Regional Economic Conditions NY Federal Reserve

7/28/2019 Regional Economic Conditions NY Federal Reserve

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Regional Economic Press Briefing

J une 27, 2013

The views expressed here are those of the presenters and do not necessarily represent the

views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.


2/29

Regional Economic ConditionsJason Bram, Senior Economist


3/29

Overview

Regional economy on the rebound New York City, Long Island on a solid growth trajectory

New J ersey, Upstate New York, Fairfield County growing moderately

Puerto Rico appears to be back in a downturn

Update on sectors that have lagged State & local government job cuts continue in some but not all of the region

New York Citys brisk recovery continues to get little help from Wall St.

Construction & housing had weighed down recovery but are now reviving

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 2


4/29

Regional Economic ActivityIndex of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI)

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Puerto Rico Government Development BankNote: The Puerto Rico composite index is based on a different methodology than the indexes produced by the FRBNY. 3

85

90

95

100

105

110

Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13

New YorkState

New Jersey

New YorkCity

Puerto Rico

May

Nov09

Oct09

Dec10

Nov05

Jan08

Apr08

Mar08

AprShading indicates NBER recession

Index (December 2007 = 100)


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Job Change During Recession and RecoveryLocal Peak to Local Trough and Local Trough to May 2013

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moodys Economy.comNote: Northern NJ includes the Edison and Newark metro divisions and the Bergen-Hudson-Passaic special BLS area. Downstate NYincludes the Poughkeepsie and Kingston MSAs, the Putnam-Rockland-Westchester special BLS area, New York City, and Long Island.Upstate NY includes the Buffalo, Rochester, Albany, Syracuse, Binghamton, Ithaca, Elmira, and Glens Falls MSAs. 4

Downstate NY

Upstate NY

Fairf ield County

Northern NJ

United States

-3.9%

-3.5%

-7.2%

-6.5%

-6.3%

6.3%

1.9%

4.5%

3.3%

4.9%

-230,300

-79,000

-30,300

-193,600

-8,736,000

362,100

42,400

17,800

92,400

6,317,000

Local Recovery (Through May)Local Recession


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HurricaneSandy

Total EmploymentSeasonally Adjusted Index

5

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106


UnitedStates

New YorkCity

May


Shading indicates NBER recession

LongIsland

Upstate NY

Fairfield

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moodys Economy.com

New Jersey


7/29

State & Local Government EmploymentPercent Change Over Past Two Years and Two Previous Years

6Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moodys Economy.com

-0.4%

-1.4%

2.0%

-2.1%

-0.8%

-1.6%

-3.6%

-4.7%

-2.2%

-2.5%

New York City

Connecticut

New Jersey

New York

United StatesMay2009-May2011

May2011-May2013


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New York City Securities EmploymentSeasonally Adjusted Levels

7Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moodys Economy.com

3,500

3,540

3,580

3,620

3,660

3,700

3,740

3,780

3,820

160

165

170

175

180

185

190

195

200

Jun09 Dec09 Jun10 Dec10 Jun11 Dec11 Jun12 Dec12 Jun13

SecuritiesEmployment

(left axis)

Total EmploymentMinus Securities

(right axis)

May

Thousands Thousands


9/29

HurricaneSandy

Construction EmploymentSeasonally Adjusted Index

8

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105


UnitedStates

New Jersey

New YorkState

Fairfield

May



Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moodys Economy.com


10/29

HurricaneSandy

Regional Home Price TrendsCoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted

Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales); Seasonally adjusted by FRBNY staffNote: NYC Metro refers to the New York-White Plains-Wayne NY-NJ Metro Division. 9

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Mar06 Sep06 Mar07 Sep07 Mar08 Sep08 Mar09 Sep09 Mar10 Sep10 Mar11 Sep11 Mar12 Sep12 Mar13

UnitedStates

NewJersey

New YorkState

NYC Metro

FairfieldApr

Index (U.S. Peak of March 2006 = 100)



11/29

Conclusion

Economic recovery has continued across the tri-state region

New York metro region snapped back quickly from Sandy

Drag from housing finally appears to be behind us



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Are Recent College Graduates Finding Good Jobs?Richard Deitz, Assistant Vice President


13/29


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How Bad is Unemployment andUnderemployment for Recent College Graduates?


15/29

Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.Note: College graduates are those with a BA degree or higher; recent college graduates are those aged 22-27; figures exclude those currently enrolled in school. 14

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Working Age

Population

All CollegeGraduates

Apr2013

RecentGraduates

Shading indicates NBER recessions

Unemployment Rate

U.S. Unemployment Rates12-Month Moving Average


16/2915

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Age22

Age23

Age24

Age25

Age26

Age27

Age28

Age29

Age30

Age31

Age32

Age33

Age34

Age35

Unemployment Rate

2009-11

2000

U.S. Unemployment Rate by AgeCollege Graduates

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey.Note: College graduates are those with a BA degree or higher; figures exclude those currently enrolled in school.


