I that the Kiama LGA does not meet land supply benchmarks and sites have been investigated by council for rezoning as a result.


2 ILLAWARRA HOUSING MARKET

2.1 Current housing market dynamics in the Illawarra region

Sales history – single residential dwellings

Median sales price The median sales since 2006 has been analysed to provide an understanding of historical trends and the current housing market in the Illawarra. Figure 9 illustrates the median sale prices for single residential dwellings for LGAs within the Illawarra region between 2006 and 2013. It shows that:

median house prices are greater in Kiama LGA than the other LGAs

the median house price peaked in both 2010 and 2012 for all LGA.

the median house price was at its lowest in 2008 for all LGAs

the median house price has increased by $33,500 in Shoalhaven LGA between 2006 and 2013, rising to $45,000 in Shellharbour LGA, $55,000 in Wollongong LGA and $64,000 in Kiama LGA.

FI GURE 9 . MEDI AN SALES PRI CES FOR SI NGLE RESI DENTI AL DWE LL ING S, 20 06 TO 201 3

Source: RP Data, 2013 and RP Data, 2014. Note: data for Wollongong, Kiama and Shellharbour was collected up to June 2013. Data for Shoalhaven is collected up to December 2013.

Number of sales Figure 10 illustrates the number of single residential dwellings sales in the Illawarra LGAs between 2006 and 2013 highlighting:

Wollongong LGA experienced double the sales of Shellharbour LGA and more than four times the sales of Kiama.

Sales in Shoalhaven LGA have been strong over this period, particularly compared to Shellharbour and Kiama LGAs.

The number of sales has fluctuated over this period. The housing market is more active in Wollongong and Shoalhaven, compared to Kiama and Shellharbour. The level of activity in Wollongong LGA is also a reflection of the population and number of dwellings in Wollongong LGA compared to the rest of the Illawarra.

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000

$600,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Med

ian

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Wollongong Kiama Shellharbour Shoalhaven


FI GURE 10. SI NGLE RESIDE NTI AL D WEL L ING SALES, 2 006 TO 20 13

Source: RP Data, 2013 and RP Data, 2014. Note that data for Wollongong, Kiama and Shellharbour was collected up to June 2013, while data for Shoalhaven was collected up to December 2013 (which explains the relatively high level of sales).

Sales history – residential strata units

Median sales price Figure 11 illustrates the median sale prices for strata units for LGAs within the Illawarra region between 2006 and 2013.

Median unit prices are once again greater in Kiama LGA than the other LGAs.

Median unit prices in Kiama in 2012/ 2013 increased, while they declined in Wollongong and Shellharbour LGAs.

Median unit prices in Shoalhaven are the lowest across the Illawarra, with generally stable prices in 2012 and 2013.

Overall, unit prices have not increased as significantly as house prices. This highlights that Kiama LGA is likely to be inaccessible to a growing proportion of the population, with high and increasing unit prices compared to other LGAs.

FI GURE 11. MEDI AN SALES PRI CES FOR STRATA U NITS, 20 06 TO 2 013

Source: RP Data, 2013

0

500

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

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$350,000

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

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Number of sales Figure 12 illustrates the number of strata unit sales in the Illawarra LGAs between 2006 and 2013 highlighting:

Wollongong LGA experienced up to 10 times the sales of the other two LGAs highlighting there are limited strata unit developments outside of Wollongong.

The number of sales has fluctuated over this period with the highest number occurring in 2009 for all LGAs. The disproportionate gap between the number of unit sales in Wollongong LGA compared to Kiama, Shellharbour and Shoalhaven is reflective of the availability of units in Wollongong compared to the other LGAs in the Illawarra.

FI GURE 12. RESI DE NTIAL STR ATA U NIT SALES, 200 6 TO 2 013

Source: RP Data, 2013

Median rents

Rental values are likely to be less reliable than sales values, due to the lower supply of rental properties and higher degree of price variability as a result. Median rental data should be considered in this light. Figure 13 illustrates the median rents for four bedroom dwellings in the Illawarra region LGAs between 2006 and 2013. Generally, it shows higher rents in Wollongong LGA, although rents are relatively similar across the LGAs.

0

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800

1,000

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

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FI GURE 13. MEDI AN RE NT FOR FO UR B EDROOM DWELL ING S, 2 00 6 - 2013

Source: Housing NSW Rent and Sales Reports 2006-2013. Data does not extend to Shoalhaven LGA.

The median rents for three bedroom dwellings are illustrated in Figure 14, with median rent in Shellharbour lower than in both Wollongong and Kiama LGAs, which have similar figures.

FI GURE 14. MEDI AN RE NT FOR THRE E BEDROOM DWELL ING S, 2 0 06 -2013


Figure 15 illustrates the median rents for two bedroom dwellings. Once again, the median rent is lower in Shellharbour LGA than the other two LGAs. Kiama LGA’s median rent has recently overtaken that of Wollongong, which may be due to the limited supply of housing in the LGA and its position as a tourism destination.

$300

$350

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$450

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$550

Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13

Me

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Kiama

Shellharbour

$200

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$350

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$450


Me

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Kiama

Shellharbour


FI GURE 15. MEDI AN RE NT FOR TWO B EDROOM DWELL ING S, 2 00 6 - 2013


The trend for rental prices over the past five years has been a steady increase, with rental prices in Kiama LGA greater than in Wollongong and Shellharbour LGAs. This highlights that Shellharbour LGA is generally more affordable than Kiama and Wollongong LGA, particularly for two and three bedroom dwellings, and emphasises potential affordability concerns in relation to the housing market in Kiama LGA. Consultation and analysis of RP Data revealed that average rents in Shoalhaven LGA are around $250 per week for a two bedroom dwelling, $300 per week for a three bedroom dwelling and $400 per week for a four bedroom dwelling.

Vacancy rates

Table 4 contains the vacancy rates for LGAs in the Illawarra region in 2011. The vacancy rates in Shoalhaven and Kiama are much higher than in Wollongong and Shellharbour; most likely due to the concentration of holiday accommodation and second homes in these LGAs.

TABLE 4 . VAC ANCY R ATES, 2011

LGA Vacancy rate1

Wollongong 7.6%

Kiama 18.9%

Shellharbour 6.1%

Shoalhaven 27.5% Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing, 2011

2.2 Broad housing market trends and drivers

This section reveals the findings of consultation with residential real estate agents from across the region and a review of housing market literature. The findings are summarised below.

1 Unoccupied private dwellings

$150

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$400


Me

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Wollongong

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Shellharbour


The Illawarra residential property market is experiencing strong price growth, with demand outweighing supply... The strongest end of the market is below $400,000 with strong demand for house and land packages of less than $500,000 in Wollongong (suburb) and $300,000 in West Dapto. New units in Wollongong have been achieving $350,000 and the minimum for a new house and land package is around $400,000. In Shoalhaven, the lower end of the market is performing strongly; dwellings under $300,000. Strong investment is driving the low vacancies, rapid turnover and high prices, in turn creating a challenge for first home buyers trying to enter the market. High levels of demand are also evident in the fast turnover of properties across the board (generally less than 30 days). Advice from consultation revealed that between 30 and 40 days is considered good for the Illawarra. ... which is resulting in low rental vacancies. In the Illawarra, agents suggested that rental vacancies are currently under 2% and have been for an extended period (this does not concord with ABS data shown above for 2011; most likely due to the inclusion of holiday home vacancies in the Census count). Low rental vacancies are related to supply issues across the market as well as a shortage of student accommodation. Wollongong University reports a shortage of student accommodation of between 500 to 1,000 beds despite the recent opening of the refurbished former Ibis Wollongong and Kooloobong Village, together providing around 500 beds. This shortage is impacting on supply in the private rental market with students competing with residents for rental accommodation. As a benchmark, rental vacancy rates around 3 to 5% can be considered a typical rental vacancy rate, whereas a rate between 2 and 2.5% suggests a shortage in the supply of dwellings, relative to demand. Demand has been driven by interest rates, lifestyle choice and lower prices compared to Sydney. Interest rates are a macroeconomic driver of residential demand and have continued to encourage investment in property in the Illawarra. In Wollongong, demand is driven by lifestyle choice with people opting to live and work in Wollongong with short commute times comparable to Sydney. The lifestyle in terms of amenity and attractions (beaches and parks) is also a driver of demand and investment. Lower sales prices are another driving factor for the residential population to choose to live in the Illawarra over Sydney. Demand in Shoalhaven is also driven by the Naval Air Station at Nowra (the Navy’s only Air Station)

2 as Navy officers receive benefits for buying in the area.

