Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu Green Growth: Powering Innovation...

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu

Green Growth: Powering Innovation

Daniel M. Kammen

Co-Director, Berkeley Institute of the EnvironmentEnergy and Resources Group & Goldman School of Public Policy

Department of Nuclear EngineeringUniversity of California, Berkeley

Materials online at: http://rael.berkeley.edu

UCLA/Lake Arrowhead Summit, October 15, 2007


Global Energy Supply by Fuel

Fossil Energy

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 2005 2030

1.6%

1.6%

1.3%

1.7%

1.6%

Oil

Gas

Coal

Other

MBDOEAverage Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030

A massive carbonBaseline & inertia

Other Energy

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1980 2005 2030

1.6%

1.0%

2.2%

Nuclear

Hydro/Geo

Biomass / Other

MBDOE

Wind & Solar20.5%

1.4%

Biofuels 7.2%

Sufficient opportunitiesexist

Wind, Solar & Biofuels

0

1

2

3

4

5

1980 2005 2030

8.8%

12.5%

7.2%

Wind

Biofuels

MBDOE

8.4%Solar

Fastest growth, smallest sectors


Renewable Energy Portfolio Standards

24 states + DC, and counting

Solar water heating eligible

CA: 20% by 2010

State Goal

PA: 18%¹ by 2020

NJ: 22.5% by 2021

CT: 10% by 2010

MA: 4% by 2009 + 1% annual increase

WI: requirement varies by utility; 10% by 2015 Goal

IA: 105 MW

MN: 10% by 2015 Goal +Xcel mandate of

1,125 MW wind by 2010

TX: 5,880 MW by 2015

*NM: 10% by 2011AZ: 15% by 2025

NV: 20% by 2015

ME: 30% by 2000;10% by 2017 goal - new RE

State RPS

*MD: 7.5% by 2019

* Increased credit for solar or other customer-sited renewablesPA: 8% Tier I (renewables)

HI: 20% by 2020

RI: 15% by 2020

CO: 10% by 2015

DC: 11% by 2022

NY: 24% by 2013

MT: 15% by 2015

*DE: 10% by 2019

IL: 8% by 2013

VT: RE meets load growth by 2012*WA: 15% by 2020

OR: 25% by 2025


-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Gre

en

jo

bs c

rea

ted

(th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f p

ers

on

ye

ars

)

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Re

ne

wa

ble

en

erg

y g

en

era

ted

(T

Wh

)

Green job creation

California

Pennsylvania

New YorkTexas

Illinois

Nevada

Other 18 states with an RPS

plus Federal RPS

Federal + state RPS yields +348,000 jobs in 2025


Best Research-Cell EfficienciesBest Research-Cell EfficienciesEf

ficie

ncy

(%)

Universityof Maine

Boeing

Boeing

Boeing

BoeingARCO

NREL

BoeingEuro-CIS

200019951990198519801975

NREL/Spectrolab

NRELNREL

JapanEnergy

Spire

No. CarolinaState University

Multijunction ConcentratorsThree-junction (2-terminal, monolithic)Two-junction (2-terminal, monolithic)

Crystalline Si CellsSingle crystalMulticrystalline

Thin Film TechnologiesCu(In,Ga)Se2

CdTeAmorphous Si:H (stabilized)

Emerging PVDye cellsOrganic cells(various technologies)

Varian

RCA

Solarex

UNSW

UNSW

ARCO

UNSWUNSW

UNSWSpire Stanford

Westing-house

UNSWGeorgia TechGeorgia Tech Sharp

NREL

Spectrolab

NREL

MasushitaMonosolar Kodak

KodakAMETEK

Photon Energy

UniversitySo. Florida

NRELNREL

NRELCu(In,Ga)Se2

14x concentration

NREL

United Solar

United Solar

RCA

RCARCA

RCA RCARCA

Spectrolab

Solarex12

8

40

16

20

24

28

32

36

University ofLausanne

University ofLausanne

Siemens

2005

Kodak UCSBCambridge

Groningen

University LinzBerkeley

Princeton

UniversityLinz

California Japan

2005 Annual PV Installations 50 MW 290 MW

Average Cost for Residential System $8.8/Wac $7.4/Wac

Average Cost Reduction from 99-04 5.2%/year 8.9%/year


Roll on PV cells.

