Belmont Housing Analysis:Belmont Housing Analysis:Presentation 1:Presentation 1:

Housing Market TrendsHousing Market Trends

March 2007March 2007Russ ThibeaultRuss Thibeault

Applied Economic ResearchApplied Economic Research

Study Referenced in Town Master Study Referenced in Town Master PlanPlan

Goal:Goal:To provide guiding principles and strategies To provide guiding principles and strategies for managing present and future housing for managing present and future housing needs. Create a range of housing needs. Create a range of housing opportunities and choices.opportunities and choices.

Gather information from state and federal statistics Gather information from state and federal statistics on housing needs in Belmont, pay of r a Housing on housing needs in Belmont, pay of r a Housing Study, if needed.Study, if needed.

Source: Belmont Master Plan (2002) page 9.7Source: Belmont Master Plan (2002) page 9.7

Why is This ImportantWhy is This ImportantHousing is townHousing is town’’s largest source of property tax s largest source of property tax revenuerevenueHousing generates demand for the majority of Housing generates demand for the majority of town servicestown servicesHousing is the largest investment of most Housing is the largest investment of most householdshouseholdsHousing consumes the largest portion of Housing consumes the largest portion of developed landdeveloped landHousing affordability affects the town and Housing affordability affects the town and regional economy and labor forceregional economy and labor forceRange of housing available affects townRange of housing available affects town’’s s economic compositioneconomic compositionHOUSING IS WHERE WE LIVE!HOUSING IS WHERE WE LIVE!

Study OutlineStudy Outline

Task 1: Housing Market TrendsTask 1: Housing Market TrendsTask 2: Housing AffordabilityTask 2: Housing AffordabilityTask 3: Projected Housing DemandTask 3: Projected Housing DemandTask 4: Policy ImplicationsTask 4: Policy Implications

Regional Population Has Been Regional Population Has Been Growing, Now at 113,000Growing, Now at 113,000

Lakes Region Population

-20,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000120,000

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2005

Source: Lakes Region Planning Commission

TownTown’’s Population Has Increased s Population Has Increased Sharply, Nearly Tripling Since 1970Sharply, Nearly Tripling Since 1970

Belmont Population

2,493

4,026

5,796

6,7167,206

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2005

Source: US Census and NH OEP

Rising Share of CountyRising Share of County’’s Population s Population Through 1990, Stable Share Since ThenThrough 1990, Stable Share Since Then

Belmont Share of County's Population

7.7%

9.4%

11.8% 11.9% 11.9%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

1970 1980 1990 2000 2005

Jobs Growing Generally Faster Than HousingJobs Growing Generally Faster Than Housing

Employment vs. Housing UnitsYear Over Year Percent Change

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

1993

-94

1994

-95

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-2000

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

Total Housing Units Total Private Emp

Some Recent ParametersSome Recent Parameters

Belmont added more people than any other Belmont added more people than any other Lakes Region community in the 1980s; was sixth Lakes Region community in the 1980s; was sixth fastest growing in the 1990sfastest growing in the 1990sBelmont attracts young familiesBelmont attracts young families——had the sixth had the sixth lowest median age in the Lakes Region in 2000.lowest median age in the Lakes Region in 2000.Belmont had the fourth highest population per Belmont had the fourth highest population per square mile in the region in 2000.square mile in the region in 2000.BelmontBelmont’’s proportion of seasonal housing (11%) s proportion of seasonal housing (11%) was among the fourth lowest in the region in was among the fourth lowest in the region in 2000.2000.