The local markets vary in terms of achievable sales prices. In Wollongong LGA, the median house price is $430,000 compared to $540,000 in Kiama LGA, $385,000 in Shellharbour LGA and $335,000 in Shoalhaven LGA. In Wollongong LGA, an achievable sales price for apartments is $345,000, compared to $365,000 in Kiama LGA, $299,000 in Shellharbour LGA and $250,000 in Shoalhaven LGA. Kiama LGA has been described as ‘insular’ with inflated house prices due to limited growth occurring. Shoalhaven and Shellharbour have much lower prices than Wollongong and Kiama. In recent years, Shellharbour was attractive for first home buyers because a regional relocation grant was offered (which was not the case for Wollongong LGA); however, the scheme has now changed and buyers are required to move at least 100km from their previous residence. Shoalhaven attracts Navy offices and their families due to the location of the Naval Air Station at Nowra. Infrastructure costs have been cited as a major ‘blockage’ in the region and this has been contributing to the supply shortage. Infrastructure costs associated with servicing new land has been reported as a major cost for developers and has been allegedly restricting supply. Developers have been increasingly reducing the size of blocks of land (from around 500 to 300 square metres) to produce house and land packages of around $400,000 to meet the target market. Costs associated with council studies, GST and holding charges for land also contribute to supply constraints. In a residential market traditionally characterised by detached dwellings, demand for apartments has been growing. Agents suggested that demand for apartments is strongest in North Wollongong and Wollongong CBD, with empty nesters seeking to downsize and first home buyers opting to live in apartments close to services and major centres. Housing in new release areas is often developed prior to services and facilities, and so many younger people would

2 Commonwealth of Australia 2013 <www.navy.gov.au>

https://www.navy.gov.au/


prefer to live in an apartment in the centre of Wollongong for the amenity and proximity to employment and services. Agents expect this preference to continue into the future with inner-city living becoming increasingly popular. A mixture of amenity and historical factors create a ‘unique environment’ and rich atmosphere that increase the desirability of living in inner city areas

3. The trend toward inner-city apartment living has seen it promoted as a

symbol of affluent living, and vital for ensuring cities are economically, socially and environmentally sustainable4,

with vibrant centres. Many studies have found that residents of mixed use residential areas, with opportunities to walk places and with good access to local services and amenities, have higher levels of social capital and social cohesion

5.

Inter-regional migration is occurring with people increasingly moving from Sydney to Wollongong... In terms of migration patterns, as mentioned above, people are increasingly moving from Sydney to Wollongong but continuing to commute to Sydney. 20,000 Illawarra residents commute to Sydney each day, noted as an issue in terms of local employment in the current Illawarra Regional Strategy. ... and intra-regional migration is occurring in Wollongong. In terms of internal migration, empty nesters are moving within the Illawarra from the outer suburbs towards beaches and Wollongong CBD, and first home buyers are moving into new greenfield estates. This is also the case in Shoalhaven where retirees are increasingly moving from the coast to Nowra-Bomaderry to be closer to facilities, particularly medical facilities. In the future, the ageing population will likely be the key demographic change that will have the greatest impact on the dwelling supply mix in the Illawarra region. The ageing of the population is the single most important population trend predicted to occur in Australia in the next 25 years and beyond. The detailed impacts are discussed in the Commonwealth Government’s ‘Intergenerational report’

6. This demographic shift will drive changes in consumption, expenditure and employment

patterns across Australia. The ageing of the population is expected to lead to strong growth in the service industries, particularly in the health and aged care sectors as well as life insurance and superannuation

7, and will increase the

need for universal dwelling design to accommodate the needs of the changing population. It has also been suggested that it will see an increase in leisure and recreation based consumption goods and services, and less emphasis on household items

8. Some predict that the ageing population may affect employment patterns with

potential shortages of skilled labour9.

2.3 Summary

Housing market

The market in Kiama is characterised by a small number of house and unit sales and high median prices, reflecting the limited dwelling supply within the LGA (although this is not necessarily due to limited land supply). The median sales price for a house is $549,000 and a unit is $393,000. Analysis shows that Wollongong LGA is characterised by a high number of sales, a median house price of $430,000 and unit price of $340,000, while house and unit prices are the lowest in Shellharbour LGA with a median house price of $375,000 and unit price of $295,000. Shoalhaven LGA is characterised by a high number of sales and low median dwelling prices of $335,000 for a house and $250,000 for a unit. There are likely to be notable submarkets within and across the LGAs, which may be an area for further investigation by P&I through household surveys, detailed analysis of dwelling sales in specific areas and ABS migration data.

3 Hutton 2004

4 Costello 2005 and Burton 2000 in Henderson-Wilson 2008

5 Henderson-Wilson 2008

6 Commonwealth of Australia, Treasury. (2010). Australia to 2050: Future Challenges. January 2010.

7 BIS Shrapnel (2012, July). Long Term Forecasts 2012-2027, 38th Ed, p.33

8 Access Economics, 2010; Lührmann, 2005

9 BIS Shrapnel (2012, July). Long Term Forecasts 2012-2027, 38th Ed, p.33


In terms of rent, prices within each LGA are relatively similar, with a four bedroom home achieving around $500 per week in Wollongong LGA and $470 per week in Kiama and Shellharbour LGAs. In Shoalhaven LGA rents are much lower at $400 per week for a four bedroom dwelling. The rent for two and three bedroom dwellings is highest in Kiama LGA, followed by Wollongong and Shellharbour LGAs. In general, Shoalhaven and Shellharbour LGAs are more affordable, while there are potential affordability concerns in the housing market in Kiama LGA. The dwelling vacancy rates in Shoalhaven (27.5%) and Kiama (18.9%) are much higher than in Wollongong (7.6%) and Shellharbour (6.1%); most likely due to a concentration of tourist accommodation. Although Shoalhaven and Kiama have otherwise very different markets, the impact of tourism accommodation in these LGAs could be an area for further work, determining the impact on required dwelling supply.

Trends and drivers

On the whole, a review of available literature and consultation with local real estate agents suggests that the Illawarra property market is performing strongly, with investment driving notable price growth, fast turnover of properties (of generally less than 30 days), and a low level of rental vacancies (of under 2%). Demand has been driven particularly by lower interest rates and the relative affordability and lifestyle choices of the Illawarra compared with Sydney. Local real estate agents suggested that inter-regional migration is occurring, with people increasingly moving to the Illawarra from Sydney, in addition to intra-regional migration of empty nesters moving from the outer suburbs towards the centre of Wollongong. This is also the case in Shoalhaven, where retirees are moving from the coast towards Nowra-Bomaderry to be closer to facilities and services. The strong demand for property both for rental and purchase has created a challenge for first home buyers and lower income residents. In particular, there is insufficient student accommodation, with Wollongong University reporting a shortage of between 500 and 1000 beds for students, despite its purchase of the former Ibis Wollongong for development of 150 rooms (which opened as Marketview at the start of the 2012 academic year) and the recent opening of a new on-campus residence – Kooloobong Village – for 360 students. There is a role for P&I in working with Wollongong Council and the university to identify suitable sites for development of further student accommodation. In particular, applications for boarding houses in areas close to the university have been contentious, and consultation with local residents may ease concerns and facilitate this form of development in future. Addressing the issue of a shortage of student housing is vital to supporting the university, to attracting students from outside the local area who contribute to the economy and are likely to attract additional tourism, and to reducing pressure on the private rental market. Although the Illawarra has traditionally been characterised by detached housing, there is a growing demand for apartments (particularly in North Wollongong and Wollongong CBD). Apartments are often more affordable than other housing types in the same area, and are generally located in the inner city with good amenity and access to services and employment. They are particularly attractive to younger generations, including students, and in some cases to empty nesters seeking to downsize. In order to provide housing choice, it is important that local councils consider the need for apartments and medium density dwellings in their planning. This is particularly the case in Wollongong, given that recent apartment developments in the centre have been at the higher end of the market and have not contributed to ensuring housing is available in a wide price range. The local residential markets vary considerably, with a large gap between the achievable sales prices in Wollongong, Kiama, Shellharbour and Shoalhaven. Kiama LGA is the most expensive, with limited growth in housing supply and tourist accommodation and second homes constraining the supply side, followed by Wollongong. Shellharbour and Shoalhaven have the lowest prices within the region. Agents noted that Shellharbour was attractive for first home buyers due to the regional relocation grant offered for settlement; however, buyers are now required to move at least 100km from their previous residence. At any rate, SGS believes this scheme was unlikely to be influencing the regional housing market to any significant degree. Shoalhaven LGA is also attracting demand from Navy officers and their families associated with the Navy Air Station, located in Nowra. Real estate agents noted that infrastructure costs for developers are a significant supply blockage, which suggests a greater role for infill development where possible, for which infrastructure has already been provided (although the capacity of existing service infrastructure to accommodate higher densities would require testing). Infill development could also assist in addressing demand for apartments as noted above. In addition, the ageing population is a key demographic trend and likely to impact significantly on the Illawarra housing market over the coming decades. Infill locations provide proximity to existing community, health and entertainment facilities and good transport connections, and therefore these are likely to be preferable to greenfield sites as people age. Local councils should be encouraged to consider the requirements for accessible housing that allows residents to age in place if they choose. In addition, there will be a need for an increased number of aged care facilities and affordable housing for key staff in the sector.