Solar photovoltaic installations of thin film cells, in Germany


Green job creationMore renewables = more jobs

Construction, Manufacturing,

Installation

O&M and fuel

processing

Construction, Manufacturing and Installation

(person-yr/MWp)

Operation and Maintenance (jobs/MWp)

Fuel extraction and

processing (person-yrs/TWh)

PV 1 710 140 25 21% 32 0.3 0 1

PV 2 660 550 25 21% 30 1.0 0 3

Wind 1 50 30 25 35% 4 0.1 0 1

Wind 2 290 30 25 35% 22 0.1 0 2

Biomass - high estimate 50 280 25 85% 9 0.4 220 1

Biomass - low estimate 50 40 25 85% 9 0.04 40 1

Coal 30 80 40 80% 9 0.2 60 1

Gas 30 80 40 85% 9 0.1 70 4

[3] Greenpeace, 2001[4] Kammen, from REPP, 2001; CALPIRG, 2003; BLS, 2004

Sources[1] REPP, 2001[2] EWEA/Green-peace, 2003

Energy Technology

Jobs(total person-yrs/TWh)

Source of Numbers

Equipment lifetime (years)

Capacity Factor

Employment Components

Plug In Partners / e.g. CalCars.org


PHEV Off-Peak Electricity Demand (One million PHEVS in CA)

• Additional load from PHEVs is small• PHEVs could be charged mostly via base-load filling during

evenings and nights, when electricity costs are low

Model: IPM


UNIVERSIT Y O F CAL IF ORN IABERK ELE Y

REP ORT OF THERENEWAB LE AND APP ROPRIATE EN ERGYLABORA TO RY

Putting Re newa bles t o Work :How Many J obs C an theClean Energy Indus tryGenerate?

by

Daniel M. Ka mmenKa mal K apadiaMatthias Fripp

of theEnergy and Resource s Group &the Goldman Sc hool of Pu blic Po licy

APRIL 13, 2004

Report availableat:

Study reviews:

• 13 studies of job creation

• 3 - 5 timesMore jobs per dollar invested in the renewables sector than in fossil fuels


An Alternative Fuel is Not Necessarily a Low-Carbon Fuel, but it

can be

FT (Coa

l)

Gasoli

ne (S

hale)

Gasoli

ne (T

ar S

ands

)

FT (Coa

l CCD)

Gasoli

ne

Ethan

ol (C

orn

Coal)

Ethan

ol (T

oday

)

Ethan

ol (C

orn

NG)

Biodies

el

Ethan

ol (C

orn

Biomas

s)

Ethan

ol (C

ellulo

se)

Ethan

ol (C

orn

Biomas

s CCD)

Ethan

ol (C

ellulo

se C

CD)

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1

lbs

CO

2/g

al g

aso

lin

e eq

uiv

alen

t

FT (Coal)

Gasoline (Shale)

Gasoline (Tar Sands)

FT (Coal CCD)

Gasoline

Ethanol (Corn Coal)

Ethanol (Today)

Ethanol (Corn NG)

Biodiesel

Ethanol (Corn Biomass)

Ethanol (Cellulose)

Ethanol (Corn Biomass CCD)

Ethanol (Cellulose CCD)


Land Required to Satisfy Current U.S. Mobility Demand

1,200600200 400 800 1,0000

New Land Required (million acres)

CRP Land (30 MM)

LDVHDV

U.S. Cropland (400 MM)

II. Corn stover (72%) -50 Feasibility of stover utilization enhanced by rotation

I. Soy switchgrass or large biomass soy -10

Agricultural integrationEarly-cut switchgrass produces more feed protein/acrethan soy; similar benefits from “large biomass soy”

