Ren$er&States&and&The&Arab&Spring - Syracuse · PDF fileRen$er&States&and&The&Arab&Spring:&...
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Ren$er States and The Arab Spring: Implica(ons of oil economies on revolu(onary movements in the MENA region
Jonathan Polo Interna-onal Rela-ons & Economics 2013 B.A. Candidate
Introduction For many years, scholars have asked themselves why the Arab world was one of the only major regions in the en$re world throughout all of modern history where authoritarian regimes have managed to defy global trends to democra$ze. What is the background and founda$on of authoritarian structures’ sustainability that is par$cular to Middle Eastern regimes? With the excep$on of Israel, there is not a single stable democracy in the Middle East. The developmental theory states that there should be a posi$ve correla$on between the level of electoral contesta$on or availability of opposi$on par$es and a country’s rela$ve wealth; Throughout the MENA region although, we find that that is not even close to the truth. In reality there exists some of the largest economies in the world per capita alongside some of the most repressive governments in the world. This theory is one of the strongest and best-‐corroborated findings in all of social science yet doesn’t seem to apply to the Arab world. Why is that reality deviates so far from theory? I think that the ren$er state theory could provide some insights into the apparent unassailability of the developmental theory and the MENA region.
Hypothesis I argue that, in addi$on to many other factors, the availability of rent revenues primarily hindered the democra$za$on of Arab states throughout history and the propaga$on of insubordina$on during the Arab Spring. Ahead I will outline the mul$ple ways in which oil revenues played and con$nue to take on a pivotal role in sustaining social order in the Arab States.
Research Question Why did the Arab Spring succeed in bringing some governmental changes in some countries while not in others and how much, if at all, did the poli$cal environment of ren$er states influence the outcomes?
Outcomes of The Arab Spring
Arab Spring Outcomes Rela$ve To Oil Revenue Food Prices and Arab Anger
Energy Retail Prices in 2010
Energy Subsides Youth Unemployment
Methodology Carrot and S*ck Theory: I argue that the governments of several Middle Eastern countries use their revenues from their oil and gas sectors to depoli$cize strategic sectors of society by providing numerous concessions for their cons$tuents to indulge in (carrots). While at the same $me using the engrossing oil revenues to keep popula$ons in order with well funded, all encompassing security and intelligence agencies (s$cks)
Data Analysis The Welfare State: Oil revenues have permiXed the crea$on of vast welfare states since the introduc$on of oil extrac$ng technology to Middle Eastern states. According to data by the World Bank, the MENA region has the highest subsidy rates per capita in the world with energy subsidies totaling $280 billion (51%) in 2011. Some countries more than others although are struggling to con$nue paying for these subsides. Egypt in par$cular was readdressing its 35% food subsidy part of its fiscal budget prior to the start of demonstra$ons in Tahrir Square. Similarly, across the region, countries where food and energy prices where rising and governments without large rents to pay for rising subsidy costs saw higher levels of unrest during the Arab Spring. Youth Unemployment: Middle East and North Africa has the highest youth unemployment rate in the world, with about one youth in four without a job (26.5%). Between 1970 and 2010 the popula$on of the region nearly tripled from 128 million to 359 million people. Although ren$er states did not necessarily have an advantage in providing more employment for this increasing amount of youth, who according to the Revolu$onary Theory are more likely to insinuate insubordina$on, only in countries with high youth unemployment and low oil revenues were Arab Spring movements successful in bringing about poli$cal change. Military Expenditure: According to World Bank es$mates the MENA region has been spending a significantly higher percentage of its GDP on its military than has the rest of the world, averaging 5.5% of GDP between 2001 and 2010, compared with the world average of only 2.5%. The highest numbers although interes$ngly coming from the highest oil producers in 2010 with Saudi Arabia accoun$ng for half, at $45.2 billion, the UAE spending $16.1 billion or 17%, while Kuwait spent $4.6bn or 5%.
Conclusions Although it is almost impossible to come to the conclusion that some kind of casual factor exists between ren$er states and revolu$onary success or the quelling of popular uprisings there are s$ll several interes$ng correla$ons that are important to highlight. This research provides substan$al evidence in support of the ren$er state theory. But I argue that instead the theory should be relieved of the burden of having to be a comprehensive explana$on for the totality of a system, and instead be used simply to par$ally explain how poli$cs operate, thus gaining much greater u$lity. Of course the success or failure of the Arab Spring was implicated through other important factors like the increased use of social media, the increased demand for human rights and limited corrup$on. But these factors, although, do not make the importance of rents to repressive governments any less crucial to understand.