3 DWELLING DEMAND, SUPPLY AND CAPACITY

3.1 Dwelling demand, supply and capacity

Dwelling demand

SGS has previously completed research considering the drivers of population and housing growth and has found that the principal factor determining future dwelling demand is the profile of family types in the predicted population. As such, SGS has constructed a housing demand model, which uses the propensities for specific family types to live in certain housing forms in order to predict demand for separate dwellings, semi-detached dwellings

10, and

apartments. By examining these patterns at a broad spatial level the underlying housing preferences can be determined. This forms the basis of a forecast of underlying demand for housing and enables forecasts by dwelling type and number of bedrooms based on forecast population growth and demographic characteristics. This method does not account for changing housing preferences beyond the trends observed historically (for further detail on the method and assumptions refer to Appendix 1). Family type projections As shown in Table 5, between 2011 and 2031, the number of people living in one parent households is estimated to increase at the greatest rate, at an average of 1.68% per annum. Similarly, the number of people living in lone person households is also estimated to increase at a rate above other family types, at an average of 1.56% per annum. Couple families with children are expected to still comprise the largest family group in 2031, with 38% of the population in this category.

TABLE 5 . BASEL I NE FAMILY TYPE PROJECT I O NS – TOTAL ILLAWARR A REGIO N

Family composition

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2011-31 change

AAGR 2011-2031

2031 break-down

Persons living in

Couple family with children

170,498 169,423 169,268 171,125 171,996 1,499 0.04% 38%

Couple family with no children

84,927 92,571 99,295 104,029 108,167 23,240 1.22% 24%

One parent family 46,292 51,257 55,646 60,101 64,622 18,330 1.68% 14%

Other family 5,575 5,721 5,995 6,156 6,325 750 0.63% 1%

Group household 10,241 10,345 10,852 11,200 11,619 1,377 0.63% 3%

Lone person household

37,778 41,831 45,470 48,590 51,523 13,745 1.56% 11%

Other 29,938 31,651 33,224 34,650 36,047 6,109 0.93% 8%

Total persons 385,250 402,800 419,750 435,850 450,300 65,050 0.78% Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2014

The relative shares of each family type are shown at five year intervals in Figure 16.

10

Including townhouses and terraces


FI GURE 16. SH ARE O F PEOPLE I N E ACH FAMILY TYPE , BAS EL I NE P ROJECT IO NS – TOTAL ILLAWARR A REGIO N

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2014

The results by LGA are contained in Appendix 1. Dwelling type projections P&I has projected that an additional 39,050 dwellings will be required to meet the population projections in the following locations:

16,100 additional dwellings in Wollongong LGA

10,150 additional dwellings in Shoalhaven LGA

9,800 additional dwellings in Shellharbour LGA

3,000 additional dwellings in Kiama LGA. These dwellings will comprise (refer to Table 6):

21,731 additional separate dwellings (average annual growth rate: 0.97%)

14,006 additional semi-detached/ row/ terrace/ townhouse dwellings (average annual growth rate: 3.19%)

2,722 flat/ unit/ apartments (average annual growth rate: 0.97%).

TABLE 6 . BASEL I NE DWELL I NG TY PE PROJECT IONS – TOTAL ILL AWARRA REG ION

Dwelling type 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2011-31 change

AAGR 2011-2031

2031 break-down

Separate house 137,256 144,303 149,923 154,943 158,987 21,731 0.74% 74%

Semi-detached / row / terrace / townhouse

16,535 19,925 23,450 26,958 30,541 14,006 3.12% 14%

Flat / unit / apartment 19,100 19,672 20,562 21,207 21,822 2,722 0.67% 10%

Other 3,009 3,200 3,365 3,492 3,600 590 0.90% 2%

Total private dwellings 175,900 187,100 197,300 206,600 214,950 39,050 1.01% Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2014 Note: other includes ‘caravans, cabins, houseboats, improvised homes, tents, houses or flats attached to a shop, office etc.’ (ABS)

0%

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2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

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While the total growth is highest for separate dwellings, the rate of growth is forecast to be strongest for ‘semi-detached dwellings’ (which includes town houses) with an average annual growth rate of 3.12%. Given the historical preference for separate dwellings and large lots, it is expected that separate dwellings will continue to dominate the dwelling mix in the next 25 years (refer to Figure 17).

FI GURE 17. BASEL I NE DWELL I NG DE M AND P ROJECT IO NS (C U MU LATIVE TOTAL S) – TOTAL ILLAWARR A REGIO N


The results by LGA are contained in Appendix 1. Summary Projections issued by P&I show that the population of the Illawarra region is predicted to increase by 65,050 people between 2011 and 2031 to a total population of 450,300, with the highest population continuing to reside in Wollongong LGA, followed by Shoalhaven LGA. Overall dwelling demand will be the greatest for detached housing, while the highest growth rate over the period will be for semi-detached houses, which includes townhouses.

Dwelling capacity and gap analysis

The housing capacity model developed by SGS has been used to assess the additional dwelling potential within the Wollongong, Kiama and Shellharbour LGAs, under the current planning controls. Shoalhaven LGA has been excluded from this analysis. This capacity estimate is considered at a high level and does not take account of micro planning controls of the study area, such as development control plans (DCPs) and other localised controls. The resultant supply figures should therefore be considered as theoretical supply when compared with projected housing demand. Demand and theoretical supply outputs were compared at an LGA level in five yearly periods

11, to test for supply

shortfalls in the three LGAs studied.

11

Modelled supply is considered available from the base year (2011) and IUDP release area supply comes online in stages, as

identified in IUDP reports and calibrated using a draft infrastructure costing timeline supplied by DP&I, expressed here in five yearly periods.

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Separate house 137,256 144,303 149,923 154,943 158,987

Semi-detached / row / terrace / townhouse 16,535 19,925 23,450 26,958 30,541

Flat / unit / apartment 19,100 19,672 20,562 21,207 21,822

Other 3,009 3,200 3,365 3,492 3,600

0

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As this is a high level strategic assessment, it is appropriate that issues identified be further investigated through fine grain analysis; including development feasibility and specific development controls, to identify an accurate and robust framework for future policy guidelines and the likelihood of this theoretical capacity translating into actual dwelling construction. P&I has already commenced this work through the development of the Urban Feasibility Model to test possible housing scenarios with development feasibility as a key input. Additionally, SGS’s analysis uses historical housing data to show a ‘business as usual’ scenario. This is intended to be a starting point for discussion. To inform appropriate housing policy, ‘bottom up’ inputs such as site-specific development issues and feasibility as well as ‘top down’ policy/ strategy inputs should be considered. With these caveats, Table 7 details residual capacity, that is, the remaining capacity for each dwelling type by LGA after demand has been allocated for the period. These results reflect the gap analysis in a separate technical paper, with low values for semi-detached and some flats suggesting that these dwelling types should be looked at in further studies. Of note, there is projected to be insufficient supply of semi-detached dwellings across all LGAs from 2021 and 2036 (the insufficient supply in Shellharbour LGA is forecast to begin in 2016). A shortage of semi-detached dwellings could lead to price rises for this dwelling form, people choosing to buy a detached home or apartment (when their preference would be for a semi-detached home), or buyers expanding their search to other locations. It may be the case that a minimal change in dwelling preferences would achieve the required market adjustment.

TABLE 7 . GAP ANALYSI S; RESID U AL C APACITY PER 5 YEARS

LGA Dwelling type 2011 to 2016 2016 to 2021 2021 to 2026 2026 to 2031 2031 to 2036

Kiama Separate houses 3,288 2,607 1,947 1,380 909

Semi-detached dwellings 286 88 - - -

Flats 673 462 238 11 -

Total 4,247 3,157 2,184 1,390 909

Shellharbour Separate houses 7,692 4,160 6,035 4,292 2,817

Semi-detached dwellings 207 - - - -

Flats 2,754 3,040 2,990 2,970 2,908

Total 10,653 7,200 9,024 7,261 5,724

Wollongong Separate houses 36,728 37,422 35,532 33,916 32,702

Semi-detached dwellings 2,317 780 - - -

Flats 12,846 11,999 12,059 11,409 10,646

Total 51,891 50,201 47,592 45,326 43,349

Total 66,790 60,558 58,801 53,978 49,982 Source: ABS, 2013 and SGS Economics and Planning 2013

At a regional level, an assessment of the dwelling demand allocation on the existing urban form in the Wollongong, Kiama and Shellharbour LGAs suggests that the density uplift is not a substantial shift from the existing densities in these areas.

