Research & Forecast Report - Colliers Multifamily Advisory ...€¦ · Q1 2017 | Multifamily RECENT...
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Accelerating success. Research & Forecast Report GREATER PHILADELPHIA * Q1 2017 | Multifamily RECENT SALES Source: AXIOMetrics. RCA, CoStar Market Survey Results and Forecasts Sequential Month Annual 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 Mar-17 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F Effective Rent Per Unit $1,326 $1,330 $1,317 $1,316 $1,329 $1,285 $1,314 $1,334 $1,374 $1,418 $1,461 $1,508 Per Sq. Ft $1.52 $1.52 $1.51 $1.51 $1.52 $1.47 $1.51 $1.53 $1.57 $1.62 $1.67 $1.73 Effective Rent Growth - Annually 2.4% 2.5% 2.8% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 2.3% 1.5% 3.1% 3.2% 3.1% 3.2% Effective Rent Growth - Quarterly 3.4% 0.3% -1.0% 0.0% Occupancy Rate 95.7% 95.4% 95.3% 95.0% 95.1% 95.7% 95.5% 95.1% 95.4% 95.6% 95.4% 95.3% Occupancy Change - Annually -0.1% -0.5% -0.2% -0.5% -0.5% 0.2% -0.2% -0.4% 0.4% 0.1% -0.1% -0.1% Occupancy Change - Quarterly 0.3% -0.3% -0.2% -0.3% Economic Concessions Concession Value $-8.35 $-11.13 $-16.13 $-19.82 $-18.59 $-8.17 $-11.93 As a % of Asking Rent -0.6% -0.8% -1.2% -1.5% -1.4% -0.6% -0.8% Date Property Name Address City Units Year Built Price in $ $/Units Mar-17 Phoenix View 495 Nutt Rd Phoenixville 92 1971 8,986,100.00 97,675 Mar-17 Imperial Towers 3801 Conshohocken Ave Philadelphia 186 1970 14,750,000.00 79,301 Feb-17 Wissahickon Apartments 5232 Laurens St Philadelphia 58 1910 3,380,000.00 58,276 Jan-17 Parc at Plymouth 134 Plymouth Rd Plymouth Meeting 398 2015 201,000,000.00 505,025 Dec-16 Penn Wynn House 2201 Bryn Mawr Ave Philadelphia 234 1960 16,350,000.00 69,872 Dec-16 The Gardens 7284 Radbourne Rd Upper Darby 200 1924 6,000,000.00 30,000 Oct-16 Stonefield at Yardley 26000 Cornerstone Dr Morrisville 216 1997 42,500,000.00 196,759 Oct-16 Lennox Apartments 236 W Walnut Ln Philadelphia 157 1930 12,700,000.00 80,892 Oct-16 Verandas 7000 Cornerstone Dr Newtown Square 250 2015 Confidential Confidential Oct-16 Charter Court at East Falls 5450 Wissahickon Ave Philadelphia 496 1950 56,000,000.00 112,903 *AXIOMetrics reports based on a combined report for the 2 submarkets: Philadelphia, PA + Montgomery County-Bucks County-Chester County-Delaware County, PA.
Transcript of Research & Forecast Report - Colliers Multifamily Advisory ...€¦ · Q1 2017 | Multifamily RECENT...
Accelerating success.