Averaging 40 New Housing Units Averaging 40 New Housing Units Per Year RecentlyPer Year Recently

New Housing Units Authorized By Permit In Belmont

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Sour

ce: N

H O

EP

Averaging Just Under 10% of Averaging Just Under 10% of County Total New Units Since 2000County Total New Units Since 2000

Belmont Share of Belknap County's New Authorized Units

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

229 New Lots Approved Since 2000229 New Lots Approved Since 2000

New Subdivision Lots Approved

13

30

3 8

61

1425

17

0

103

9

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

2000: 2000: BriarcrestBriarcrest, , StoningtonStonington2004: Interim Growth 2004: Interim Growth Ordinance (no Ordinance (no approvals)approvals)2005: Amily, BBE, 2005: Amily, BBE, Sun LakeSun Lake

Net of 214 Lots Created Since 2000 Net of 214 Lots Created Since 2000 (after removing expired subdivision (after removing expired subdivision

approvals)approvals)Inventory Change: Undeveloped Lots

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

(New Lots Approved Minus Merged Lots)

Housing Inventory Has Increased Housing Inventory Has Increased More in Past Five Years Than In More in Past Five Years Than In

Previous 10 YearsPrevious 10 Years

Belmont Housing Inventory

1990 2000 2005Change-

1990-2000Change

2000-2005Total Units 2,869 3,113 3,387 244 274 Occupied Units 2,146 2,641 3,000 495 359 Vacant Units 723 472 387 (251) (85)

Vacant Seasonal 525 351 300 (174) (51) Vacant Year-Round 198 121 87 (77) (34)

Belmont Inventory Increase Among Belmont Inventory Increase Among All Unit TypesAll Unit Types

Belmont Housing Inventory

1990 2000 2005 Number PercentTotal Units 2,869 3,113 3,387 244 9%Single Family Units 1,635 1,798 1,992 163 10%Multi-family Units 441 453 486 12 3%Mobile Home & Other 793 862 911 69 9%

Change

Town Has Disproportionate Town Has Disproportionate Inventory of Mobile HomesInventory of Mobile Homes

Comparative Housing Profile, 2005

59%

14%27%

73%

19%8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Single Family Units Multi-family Units Mobile Home & Other

Belmont

Belknap

90% of Mobile Homes Are 90% of Mobile Homes Are OccupiedOccupied

Mobile Home Occupancy, 2000, Belmont

Owner Occupied, 641

Renter Occupied, 80

Vacant, 133

Vacancy Rate Continues To DropVacancy Rate Continues To Drop

1990 2000 2005Year-Round Occupied+Vacant 2,344 2,762 3,087Year-Round Vacant 198 121 87Year-Round Vacancy Rate 8% 4% 3%

Median Home Price 10% Below Median Home Price 10% Below County, 35% Below State Figure: County, 35% Below State Figure: Impacts Ability to Pay for ServicesImpacts Ability to Pay for Services

Median Single Family Home Value, 2000

$96,300$109,600

$133,300

$-$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000

$100,000$120,000$140,000

Belmont Belknap New Hampshire

Belmont Home Prices Double Since Belmont Home Prices Double Since 2000 Because of Strong Demand 2000 Because of Strong Demand

and Lower Interest Ratesand Lower Interest Rates

Median Price of Belmont Primary Housing

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Source: NHHFA

Median Price Closely Tracks County Median Price Closely Tracks County FigureFigure

Median Purchase Price of Primary Housing Units

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,00019

93

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Source: NHHFA

Belmont Belknap County New Hampshire

BUT: Distribution Favors Lower BUT: Distribution Favors Lower Priced Housing in BelmontPriced Housing in Belmont

Comparative Price Distribution, 2006 (First Nine Months)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

$150,000or less

$160,000-200,000

210,000-250,000

$260,000-300,000

$310,000-350,000

$360,000-400,000

$400,000+

Source: NHHFA Purchase Price Index

% o

f Sol

d U

nits

BelmontBelknap

Housing Stock Is AgeingHousing Stock Is Ageing

Belmont Single Family Homes By Year Built

922

512

189 236

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Before 1980 1980-89 1990-99 Since 2000

Source: Assessment records

Num

ber o

f Uni

ts

Market Value By Year BuiltMarket Value By Year BuiltEqualized Market Value of Single Family Homes

in Belmont, Februrary 2007

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

Before 1980 1980-89 1990-99 Since 2000 Total

Year Built

Break Even Value

Median Rent is Higher Than County Median Rent is Higher Than County Average, Close to State AverageAverage, Close to State Average

Median Gross Rent, 2000

$636

$588

$646

$540

$560

$580

$600

$620

$640

$660

Belmont Belknap New Hampshire

Median Income is Higher Than Median Income is Higher Than County Average, Close to NH LevelCounty Average, Close to NH Level