3.2 Affordable housing provision

Housing NSW has identified a moderate high to high need for affordable housing across the Illawarra region In order to determine priorities for the allocation of affordable housing funding, Housing NSW assessed affordable housing need by LGAs in NSW by:

calculating the proportion of very low, low and moderate income households in housing stress in each LGA

considering recent changes in rental prices. Housing NSW found that Wollongong LGA has a high need for affordable housing, while Shellharbour and Shoalhaven LGAs have a moderate high need, and Kiama LGA has a moderate need for affordable housing.


FI GURE 18. AFFORDABLE HO USING NE ED I N THE ILL AWARR A REG ION AND SURRO UND S, BY LG A

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2014, using data from Housing NSW


A moderate proportion of households in the Illawarra region are experiencing housing stress Housing stress is considered to exist when lower-income households are paying more than 30% of their income on rent or mortgage costs. Under the Affordable Rental Housing SEPP, a household is taken to be a very low, low or moderate income household if the household ‘has a gross income that is less than 120% of the median household income for the time being for the Sydney Statistical Division (according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics)’ In line with the Housing NSW assessment that LGAs in the Illawarra region have a moderate to high need for affordable housing, 2011 ABS data show that in this area:

27% of all households are currently experiencing housing stress (34,447 households)

32% of very low, low and moderate income households are currently experiencing housing stress. This equates to 26,886 households, which we have assumed to comprise the demand for affordable housing in the Illawarra region.

There is a larger proportion of very low, low and moderate income households in housing stress in Wollongong LGA (36%) compared to Kiama LGA (32%), Shoalhaven LGA (27%) and Shellharbour LGA (23%).

Further detail on this data is provided in Appendix 4. There is an insufficient supply of affordable housing to cater for the number of households currently in housing stress Housing NSW notes that ‘people in NSW earning very low to moderate incomes

12 are increasingly unable to access

housing that is affordable’, with ‘demand for affordable housing far exceed[ing] supply’.13

On-the-market rental data sourced from RP Data was analysed in order to determine the availability of affordable rental housing in the Illawarra region. $444 was considered the benchmark for moderate income earners, $296 for low income earners and $185 for very low income earners (this is 30% of the maximum income). Figure 19 illustrates the on the market rental prices for dwellings within the Illawarra region and the maximum rent levels for very low to moderate income earners.

4,422 dwellings14

(80%) were below $444 per week and therefore accessible to moderate income earners.

1,629 dwellings (29%) were below $296 per week and therefore accessible to low income earners.

234 dwellings (4%) were below $185 per week and therefore accessible to very low income earners.

12

The Centre for Affordable Housing at Housing NSW (2013) notes that very low income workers tend to be in a range of lower

paid occupations (particularly in areas such as retail or manufacturing), as well as people earning the minimum wage or who are on an aged or disability pension or other government benefit. Low income workers are those with jobs as child care workers, secretaries or cleaners, for example. Moderate income workers are those in occupations such as teaching, policing or nursing, particularly if they are in earlier stages of their careers.

13 ‘Why do we need to be concerned about housing affordability?’, Housing NSW, viewed 1 May 2013 at

<www.housing.nsw.gov.au/Centre+For+Affordable+Housing/About+Affordable+Housing/Why+do+we+need+to+be+concerned+about+housing+affordability.htm>

14 Of which there were 405 one bedroom dwellings, 1,678 two bedroom dwellings, 1,191 three bedroom dwellings, 158 four

bedroom and 14 five bedroom dwellings.


FI GURE 19. ON THE MAR KET RE NTAL P RICES – I LLAWARR A REGIO N

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2014 using RP Data

At a broad level, this shows a total supply of affordable housing of 4,422 dwellings, which will meet only 16% of the demand in the Illawarra region

15.

Further analysis by LGA is provided in Appendix 3.

3.3 Social housing requirements

Current supply

The 2007 Illawarra Regional Strategy highlighted that: ‘There are large concentrations of public housing in the Region, such as at Berkeley, Warilla and Bellambi, indicating a significant investment by the Department of Housing. A large proportion of this housing is ageing and costly to maintain and does not cater for the needs of their client base. Councils will be encouraged to recognise the development potential of the Department of Housing properties when undertaking local strategic planning’ (Department of Planning, 2007).

One way of alleviating the pressure experienced by households in high levels of housing stress is the provision of social housing. As at August 2013, Land and Housing Corporation advised that there were 9,731 social housing properties in the Wollongong, Shellharbour and Kiama LGAs, the majority of which were cottages (Table 8).

TABLE 8 . SOCI AL HO U SI NG PROPE RT IES BY DWELL ING TY PE FO R WOLLONGO NG , SHELLHAR BOUR AND KI A M A LG AS

Aboriginal Housing Office

Public Housing Community Housing

Total

Cottage 157 3,873 267 4,297

Townhouse 7 1,214 38 1,259

Unit 3 2,776 528 3,307

Villa 7 634 227 868

Total 174 8,497 1,060 9,731

Source: Land and Housing Corporation, 2013

15

Demand is estimated by the number of very low to moderate income households currently experiencing housing stress (26,886 households). This analysis does not account for particular dwelling size requirements.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

$- $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500 $550 $600 $650 $700 $750 $800 $850 $900 $950 $1,000

SHA

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In March 2014, Land and Housing Corporation advised that there are 1,603 dwellings in Shoalhaven LGA (refer to Table 9), of which majority are cottages (64%), consistent with the rest of the Illawarra.

TABLE 9 . SOCI AL HO U SI NG PROPE RT IES I N SHOALHAVE N LGA

Aboriginal Housing Office

Public Housing Community Housing

Total

Total 144 1,030 429 1,603

Source: Land and Housing Corporation, 2014

In total, there are 11,334 social housing properties in the Illawarra.

Issues associated with current supply

Housing NSW has suggested a number of general issues associated with planning for social housing in the Illawarra, including:

the application of appropriate zones to support residential densities within centres.

establishing floorspace ratios that enable the redevelopment of ageing and inappropriate stock to improve urban design, social mix and urban design outcomes.

facilitating urban consolidation, which is often restricted by requirements for large site areas

inconsistency of development control provisions. In its submission to the Wollongong LGA comprehensive LEP, Housing NSW highlighted that:

Maintaining the ability to realign and redevelop its social housing stock is a critical concern for the Department. Within Wollongong LGA, the Department will be seeking to increase the proportion of one and two bedroom homes and refurbish or convert older dwellings to reflect contemporary living requirements in high demand areas. It is important that the comprehensive LEP incorporates planning controls for social housing sites that are sufficient to enable redevelopment of ageing and inappropriate stock, particularly for well located sites. If development potential is sufficient, it is possible to renew housing, improve urban design and social mix and to achieve better community outcomes. Furthermore, development controls should support the provision of smaller accommodation in response to changing household needs amongst public housing clients and across the broader community (Housing NSW, 2012).

Development pipeline

A number of social housing developments have been proposed for the Illawarra under the Nation Building Economic Stimulus Project (NBESP). Since June 2012, 375 units have been completed: 272 dwellings in Wollongong LGA, 92 dwellings in Shellharbour LGA, and 11 dwellings in Kiama LGA. Aside from the NBESP, Housing NSW has two applications currently being assessed within the Illawarra: eight units at 35-37 Keerong Avenue in Russell Vale, and 12 seniors housing units at 31-35 Bramsen Street in Bellambi.

3.4 Aged care requirements

Common issues16

affecting aged care accommodation and providers in regional areas of NSW include the following:

Regional areas are seen as an attractive location for retirement living, which leads to the perception that service providers must do more to support the planning needs of local population ageing. Providers need to capture both the economic benefits that emanate from growth of the local retirement industry, as well as the local ageing population.

Prices may vary within different centres often relating to constrained rental and housing choice as a result of retirement living.

16

SGS was unsuccessful in its attempts to obtain qualitative opinions regarding the general state of market for aged care

accommodation in the Illawarra region. SGS made multiple attempts to contact IRT and Warrigal as major aged care providers in the Illawarra region


Retirement-led migration brings challenges for service provision. Older residents who move to regional areas often seek out large properties, which require significant ground maintenance and are poorly designed to accommodate frail age. Retirees often choose to ‘escape’ the city expecting improvements in health or wellbeing in the countryside. In some cases, the stresses of relocation and loss of existing social and support networks can result in a worsening of dementia symptoms.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that there is a strong preference to age in place. Access to residential aged care centres tends to be driven by acute needs – for example, medical diagnosis of an age-related illness or condition – and often after family care resources have been exhausted.