Research & Forecast Report
GREATER PHILADELPHIA*
Q1 2017 | Multifamily
RECENT SALES
Source: AXIOMetrics. RCA, CoStar
Market Survey Results and ForecastsSequential Month Annual
2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 Mar-17 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
Effective Rent Per Unit $1,326 $1,330 $1,317 $1,316 $1,329 $1,285 $1,314 $1,334 $1,374 $1,418 $1,461 $1,508
Per Sq. Ft $1.52 $1.52 $1.51 $1.51 $1.52 $1.47 $1.51 $1.53 $1.57 $1.62 $1.67 $1.73
Effective Rent Growth - Annually 2.4% 2.5% 2.8% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 2.3% 1.5% 3.1% 3.2% 3.1% 3.2%
Effective Rent Growth - Quarterly 3.4% 0.3% -1.0% 0.0%
Occupancy Rate 95.7% 95.4% 95.3% 95.0% 95.1% 95.7% 95.5% 95.1% 95.4% 95.6% 95.4% 95.3%
Occupancy Change - Annually -0.1% -0.5% -0.2% -0.5% -0.5% 0.2% -0.2% -0.4% 0.4% 0.1% -0.1% -0.1%
Occupancy Change - Quarterly 0.3% -0.3% -0.2% -0.3%
Economic Concessions
Concession Value $-8.35 $-11.13 $-16.13 $-19.82 $-18.59 $-8.17 $-11.93
As a % of Asking Rent -0.6% -0.8% -1.2% -1.5% -1.4% -0.6% -0.8%
Date Property Name Address City Units Year Built Price in $ $/Units
Mar-17 Phoenix View 495 Nutt Rd Phoenixville 92 1971 8,986,100.00 97,675
Mar-17 Imperial Towers 3801 Conshohocken Ave Philadelphia 186 1970 14,750,000.00 79,301
Feb-17 Wissahickon Apartments 5232 Laurens St Philadelphia 58 1910 3,380,000.00 58,276
Jan-17 Parc at Plymouth 134 Plymouth Rd Plymouth Meeting 398 2015 201,000,000.00 505,025
Dec-16 Penn Wynn House 2201 Bryn Mawr Ave Philadelphia 234 1960 16,350,000.00 69,872
Dec-16 The Gardens 7284 Radbourne Rd Upper Darby 200 1924 6,000,000.00 30,000
Oct-16 Stonefield at Yardley 26000 Cornerstone Dr Morrisville 216 1997 42,500,000.00 196,759
Oct-16 Lennox Apartments 236 W Walnut Ln Philadelphia 157 1930 12,700,000.00 80,892
Oct-16 Verandas 7000 Cornerstone Dr Newtown Square 250 2015 Confidential Confidential
Oct-16 Charter Court at East Falls 5450 Wissahickon Ave Philadelphia 496 1950 56,000,000.00 112,903
*AXIOMetrics reports based on a combined report for the 2 submarkets: Philadelphia, PA +
Montgomery County-Bucks County-Chester County-Delaware County, PA.
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 2www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Multifamily Absorption and Supply
Annual 1Q17 Annual Forecast
2014 2015 2016 Market National 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
Total Units Absorbed 4,222 3,454 3,874 4,139 264,921 4,763 4,736 2,788 2,699 2,777
New Supply 1,873 4,129 4,582 5,030 350,515 5,732 3,676 3,100 3,251 3,072
Inventory Growth 0.7% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.4% 2.1% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%
Market Employment and Permitting
Annual February-17 Annual Forecast
2014 2015 2016 Market National 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
Employment (000s) 1,922.3 1,945.9 1,981.6 1,987.5 144,271.0 2,008.6 2,034.5 2,058.8 2,080.7 2,099.9
Job Gain (000s) 24.3 23.6 35.7 44.1 2,352.0 27.0 25.9 24.3 21.9 19.2
Job Growth (%) 1.3% 1.2% 1.8% 2.3% 1.7% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 0.9%
Total Residential Permitting 7,788 7,746 8,203 7,906 1,101,437 9,533 11,439 11,819 9,552 10,693
Relative Change 21.3% 0.2% 6.4% 3.7% 0.3% 14.6% 19.2% -2.6% -19.2% 17.1%
Single Family Units Permitted 3,324 3,837 4,240 4,002 702,275
Relative Change -0.3% 14.8% 10.9% 11.1% 9.0%
Multifamily Units Permitted 3,905 3,281 3,224 3,162 368,649
Relative Change 105.7% -15.1% 17.2% -2.5% -12.8%
Multifamily as a % of Total 48.4% 41.8% 40.1% 40.5% 33.5%
Demand/Supply Ratio Job Gain / Total Residential Units Permitted 3.8 3.1 4.6 5.7 2.1 3.4 2.9 2.2 2.3 2.8
Job Gain / Single Family Units Permitted 9.2 8.2 11.4 15.8 3.7
Job Gain / Multifamily Units Permitted 17.2 7.7 12.9 13.2 5.6
Submarket Delivery Schedule
Pipeline Delivery Schedule Pipeline Lease Up Trend
Units Absorbed Asking Rent Effective Rent
Top Submarkets 2015 2016 2017 Total Totals PPM Per Unit PSF Per Unit PSF Bala-Cynwyd 161 276 265 702 194 17 $1,969 $2.50 $1,872 $2.37
Center City 548 1,442 2,008 3,998 569 10 $2,511 $3.10 $2,332 $2.88
North Delaware County 250 151 401 70 10 $1,932 $2.12 $1,932 $2.12
