Report of the Tropical Moored Buoy Implementation Panel to the 20 th Session of the Data Buoy...
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Transcript of Report of the Tropical Moored Buoy Implementation Panel to the 20 th Session of the Data Buoy...
Report of the Tropical Moored Buoy Implementation Panel
to the
20th Session of the Data Buoy Cooperation Panel
October 18-22, 2004Chennai, India
Nuku Hiva, Marquesas Islands
Present Tropical Moored Arrays
• Primary Measurements: Wind, AirT, RH, SST, 10 Water Temperatures 20 m to 500 m
• Enhanced Measurements: Rain, SWR, LWR, BP, Salinity, Currents
Current ConditionsSST is warmer than normal in western and central PacificTrade Winds are weaker than normal in western Pacific
Current Conditions
Thermocline slopes down to west because of trade wind forcing.
East-west slope is weaker in the western and central Pacific because trades are weaker.
Warm subsurface temperature anomalies across much of the basin (elevated heat content--a predictor of El Niño).
TWO-YEAR EVOLUTION
Evolution: April-Present
QuickTime
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEPOctober 7, 2004
Synopsis: Warm-episode conditions are expected to continue into early 2005.• Positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies greater than +0.5°C persisted in the central and western equatorial Pacific, and expanded eastward into the eastern equatorial Pacific during September 2004
• …periods of weaker-than-average easterlies that initiated eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin waves, which contributed to a deeper-than-average oceanic thermocline and an increase in surface and subsurface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific
• The NOAA operational definition for El Niño [a three-month running mean of the Niño 3.4 index, greater than or equal to +0.5°C] was satisfied for the period June-August 2004, with a value of +0.7°C.
Niño3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Index
Average=0.7°C
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP ENSO DISCUSSION (Continued)
• Based on the recent evolution of oceanic and atmospheric conditions and on a majority of the statistical and coupled model forecasts, it seems most likely that SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region will remain positive, at or above +0.5°C, through early 2005.
•Expected global impacts include drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia (through early 2005), northern and northeastern Australia (November 2004-February 2005), and southeastern Africa (November 2004-March 2005).
Niño3.4 Region
El Niño Advisory
TAO/TRITON STATUS
PIRATA STATUS
2005 TAO PLANS
• Measure surface salinity from all ATLAS moorings• Upgrade 5 moorings for full flux measurements• NDBC officially takes management responsibility
for TAOTransition through 2007
2005 focus on data delivery
PMEL staff provides operational support during transition
2005 PIRATA PLANS
• Upgrade 3 moorings for full flux measurements• No dedicated French cruise for 2005!• PIRATA-10 meeting, December 2004
Assess impact on understanding and prediction of climate variability
Propose expansions
Identify resources
Indian Ocean Plans
There is an increasingly organized international effort to develop an Indian Ocean component to the Global Ocean Observing system to support climate studies: Compelling unanswered scientific questions;
Potential societal benefits (improved prediction of the monsoon rainfalls and teleconnections);
One of the most poorly sampled regions of the world ocean in terms of in situ observations;
Growing investments from India (2 new ships & major buoy program initiative planned) and Japan (new Asian Monsoon Observing Initiative @ $300M over 10 yrs);
Summit on Earth Observations (July 2003).
Draft Strategy for Indian Ocean Moored Buoy Array
First Session of CLIVAR/GOOS Indian Ocean Panel23-27 February 2004
Pune, India
RV Sagar Kanya CruiseOctober-November 2004
3 ATLAS & 1 ADCP Mooring
1.5°S, 0°, 1.5°N along 80.5°E
ATLAS enhanced with current meters, salinity, rainfall, SW; in addtion, LW & atmospheric pressure on central mooring
Expect to continue and expand with Indian (NIO, NIOT, DOD/NCAOR, etc) and other institutions.
RV Sagar Kanya CruiseOctober-November 2004
• 41 Day Cruise• 5 days for ATLAS• In collaboration with
NIO (Dr. V.S.N. Murty) and NCAOR (Dr. M. Sudhakar)
4 0 4 5 5 0 5 5 6 0 6 5 7 0 7 5 8 0 8 5 9 0 9 5 1 0 0
Longitude (°E )
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Latit
ude
(°N
)
IN D IA
TAO m oorings
OOS m ooringsADCP
Proposed locations of the PMEL TAO and ADCP moorings (red dots)along with the existing Indian OOS mooring locations (blue open circles).Also proposed are the hydrographic stations between 2°N and 2°Sat 0.5° interval along 80.5°E.