Ageing in place

Ageing in place, or the decision of older residents to continue living in their home after retirement, is by far the most common housing choice. Those ageing in place can access a range of Commonwealth and state funded services to support independent living, ranging from domestic care such as meal preparation, laundry and gardening, through to personal care and support including transport and temporary in-home respite care. Ageing in place raises numerous challenges, such as:

reduced supply of housing, through low occupancy of dwellings which present service difficulties for their occupants and community/ local government services (for example, ground maintenance and domestic support)

increased demand for a range of essential services, including but not limited to primary health care facilities and a range of allied health services

increased demand for public transport, including the delivery of transport services during off-peak periods and within more finite catchment areas (for example, 400 metres or less) than normally viable

increased demand for social contact and sociability, driving the use of community infrastructure including community centres, libraries, places of worship and other public and semi-public spaces.

Larger centres in the region provide a range of facilities that support active ageing in place, including access to primary and allied health services, social organisations and community organising infrastructure, retail facilities and transport services. There are challenges; however, in supporting ageing in place in areas outside centres, particularly the availability of funding and the provision of public transport services compounded with existing access constraints. ‘Granny flat’ type accommodation is an additional option for those choosing to age in place. This form of housing can allow older residents to maintain independence while living close to family in often smaller and more manageable homes. It has additional benefits for the community in that the levels of household occupancy can be raised, and the care from family located nearby may reduce the burden on community services.

Aged facilities: Independent Living Units

Independent living units (ILUs) are purpose built or configured complexes that support ageing in a low care residential setting. Residence in an ILU is limited to those aged over 55 years and these facilities typically provide a sheltered community or village environment, where individual units are supported by emergency alarm systems and an on-site caretaker or manager. ILU developments may also include provision for a space which can be utilised by a visiting allied health service provider, such as a nurse or physiotherapist. It is estimated that there are 34,700 independent living units in Australia, with 13,600 (approximately 40%) of these located in NSW

17.

Just over 5% of Australians over the aged over 65 years occupy villages (RVA 2011). This is considered low in comparison to other countries such as the United States, where 10% of people aged over 65 years occupy villages. Table 10 outlines the estimated supply of ILUs in the Illawarra. The supply in Wollongong is much greater than in the other LGAs within the Illawarra. There are a total of 994 units in the entire region.

17

Australian Aged Care Guide (October 2011). Accessed online, October 2011 at: <www.agedcareguide.com.au/residential.asp?stateid=2&lgaid=168>

http://www.agedcareguide.com.au/residential.asp?stateid=2&lgaid=168


TABLE 1 0. I NDEPENDE NT L I V ING U NIT S I N THE ILLAWAR R A

Supplier Suburb LGA Number of units

UnitingCare Mayflower Village Gerringong Kiama 100

UnitingCare Elanmora Shellharbour Shellharbour 24

Warringal Care Albion Park Rail Albion Park Shellharbour 64

Warrigal Care Warilla Warilla Shellharbour 40

ARV St Luke's Village Assited Living Dapto Wollongong 65

IRT Diment Towers Wollongong Wollongong 45

IRT Links Seaside Wollongong Wollongong 154

IRT Towradgi Park Towradgi Wollongong 66

IRT William Beach Gardens Kanahooka Wollongong 60

IRT Woonona Woonona Wollongong 25

Nareena Homes Figtree Wollongong 20

Presbyterian Aged Care Wollongong North Wollongong Wollongong 27

St Mary's Residential Aged Care Berkeley Wollongong 33

IRT Culburra Beach Culburra Beach Shoalhaven 36

IRT Greenwell Gardens Nowra Shoalhaven 44

IRT Sarah Claydon Milton Shoalhaven 36

IRT St Georges Basin St Georges Basin Shoalhaven 14

RFBI Basin View Masonic Village Basin View Shoalhaven 22

RFBI Berry Masonic Village Berry Shoalhaven 34

RSL LifeCare Jonathan Rogers GC House Nowra Shoalhaven 70

UnitingCare Shoalhaven Services Nowra Shoalhaven 35

Total Kiama 100

Total Shellharbour 128

Total Wollongong 495

Total Shoalhaven 291

Total Illawarra 994 Source: DPS Guide to Aged Care NSW and ACT, 2013, Uniting Care Ageing, 2014

Taking a rough assumption that the current service ratio of 0.9% remains constant (that is, 9 in every 1000 residents in the Illawarra region over 55 desires accommodation in an ILU, with the majority of older residents ageing in place), and no additional capacity is made available, an undersupply of 442 units by 2031 is expected (refer to Table 11).

TABLE 1 1. BASE CASE ILU DEM AND

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Population (55+) 115,600 130,950 144,700 156,250 167,000

Existing ILUs (2011 data) 994 994 994 994 994

Calculated propensity (held constant for all years) 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%

ILU requirement given current propensity 994 1,126 1,244 1,344 1,436

Predicted undersupply with current propensity - 132 250 350 442 Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2014

Demand for ILUs in the Illawarra region is expected to be a minimum of 1,053 new units by 2031. This estimate is based on the current propensity of 0.9% and does not take into account an increasingly ageing demographic, therefore is likely to be conservative. The main reasons associated with low provision or low demand for ILU’s are detailed below.

Price ILUs require outright purchase of a property, rather than payment of a bond or rent

on services. On top of higher establishment costs, residents also pay a Strata fee, with additional services sometimes provided at an at-cost basis. Furthermore, the price differential between a median house and ILU is lower in areas such as the Illawarra, thus reducing the incentive to ‘cash out’ of your existing home with a substantial amount of equity (cash) leftover once the ILU is purchased.

Investment portability An ILU cannot be on-sold as readily as mainstream housing as the prospective occupant must fulfil minimum age criteria (55+) and accept Strata laws that restrict


the use of the property for other purposes (for example, subletting).

Market conditions Relative cooling of the housing market since 2008 and public uncertainty in the property market inhibited the sale of a number of ILU dwellings, as prospective buyers were often required to on-sell the existing family home to access these dwellings (mortgage finance is difficult to secure for ILU type dwellings).

Perception There is limited public differentiation between ILU and other strata-type development, with mainstream strata type developments seen to offer a higher degree of market flexibility.

Aged facilities: residential aged care

Demand for residential aged care is split into two main categories of provision: residential low care, which provides a semi-autonomous nursing home or hostel style care environment, and residential high care, which caters to those with limited independent mobility or high personal care needs (including medical support needs). The Commonwealth Department of Health and Ageing (DoHA) controls the supply of subsidised aged care places through its role in setting the aged care planning ratio target. In accordance with this target, DoHA allocates and funds aged care places supplied by approved providers, for a set number of operational places for every 1000 Australians aged 70 years and over. The current planning ratio for aged care places, as defined by the Commonwealth Department of Health and Ageing, is 113 places per 1000 people aged 70 years. The target mix is distributed as follows:

44 low care places per 1000 people aged 70 years and over (4.4%)

44 high care places per 1000 people aged 70 years and over (4.4%)

25 community care places per 1000 people aged 70 years and over (2.5%), comprising 21 Community Aged Care Places and four Extended Aged Care at Home.

Recent reforms for aged care are outlined in DoHA’s Living Longer Living Better package. These reforms reduce the provision ratio for aged care from 88 places to 80 places per 1,000 residents aged over 70 years and proposes a ratio only for total aged care (rather than for high and low care). The following projections for demand and supply have been calculated on this basis with high and low care being grouped together. Supply of residential aged care in the Illawarra Residential aged care (low care) settings are nursing home establishments that provide lower levels of care support, catering for those who need some help with basic duties (for example, eating and dressing) but who can generally move about on their own. Support services such as cleaning, laundry and meals are provided, and some allied health services such as nursing may be delivered on site. Residential aged care (high care) settings are nursing home type establishments which cater to the needs of the frail aged (typically those over age 85) and older people with high or complex needs. High level care settings typically offer nursing and additional personal care services within the facility, and will be sufficiently staffed to administer nursing procedures, therapy services and medication to older residents. Table 12 details the supply of residential aged care in the Illawarra. There are almost 4,000 aged care places in the Illawarra region including both high and low care. The majority of aged care homes are located in Wollongong LGA with over 1,800 beds and Shoalhaven LGA with over 1,200 beds.