North/Frankford/Holmesburg 147 134 111 392 105 6 $1,719 $1.77 $1,715 $1.77
West Philadelphia 642 60 634 1,336 287 12 $2,643 $3.55 $2,550 $3.42
Central Chester 265 378 180 823 125 12 $1,881 $1.97 $1,881 $1.97
Moreland/Abington/Upper Dublin 354 234 588 250 22 $1,612 $1.68 $1,416 $1.47
NE Chester/Upper Montgomery County
382 533 186 1,101 443 8 $1,755 $1.69 $1,668 $1.60
Upper Bucks County 220 220 570 19 $2,115 $2.10 $2,023 $2.01
Upper/Lower Merion 338 606 1,085 2,029 201 8 $2,009 $1.91 $1,979 $1.87
Other 816 654 1,470 1,704 20 $2,110 $2.33 $2,011 $2.21
Philadelphia, PA 3,549 4,437 5,074 13,060 4,518 13 $2,023 $2.25 $1,944 $2.15
*Based on 2017 deliveries *Trend based on a trailing 12 month period
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 3www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
PIPELINESource: CoStar
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28
38
20
30
22
32
42
24
34
44
26
36
4648
19
29
39
21
31
23
33
43
25
3545
27
37
47
49
Key
Lease-Up
Under Construction
Proposed
GREATER PHILADELPHIA
DOWNTOWN PHILADELPHIA
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13
3
15
5
17
7
9
12
2
14
4
16
6
810
Downtown Philadelphia
4041
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COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 4www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
PIPELINE DETAIL
# Name Status Owner Address Market UnitsLease Up1 AKA University City Lease Up Brandywine Realty Trust 2929 Walnut St 30th Street Station 1632 Hanover North Broad - East
BuildingLease Up NB Project Owner LLC 322-344 N Broad St Avenue Of The Arts Centra 339
3 Divine Lorraine Lease Up EB Realty Management Corp 699 N Broad St Avenue Of The Arts Centra 794 The Royal Athena Lease Up O'Neill Properties Group, L.P. 600 Righters Ferry
RdBala Cynwyd 275
5 The Collins Lease Up The Brickstone Companies 1112-1128 Chestnut St Center City East 1126 NORTHxNORTHWEST –
Northwest TowerLease Up Forest City Realty Trust, Inc. 500 N 18th St Fairmount-Art Museum 286
7 Dalian on the Park Lease Up Dalian Development, LLC 501 N 22nd St Fairmount-Art Museum 2938 Queen Lane Apartments Lease Up Philadelphia Housing Authority 301 W Queen Ln Germantown 559 Indigo 301 Lease Up Realen 301 Village Dr King of Prussia/Norristow 36310 The Isle Lease Up Realen 1 Cotton St Manayunk 15011 Fairmount at Brewerytown Lease Up 1401 N 31st Llc 3717 Master St North Philadelphia West 16112 3601 Market Lease Up Southern Land Company 3601 Market St University City 36313 Phoenix Village Lease Up Phoenix Village PA, LP 131 Bridge St Upper Chester County 27514 Riverworks Lease Up South Eastern Economic
Development Company of PA45 N Main St Upper Chester County 349
15 Meridian At Eagleview Lease Up Hankin Group 659 Rice Blvd Upper Chester County 16216 Madison Providence Lease Up Equus Capital Partners, Ltd 550 Campus Dr Upper Montgomery County 30417 Inglis Gardens at Belmont Lease Up Inglis Housing Corp 2560-2566 Belmont
AveWynnefield 80
3,809
Under Construction18 The Atlantic Under Construction Post Commercial Real Estate 260 S Broad St Avenue Of The Arts South 26819 150 Monument Rd Under Construction Keystone Property Group 150 Monument Rd Bala Cynwyd 20620 East Market Phase II Under Construction 1100 Market Street Lp 1100 Market St Center City East 25021 Ludlow Under Construction 1100 Market Street LP 1100 Market St Center City East 32222 1213 Walnut Under Construction The Goldenberg Group, Inc. 1213-1219 Walnut St Center City East 32223 The Bridge On Race Street Under Construction National Investors 205 Race St Center City East 14624 401 Race Under Construction Priderock Capital Partners, LLC 401 Race St Center City East 21625 The Curtis Center Residences Under Construction Mack-Cali Realty Corporation 601 Walnut St Center City East 6326 The Beacon Under Construction Pearl Properties, LLC 1527 Walnut St Center City West 10027 19th + Chestnut Under Construction Pearl Properties, LLC 1910 Chestnut St Center City West 25028 Patriot Station at Chalfont Under Construction J.G. Petrucci Co., Inc. 131 N Main St Central Bucks County 6929 Jacksonville Station Under Construction Jerc Partners Xix Lp 375 Jacksonville Rd Central Bucks County 15130 AVE Under Construction Pennsylvania Real Estate