Vehicle efficiency 2.5X↑ 165

Advanced processing 41091 gal Geq/ton

1,030Status quo 36 gal Geq/ton, current mpg, no ag. integration, 5 tons/acre*yr

Biomass yield 2.5X↑ 65

III. Other Winter cover crops, other residues, increased productivityof food crops, increased production on under-utilized land…

U.S. mobility demand, the largest per capita in the world, could be met from land now used for agriculture while maintaining food production (L. Lynd)

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.eduMiscanthus Late Summer

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.eduWinter Stand Recovered After Ice-Storm


Renewable Energy Portfolio Standards

24 states + DC, and counting

Solar water heating eligible

CA: 20% by 2010

State Goal

PA: 18%¹ by 2020

NJ: 22.5% by 2021

CT: 10% by 2010

MA: 4% by 2009 + 1% annual increase

WI: requirement varies by utility; 10% by 2015 Goal

IA: 105 MW

MN: 10% by 2015 Goal +Xcel mandate of

1,125 MW wind by 2010

TX: 5,880 MW by 2015

*NM: 10% by 2011AZ: 15% by 2025

NV: 20% by 2015

ME: 30% by 2000;10% by 2017 goal - new RE

State RPS

*MD: 7.5% by 2019

* Increased credit for solar or other customer-sited renewablesPA: 8% Tier I (renewables)

HI: 20% by 2020

RI: 15% by 2020

CO: 10% by 2015

DC: 11% by 2022

NY: 24% by 2013

MT: 15% by 2015

*DE: 10% by 2019

IL: 8% by 2013

VT: RE meets load growth by 2012*WA: 15% by 2020

OR: 25% by 2025


Solar & Distributed Generation

Provisions in RPS Policies

PA: 0.5% solar PV by 2020

TX: 500 MW non-wind

NM: triple credit for solar electric

AZ: 4.5% DG by 2025

NV: 1% solar by 2015;2.4 to 2.45 multiplier for PV

MD: double credit for solar electric

CO: 0.4% solar electric by 2015

DC: 0.386% solar electric by 2022

NY: 0.1542% customer-sited by 2013

DE: triple credit for solar electric

Solar water heating counts towards solar set-aside

WA: double credit for DG

DG: Distributed Generation

NJ: 2.12% solar electric by 2021

CA: 3,000 MW or more via SB1 & Million solar roofs


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

R&D

(billi

on 20

02$s

)DefenseSpaceHealthEnergyGeneral ScienceOther

Federal R&D Investments, 1955 - 2004

Margolis & Kammen, Science, 1999

Kammen and Nemet (2005) “Reversing the incredible shrinking energy R&D budget,” Issues in Science & Technology,

Fall, 84 – 88. And Nemet, dissertation, 2007

Patents and R&D Funding Correlated


If you think US public sector energy R&D funding is doing poorly …

Kammen and Nemet (2005) “Reversing the incredible shrinking energy R&D budget,” Issues in Science & Technology,

Fall, 84 – 88.

-

2

4

6

8

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

R&

D (

2002

$b

) Public energy R&D

Private energy R&D


Gasoline

Air travel

Gasoline

Auto manufacturing

Auto services

public trans.

airlinespublic trans.

Electricity

Naturalgas

Other fuels

Construction

Financingwater & sewage

electricitynatural gasother fuels

Meat

Eating out

Fruit & veg.

Snack food

cereals

DairyAlcohol & tobacco

Clothing

Household equip.

entertainment.cleaning supplies.

furniture.

healthcaregiving

education

Transportation Housing Food Goods Services

Summary of GHG Emissions for Typical U.S. Household (LEAPS Results) 50 Metric tons of CO2 equivalent gases

IndirectDirect44%

56%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Total


Global CO2 Abatement Opportunities

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu Green Growth: Powering Innovation...

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