TABLE 1 2. R ES IDE NTI AL AG ED C AR E BE DS I N THE ILL AWA RRA

Name of Home Suburb LGA High Care Low Care Total beds

Blue Haven Aged Care Facility Kiama Kiama 52 30 82

UnitingCare Mayflower Village Gerringong Kiama 80 83 163

Ridgeview Aged Care Facility Albion Park Shellharbour 73 78 151

UnitingCare Elanmora Shellharbour Shellharbour 20 80 100

Warringal Care Albion Park Rail Albion Park Shellharbour 80 69 149

Warrigal Care Mt Warrigal Mount Warrigal Shellharbour

40 40

Warrigal Care Warilla Warilla Shellharbour 100

100

ARV St Luke's Village Assited Living Dapto Wollongong 45 44 89

Chesalon Care Woonona Woonona Wollongong 60

60

HammongCare RC Horsley Horsley Wollongong 30 60 90

Hillside at Figtree Figtree Wollongong

81 81

Illawarra Diggers Corrimal Wollongong

96 96

IRT Diment Towers Wollongong Wollongong

63 63

IRT Five Islands Port Kembla Wollongong

40 40

IRT Links Seaside Wollongong Wollongong 53 100 153

IRT Towradgi Park Towradgi Wollongong 74 42 116

IRT William Beach Gardens Kanahooka Wollongong 34 126 160

IRT Woonona Woonona Wollongong 74 127 201

Kennett Home Aged Care Facility Stanwell Park Wollongong

24 24

Marco Polo Unanderra Care Services Unanderra Wollongong 85 52 137

McCauley Lodge Thirroul Wollongong

36 36

Multicultural Village Illawarra Warrawong Wollongong

74 74

Presbyterian Aged Care Wollongong North Wollongong Wollongong 32

32

St Mary's Residential Aged Care Berkeley Wollongong

33 33

UnitingCare Farmborough AC Centre Unanderra Wollongong 58 50 108

Villa Maria Centre Unanderra Unanderra Wollongong 40 56 96

Warrigal Care Coniston Coniston Wollongong 60

60

Wollongong Nursing Home Figtree Wollongong 120

120

Bupa Berry Berry Shoalhaven 91 15 106

Chesalon Care Nowra Nowra Shoalhaven 64 64

Clelland Lodge North Nowra Shoalhaven 43 80 123

Coastal Waters Aged Care Worrowing Heights Shoalhaven 86 40 126

Inasmuch Community Hostel Sussex Inlet Shoalhaven 70 70

IRT Culburra Beach Culburra Beach Shoalhaven 40 40 80

IRT Greenwell Gardens Nowra Shoalhaven 79 79

IRT Sarah Claydon Milton Shoalhaven 48 93 141

IRT St Georges Basin St Georges Basin Shoalhaven 37 52 89

Principal Shoalhaven Bomaderry Shoalhaven 76 76

RFBI Basin View Masonic Village Basin View Shoalhaven 20 30 50

RFBI Berry Masonic Village Berry Shoalhaven 20 20 40

Rose Mumble Aboriginal Village North Nowra Shoalhaven 21 21

RSL LifeCare Jonathan Rogers GC House Nowra Shoalhaven 30 38 68

UnitingCare Shoalhaven Services Nowra Shoalhaven 47 107 154

Total Kiama 132 113 245

Total Shellharbour 200 189 389

Total Wollongong 765 1,104 1,869

Total Shoalhaven 602 685 1,287

Total Illawarra 1,772 2,169 3,941

Source: DPS Guide to Aged Care NSW and ACT, 2013


Gap analysis The Australian government’s target ratio of 80 residential aged care places per 1,000 residents aged over 70 years (as discussed above) can be used to assess the existing supply and determine expected demand for aged care places into the future (refer to Table 13). Currently, the supply of aged care in the Illawarra region meets the required ratio of 80 places per 1,000 people aged 70 years and over. However, if there is no increase in supply in coming years, by 2016 there will be a gap of 495 places, increasing steadily to 2,879 places in 2031.

TABLE 1 3. P ROJECTED DEM AND FOR AGED CARE PL AC ES IN THE ILL AWARR A REG I ON

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Population aged 70 years and over 48,350 55,450 64,700 74,150 85,250

Demand (80 places per 1,000 people aged 70+) 3,868 4,436 5,176 5,932 6,820

Existing supply 3,941 3,941 3,941 3,941 3,941

Demand - supply gap 73 -495 -1,235 -1,991 -2,879 Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2014 Note: Analysis assumes that supply did not change between 2011 and 2013 in the absence of historical data


3.5 Summary


Demand analysis P&I has issued population projections that forecast an increase in the population of the Illawarra region, of 65,050 people between 2011 and 2031 to a total population of 450,300, with the majority of the population continuing to reside in either Wollongong LGA or Shoalhaven LGA. Based on these forecasts, P&I has projected that an additional 39,050 dwellings will be required to meet the population projections: 16,100 additional dwellings in Wollongong LGA, 10,150 in Shoalhaven, 9,800 in Shellharbour LGA and 3,000 in Kiama LGA. Dwelling demand modelling was conducted using these projections. Dwelling demand is anticipated to continue to be the greatest for detached housing, while the highest growth rate over the period will be for semi-detached housing. There is expected to be demand for 21,731 additional separate dwellings (56% of the total increase), 14,006 additional semi-detached/ row/ terrace/ townhouse dwellings (36%) and 2,722 flat/unit/apartments (10%) in the Illawarra region by 2031. These results highlight the need for future development within the Illawarra to cater for the growing demand for semi-detached dwellings, particularly within Wollongong, Shoalhaven and Shellharbour LGAs. Gap analysis SGS conducted a high level strategic assessment of the capacity for additional dwellings in the Wollongong, Kiama and Shellharbour LGAs, under the current planning controls. Shoalhaven LGA has been excluded from this analysis.. Combined with the demand analysis above, this showed that at face value there is sufficient land to accommodate demand for single residential dwellings and flats across all three LGAs to 2031, if a ‘business as usual’ scenario for development is assumed (that is, that the future development profile of an area matches existing profiles). To inform appropriate housing policy, ‘bottom up’ inputs such as site-specific development issues and feasibility as well as ‘top down’ policy/ strategy inputs should be considered. We understand that P&I will be completing further work to examine lot and precinct level opportunities, drawing on outputs from the Urban Feasibility Model (UFM), which considers development feasibility and constraints to assess likely future potential for new dwellings. Historical development is a driver of housing allocation in this model. In this sense it should be considered a ‘base case’. However, given the complexity of the residential market in the region, the importance of certainty for the development industry, and the need for government to efficiently plan for future infrastructure and facilities, it is vital for P&I to identify renewal areas and policy initiatives that will help drive optimal development patterns in future. The analysis found that there is projected to be insufficient supply of semi-detached dwellings across the three LGAs studied from 2021 onwards (the supply shortage in Shellharbour LGA is forecast to begin in 2016). A shortage of semi-detached dwellings could lead to price rises for this dwelling form, buyer substitution of product types (where residents would prefer to buy a semi-detached home but will settle for a detached home if there is insufficient supply), or buyer substitution of locations (for example, people wishing to buy a semi-detached home in one area may choose to locate in another area where semi-detached housing is more readily available). It may be the case that a minimal change in dwelling preferences would achieve the required market adjustment. In addition, between 2031 and 2036, Kiama LGA’s predicted lack of zoned available land for apartments theoretically means that Wollongong LGA would have to absorb additional demand for apartments from Kiama. At a regional level, the density uplift associated with the allocation of dwelling demand is not expected to be a substantial shift from the existing densities in the Wollongong, Kiama and Shellharbour LGAs.

Affordable housing

Housing NSW has identified a moderate high to high need for affordable housing across the Illawarra region. Based on analysis of income and rental data, just over a quarter of all households in the Illawarra region are experiencing housing stress, and 32% of households on moderate, low and very low incomes. Housing stress is higher in Wollongong LGA compared to Kiama, Shoalhaven and Shellharbour LGAs.


Demand for affordable housing is far outstripping supply. At a broad level, there is currently supply of around 4,400 affordable dwellings, which will meet only 16% of the demand for such housing from moderate, low and very low income households assumed to make up the market in the region. Councils should be encouraged to review planning controls to facilitate the delivery of a diverse range of housing types. This is a key step in improving affordability as households are more likely to be able to rent or purchase housing that suits their circumstances. In particular, existing planning instruments should be reviewed to ensure that there are no significant barriers to the development of medium density housing (such as maximum lot sizes for subdivision, increased densities in centres and public transport infrastructure, minimum dwelling sizes, excessive car parking requirements, and the permissibility of shop-top housing development). Potential measures to encourage medium density and affordable housing in centres and mixed use developments could be investigated by P&I, such as precinct planning. This could be through consultation with the development industry to gain insight into the ability, desirability, returns and practical incentives required to make these types of development feasible.

Social housing

As at March 2014, Land and Housing Corporation advised that there were 11,334 social housing properties in the Illawarra, the majority of which were cottages. As is the case across the state, a greater provision of social housing is required in the Illawarra to address significant undersupply; particularly given the inability of the private rental market to fill the gap for lower income households. There isn’t much of a role for P&I in facilitating this, beyond ensuring that there are no unnecessarily restrictive controls on development in areas with social housing concentrations, ensuring development control provisions are consistent, and encouraging medium density housing in centres. SGS does not believe that it is in the public interest for areas with social housing developments to be granted floorspace ratios out of line with those in the surrounding locations, irrespective of whether by doing so, the redevelopment of ageing and inappropriate social housing stock would be enabled.