Investment Trust496 W Germantown Pike
Conshohocken/Plymouth Mee 265
31 51 Washington Street Under Construction Roseland Property Company 51 Washington St Conshohocken/Plymouth Mee 31032 The Alexander Under Construction The Church of Jesus Christ of
Latter-Day Saints1601 Vine St Fairmount-Art Museum 271
33 The Jacksonville Green Under Construction C2 Architecture 301 Jacksonville Rd Horsham/Willow Grove 8534 Orinoka Mills Complex Under Construction Ruth St Corp 2753 Ruth Way Kensington 5135 Canvas Under Construction The Carlyle Group 101 Bryce Ln King of Prussia/Norristow 23536 Hanover Valley Forge Under Construction The Hanover Company 300 Village Dr King of Prussia/Norristow 33937 751 Vandenburg Blvd Under Construction Bentley Homes Ltd. 751 Vandenburg Blvd King of Prussia/Norristow 32038 Drueding Multifamily
RedevelopmentUnder Construction Umbrella Factory Lp 1401 N 5th St North Philadelphia East 172
39 Liberty Square Under Construction Blackstone Development 1203 Germantown Ave
North Philadelphia East 247
40 Norman Blumberg Apartments Under Construction Philadelphia Housing Authority 2311 W Jefferson St North Philadelphia West 5741 3524 Monument St Under Construction Philadelphia Housing Authority 3524 Monument St North Philadelphia West 5542 1002-1020 N 2nd St Under Construction 1002 Owner, LP 1002-1020 N 2nd St Northern Liberties 5343 Trans Atlantic Co. Warehouse
ApartmentsUnder Construction D3 Real Estate Development 420-442 Fairmount
AveNorthern Liberties 66
Source: CoStarOver 100 Multifamily Developments Proposed for the Philadelphia area.
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 5www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
WHO WE AREOne of the largest and most
experienced teams of multifamily
specialists in the industry
Units sold since 2011
33,500MORE THAN
Group gross transaction value in since 2011
$2.3B
Dedicated Multifamily Professionals & Advisors
50MORE THAN
Expansive geographic footprint
20COVERING OVER
STATES
WE CAN HELPAs an investor in multifamily properties, you need a firm that provides experience, broad reach and the ability to market an asset no matter how challenging the economic environment. You need a team that specializes in your market you need The East Region Multifamily Advisory Group.
Colliers International has one of the largest and most experienced teams in the industry, strategically located in key markets throughout North America. Our combination of market dominance, expertise, and singular focus, make us uniquely successful in helping our clients achieve their disposition objectives.
How are we able to bring together the skills and tools necessary to complete challenging assignments? Our East Region Multifamily Advisory Group is connected by purpose and focus. Our team is dedicated to sharing information on market opportunities, capital sources and buyers/sellers to achieve the best results for our clients.
PIPELINE DETAIL, CONTINUED
# Name Status Owner Address Market UnitsUnder Construction
44 Vue32 Under Construction Drexel University 3201 Race St Powelton 16445 Haven at Atwater Under Construction Johnson Development Associates,
Inc.1000 Terrain St Upper Chester County 300
46 Westside Under Construction Longview Development LP 1107 Rapps Dam Rd Upper Chester County 17147 3795 Schuylkill Rd Under Construction Whitehall Lp 3795 Schuylkill Rd Upper Chester County 5048 Riverworks Under Construction South Eastern Economic
Development Company of PA45 N Main St Upper Chester County 247
49 Maybrook Under Construction Jefferson Apartment Group 325 Penn Rd Wynnewood 2506,071
Total Units 9,880
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 6www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
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AT YOUR SERVICE
Will MathewsPRINCIPAL | EAST REGION
INSTITUTIONAL CLIENT GROUP
[email protected] +1 404 877 9285
Jeff AlgattSENIOR VICE PRESIDENT | PHILADELPHIA
[email protected] +1 610 557 0180
Payton HerschbergerASSOCIATE | EAST REGION
[email protected] +1 404 574 1061
