Vulnerability and Restoration Assessment of Masonry Structural Systems
Reducing Vulnerability of Restoration Projects to Climate Change
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Transcript of Reducing Vulnerability of Restoration Projects to Climate Change
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Reducing Vulnerability of Restoration Projects to
Climate Change
Crystal BallroomThursday, October 13
1:30-2:30 p.m.
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Jennie Hoffman
EcoAdapt
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Climatic change is affecting all ecosystems, and will continue to do
so for centuries, so…
• We need to incorporate climatic change into long-term planning – Minimize risk of wasting time, money, and
effort
– Maximize likelihood of success
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Trend CertaintyWhat this means for ecosystems
and peopleWhat this means for your work
Air temperature
Very High
Rain
High
Lake temperature
High
Growing season
High
Lake level
? Medium
Great Lakes climate impacts worksheet
But varies by season and region
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Trend CertaintyWhat this means for ecosystems
and peopleWhat this means for your work
Air temperature
Very High
Drier summers; increased drought likelihood; deadly heat waves; species range changes (including disease-causing organisms!)
Rain
High
More runoff and flooding in certain seasons; risk of transfer of invasive spp to new places; possible seasonal dilution of pollution
Lake temperature
HighGreater risk of harmful algal blooms; some species favored over others; altered toxicity
Growing season
HighMore ag productivity, unless droughts and floods win out; benefits some species over others
Lake level
? Medium
Phragmites world; tough infrastructure issues; remobilization of lakebed pollutants
Great Lakes climate impacts worksheet
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HydrologicHydrologic& Vegetation& VegetationModelsModels
Climate modelsClimate models
DataDataEcosystem Ecosystem responsesresponses
??
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HydrologicHydrologic& Vegetation& VegetationModelsModels
Climate modelsClimate models
DataDataEcosystem Ecosystem responsesresponses
??EconomicsEconomics
Laws, Laws, Policies,Policies,
InstitutionsInstitutions
Societal Societal responseresponse
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All climate models say things will get warmer; they disagree on just how much warmer
Models disagree on whether things get wetter or drier overall
??
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Scenario 1: It rains hard
all day
Scenario 4:It rains hard,
but only briefly
Scenario 3:It rains lightly
Scenario 2: it doesn’t rain
Core actions/strategies
Contingent actions/strategies
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Situation 1
•Your pet is sick
•9 of 10 vets say it will die without treatment
•The treatment is established, effective, has few side effects and is affordable.
Do you opt for:•Giving it the drug•Not giving it the drug•Trying an herbal remedy that worked for a friend’s pet
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Situation 2
•Your pet is sick
•4 of 10 vets say it will die without treatment
•The treatment is established, effective, has few side effects and is affordable.
Do you opt for:•Giving it the drug•Not giving it the drug•Trying an herbal remedy that worked for a friend’s pet
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Situation 3
•Your pet is sick
•9 of 10 vets say it will die without treatment
•There is no proven treatment, but there’s an expensive experimental drug with uncertain risks and effectiveness.
Do you opt for:•Giving it the drug•Not giving it the drug•Trying an herbal remedy that worked for a friend’s pet
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Situation 4
•Your pet is sick
•4 of 10 vets say it will die without treatment
•There is no proven treatment, but there’s an expensive experimental drug with uncertain risks and effectiveness.
Do you opt for:•Giving it the drug•Not giving it the drug•Trying an herbal remedy that worked for a friend’s pet
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Situation 5
•Your child is sick
•9 of 10 doctors say she will die without treatment
•There is no proven treatment, but there’s an expensive experimental drug with uncertain risks and effectiveness.