Aged care

An ageing population and retirement-led migration are likely to bring challenges for the Illawarra. Ageing in place, where residents continue living in their homes after retirement, is a strong preference for many and should be facilitated within the planning process, for example by ensuring that a proportion of new development is adaptable and accessible. Encouraging development of secondary suite (‘granny flat’) accommodation in new and existing developments may also support a higher degree of ageing in place. This has the potential to reduce the case load for community service by supporting enhanced home care from family and friends, and reduce the overall demand for new housing as occupancy levels are optimised. Councils should be encouraged to promote this form of development where possible. In terms of the supply of accommodation that supports ageing, there is a total of 994 independent living units (ILUs) in the Illawarra region, with a minimum expected demand of 1,436 new units by 2031. Assuming that the current service ratio remains constant and no additional capacity is made available, an undersupply of 442 units by 2031 is conservatively expected. In addition, there are almost 4,000 total beds in residential aged care facilities in the Illawarra, 48% of which are in Wollongong. Currently, the supply of aged care in the Illawarra region meets the required ratio of 80 places per 1,000 people aged 70 years and over. However, if there is no increase in supply in coming years, by 2016 there will be a gap of 495 places in residential aged care facilities, increasing steadily to 2,879 places in 2031. To address these predicted shortages in aged care, P&I should continue engaging with providers in the sector. This may improve communication and provide the right signals for developers and operators of aged care to consider the Illawarra as a feasible location for services. It is also vital to encourage development of flexible housing that can be adapted to suit its occupants’ needs.


APPENDIX 1: HOUSING DEMAND OUTPUTS BY LGA

Method and assumptions

The underlying demand for particular dwelling types for the Illawarra region has been estimated using a ‘propensity-based model’. The propensity to belong to a particular household is expected to change over time with decreasing fertility rates and lifestyle choices. It is difficult to estimate the extent to which family types or the propensity of particular family types to live in particular dwelling types will change in future. Typically, the forecast result will ascribe the decreasing prevalence of traditional family units (composed of a mother, father and two children). The method used to encapsulate these forecast changes in the relationship between population and dwellings is described in Figure 20.

FI GURE 20. SU MM ARY O F SGS HOU SI NG MO DEL


Each step of the process is briefly described below:

1. Population projections by age group are sourced from P&I. These projections are disaggregated into family/ relationship type, where the future distribution between and family/ relationship type is linearly extrapolated based on the trends in 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2011 ABS Census data.

Projected family types (by number of people) are converted to number of households based on the trends observed in household sizes of different family and household types in 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2011 ABS Census data. As such, it is assumed that recent trends in household size continue into the future and that there is no current latent demand for particular housing types.


2. Projected family types are then disaggregated into dwelling types. Again, future distribution is linearly extrapolated based on the trends in 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2011 ABS census data. In other words, it is assumed that the historic trends for different family types to choose particular dwellings continues into the future, and that these choices in the past have not been affected by supply constraints (that there has been a match between demand for particular dwelling types and supply of these dwelling types).

The projected dwelling type propensities were then applied to the P&I dwelling forecasts to provide a breakdown of the dwelling forecasts by dwelling type.

Family type projections

In Wollongong LGA, between 2011 and 2031, the number of people living in one parent households is estimated to increase at the greatest rate, at an average of 1.6% per annum (refer to Table 14). The number of people living in lone person households is also estimated to increase at a rate above other family types, at an average of 1.43% per annum.

TABLE 1 4. BASEL I NE FAMILY TYPE PROJECT I O NS – WOLLONGONG

Family composition 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2011-31 change

AAGR 2011-31

2031 break-down

Persons living in


91,840 90,909 90,856 91,909 92,334 494 0.03% 40%


39,531 43,128 45,792 47,550 49,166 9,634 1.10% 21%


Other family 3,356 3,461 3,637 3,733 3,817 462 0.65% 2%

Group household 7,520 7,739 8,233 8,572 8,949 1,429 0.87% 4%

Lone person household 19,580 21,647 23,340 24,725 26,015 6,434 1.43% 11%

Other 16,067 16,923 17,669 18,354 19,010 2,942 0.84% 8%




FI GURE 21. SH ARE O F PEOPLE I N EACH FA MILY TYPE , BASEL I NE P ROJECT IO NS – WOLLONGO NG


In Shoalhaven LGA, between 2011 and 2031, the number of people living in one parent households is estimated to increase at the greatest rate, at an average of 1.33% per annum (refer to Table 14). The number of people living in lone person households is also estimated to increase at a rate above other family types, at an average of 1.18% per annum.

TABLE 1 5. BASEL I NE FAMILY TYPE PROJECT I O NS - SH OALH AVEN


AAGR 2011-31

2031 break-down

Persons living in


34,910 34,410 33,565 33,186 32,902 -2,008 -0.30% 30%


27,218 28,878 30,993 32,518 33,499 6,281 1.04% 31%


Other family 1,048 1,070 1,060 1,025 995 -53 -0.26% 1%

Group household 1,648 1,616 1,595 1,567 1,558 -90 -0.28% 1%

Lone person household 11,586 12,423 13,312 14,050 14,646 3,060 1.18% 14%

Other 8,989 9,411 9,820 10,173 10,496 1,507 0.78% 10%



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2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Other


Group household

Other family

One parent family




FI GURE 22. SHARE OF PEO PLE IN EACH FA M ILY TYPE , BASEL I NE PR OJECT IONS – SHOALHAVE N


In Shellharbour LGA, between 2011 and 2031, the number of people living in lone person households is estimated to increase at the greatest rate, at an average of 2.72% per annum (refer to Table 16). The number of people living in one parent family households is also estimated to increase at a rate above other family types, at an average of 2.25% per annum. The number of couple families with children is expected to grow slowly, but still make up the largest family type in 2031.

TABLE 1 6. BASEL I NE FAMILY TYPE PROJECT IO NS – SHELLHAR BO UR


AAGR 2011-31

2031 break-down

Persons living in


33,828 34,084 34,669 35,574 36,105 2,277 0.33% 43%


12,889 14,667 16,132 17,206 18,356 5,467 1.78% 22%

One parent family 9,403 10,616 11,956 13,332 14,665 5,262 2.25% 17% Other family 979 1,011 1,113 1,206 1,305 326 1.45% 2% Group household 826 764 788 824 868 42 0.25% 1% Lone person household 4,888 5,800 6,674 7,502 8,355 3,467 2.72% 10% Other 3,387 3,708 4,018 4,307 4,596 1,210 1.54% 5% Total persons 66,200 70,650 75,350 79,950 84,250 18,050 1.21% Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2014


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2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Other


Group household

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FI GURE 23. SH ARE O F PEOPLE I N E ACH FAMILY TYPE , BAS EL I NE P ROJECT IO NS – SHELLHAR BOUR


In Kiama LGA, between 2011 and 2031, the number of people living in lone person households is estimated to increase at the greatest rate, at an average of 1.89% per annum (refer to Table 17). The number of people living in one parent households is also estimated to increase at a rate above other family types, at an average of 1.76% per annum, although this group is expected to make up just a tenth of the population in 2031.

TABLE 1 7. BASEL I NE FAMILY TYPE PROJECT IO NS – K IAMA


AAGR 2011-31

2031 break-down

Persons living in


9,919 10,020 10,178 10,456 10,655 736 0.36% 42%


5,289 5,898 6,378 6,755 7,147 1,859 1.52% 28%

One parent family 1,934 2,106 2,311 2,530 2,744 810 1.76% 11%

Other family 193 179 185 193 209 15 0.39% 1%

Group household 247 227 237 237 244 -4 -0.08% 1%

Lone person household 1,724 1,961 2,144 2,313 2,507 783 1.89% 10%

Other 1,494 1,610 1,718 1,817 1,945 451 1.33% 8%



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2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Other


Group household

Other family

One parent family




FI GURE 24. SH ARE O F PEOPLE I N E ACH FAMILY TYPE , BAS EL I NE P ROJECT IO NS – K I AM A


Dwelling type projections

P&I has estimated demand for 16,100 dwellings between 2011 and 2031 (refer to Table 18), comprising:

5,913 additional separate dwellings (average annual growth rate: 0.6%).

7,610 additional semi-detached/ row/ terrace/ townhouse dwellings (average annual growth rate: 3%).

2,403 flat/ unit/ apartments (average annual growth rate: 0.85%).

TABLE 1 8. BASEL I NE DWELL I NG TY PE PROJECT IONS – WOLLONG ONG


AAGR 2011-31

2031 break-down

Separate house 60,006 61,982 63,514 64,888 65,919 5,913 0.47% 65%


9,861 11,812 13,723 15,591 17,471 7,610 2.90% 17%

Flat / unit / apartment 14,440 14,998 15,758 16,333 16,843 2,403 0.77% 17%

Other 1,093 1,158 1,205 1,238 1,267 174 0.74% 1%


As illustrated in Figure 25, separate houses with remain the most popular dwelling type, however the number of semi-detached dwellings will overtake the number of flats in Wollongong LGA between 2011 and 2031.