Median Household Income, 1999

$47,717$43,605

$49,467

$-

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

Belmont Belknap New Hampshire

Middle Class Dominates Belmont Middle Class Dominates Belmont Income DistributionIncome Distribution

Comparative Household Income Distribution, 1999

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Under $

15,00

0$1

5,000

-24,99

9$2

5,000

-34,99

9$3

5,000

-49.99

9$5

0.000

-74,99

9$7

5,000

-99,99

9$1

00,00

0-149

,999

$150

,000+

Source: US Census

% o

f Hou

seho

lds Belmont

Belknap

Poverty Ratio is Lower Than County Poverty Ratio is Lower Than County and Stateand State

Percent of Population Below Poverty Level, 1999

5.7%6.5% 6.4%

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%

Belmont Belknap NewHampshire

Source: US Census

% B

elow

Pov

erty

Lev

el

Belmont Has Met Its Share of the Belmont Has Met Its Share of the Need for Subsidy UnitsNeed for Subsidy Units

Belmont Subsidized Housing Inventory

Belmont Housing for the Elderly 40Belmont Village Apartments 26Orchard Hill II 27Sandy Ledge Housing 11Realty Resources 24Total Belmont 40 88% of County Inventory 10% 20%

Most Workers Remain in Most Workers Remain in Region+ConcordRegion+Concord

Where Belmont Residents Worked, 2000

0200400600800

100012001400

Laconia

Belmont

Concord

Gilford

Tilton

Meredith

Frankli

nMan

ches

terAll O

ther

Factors Driving the Regional Factors Driving the Regional Housing MarketHousing Market

Housing is, in general, less expensive in the Lakes Housing is, in general, less expensive in the Lakes Region than points south of us.Region than points south of us.The regionThe region’’s job base has expanded and its economy is s job base has expanded and its economy is healthyhealthyThe Lakes Region is a favored retirement location, The Lakes Region is a favored retirement location, fostering infostering in--migration of older households.migration of older households.Housing has been a good investment over the long and Housing has been a good investment over the long and short terms.short terms.But, most of the regionBut, most of the region’’s job growth has been in lower s job growth has been in lower paying occupations, generating a housing affordability paying occupations, generating a housing affordability crunch.crunch.

ObservationsObservationsThe housing market has been exceptionally strong since 2000:The housing market has been exceptionally strong since 2000:

Home prices in Belmont and the region have doubledHome prices in Belmont and the region have doubledThe pace of new home construction in Belmont has doubledThe pace of new home construction in Belmont has doubledBelknap county is attracting new residents because of its strongBelknap county is attracting new residents because of its strong economy, lifestyle and housing economy, lifestyle and housing prices (lower than in southern parts of the state).prices (lower than in southern parts of the state).

BelmontBelmont’’s recent growth has been more in line with regional totalss recent growth has been more in line with regional totalsBelmont is primarily a middle income community.Belmont is primarily a middle income community.Belmont has a healthy mix of housing unit types, but a disproporBelmont has a healthy mix of housing unit types, but a disproportionate number of tionate number of mobile homes, and relatively few highmobile homes, and relatively few high--end homes.end homes.Recent construction has favored upper middle income single familRecent construction has favored upper middle income single family homes.y homes.Belmont has its Belmont has its ““fair sharefair share”” of low and moderate income residents and subsidy units.of low and moderate income residents and subsidy units.The sizable increase in subdivision lots applied for in 2005 andThe sizable increase in subdivision lots applied for in 2005 and approved in 2006, has approved in 2006, has subsided.subsided.Key need is to balance the inventory of lower priced housing witKey need is to balance the inventory of lower priced housing with more upper middle h more upper middle income housingincome housing——this is a pattern that has emerged in recent years and should bethis is a pattern that has emerged in recent years and should beencouraged to continue.encouraged to continue.BelmontBelmont’’s large inventory of manufactured housing (mobile homes) is a cos large inventory of manufactured housing (mobile homes) is a concern that ncern that should be addressed through standards for new parks.should be addressed through standards for new parks.