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College Graduate Underemployment

Classify jobs into two categories based on informationfrom the Department of Labor:

Bachelors degree required:

e.g., pharmacist, social worker, software developer

Bachelor s degree not required:

e.g., retail salesperson, food server, electrician,health care technician

Graduates working in these jobs are consideredunderemployed



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20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

All CollegeGraduates

RecentGraduates

2012

AnnualShading indicates NBER recessions

Underemployment Rate

U.S. Underemployment Rates

Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, March Supplement; U.S. Department of Labor, O*NET.Note: College graduates are those with a BA degree or higher; recent college graduates are those aged 22-27; figures exclude those currently enrolled in school.


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18

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Age22

Age23

Age24

Age25

Age26

Age27

Age28

Age29

Age30

Age31

Age32

Age33

Age34

Age35

Underemployment Rate

2009-11

2000

U.S. Underemployment Rate by AgeCollege Graduates

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey; U.S. Department of Labor, O*NET.Note: College graduates are those with a BA degree or higher; figures exclude those currently enrolled in school.


20/29

How Have Recent College Graduates inOur Region Fared?


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20

46% 49% 44% 46%

6%

5%

7%7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

United States Upstate NY Downstate NY Northern NJ

Underemployment

Unemployment

Total52%54%

51%54%

Regional Unemployment & UnderemploymentRecent College Graduates, Share of Labor Force, 2009-11

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey; U.S. Department of Labor, O*NET.Note: Recent college graduates are those with a BA degree or higher aged 22-27; figures exclude those currently enrolled in school.


22/29

Are Recent College Graduates in Some MajorsHaving Better Outcomes Than Others?


23/29

Employment Outcomes by MajorRecent College Graduates, Share of Labor Force, 2009-11

22

Leisure & Hospitality

Agricul ture & Nat Resources

Technologies

Communications

Liberal Arts

Business

Social Sciences

Sciences

Architecture & Construction

Math & Computers

Health

Education

Engineering

63%

57%

55%

54%

52%

50%

48%

43%

32%

29%

22%

22%

20%

4%

5%

6%

6%

8%

6%

7%

6%

8%

6%

3%

4%

5%

% in Jobs WhereBA Degree Requi red

UnemploymentRate

% in Jobs Where BADegree Not Requi red

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey; U.S. Department of Labor, O*NET.Note: Recent college graduates are those with a BA degree aged 22-27; figures exclude those currently enrolled in school and those with a graduate degree.

33%

38%

38%

40%

40%

44%

45%

51%

60%

65%

75%

75%

75%


24/29

Average Annual Wages by MajorRecent Graduates, Adjusted for Demographics, 2009-11

23

$0k $10k $20k $30k $40k $50k $60k

Education

Liberal Arts

SciencesCommunications

Leisure & Hospitality

Agricul ture & Nat Resources

Social Sciences

Architecture & Construction

Technologies

Health

Math & Computers

Business

Engineering

BA Degree Requi redBA Degree Not Requi red

High SchoolDiploma Only

AssociatesDegree Only

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey; U.S. Department of Labor, O*NET.Note: Estimated using data for those 27 and under; figures exclude part-time workers and those with a graduate degree.

$55k

$51k

$51k

$49k

$48k

$46k

$44k

$42k

$42k

$41k

$40k

$38k

$35k


25/29

Summary

Relatively high unemployment and underemploymentis not unusual for recent college graduates as it takestime to transition into the labor market.

However, evidence suggests young college workershave been struggling more in recent years.

Majors that provide technical training and are gearedtoward growing parts of the economy have tended to

fare better.Regardless of major, those with college degrees still

tend to have better labor market outcomes thanthose without.



26/29

Appendix


27/29

26Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey.

Agricu lture and Natural Resources Agriculture Environment and

Natural Resources

Architecture and Construct ion

Architecture Construction Services

Business

Business

Communications

Communications

Education

Education Administrationand Teaching

Engineering

Engineering

Health

Medical and HealthSciences and Services

Leisure and Hospitality Cosmetology Services

and Culinary Arts

Physical Fitness, Parks,Recreation, and Leisure

Liberal Arts

Area, Ethnic, andCivilization Studies

English Language, Literature,and Composition

Fine Arts History

Liberal Arts and Humanities

Library Science

Linguistics and Foreign Languages Philosophy and Religious Studies

Theology and Religious Vocations

Math and Computer Sciences

Computer andInformation Sciences

Mathematics and Statistics

Sciences Biology and Life Sciences

Physical Sciences

Social Sciences

Criminal J usticeand Fire Protection

Family and ConsumerSciences

Law Psychology Public Affairs, Policy,

and Social Work

Social Sciences

Technologies

Communication Technologies

Electrical and MechanicRepairs and Technologies

Engineering Technologies

Nuclear, Industrial Radiology,and Biological Technologies

Transportation Sciencesand Technologies

Major Field GroupingsBased on the American Community Survey


28/29

HurricaneSandy

Total EmploymentSeasonally Adjusted Index

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moodys Economy.com 27

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106


UnitedStates

New Jersey

Puerto Rico

New YorkState

New YorkCity



May


29/29

New York City Securities EmploymentSeasonally Adjusted Levels

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

2,500

2,750

3,000

3,250

3,500

3,750

4,000

1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

SecuritiesEmployment

(left axis)

Total EmploymentMinus Securities

(right axis)

Shading indicates timebetween securities and

total employment troughs

Thousands Thousands

May

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