Do you opt for:•Giving her the drug•Not giving her the drug•Trying an herbal remedy that worked for a friend’s child
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Is Your Coastal Restoration Project
Climate-Smart?Some Guidelines for the
Great Lakes
download a copy at:
http://www.nwf.org/en/Global-Warming/~/media/PDFs/Global%20Warming/Climate-Smart-Conservation/FINAL%20Restoring%20the%20Great%20Lakes%20Coastal%20Future%202011.ashx
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Climate-Smart Planning Framework
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1. Identify restoration goals and targets
GLRI Principal Actions:• Improve aquatic ecosystem resiliency
• Enhance wetlands, wetland associated uplands, high priority coastal, upland, and inland habitat
• Maintain, improve, enhance populations of native species
• Restore habitat functioning in AOCs
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2. Identify restoration project approaches
Reduce existing stressors
Improve terrestrial/aquatic connectivity
Protect key ecosystem features
Maintain and improve diversity
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3. Assess vulnerability to climate change
2. Sensitivity3. Exposure4. Adaptive capacity5. Determine vulnerability
Tools include: NatureServe Vulnerability Index, Climate Wizard, NOAA Digital Coast, NSPECT
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Training Opportunities
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Training Course• Collaboration among NWF, FWS, NPS, and NOAA• Next course: November 15-19, 2011 in Anchorage,
AK - Space available!• Upcoming in Ohio – stay tuned!
For more resources on Vulnerability Assessments or to Register for next course visit
• http://training.fws.gov/CSP/Resources/climate_change/vulnerability.html
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Training Opportunities (con’t)
Safeguarding Wildlife from Climate Change Web Conference Series– similar to a graduate seminar, last about 1 hour, and
feature an interactive question-and-answer session– topics include: everything from community-based
adaptation to species conservation in a landscape context
Find upcoming webinars and archived webinars here:
• http://training.fws.gov/CSP/Resources/climate_change/description.html
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4. Identify climate-smart management options
Strategies to reduce sensitivity Strategies to
reduce exposure
Strategies to enhance adaptive capacity
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5. Select and implement management options
Prioritize options by importance/urgency
Prioritize options by likely benefits/performance
Prioritize options by costs/feasibility
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6. Monitor, review, and revise
Incorporate new science
Evaluate effectiveness of management efforts
Revisit one or more of the previous steps
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Emily Whittaker, Yellow Dog Watershed Preserve
Photo by Alexis Raney.Photo by Alexis Raney.
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Yellow Dog Yellow Dog Watershed Watershed PreservePreserve
•Working to Working to incorporate incorporate climate climate considerations considerations into mine permit into mine permit conditions.conditions.Top photo by Bill KinjorskiTop photo by Bill Kinjorski
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Onondaga Creek Conservation Council
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Planting Day
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West Grand Boulevard
Collaborative
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Considering Climate isn’t new work to be done, it is a new way of working
• Think about how your work could be impacted by the effects of climate change
• Assess the information you have• Brainstorm how you can incorporate climate
adaptation activities based on what you know about climate change
• Start taking action, monitor your effectiveness, and talk with others to ensure your work will provide the desired impact
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Climate Adaptation Grants Program
Projects to protect and restore wetlands; On-the-ground restoration activities that incorporate climate adaption and include an
action component to create permanent change Advocating for low-impact solutions to community stormwater issues; Participation in land use planning and zoning that engages climate related
considerations; Participation in watershed planning to introduce climate related components; Watch-dogging and participating in the development, implementation, and
enforcement of local, state, provincial, and federal aquatic habitat protection regulations as they relate to climate;
Non-partisan voter education, voter registration, and candidate forums; Advocating for naturally functioning river and coastal ecosystems; Reducing polluted runoff; and Launching special initiatives or creating unique opportunities to strengthen citizen
involvement in aquatic habitat protection and restoration related to climate adaptation.
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Jill Ryan, Executive Director231.348.8200 [email protected]
View our Climate RFP at:www.freshwaterfuture.org/grants
Thank you Kresge Foundation for your support and EcoAdapt for your expertise!
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Spread the word!Wireless password:
HOW11
Conference website: Conference.healthylakes.org
Email us photos, comments, tweets or video & we will post online: [email protected]
On Twitter? Use the hashtag: #healthylakes