0%

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2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Other


Group household

Other family

One parent family




FI GURE 25. BASEL I NE DWELL I NG DE M AND P ROJECT IO NS (C U MU LATIVE TOTAL S) - WOLLONGONG


In Shoalhaven, P&I has estimated demand for 10,150 dwellings between 2011 and 2031 (refer to Table 20), comprising:


2,960 additional semi-detached/ row/ terrace/ townhouse dwellings (average annual growth rate: 3.75%).

- 266 flat/ unit/ apartments (average annual growth rate: -0.58%).

TABLE 1 9. BASEL I NE DWELL I NG TY PE PROJECT IONS – SHOALH AVEN


AAGR 2011-31

2031 break-down

Separate house 48,157 50,697 52,599 54,186 55,417 7,260 0.70% 85%


2,908 3,552 4,324 5,097 5,868 2,960 3.57% 9%

Flat / unit / apartment 2,416 2,318 2,287 2,233 2,151 -266 -0.58% 3%

Other 1,319 1,383 1,441 1,484 1,515 195 0.69% 2%

Total private dwellings 54,800 57,950 60,650 63,000 64,950 10,150 0.85%

Figure 27 illustrates that demand for separate houses will remain the dwelling type with the greatest demand, followed by semi-detached dwellings.

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Separate house 60,006 61,982 63,514 64,888 65,919



Other 1,093 1,158 1,205 1,238 1,267

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FI GURE 26. BASEL I NE DWELL I NG DE M AND P ROJECT IO NS (C U MU LATIVE TOTAL S) – SHOALHAVE N


In Shellharbour, P&I has estimated demand for 9,800 dwellings between 2011 and 2031 (refer to Table 20), comprising:


2,838 additional semi-detached/ row/ terrace/ townhouse dwellings (average annual growth rate: 3.75%).

- 179 flat/ unit/ apartments (average annual growth rate: -0.7%).

TABLE 2 0. BASEL I NE DWELL I NG TY PE PROJECT IONS – SHELLH AR BOUR


AAGR 2011-2031

2031 break-down

Separate house 21,117 23,145 24,911 26,603 28,075 6,958 1.43% 79%


2,887 3,607 4,295 5,001 5,725 2,838 3.48% 16%

Flat / unit / apartment 1,366 1,214 1,210 1,171 1,187 -179 -0.70% 3%

Other 430 484 533 574 613 183 1.79% 2%


Figure 27 illustrates that demand for separate houses will remain the dwelling type with the greatest demand.

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Separate house 48,157 50,697 52,599 54,186 55,417



Other 1,319 1,383 1,441 1,484 1,515

0

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20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Dw

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Dem

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FI GURE 27. BASEL I NE DWELL I NG DE M AND P ROJECT IO NS (C U MU LATIVE TOTAL S) – SHELLHAR BOUR


In Kiama, P&I has estimated demand for 3,000 dwellings between 2011 and 2031 (refer to Table 21), comprising:


598 additional semi-detached/ row/ terrace/ townhouse dwellings (average annual growth rate: 2.63%).

764 flat/ unit/ apartments (average annual growth rate: 3.18%).

TABLE 2 1. BASEL I NE DWELL I NG TY PE PROJECT IONS – K I AM A


AAGR 2011-31

2031 break-down

Separate house 7,976 8,479 8,898 9,267 9,576 1,600 0.92% 74%


879 953 1109 1269 1478 598 2.63% 11%

Flat / unit / apartment 878 1143 1307 1469 1641 764 3.18% 13%

Other 167 176 186 195 205 38 1.03% 2%


Figure 28 illustrates that, as with the other LGAs, Kiama LGA will also maintain high dwelling demand for separate houses with increase demand for semi-detached and apartment dwellings.

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Separate house 21,117 23,145 24,911 26,603 28,075



Other 430 484 533 574 613

0

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FI GURE 28. BASEL I NE DWELL I NG DE M AND P ROJECT IO NS (C UMU LAT IVE TOTAL S) - K IAM A


2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Separate house 7,976 8,479 8,898 9,267 9,576

Semi-detached / row / terrace / townhouse 879 953 1109 1269 1478

Flat / unit / apartment 878 1143 1307 1469 1641

Other 167 176 186 195 205

0

2,000

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6,000

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wel

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APPENDIX 2: AFFORDABLE HOUSING CALCULATIONS

Income levels used for data analysis are shown in Table 19 below.

TABLE 2 2. MODER ATE TO VER Y LOW I NCO ME LEVELS

Median income Moderate income (120%)

Low income (80%) Very low income (50%)

Sydney SD $1,444 $1,733 $1,155 $722

Rest of NSW $1,233 $1,480 $986 $617 Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2014, median income level sourced from Housing NSW, 2013

Table 20 shows the level of housing stress

18 in the Illawarra region of NSW.

TABLE 2 3. HOUSING STR ESS I N TH E IL LAWARR A REGIO N

Wollongong Shellharbour Kiama Shoalhaven Illawarra region

Total number of households 67,569 6,969 21,377 33,968 129,883

Number of households in housing stress 19,412 1,369 5,475 8,191 34,447

Proportion of households in housing stress 29% 20% 26% 24% 27%

Number of very low, low and moderate income households

40,785 3,960 12,923 25,714 83,382

Number of very low, low and moderate income households in housing stress

14,824 927 4,199 6,936 26,886

Proportion of very low, low and moderate income households in housing stress

36% 23% 32% 27% 32%

Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2014 using ABS Census of Population and Housing, 2011

The maximum rent thresholds for a household to avoid housing stress, assuming they are earning the maximum household incomes for each level, are shown in Table 21.

TABLE 2 4. MAX IM UM RE NT LEVEL S BY INCOME LEVEL

30% of maximum moderate income

30% of maximum low income

30% of maximum very low income

Sydney SD $520 $347 $217

Rest of NSW $444 $296 $185 Source: SGS Economics and Planning, 2014, median income level sourced from Housing NSW, 2013

18

Note:

Housing stress was determined to exist where the weekly household rent was greater than or equal to 30% of that household’s income.

Households which reported no or nil income were excluded.

Households with partial income stated, all incomes not stated or not applicable were excluded.


APPENDIX 3: AFFORDABLE HOUSING SUPPLY BY LGA

Figure 29 illustrates the on the market rental prices for dwellings within Wollongong LGA and the maximum rent levels for very low to moderate income earners.

2,597 dwellings19

(79%) were below $444 per week and therefore accessible to moderate income earners

897 dwellings (27%) were below $296 per week and therefore accessible to low income earners


FI GURE 29. ON THE MAR KET RE NTAL P RICES - WOLLO NGO NG


Figure 30 illustrates the on the market rental prices for dwellings within Shellharbour LGA and the maximum rent levels for very low to moderate income earners.

627 dwellings20




19

Of which there were 375 one bedroom dwellings, 1,392 two bedroom dwellings, 733 three bedroom dwellings, 88 four bedroom and 8 five bedroom dwellings.

20 Of which there were 16 one bedroom dwellings, 187 two bedroom dwellings, 366 three bedroom dwellings, 53 four bedroom

and 5 five bedroom dwellings.

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are

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Rent per week


FI GURE 30. ON THE MAR KET RE NTA L P RICES – SHELLHARBO UR LG A


Figure 31 illustrates the on the market rental prices for dwellings within Kiama LGA and the maximum rent levels for very low to moderate income earners.

223 dwellings21




FI GURE 31. ON THE MAR KET RE NTAL P RICES – K IAMA LG A


21

Of which there were 14 one bedroom dwellings, 99 two bedroom dwellings, 92 three bedroom dwellings, 17 four bedroom dwellings and 1 five bedroom dwelling.

0%

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Rent per week


Figure 31 illustrates the on the market rental prices for dwellings within Shoalhaven LGA and the maximum rent levels for very low to moderate income earners.

975 dwellings22




FI GURE 32. ON THE MAR KET RE NTAL P RICES – SHOALHAVE N LGA


22

Of which there were 55 one bedroom dwellings, 275 two bedroom dwellings, 461 three bedroom dwellings, 167 four bedroom dwellings and 15 five bedroom dwelling.

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$- $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500 $550 $600 $650 $700 $750 $800 $850 $900 $950 $1,000

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Contact us CANBERRA

Level 1, 55 Woolley Street Dickson ACT 2602

+61 2 6262 7603 [email protected]

HOBART

Unit 2, 5 King Street Bellerive TAS 7018

+61 (0)439 941 934 [email protected]

MELBOURNE

Level 5, 171 La Trobe Street Melbourne VIC 3000


SYDNEY

Suite 209, 50 Holt Street Surry Hills NSW 2010


Review of Illawarra housing market

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